View source for True-believer syndrome

{{Short description|Continued belief in a debunked theory}}
'''True-believer syndrome''' is an informal or rhetorical term coined by [[M. Lamar Keene]] in his 1976 book ''The Psychic Mafia''. He began using the term to refer to people who continued to believe in a [[paranormal phenomenon]] or event, even after it had successfully been debunked or proven to have been staged.<ref name=mafia>Keene, Lamar M. (1976). ''The Psychic Mafia''. St. Martin's Press; New York</ref><ref name=spraggett1>Keene and Spragett, p.151</ref> Keene considered it to be a [[cognitive disorder]],<ref name=sumer1>{{cite book |author=Davis, W. Sumer |title=Just Smoke and Mirrors: Religion, Fear and Superstition in Our Modern World |isbn=978-0-595-26523-7 |pages= 11–12|year=2003 }}</ref><ref name=skepdic>{{cite web |url=http://skepdic.com/truebeliever.html |title=true believer syndrome |access-date= 2007-08-19 |work=Skeptic's Dictionary}}</ref> and regarded it as being a key factor in the success of many [[mediumship|psychic mediums]].<ref name=spraggett1/>

The term "true believer" had earlier been used by [[Eric Hoffer]] in his 1951 book ''[[The True Believer]]'' to describe the psychological roots of fanatical groups.

True-believer syndrome could be considered a type of [[belief perseverance]] for paranormal phenomena.

==Psychology==
In an article published in ''[[Skeptical Inquirer]]'', psychologist Matthew J. Sharps and his colleagues analyze and dissect the psychology of True Believers and their behavior after the predicted apocalypse fails to happen.  Using the [[2012 phenomenon|2012 Mayan apocalypse prophecy]] as an example, and citing several other similar cases, Sharps contributes four psychological factors that compel these people to continue their belief (or even stronger belief) despite the conflicted reality.<ref name=sharps>{{cite journal|last1=Sharps|first1=Matthew|last2=Liao|first2=Schuyler|last3=Herrera|first3=Megan|title=Remembrance of Apocalypse Past|journal=Skeptical Inquirer|volume=38|issue=6|pages=54–58|year=2014|url=http://www.csicop.org/si/show/remembrance_of_apocalypse_past/}}</ref>
* ''Subclinical dissociative tendencies'': While not suffering from mental illness, people with subclinical [[dissociation (psychology)|dissociative]] tendencies have a higher inclination to experience disconnection with immediate physical reality and propensity to see highly improbable things with enhanced credulity.  Such subclinical dissociation is usually associated with [[paranormal]] thinking.<ref name=sharps/>
* ''[[Cognitive dissonance]]'': The more one invests in a belief, the more value one will place in this belief and, as a  consequence, be more resistant to facts, evidence or reality that contradict this belief.  Some of the True Believers in the Keech case in the example below had left their spouses, jobs and given up their possessions to prepare to board the alien spacecraft.  When the world did not end, cognitive dissonance-reducing activity ([[Cognitive dissonance#Belief disconfirmation|belief disconfirmation]] response) provided an enhancement of their beliefs and outlet for their heavy investment and discomfort in front of reality.<ref name=festinger/><ref name=sharps/>
* ''[[Gestalt psychology|Gestalt processing]]'': In the continuum in human information processing, people with Gestalt processing will consider a concept without detailed analysis (as opposed to feature-intensive thinking) and accept the idea as a whole relatively uncritically.  Sharps suggests a relationship between dissociative tendencies and gestalt processing.   People who incline to believe paranormal activities will be more likely to credulously entertain the ancient Mayan prophecies whose details most people know little about.<ref name=sharps/>
* ''[[Availability heuristic]]'': Under the mental shortcut of availability heuristic, people place more importance and give more weight to a belief when examples related to the idea are more readily recalled, most often because they are recent information and latest news.<ref name="autogenerated3">{{cite journal|last1=Tversky|first1=Amos|last2=Kahneman|first2=Daniel|title=Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability|journal=Cognitive Psychology|volume=5|issue=2|year=1973|pages=207–232|issn=0010-0285|doi=10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9}}</ref>  The information of Mayan prophecies has been abundantly available, especially in the media, before the expected apocalyptic date.  People's judgments tend to bias toward this latest news, particularly those with dissociative tendency toward supernatural and favor gestalt processing.<ref name=sharps/>

==Examples==

===M. Lamar Keene and "Raoul"===
In his book ''The Psychic Mafia'', Keene told of his partner, a [[psychic]] [[mediumship|medium]] named "Raoul". Some in their congregation still believed that Raoul was genuine, even after Keene openly admitted that he was a fake. Keene wrote "I knew how easy it was to make people believe a lie, but I didn't expect the same people, confronted with the lie, would choose it over the truth. ... No amount of logic can shatter a faith consciously based on a lie."<ref name=mafia/><ref>Keene and god,  pp.141–151</ref>

===José Alvarez and "Carlos"===
According to ''[[The Skeptic's Dictionary]]'', an example of this syndrome is evidenced by an event in 1988 when stage magician [[James Randi]], at the request of an Australian news program, coached stage performer José Alvarez to pretend he was channelling a two-thousand-year-old spirit named "Carlos". Even after it was revealed to be a fictional character created by Randi and Alvarez, many people continued to believe that "Carlos" was real.<ref name=skepdic/> Randi commented: "no amount of evidence, no matter how good it is or how much there is of it, is ever going to convince the true believer to the contrary."<ref name=abc1>ABC News (1998-10-06) "The Power of Belief: How Our Beliefs Can Impact Our Minds", ABC News (2007-06-04)</ref>

===Marian Keech and "Clarion"===
In the book ''[[When Prophecy Fails]]'', [[Leon Festinger|Festinger]] and his colleagues observed a fringe group led by "[[When Prophecy Fails#Overview|Marian Keech]]" (researchers' [[Pseudonym#Concealing identity|pseudonym]]) who believed that the world would be destroyed on December 21, 1954, and the true believers would be rescued by aliens on a spaceship to a fictional planet, Clarion.  When nothing happened, the group believed that their devotion convinced God to spare the world and they became even more feverish in [[proselytizing]] their belief.   This is one of the first cases that led Festinger to form the theory of [[cognitive dissonance]].<ref name=festinger>{{cite book | last =Festinger | first =Leon | author-link =Leon Festinger |author-link2=Henry Riecken|author2=Henry W. Riecken |author3=Stanley Schachter|author-link3=Stanley Schachter | title =When Prophecy Fails: A Social and Psychological Study of a Modern Group that Predicted the Destruction of the World | publisher =University of Minnesota Press | year =1956 | isbn  = 978-1-59147-727-3}}</ref>

===Harold Camping's 2011 end times prediction===
{{Main|2011 end times prediction}}
American Christian radio host [[Harold Camping]] claimed that the [[Rapture]] and [[Last Judgment|Judgment Day]] would take place on May 21, 2011,<ref>{{cite news |title=A Conversation With Harold Camping, Prophesier of Judgment Day |url=http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/05/a_conversation_with_harold_cam.html |newspaper=New York Magazine |date=May 11, 2011 |access-date=October 13, 2011}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Harold Camping is at the heart of a mediapocalypse |url=https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2011-may-21-la-me-rapture-20110521-story.html |newspaper=Los Angeles Times |date=May 21, 2011 |access-date=October 13, 2011|author-link1=Christopher Goffard |first=Christopher |last=Goffard}}</ref> and that the end of the world would take place five months later on October 21, 2011, based on adding the 153 fish of John 20 to May 21.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.lamblion.us/2011/03/harold-camping-end-time-scenario.html |title=The Christ in Prophecy Journal: Harold Camping: End-Time Scenario |publisher=Lamblion.us |date=2011-03-08 |access-date=2019-07-15}}</ref><ref name=autogenerated1>{{cite web |url = http://www.ebiblefellowship.com/may21/index.html |title = May 21, 2011 – Judgment Day!; October 21, 2011 – The End of the World |publisher = Ebiblefellowship.com |date = May 21, 1988 |access-date =November 29, 2010| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20101028050127/http://ebiblefellowship.com/may21/index.html| archive-date= October 28, 2010 | url-status= live}}</ref> Camping, who was then president of the [[Family Radio]] Christian network, claimed the Bible as his source and said May 21 would be the date of the Rapture and the day of judgment "beyond the shadow of a doubt".<ref>{{cite news |title = End of Days in May? Believers enter final stretch |url = https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna40885541 |author=Associated Press |newspaper=NBC News |date = January 23, 2011 |access-date =May 9, 2011}}</ref> Camping suggested that it would occur at 6&nbsp;pm local time, with the Rapture sweeping the globe time zone by time zone,<ref name=Amira>{{cite news |last = Amira |first = Dan |title = A Conversation With Harold Camping, Prophesier of Judgment Day |url = http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/05/a_conversation_with_harold_cam.html |access-date =May 21, 2011 |newspaper = [[New York (magazine)|New York]] |date = May 11, 2011| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20110518220328/http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/05/a_conversation_with_harold_cam.html| archive-date= May 18, 2011 | url-status= live}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |url=http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/scocca/archive/2011/05/16/countdown-to-armageddon-maybe-the-world-will-end-friday-night-or-sunday-morning.aspx |title=Scocca : Countdown to Armageddon: Maybe the World Will End Friday Night (or Sunday Morning) |access-date=2018-07-02 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110602015818/http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/scocca/archive/2011/05/16/countdown-to-armageddon-maybe-the-world-will-end-friday-night-or-sunday-morning.aspx |archive-date=2011-06-02 |url-status=dead }}</ref> while some of his supporters claimed that around 200 million people (approximately 3% of the world's population) would be "raptured".<ref name=JudgmentDay>{{cite web |title = Judgment Day |url = http://www.familyradio.com/graphical/literature/judgment/judgment.html |publisher = [[Family Radio]] |access-date = May 16, 2011 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20110608095448/http://www.familyradio.com/graphical/literature/judgment/judgment.html |archive-date = June 8, 2011 |url-status = dead }}</ref> Camping had previously claimed that the Rapture would occur in September 1994. Following the failure of the prediction, media attention shifted to the response from Camping and his followers. On May 23, Camping amended that May 21 had been a "spiritual" day of judgment, and that the physical Rapture would occur on October 21, 2011, simultaneously with the destruction of the universe by God.<ref name="G&M">[https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/americas/radio-host-says-rapture-actually-coming-in-october/article2032209/ Radio host says Rapture actually coming in October] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110529011135/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/americas/radio-host-says-rapture-actually-coming-in-october/article2032209/ |date=2011-05-29 }} – ''Globe and Mail''. May 23, 2011. Retrieved May 23, 2011.</ref><ref name="autogenerated2">{{cite news| url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13516796 | work=BBC News | title=Rapture: Harold Camping issues new apocalypse date | date=24 May 2011 | access-date=September 23, 2011}}</ref> However, on October 16, Camping admitted to an interviewer that he did not know when the end would come.<ref name="retire">{{cite news |title=Harold Camping Exclusive: Family Radio Founder Retires; Doomsday 'Prophet' No Longer Able to Work |url=http://global.christianpost.com/news/harold-camping-exclusive-family-radio-founder-retires-doomsday-prophet-no-longer-able-to-work-59222/ |newspaper=The Christian Post |date=October 24, 2011 |access-date=October 25, 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111026172548/http://global.christianpost.com/news/harold-camping-exclusive-family-radio-founder-retires-doomsday-prophet-no-longer-able-to-work-59222/ |archive-date=October 26, 2011 |url-status=dead }}</ref>

==See also==
{{Portal|Psychology}}
{{div col}}
* {{annotated link|Belief perseverance}}
* {{annotated link|Cognitive dissonance}}
* {{annotated link|Confirmation bias}}
* {{annotated link|Conspiracy theory}}
* {{annotated link|Critical thinking}}
* {{annotated link|Delusion}}
* {{annotated link|Denialism}}
* {{annotated link|Disconfirmed expectancy}}
* {{annotated link|Escalation of commitment}}
* {{annotated link|Fanaticism}}
* {{annotated link|List of cognitive biases}}
* {{annotated link|Magical thinking}}
* {{annotated link|Partisan (politics)}}
* {{annotated link|Purity spiral}} 
* {{annotated link|Sunk cost}}
* {{annotated link|Superstition}}
* {{annotated link|Viruses of the Mind}}
* {{annotated link|Wishful thinking}}

{{div col end}}

==References==
===Notes===
{{Reflist}}

===Bibliography===
* Keene, M. Lamar and Spraggett, Allen (1997) ''The Psychic Mafia'', Prometheus Books, {{ISBN|1-57392-161-0}}

===Further reading===
* [[Harriet A. Hall|Hall, Harriet A.]], (2006). "Teaching Pigs to Sing: An Experiment in Bringing Critical Thinking to the Masses", ''[[Skeptical Inquirer]]'', Vol 30, #3, May/June 2006, pp.&nbsp;36–39
* Lalich, Janja. ''Bounded Choice: True Believers and Charismatic Cults''. [[University of California Press]], 2004. {{ISBN|0-520-23194-5}}
* [[Chet Raymo|Raymo, Chet]]. ''Skeptics and True Believers: The Exhilarating Connection Between Science and Religion''. Walker Publishing, 1998. {{ISBN|0-8027-1338-6}}
* Singer, Barry and Benassi, Victor A., (1980). "Fooling Some of the People All of the Time", ''Skeptical Inquirer'', Vol 5, #2, Winter 1980/81, pp.&nbsp;17–24

{{pseudoscience}}
{{biases}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:True-Believer Syndrome}}
[[Category:Barriers to critical thinking]]
[[Category:Belief]]
[[Category:Cognitive inertia]]
[[Category:Paranormal]]