View source for Sanders–Trump voters

{{short description|American voter group}}
{{Use American English|date=November 2020}}
{{Use mdy dates|date=October 2020}}
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In the United States, '''Sanders–Trump voters''', also known as '''Bernie–Trump voters''', are Americans who voted for [[Bernie Sanders]] in the [[2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries|2016]] or [[2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries]] (or both), but who subsequently voted for [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican Party]] nominee [[Donald Trump]] in the general election. In the [[2016 U.S. presidential election]], these voters composed an estimated 6%-12% of Sanders supporters.<ref name=":1" />

The extent to which these voters have been decisive in Trump's victory and their effect on the [[2020 U.S. presidential election]] have been a subject of debate. Compared to other Sanders voters, these Sanders–Trump voters are less likely to identify as Democrats and have more [[Social conservatism in the United States|conservative]] views on social and gender issues.

== 2016 election ==

=== Studies ===
The [[Cooperative Congressional Election Study]] (CCES), an election survey of about 50,000 people, found that 12% of Sanders voters voted for Trump in 2016.<ref name=":0">{{Cite news|title=Here's How Many Bernie Sanders Supporters Ultimately Voted For Trump|url=https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds|access-date=October 4, 2020|newspaper=NPR|date=August 24, 2017|language=en|archive-date=October 3, 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201003023459/https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds|url-status=live|last1=Kurtzleben|first1=Danielle}}</ref> In the states of [[2016 United States presidential election in Michigan|Michigan]], [[2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]], and [[2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin|Wisconsin]], the number of Sanders–Trump voters was more than two times Trump's margin of victory in those states.<ref name=":3" /> Some analysts, such as [[The Economist|''Economist'']] data journalist [[G. Elliott Morris]], have argued that these voters disproportionately impacted the 2016 election.<ref name=":1">{{Cite news|last=Sides|first=John|date=August 24, 2017|title=Did enough Bernie Sanders supporters vote for Trump to cost Clinton the election?|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/24/did-enough-bernie-sanders-supporters-vote-for-trump-to-cost-clinton-the-election/|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201003070629/https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/24/did-enough-bernie-sanders-supporters-vote-for-trump-to-cost-clinton-the-election/|archive-date=October 3, 2020|access-date=|newspaper=[[The Washington Post]]}}</ref><ref>{{Cite tweet|number=900164807961305088|user=gelliottmorris|title=Sanders -> Trump voters... WI: 51k MI: 47k PA: 116k Trump win margin... WI: 22k MI: 10k PA: 44k ¯\_(ツ)_/¯|author=G. Elliott Morris|date=August 23, 2017|author-link=G. Elliott Morris}}</ref> Others, including political scientist [[Brian Schaffner]], who served as a co-Principal Investigator in the CCES survey,<ref>{{Citation|last=Ansolabehere, Stephen (Harvard University); Schaffner, Brian F. (University Of Massachusetts Amherst)|title=CCES Common Content, 2016|date=2017|url=https://dataverse.harvard.edu/citation?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/GDF6Z0|publisher=Harvard Dataverse|doi=10.7910/dvn/gdf6z0|access-date=2020-10-04|archive-date=October 29, 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201029084817/https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi%3A10.7910%2FDVN%2FGDF6Z0|url-status=live}}</ref> have said that Trump's margin of victory was small enough that Sanders–Trump voters were merely one voting bloc out of many that could have decided the outcome, and that "defections" between a primary and a general election are quite common.<ref name="stein">{{Cite web|last=Stein|first=Jeff|date=August 24, 2017|title=The Bernie voters who defected to Trump, explained by a political scientist|url=https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/24/16194086/bernie-trump-voters-study|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201004051907/https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/24/16194086/bernie-trump-voters-study|archive-date=October 4, 2020|access-date=October 4, 2020|website=Vox|language=en}}</ref><ref name=":0" /> By every estimate, [[Obama-Trump voters]]—voters who had previously voted for [[Barack Obama]] but voted for Trump in 2016—vastly outnumber Sanders-to-Trump voters, accounting for about 14% of Trump's total vote.

The 2016 VOTER survey conducted by [[YouGov]], which interviewed 8,000 respondents in July and December 2016, found that 12% of those who preferred Sanders in the primary preferred Trump in the general election. The RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey, which interviewed the same group of around 3,000 respondents six times during the campaign, found that 6% of those who reported supporting Sanders in March reported supporting Trump in November. A November 2016 poll conducted by [[ABC News (United States)|ABC News]] and ''[[The Washington Post]]'' only days before the general election showed 8% of Sanders supporters intended to vote for Trump or had voted for him.<ref name=":2">{{Cite web|last=Sparks|first=Grace|date=March 5, 2019|title=The Trump-Bernie voters from 2016 are nearly non-existent now|url=https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/05/politics/bernie-trump-voters/index.html|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201010232446/https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/05/politics/bernie-trump-voters/index.html|archive-date=October 10, 2020|access-date=2020-10-04|website=CNN}}</ref> Unlike the CCES survey, these surveys did not validate the turnout of those surveyed,<ref name=":1" /> while CCES was limited to examining only voters whose participation in both the primaries and general election could be verified via voter file data, which excluded those who voted in caucuses or party-run primaries.

=== Analysis ===
In an interview with [[Vox (website)|''Vox'']], Schaffner highlighted the fact that Sanders–Trump voters were much less likely to identify as Democrats than Sanders voters who voted for Clinton or a third-party candidate.<ref name="stein" /> According to Schaffner, about half of the voting bloc identified themselves as Republicans or independents.<ref name=":3">{{Cite web|title=Could Sanders voters help Trump win the White House again?|url=https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/sanders-voters-helped-trump-win-white-house-could-they-do-n1145306|access-date=October 4, 2020|website=NBC News|date=March 8, 2020 |language=en|archive-date=October 3, 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201003015703/https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/sanders-voters-helped-trump-win-white-house-could-they-do-n1145306|url-status=live}}</ref> Data from the VOTER survey showed that only 35% of Sanders–Trump voters voted for Democratic incumbent [[Barack Obama]] in the [[2012 United States presidential election|2012 election]]; in contrast, 95% of Sanders-Clinton voters voted for Obama in 2012.<ref name=":1" />

Compared to typical Democratic Party voters, Sanders–Trump voters were much more [[Social conservatism in the United States|conservative]] on racial and social issues. Over 40% of Sanders–Trump voters disagreed that white people have advantages, compared to less than 10% of Sanders voters who voted for Clinton.<ref name="stein" /> Compared to the average Sanders voter, Sanders–Trump voters tend to be [[White Americans|white]] and older. The CCES survey showed that only between 17% and 18% of Sanders–Trump voters identified themselves as ideologically [[Modern liberalism in the United States|liberal]], with the rest either identifying as moderate or conservative.<ref name="stein" /> In the VOTER survey, Sanders–Trump voters rated minority groups less favorably than Sanders-Clinton voters; this included [[Hispanic and Latino Americans|Latinos]], [[Islam in the United States|Muslims]] and [[LGBT in the United States|LGBT people]].<ref name=":1" /> According to both the CCES and VOTER surveys, Sanders–Trump voters' views on trade policy are largely similar to typical Democrats, despite Sanders' relative opposition to free trade deals.<ref name=":1" /><ref name="stein" />

Jeff Stein of ''Vox'' suggested that many Sanders–Trump voters may have been [[Reagan Democrat]]s who were white and pro-union.<ref name="stein" /> Political scientist [[John M. Sides]] suggested that many Sanders–Trump voters were unlikely to be inclined to support Clinton in the first place.<ref name=":1" /> Writing in [[RealClearPolitics]], Tim Chapman, executive director of conservative advocacy group [[Heritage Action]], suggested that both Trump and Sanders had strong [[Populism|populist]] appeal, especially to working-class voters in the [[Heartland (United States)|heartland]], despite their starkly different policies.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Chapman|first=Tim|date=March 7, 2019|title=The Rise of the Trump-Sanders Voter|url=https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/03/07/the_rise_of_the_trump-sanders_voter_139674.html|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200907022746/https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/03/07/the_rise_of_the_trump-sanders_voter_139674.html|archive-date=September 7, 2020|access-date=2020-10-04|website=RealClearPolitics}}</ref> In 2020, Schaffner suggested that Sanders' appeal to Sanders–Trump voters in 2016 was due to his outsider status, his populist policies, and his targeting of issues which affected groups of people Trump attempted to court in his 2016 campaign.<ref name=":3" />

== 2020 election ==
Again, Sanders–Trump voters were cited as a potential deciding factor in the [[2020 United States presidential election]]. According to a February 2020 [[NBC News]]/[[The Wall Street Journal|''Wall Street Journal'']] poll, about 7% of respondents who said they were enthusiastic about or comfortable with Sanders in the 2020 election voted for Trump in 2016. In March 2020, Schaffner suggested that if Sanders were the Democratic nominee in the 2020 general election, Sanders would be able to target some but not all of those who voted Sanders–Trump in 2016. [[Philippe Reines]], a longtime Clinton adviser, suggested that whether this group of voters would vote for Democratic nominee [[Joe Biden]] in the general election depended on Sanders' efforts to demonstrate his support for Biden.<ref name=":3" />

There was no consensus between pre-election forecasters on the potential effect of Sanders–Trump voters on the 2020 election. In March 2019, Grace Sparks of [[CNN]] suggested that Sanders–Trump voters were unlikely to be significant in 2020, pointing to early polling which showed little overlap in support between Sanders and Trump.<ref name=":2" /> According to a March 2020 ABC News/''Washington Post'' poll, 15% of Sanders voters (corresponding to 6% of leaned Democrats) planned to vote for Trump, while 80% planned to vote for Biden.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Sinozich|first=Sofi|date=29 March 2020|title=Biden consolidates support, but trails badly in enthusiasm: Poll|url=https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-consolidates-support-trails-badly-enthusiasm-poll/story?id=69812092|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201004111525/https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-consolidates-support-trails-badly-enthusiasm-poll/story?id=69812092|archive-date=October 4, 2020|access-date=2020-10-04|website=ABC News|language=en}}</ref> A March 2020 [[Morning Consult]] poll showed that although Sanders supporters were less likely to vote for Biden than the average Democrat, they were also less likely to "defect" to Trump compared to 2016.<ref>{{Cite web|date=2020-03-17|title=Sanders Supporters Look Less Likely to Defect This Year Than in 2016|url=https://morningconsult.com/2020/03/17/sanders-voters-loyalty-2020/|access-date=2020-10-04|website=Morning Consult|language=en-US|archive-date=August 17, 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200817123334/https://morningconsult.com/2020/03/17/sanders-voters-loyalty-2020/|url-status=live}}</ref> Citing exit polls on the [[2020 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary]], ''[[Washington Examiner]]'' columnist [[Timothy P. Carney]] suggested that Sanders voters were demographically similar to Trump voters.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Carney|first=Timothy P.|date=2020-03-01|title=The Sanders/Trump voters: No church, no degree, yes to revolution|url=https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/the-sanders-trump-voters-no-church-no-degree-yes-revolution|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200310003701/https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/the-sanders-trump-voters-no-church-no-degree-yes-revolution|archive-date=March 10, 2020|access-date=2020-10-04|website=Washington Examiner|language=en}}</ref>

== See also ==
{{Portal|United States|Politics|2010s|2020s}}
* [[Anti-establishment]]
* [[Horseshoe theory]]
* [[List of Democrats who opposed the Hillary Clinton 2016 presidential campaign]]
* [[Obama–Trump voters]]
* [[Populism in the United States]]
* [[Reagan Democrat]]

== References ==
{{reflist}}

{{United States presidential election, 2016}}
{{United States presidential election, 2020}}
{{Bernie Sanders}}
{{Donald Trump}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Sanders-Trump voters}}
[[Category:2016 United States presidential election|*]]
[[Category:2020 United States presidential election|*]]
[[Category:2010s in American politics]]
[[Category:2020s in American politics]]
[[Category:Donald Trump]]
[[Category:Bernie Sanders|Trump voters]]
[[Category:Donald Trump 2016 presidential campaign]]
[[Category:Bernie Sanders 2016 presidential campaign]]
[[Category:Donald Trump 2020 presidential campaign]]
[[Category:Bernie Sanders 2020 presidential campaign]]
[[Category:Political extremism in the United States]]
[[Category:Political terminology of the United States]]
[[Category:Populism in the United States]]
[[Category:Voting in the United States]]
[[Category:Crossover voting]]