Market trend - Revision history

Pbritti: Rmv unnecessary instructional phrase; add cn tag

2024-10-14T00:49:54Z

Rmv unnecessary instructional phrase; add cn tag

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	When an extremely high proportion of investors express a bearish (negative) sentiment, some analysts consider it to be a strong signal that a market bottom may be near.<ref>{{cite news \| url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB122652105098621685 \| title=Trying to Plumb a Bottom \| first=Mark \| last=Hulbert \| author-link=Mark Hulbert \| work=[[The Wall Street Journal]] \| date=November 12, 2008 \| url-access=subscription}}</ref> [[David Hirshleifer]] observes a trend phenomenon that follows a path starting with under-reaction and culminating in overreaction by investors and traders.		When an extremely high proportion of investors express a bearish (negative) sentiment, some analysts consider it to be a strong signal that a market bottom may be near.<ref>{{cite news \| url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB122652105098621685 \| title=Trying to Plumb a Bottom \| first=Mark \| last=Hulbert \| author-link=Mark Hulbert \| work=[[The Wall Street Journal]] \| date=November 12, 2008 \| url-access=subscription}}</ref> [[David Hirshleifer]] observes a trend phenomenon that follows a path starting with under-reaction and culminating in overreaction by investors and traders.

	Indicators that measure investor sentiment may include:		Indicators that measure investor sentiment may include:{{cn\|date=October 2024}}

	* The Investor Intelligence Sentiment Index evaluates market sentiment through the Bull-Bear spread (% of Bulls − % of Bears). A close-to-historic-low spread may signal a bottom, indicating a potential market turnaround. Conversely, an extreme high in bullish sentiment and an extreme low in bearish sentiment may suggest a market top or an imminent occurrence. ~~It's worth noting that this~~ contrarian measure is more reliable for coincidental timing at market lows than at market tops.		* The Investor Intelligence Sentiment Index evaluates market sentiment through the Bull-Bear spread (% of Bulls − % of Bears). A close-to-historic-low spread may signal a bottom, indicating a potential market turnaround. Conversely, an extreme high in bullish sentiment and an extreme low in bearish sentiment may suggest a market top or an imminent occurrence. This contrarian measure is more reliable for coincidental timing at market lows than at market tops.
	* The [[American Association of Individual Investors]] (AAII) sentiment indicator is often interpreted to suggest that the majority of the decline has already occurred when it gives a reading of minus 15% or below.		* The [[American Association of Individual Investors]] (AAII) sentiment indicator is often interpreted to suggest that the majority of the decline has already occurred when it gives a reading of minus 15% or below.
	* Other sentiment indicators include the Nova-Ursa ratio, the Short Interest/Total Market Float, and the [[put/call ratio]].		* Other sentiment indicators include the Nova-Ursa ratio, the Short Interest/Total Market Float, and the [[put/call ratio]].

92.14.60.106: /* Market top */ Removed the tag for 'Weasel Words'. The top of a market is simply when prices are highest in a given time frame - it is by definition vague. Any attempt to further refine the definition would sacrifice accuracy for (spurious) precision.

2024-07-18T11:28:37Z

Market top: Removed the tag for 'Weasel Words'. The top of a market is simply when prices are highest in a given time frame - it is by definition vague. Any attempt to further refine the definition would sacrifice accuracy for (spurious) precision.

← Previous revision		Revision as of 11:28, 18 July 2024
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	===Market top===		===Market top===
	A market top (or market high) is usually not a dramatic event. The market has simply reached the highest point that it will, for some time.~~{{Weasel inline\|date=January 2022}}~~ This identification is retrospective, as market participants are generally unaware of it when it occurs. Thus prices subsequently fall, either slowly or more rapidly.		A market top (or market high) is usually not a dramatic event. The market has simply reached the highest point that it will, for some time. This identification is retrospective, as market participants are generally unaware of it when it occurs. Thus prices subsequently fall, either slowly or more rapidly.

	According to [[William O'Neil]], since the 1950s, a market top is characterized by three to five distribution days in a major [[stock market index]] occurring within a relatively short period of time. Distribution is identified as a decline in price with higher volume than the preceding session.<ref>{{cite web \|url=https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/know-this-sell-rule-when-distribution-days-pile-up-in-the-stock-market/ \|author=David Saito-Chung \|title=Know This Sell Rule: When Distribution Days Pile Up In The Stock Market \|date=8 November 2016 \|publisher=Investors.com}}</ref>		According to [[William O'Neil]], since the 1950s, a market top is characterized by three to five distribution days in a major [[stock market index]] occurring within a relatively short period of time. Distribution is identified as a decline in price with higher volume than the preceding session.<ref>{{cite web \|url=https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/know-this-sell-rule-when-distribution-days-pile-up-in-the-stock-market/ \|author=David Saito-Chung \|title=Know This Sell Rule: When Distribution Days Pile Up In The Stock Market \|date=8 November 2016 \|publisher=Investors.com}}</ref>

CommonsDelinker: Removing Indices_NIFTY_50_(PERIOD_1_Jan_2020_to_19_May_2020)_with_labels.png; it has been deleted from Commons by Krd because: No permission since 4 June 2024.

2024-06-12T04:24:15Z

Removing Indices_NIFTY_50_(PERIOD_1_Jan_2020_to_19_May_2020)_with_labels.png; it has been deleted from Commons by Krd because: No permission since 4 June 2024.

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	====Examples====		====Examples====
	[[File:Indices NIFTY 50 (PERIOD 1 Jan 2020 to 19 May 2020) with labels.png\|thumb\|right\|Impact of [[COVID-19]] on Indian stock markets, [[NIFTY 50]] Index (1 Jan 2020 to 19 May 2020)]]
	Some examples of a bear market include:		Some examples of a bear market include:
	* The [[Wall Street Crash of 1929]], which erased 89% (from 386 to 40) of the [[Dow Jones Industrial Average]]'s [[market capitalization]] by July 1932, marking the start of the [[Great Depression]]. After regaining nearly 50% of its losses, a longer bear market from 1937 to 1942 occurred in which the market was again cut in half.		* The [[Wall Street Crash of 1929]], which erased 89% (from 386 to 40) of the [[Dow Jones Industrial Average]]'s [[market capitalization]] by July 1932, marking the start of the [[Great Depression]]. After regaining nearly 50% of its losses, a longer bear market from 1937 to 1942 occurred in which the market was again cut in half.

Brawlio at 05:04, 8 June 2024

2024-06-08T05:04:39Z

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	\|Market analysis}}		\|Market analysis}}

	A '''''market trend''''' is a perceived tendency of the [[financial market]]s to move in a particular direction over time.<ref name=course>{{cite book \| url= https://books.google.com/books?id=gtrLvlojNzIC&pg=PA91 \| title= The Stock Market Course \| first1=George \| last1=Fontanills \| first2=Tommy \| last2=Gentile \|publisher=[[Wiley (publisher)\|Wiley]] \| page=91 \| date=2001\| isbn=9780471036708 }}</ref> Analysts classify these trends as ''secular'' for long time-frames, ''primary'' for medium time-frames, and ''secondary'' for short time-frames.<ref name=Edwards>{{cite book \| url= https://books.google.com/books?id=cVJmDwAAQBAJ \| first1= Robert D. \| last1= Edwards \| first2=John \| last2=McGee \| first3=W. H. C. \| last3=Bessetti \| title=Technical Analysis of Stock Trends \| publisher=[[CRC Press]] \| date=July 24, 2018 \| isbn=978-0-8493-3772-7 }}</ref> Traders attempt to identify market trends using [[technical analysis]], a framework which characterizes market trends as predictable price tendencies within the market when price reaches [[support and resistance]] levels, varying over time.		A '''market trend''' is a perceived tendency of the [[financial market]]s to move in a particular direction over time.<ref name=course>{{cite book \| url= https://books.google.com/books?id=gtrLvlojNzIC&pg=PA91 \| title= The Stock Market Course \| first1=George \| last1=Fontanills \| first2=Tommy \| last2=Gentile \|publisher=[[Wiley (publisher)\|Wiley]] \| page=91 \| date=2001\| isbn=9780471036708 }}</ref> Analysts classify these trends as ''secular'' for long time-frames, ''primary'' for medium time-frames, and ''secondary'' for short time-frames.<ref name=Edwards>{{cite book \| url= https://books.google.com/books?id=cVJmDwAAQBAJ \| first1= Robert D. \| last1= Edwards \| first2=John \| last2=McGee \| first3=W. H. C. \| last3=Bessetti \| title=Technical Analysis of Stock Trends \| publisher=[[CRC Press]] \| date=July 24, 2018 \| isbn=978-0-8493-3772-7 }}</ref> Traders attempt to identify market trends using [[technical analysis]], a framework which characterizes market trends as predictable price tendencies within the market when price reaches [[support and resistance]] levels, varying over time.

	A future market trend can only be determined in hindsight, since at any time prices in the future are not known. Past trends are identified by drawing lines, known as trendlines, that connect price action making higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend, or lower lows and lower highs for a downtrend.		A future market trend can only be determined in hindsight, since at any time prices in the future are not known. Past trends are identified by drawing lines, known as trendlines, that connect price action making higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend, or lower lows and lower highs for a downtrend.

Tony1: Script-assisted style fixes

2024-05-11T01:33:18Z

Script-assisted style fixes

BD2412: clean up spacing around commas and other punctuation fixes, replaced: ,i → , i

2024-04-09T00:31:32Z

clean up spacing around commas and other punctuation fixes, replaced: ,i → , i

← Previous revision		Revision as of 00:31, 9 April 2024
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	\|Market analysis}}		\|Market analysis}}

	A '''''market trend''''' is a perceived tendency of the [[financial market]]s to move in a particular direction over time.<ref name=course>{{cite book \| url= https://books.google.com/books?id=gtrLvlojNzIC&pg=PA91 \| title= The Stock Market Course \| first1=George \| last1=Fontanills \| first2=Tommy \| last2=Gentile \|publisher=[[Wiley (publisher) \|Wiley]] \| page=91 \| date=2001\| isbn=9780471036708 }}</ref> Analysts classify these trends as ''secular'' for long time-frames, ''primary'' for medium time-frames, and ''secondary'' for short time-frames.<ref name=Edwards>{{cite book \| url= https://books.google.com/books?id=cVJmDwAAQBAJ \| first1= Robert D. \| last1= Edwards \| first2=John \| last2=McGee \| first3=W. H. C. \| last3=Bessetti \| title=Technical Analysis of Stock Trends \| publisher=[[CRC Press]] \| date=July 24, 2018 \| isbn=978-0-8493-3772-7 }}</ref> Traders attempt to identify market trends using [[technical analysis]], a framework which characterizes market trends as predictable price tendencies within the market when price reaches [[support and resistance ]]levels, varying over time.		A '''''market trend''''' is a perceived tendency of the [[financial market]]s to move in a particular direction over time.<ref name=course>{{cite book \| url= https://books.google.com/books?id=gtrLvlojNzIC&pg=PA91 \| title= The Stock Market Course \| first1=George \| last1=Fontanills \| first2=Tommy \| last2=Gentile \|publisher=[[Wiley (publisher)\|Wiley]] \| page=91 \| date=2001\| isbn=9780471036708 }}</ref> Analysts classify these trends as ''secular'' for long time-frames, ''primary'' for medium time-frames, and ''secondary'' for short time-frames.<ref name=Edwards>{{cite book \| url= https://books.google.com/books?id=cVJmDwAAQBAJ \| first1= Robert D. \| last1= Edwards \| first2=John \| last2=McGee \| first3=W. H. C. \| last3=Bessetti \| title=Technical Analysis of Stock Trends \| publisher=[[CRC Press]] \| date=July 24, 2018 \| isbn=978-0-8493-3772-7 }}</ref> Traders attempt to identify market trends using [[technical analysis]], a framework which characterizes market trends as predictable price tendencies within the market when price reaches [[support and resistance]] levels, varying over time.

	A future market trend can only be determined in hindsight, since at any time prices in the future are not known. Past trends are identified by drawing lines, known as trendlines, that connect price action making higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend, or lower lows and lower highs for a downtrend.		A future market trend can only be determined in hindsight, since at any time prices in the future are not known. Past trends are identified by drawing lines, known as trendlines, that connect price action making higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend, or lower lows and lower highs for a downtrend.
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	==Market terminology==		==Market terminology==
	[[File:Bulle und Bär Frankfurt.jpg\|right\|thumb\|Statues of the two symbolic beasts of finance, the bear and the bull, in front of the [[Frankfurt Stock Exchange]]]]		[[File:Bulle und Bär Frankfurt.jpg\|right\|thumb\|Statues of the two symbolic beasts of finance, the bear and the bull, in front of the [[Frankfurt Stock Exchange]]]]
	{{~~more~~\|Bull (stock market speculator)\|Bull–bear line}}		{{further\|Bull (stock market speculator)\|Bull–bear line}}
	The terms "bull market" and "bear market" describe upward and downward market trends, respectively,<ref>{{cite journal \| last1=Preis \| first1=Tobias \| last2=Stanley \| first2=H. Eugene \| title=Bubble trouble: Can a Law Describe Bubbles and Crashes in Financial Markets? \| journal=[[Physics World]] \| volume=24 \| pages=29–32 \| year=2011\| doi=10.1088/2058-7058/24/05/34 }}</ref> and can be used to describe either the market as a whole or specific sectors and securities.<ref name=Edwards/> The terms come from London's [[Exchange Alley]] in the early [[18th century]], where traders who engaged in [[naked short selling]] were called "bear-skin jobbers" because they sold a bear's skin (the shares) before catching the bear. This was simplified to "bears," while traders who bought shares on [[credit]] were called "bulls." The latter term might have originated by analogy to [[bear-baiting]] and [[bull-baiting]], two animal fighting sports of the time.<ref>{{cite news\|last=Schneider\|first=Daniel B.\|title=F.Y.I.\|work=The New York Times\|date=November 30, 1997\|url=https://www.nytimes.com/1997/11/30/nyregion/fyi-328278.html\|access-date=2022-01-30}}</ref> [[Thomas Mortimer (writer)\|Thomas Mortimer]] recorded both terms in his 1761 book ''[[Every Man His Own Broker]]''. He remarked that bulls who bought in excess of present demand might be seen wandering among brokers' offices moaning for a buyer, while bears rushed about devouring any shares they could find to close their short positions. An unrelated [[folk etymology]] supposes that the terms refer to a bear clawing downward to attack and a bull bucking upward with its horns.<ref name=course/><ref name="Investopedia">{{cite web \|url=http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bullmarket.asp \|title=Bull Market \| publisher=[[Investopedia]]}}</ref>		The terms "bull market" and "bear market" describe upward and downward market trends, respectively,<ref>{{cite journal \| last1=Preis \| first1=Tobias \| last2=Stanley \| first2=H. Eugene \| title=Bubble trouble: Can a Law Describe Bubbles and Crashes in Financial Markets? \| journal=[[Physics World]] \| volume=24 \| pages=29–32 \| year=2011\| doi=10.1088/2058-7058/24/05/34 }}</ref> and can be used to describe either the market as a whole or specific sectors and securities.<ref name=Edwards/> The terms come from London's [[Exchange Alley]] in the early [[18th century]], where traders who engaged in [[naked short selling]] were called "bear-skin jobbers" because they sold a bear's skin (the shares) before catching the bear. This was simplified to "bears," while traders who bought shares on [[credit]] were called "bulls." The latter term might have originated by analogy to [[bear-baiting]] and [[bull-baiting]], two animal fighting sports of the time.<ref>{{cite news\|last=Schneider\|first=Daniel B.\|title=F.Y.I.\|work=The New York Times\|date=November 30, 1997\|url=https://www.nytimes.com/1997/11/30/nyregion/fyi-328278.html\|access-date=2022-01-30}}</ref> [[Thomas Mortimer (writer)\|Thomas Mortimer]] recorded both terms in his 1761 book ''[[Every Man His Own Broker]]''. He remarked that bulls who bought in excess of present demand might be seen wandering among brokers' offices moaning for a buyer, while bears rushed about devouring any shares they could find to close their short positions. An unrelated [[folk etymology]] supposes that the terms refer to a bear clawing downward to attack and a bull bucking upward with its horns.<ref name=course/><ref name="Investopedia">{{cite web \|url=http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bullmarket.asp \|title=Bull Market \| publisher=[[Investopedia]]}}</ref>

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	===Bear market rally===		===Bear market rally===
	Similarly, a bear market [[Rally (stock market)\|rally]], sometimes referred to as a 'sucker's rally' or '[[dead cat bounce]]',is characterized by a price increase of 5% or more before prices fall again.<ref>{{cite web \| url=http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bear-market-rally.asp \| title=Bear Market Rally Definition \| publisher=[[Investopedia]]}}</ref> Bear market rallies were observed in the [[Dow Jones Industrial Average]] index after the [[Wall Street Crash of 1929]], leading down to the market bottom in 1932, and throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. The [[Japan]]ese [[Nikkei 225]] has had several bear-market rallies between the 1980s and 2011, while undergoing an overall long-term downward trend.<ref>{{cite web \|url=https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/30-years-since-Japan-s-stock-market-peaked-climb-back-continues \|author=Masayuki Tamura \|publisher=Asia Nikkei \|title=30 years since Japan's stock market peaked, climb back continues}}</ref>		Similarly, a bear market [[Rally (stock market)\|rally]], sometimes referred to as a 'sucker's rally' or '[[dead cat bounce]]', is characterized by a price increase of 5% or more before prices fall again.<ref>{{cite web \| url=http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bear-market-rally.asp \| title=Bear Market Rally Definition \| publisher=[[Investopedia]]}}</ref> Bear market rallies were observed in the [[Dow Jones Industrial Average]] index after the [[Wall Street Crash of 1929]], leading down to the market bottom in 1932, and throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. The [[Japan]]ese [[Nikkei 225]] has had several bear-market rallies between the 1980s and 2011, while undergoing an overall long-term downward trend.<ref>{{cite web \|url=https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/30-years-since-Japan-s-stock-market-peaked-climb-back-continues \|author=Masayuki Tamura \|publisher=Asia Nikkei \|title=30 years since Japan's stock market peaked, climb back continues}}</ref>

	==Causes of market trends==		==Causes of market trends==
	The price of assets, such as stocks, is determined by supply and demand. By definition, the market balances buyers and sellers, making it impossible to have 'more buyers than sellers' or vice versa, despite the common use of that expression. During a surge in demand, buyers are willing to pay higher prices, while sellers seek higher prices in return. Conversely, in a surge in supply, the dynamics are reversed.		The price of assets, such as stocks, is determined by supply and demand. By definition, the market balances buyers and sellers, making it impossible to have 'more buyers than sellers' or vice versa, despite the common use of that expression. During a surge in demand, buyers are willing to pay higher prices, while sellers seek higher prices in return. Conversely, in a surge in supply, the dynamics are reversed.

	[[Supply and demand]] dynamics vary as investors attempt to reallocate their investments between asset types. For instance, investors may seek to move funds from government bonds to 'tech' stocks, but the success of this shift depends on finding buyers for the [[~~Government~~ bond~~\|government bonds~~]] they are selling. Conversely, they might aim to move funds from 'tech' stocks to government bonds at another time. In each case, these actions influence the prices of both asset types.		[[Supply and demand]] dynamics vary as investors attempt to reallocate their investments between asset types. For instance, investors may seek to move funds from government bonds to 'tech' stocks, but the success of this shift depends on finding buyers for the [[government bond]]s they are selling. Conversely, they might aim to move funds from 'tech' stocks to government bonds at another time. In each case, these actions influence the prices of both asset types.

	Ideally, investors aim to use [[market timing]] to buy low and sell high, but in practice, they may end up buying high and selling low.<ref>{{cite news\|last=Kinnel\|first=Russel\|date=August 15, 2019\|title=Mind the Gap 2019\|work=[[Morningstar, Inc.]]\|url=https://www.morningstar.com/articles/942396/mind-the-gap-2019\|access-date=May 14, 2020}}</ref> Contrarian investors and traders employ a strategy of 'fading' investors' actions—buying when others are selling and selling when others are buying. A period when most investors are selling stocks is known as distribution, while a period when most investors are buying stocks is known as accumulation.		Ideally, investors aim to use [[market timing]] to buy low and sell high, but in practice, they may end up buying high and selling low.<ref>{{cite news\|last=Kinnel\|first=Russel\|date=August 15, 2019\|title=Mind the Gap 2019\|work=[[Morningstar, Inc.]]\|url=https://www.morningstar.com/articles/942396/mind-the-gap-2019\|access-date=May 14, 2020}}</ref> Contrarian investors and traders employ a strategy of 'fading' investors' actions—buying when others are selling and selling when others are buying. A period when most investors are selling stocks is known as distribution, while a period when most investors are buying stocks is known as accumulation.

	"According to standard theory, a decrease in price typically leads to less supply and more demand, while an increase in price has the opposite effect. While this principle holds true for many assets, it often operates in reverse for stocks due to the common mistake made by investors—buying high in a state of euphoria and selling low in a state of fear or panic, driven by the herding instinct. In cases where an increase in price leads to an increase in demand, or a decrease in price leads to an increase in supply, the expected [[negative feedback]] loop is disrupted, resulting in price instability. <ref>{{Cite book \|last=Wilcox \|first=Jarrod \|title=Financial advice and investment decisions: a manifesto for change \|last2=Fabozzi \|first2=Frank J. \|date=2013 \|publisher=Wiley \|isbn=978-1-118-41532-0 \|series=The Frank J. Fabozzi series \|location=Hoboken, NJ}}</ref> This phenomenon is evident in bubbles or market crashes.		"According to standard theory, a decrease in price typically leads to less supply and more demand, while an increase in price has the opposite effect. While this principle holds true for many assets, it often operates in reverse for stocks due to the common mistake made by investors—buying high in a state of euphoria and selling low in a state of fear or panic, driven by the herding instinct. In cases where an increase in price leads to an increase in demand, or a decrease in price leads to an increase in supply, the expected [[negative feedback]] loop is disrupted, resulting in price instability.<ref>{{Cite book \|last=Wilcox \|first=Jarrod \|title=Financial advice and investment decisions: a manifesto for change \|last2=Fabozzi \|first2=Frank J. \|date=2013 \|publisher=Wiley \|isbn=978-1-118-41532-0 \|series=The Frank J. Fabozzi series \|location=Hoboken, NJ}}</ref> This phenomenon is evident in bubbles or market crashes.

	==Market sentiment==		==Market sentiment==
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	==External links==		==External links==
			{{Commons category-inline}}
	{{Commonscatinline}}

	{{technical analysis}}		{{technical analysis}}

Dawkin Verbier: ce

2024-04-01T08:17:57Z

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	{{short description\|Perceived financial market movement tendency over time}}		{{short description\|Perceived financial market movement tendency over time}}
	{{About\|market trend in finance\|the trend of a market that is used in a company's planning activities, especially regarding inventory decisions, purchasing, facility expansion, and promotional activities.		{{About\|market trend in finance\|the trend of a market that is used in a company's planning activities, especially regarding inventory decisions, purchasing, facility expansion, and promotional activities
	\|Market analysis}}		\|Market analysis}}

Mimi Ho Kora: /* Market top */ Citation needed

2024-03-30T14:32:16Z

Market top: Citation needed

← Previous revision		Revision as of 14:32, 30 March 2024
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	===Market top===		===Market top===
	A market top (or market high) is usually not a dramatic event. The market has simply reached the highest point that it will, for some time{{Weasel inline\|date=January 2022}} ~~(usually a few years{{Citation needed\|date=January 2022}}).~~ This identification is retrospective, as market participants are generally unaware of it when it occurs. Thus prices subsequently fall, either slowly or more rapidly.		A market top (or market high) is usually not a dramatic event. The market has simply reached the highest point that it will, for some time.{{Weasel inline\|date=January 2022}} This identification is retrospective, as market participants are generally unaware of it when it occurs. Thus prices subsequently fall, either slowly or more rapidly.

	According to [[William O'Neil]], since the 1950s, a market top is characterized by three to five distribution days in a major [[stock market index]] occurring within a relatively short period of time. Distribution is identified as a decline in price with higher volume than the preceding session.<ref>{{cite web \|url=https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/know-this-sell-rule-when-distribution-days-pile-up-in-the-stock-market/ \|author=David Saito-Chung \|title=Know This Sell Rule: When Distribution Days Pile Up In The Stock Market \|date=8 November 2016 \|publisher=Investors.com}}</ref>		According to [[William O'Neil]], since the 1950s, a market top is characterized by three to five distribution days in a major [[stock market index]] occurring within a relatively short period of time. Distribution is identified as a decline in price with higher volume than the preceding session.<ref>{{cite web \|url=https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/know-this-sell-rule-when-distribution-days-pile-up-in-the-stock-market/ \|author=David Saito-Chung \|title=Know This Sell Rule: When Distribution Days Pile Up In The Stock Market \|date=8 November 2016 \|publisher=Investors.com}}</ref>

Abdullah raji: Emboldened

2024-03-09T09:12:14Z

Emboldened

← Previous revision		Revision as of 09:12, 9 March 2024
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	\|Market analysis}}		\|Market analysis}}

	A ''market trend'' is a perceived tendency of the [[financial market]]s to move in a particular direction over time.<ref name=course>{{cite book \| url= https://books.google.com/books?id=gtrLvlojNzIC&pg=PA91 \| title= The Stock Market Course \| first1=George \| last1=Fontanills \| first2=Tommy \| last2=Gentile \|publisher=[[Wiley (publisher) \|Wiley]] \| page=91 \| date=2001\| isbn=9780471036708 }}</ref> Analysts classify these trends as ''secular'' for long time-frames, ''primary'' for medium time-frames, and ''secondary'' for short time-frames.<ref name=Edwards>{{cite book \| url= https://books.google.com/books?id=cVJmDwAAQBAJ \| first1= Robert D. \| last1= Edwards \| first2=John \| last2=McGee \| first3=W. H. C. \| last3=Bessetti \| title=Technical Analysis of Stock Trends \| publisher=[[CRC Press]] \| date=July 24, 2018 \| isbn=978-0-8493-3772-7 }}</ref> Traders attempt to identify market trends using [[technical analysis]], a framework which characterizes market trends as predictable price tendencies within the market when price reaches [[support and resistance ]]levels, varying over time.		A '''''market trend''''' is a perceived tendency of the [[financial market]]s to move in a particular direction over time.<ref name=course>{{cite book \| url= https://books.google.com/books?id=gtrLvlojNzIC&pg=PA91 \| title= The Stock Market Course \| first1=George \| last1=Fontanills \| first2=Tommy \| last2=Gentile \|publisher=[[Wiley (publisher) \|Wiley]] \| page=91 \| date=2001\| isbn=9780471036708 }}</ref> Analysts classify these trends as ''secular'' for long time-frames, ''primary'' for medium time-frames, and ''secondary'' for short time-frames.<ref name=Edwards>{{cite book \| url= https://books.google.com/books?id=cVJmDwAAQBAJ \| first1= Robert D. \| last1= Edwards \| first2=John \| last2=McGee \| first3=W. H. C. \| last3=Bessetti \| title=Technical Analysis of Stock Trends \| publisher=[[CRC Press]] \| date=July 24, 2018 \| isbn=978-0-8493-3772-7 }}</ref> Traders attempt to identify market trends using [[technical analysis]], a framework which characterizes market trends as predictable price tendencies within the market when price reaches [[support and resistance ]]levels, varying over time.

	A future market trend can only be determined in hindsight, since at any time prices in the future are not known. Past trends are identified by drawing lines, known as trendlines, that connect price action making higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend, or lower lows and lower highs for a downtrend.		A future market trend can only be determined in hindsight, since at any time prices in the future are not known. Past trends are identified by drawing lines, known as trendlines, that connect price action making higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend, or lower lows and lower highs for a downtrend.

Mimi Ho Kora: what is a trend

2024-02-19T19:35:50Z

what is a trend

← Previous revision		Revision as of 19:35, 19 February 2024
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	A ''market trend'' is a perceived tendency of the [[financial market]]s to move in a particular direction over time.<ref name=course>{{cite book \| url= https://books.google.com/books?id=gtrLvlojNzIC&pg=PA91 \| title= The Stock Market Course \| first1=George \| last1=Fontanills \| first2=Tommy \| last2=Gentile \|publisher=[[Wiley (publisher) \|Wiley]] \| page=91 \| date=2001\| isbn=9780471036708 }}</ref> Analysts classify these trends as ''secular'' for long time-frames, ''primary'' for medium time-frames, and ''secondary'' for short time-frames.<ref name=Edwards>{{cite book \| url= https://books.google.com/books?id=cVJmDwAAQBAJ \| first1= Robert D. \| last1= Edwards \| first2=John \| last2=McGee \| first3=W. H. C. \| last3=Bessetti \| title=Technical Analysis of Stock Trends \| publisher=[[CRC Press]] \| date=July 24, 2018 \| isbn=978-0-8493-3772-7 }}</ref> Traders attempt to identify market trends using [[technical analysis]], a framework which characterizes market trends as predictable price tendencies within the market when price reaches [[support and resistance ]]levels, varying over time.		A ''market trend'' is a perceived tendency of the [[financial market]]s to move in a particular direction over time.<ref name=course>{{cite book \| url= https://books.google.com/books?id=gtrLvlojNzIC&pg=PA91 \| title= The Stock Market Course \| first1=George \| last1=Fontanills \| first2=Tommy \| last2=Gentile \|publisher=[[Wiley (publisher) \|Wiley]] \| page=91 \| date=2001\| isbn=9780471036708 }}</ref> Analysts classify these trends as ''secular'' for long time-frames, ''primary'' for medium time-frames, and ''secondary'' for short time-frames.<ref name=Edwards>{{cite book \| url= https://books.google.com/books?id=cVJmDwAAQBAJ \| first1= Robert D. \| last1= Edwards \| first2=John \| last2=McGee \| first3=W. H. C. \| last3=Bessetti \| title=Technical Analysis of Stock Trends \| publisher=[[CRC Press]] \| date=July 24, 2018 \| isbn=978-0-8493-3772-7 }}</ref> Traders attempt to identify market trends using [[technical analysis]], a framework which characterizes market trends as predictable price tendencies within the market when price reaches [[support and resistance ]]levels, varying over time.

	A market trend can only be determined in hindsight, since at any time prices in the future are not known.		A future market trend can only be determined in hindsight, since at any time prices in the future are not known. Past trends are identified by drawing lines, known as trendlines, that connect price action making higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend, or lower lows and lower highs for a downtrend.

	==Market terminology==		==Market terminology==
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	==External links==		==External links==
	{{Commonscatinline}}		{{Commonscatinline}}
	* [http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trendanalysis.asp Market trend definition, explanations, and examples provided in simple terms]


	{{technical analysis}}		{{technical analysis}}

← Previous revision		Revision as of 01:33, 11 May 2024
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	[[File:Bulle und Bär Frankfurt.jpg\|right\|thumb\|Statues of the two symbolic beasts of finance, the bear and the bull, in front of the [[Frankfurt Stock Exchange]]]]		[[File:Bulle und Bär Frankfurt.jpg\|right\|thumb\|Statues of the two symbolic beasts of finance, the bear and the bull, in front of the [[Frankfurt Stock Exchange]]]]
	{{further\|Bull (stock market speculator)\|Bull–bear line}}		{{further\|Bull (stock market speculator)\|Bull–bear line}}
	The terms "bull market" and "bear market" describe upward and downward market trends, respectively,<ref>{{cite journal \| last1=Preis \| first1=Tobias \| last2=Stanley \| first2=H. Eugene \| title=Bubble trouble: Can a Law Describe Bubbles and Crashes in Financial Markets? \| journal=[[Physics World]] \| volume=24 \| pages=29–32 \| year=2011\| doi=10.1088/2058-7058/24/05/34 }}</ref> and can be used to describe either the market as a whole or specific sectors and securities.<ref name=Edwards/> The terms come from London's [[Exchange Alley]] in the early [[18th century]], where traders who engaged in [[naked short selling]] were called "bear-skin jobbers" because they sold a bear's skin (the shares) before catching the bear. This was simplified to "bears," while traders who bought shares on [[credit]] were called "bulls." The latter term might have originated by analogy to [[bear-baiting]] and [[bull-baiting]], two animal fighting sports of the time.<ref>{{cite news\|last=Schneider\|first=Daniel B.\|title=F.Y.I.\|work=The New York Times\|date=November 30, 1997\|url=https://www.nytimes.com/1997/11/30/nyregion/fyi-328278.html\|access-date=2022-01-30}}</ref> [[Thomas Mortimer (writer)\|Thomas Mortimer]] recorded both terms in his 1761 book ''[[Every Man His Own Broker]]''. He remarked that bulls who bought in excess of present demand might be seen wandering among brokers' offices moaning for a buyer, while bears rushed about devouring any shares they could find to close their short positions. An unrelated [[folk etymology]] supposes that the terms refer to a bear clawing downward to attack and a bull bucking upward with its horns.<ref name=course/><ref name="Investopedia">{{cite web \|url=http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bullmarket.asp \|title=Bull Market \| publisher=[[Investopedia]]}}</ref>		The terms "bull market" and "bear market" describe upward and downward market trends, respectively,<ref>{{cite journal \| last1=Preis \| first1=Tobias \| last2=Stanley \| first2=H. Eugene \| title=Bubble trouble: Can a Law Describe Bubbles and Crashes in Financial Markets? \| journal=[[Physics World]] \| volume=24 \| pages=29–32 \| year=2011\| doi=10.1088/2058-7058/24/05/34 }}</ref> and can be used to describe either the market as a whole or specific sectors and securities.<ref name=Edwards/> The terms come from London's [[Exchange Alley]] in the early 18th century, where traders who engaged in [[naked short selling]] were called "bear-skin jobbers" because they sold a bear's skin (the shares) before catching the bear. This was simplified to "bears," while traders who bought shares on credit were called "bulls." The latter term might have originated by analogy to [[bear-baiting]] and [[bull-baiting]], two animal fighting sports of the time.<ref>{{cite news\|last=Schneider\|first=Daniel B.\|title=F.Y.I.\|work=The New York Times\|date=November 30, 1997\|url=https://www.nytimes.com/1997/11/30/nyregion/fyi-328278.html\|access-date=2022-01-30}}</ref> [[Thomas Mortimer (writer)\|Thomas Mortimer]] recorded both terms in his 1761 book ''[[Every Man His Own Broker]]''. He remarked that bulls who bought in excess of present demand might be seen wandering among brokers' offices moaning for a buyer, while bears rushed about devouring any shares they could find to close their short positions. An unrelated [[folk etymology]] supposes that the terms refer to a bear clawing downward to attack and a bull bucking upward with its horns.<ref name=course/><ref name="Investopedia">{{cite web \|url=http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bullmarket.asp \|title=Bull Market \| publisher=[[Investopedia]]}}</ref>

	==Secular trends==		==Secular trends==
	A secular market trend is a lasting long-term trend that lasts 5 to 25 years and consists of a series of primary trends. A secular bear market consists of smaller bull markets and larger bear markets; a secular bull market consists of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets.		A secular market trend is a lasting long-term trend that lasts 5 to 25 years and consists of a series of primary trends. A secular bear market consists of smaller bull markets and larger bear markets; a secular bull market consists of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets.

	In a secular bull market, the prevailing trend is "bullish" or upward-moving. The [[United States]] [[stock market]] was described as being in a secular bull market from about 1983 to 2000 (or 2007), with brief upsets including [[Black Monday (1987)\|Black Monday]] and the [[Stock market downturn of 2002]], triggered by the crash of the [[dot-com bubble]]. Another example is the [[2000s commodities boom]].		In a secular bull market, the prevailing trend is "bullish" or upward-moving. The United States [[stock market]] was described as being in a secular bull market from about 1983 to 2000 (or 2007), with brief upsets including [[Black Monday (1987)\|Black Monday]] and the [[Stock market downturn of 2002]], triggered by the crash of the [[dot-com bubble]]. Another example is the [[2000s commodities boom]].

	In a secular bear market, the prevailing trend is "bearish" or downward-moving. An example of a secular bear market occurred in [[gold]] from January 1980 to June 1999, culminating with the [[Brown Bottom]]. During this period, the market price of gold fell from a high of $850/oz ($30/g) to a low of $253/oz ($9/g).<ref>{{Cite web\|url=http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au968-999.gif\|title=Chart of gold 1968–99\|website=www.kitco.com\|accessdate=Mar 17, 2023}}</ref> The stock market was also described as being in a secular bear market from 1929 to 1949.		In a secular bear market, the prevailing trend is "bearish" or downward-moving. An example of a secular bear market occurred in gold from January 1980 to June 1999, culminating with the [[Brown Bottom]]. During this period, the market price of gold fell from a high of $850/oz ($30/g) to a low of $253/oz ($9/g).<ref>{{Cite web\|url=http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au968-999.gif\|title=Chart of gold 1968–99\|website=www.kitco.com\|accessdate=Mar 17, 2023}}</ref> The stock market was also described as being in a secular bear market from 1929 to 1949.

	==Primary trends==		==Primary trends==
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	A primary trend has broad support throughout the entire market, across most sectors, and lasts for a year or more.		A primary trend has broad support throughout the entire market, across most sectors, and lasts for a year or more.

	===Bull market===<!-- This section is linked from [[Bull]] -->		===Bull market===<!-- This section is linked from Bull -->
	[[File:Wall Street bubbles - Always the same - Keppler 1901.jpg\|thumb\|right\|A 1901 cartoon depicting financier [[J. P. Morgan]] as a bull with eager investors]]		[[File:Wall Street bubbles - Always the same - Keppler 1901.jpg\|thumb\|right\|A 1901 cartoon depicting financier [[J. P. Morgan]] as a bull with eager investors]]
	{{see_also\|Bull (stock market speculator)}}		{{see_also\|Bull (stock market speculator)}}
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	Bear markets conclude when stocks recover, reaching new highs.<ref>{{cite news\|last=DeCambre\|first=Mark\|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stop-saying-the-dow-is-moving-in-and-out-of-correction-that-is-not-how-stock-market-moves-work-2018-03-23\|title=Stop saying the Dow is moving in and out of correction! That is not how stock-market moves work\|date=April 6, 2018\|work=[[MarketWatch]]}}</ref> The bear market is then assessed retrospectively from the recent highs to the lowest closing price,<ref>{{Cite web\|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/illustration-of-bull-and-bear-markets-2014-12\|title=This Is The Best Illustration Of History's Bull And Bear Markets We've Seen Yet\|last=Ro\|first=Sam\|website=Business Insider\|access-date=2020-03-18}}</ref> and its recovery period spans from the lowest closing price to the attainment of new highs. Another commonly accepted indicator of the end of a bear market is indices gaining 20% or more from their low.<ref>{{Cite news\|last=Driebusch\|first=Georgi Kantchev and Corrie\|url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-waver-after-weak-economic-data-11550220104\|title=Nasdaq Exits Bear Market as Stocks Rally\|date=2019-02-15\|work=Wall Street Journal\|access-date=2020-03-18\|language=en-US\|issn=0099-9660}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web\|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-nasdaq-is-on-pace-to-end-its-longest-bear-market-in-nearly-30-years-2019-02-13\|title=The Nasdaq escapes longest bear market — by one measure — in 28 years\|last=DeCambre\|first=Mark\|website=MarketWatch\|language=en-US\|access-date=2020-03-18}}</ref>		Bear markets conclude when stocks recover, reaching new highs.<ref>{{cite news\|last=DeCambre\|first=Mark\|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stop-saying-the-dow-is-moving-in-and-out-of-correction-that-is-not-how-stock-market-moves-work-2018-03-23\|title=Stop saying the Dow is moving in and out of correction! That is not how stock-market moves work\|date=April 6, 2018\|work=[[MarketWatch]]}}</ref> The bear market is then assessed retrospectively from the recent highs to the lowest closing price,<ref>{{Cite web\|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/illustration-of-bull-and-bear-markets-2014-12\|title=This Is The Best Illustration Of History's Bull And Bear Markets We've Seen Yet\|last=Ro\|first=Sam\|website=Business Insider\|access-date=2020-03-18}}</ref> and its recovery period spans from the lowest closing price to the attainment of new highs. Another commonly accepted indicator of the end of a bear market is indices gaining 20% or more from their low.<ref>{{Cite news\|last=Driebusch\|first=Georgi Kantchev and Corrie\|url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-waver-after-weak-economic-data-11550220104\|title=Nasdaq Exits Bear Market as Stocks Rally\|date=2019-02-15\|work=Wall Street Journal\|access-date=2020-03-18\|language=en-US\|issn=0099-9660}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web\|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-nasdaq-is-on-pace-to-end-its-longest-bear-market-in-nearly-30-years-2019-02-13\|title=The Nasdaq escapes longest bear market — by one measure — in 28 years\|last=DeCambre\|first=Mark\|website=MarketWatch\|language=en-US\|access-date=2020-03-18}}</ref>

	From 1926 to 2014, the average duration of a bear market was 13 months, accompanied by an average cumulative loss of 30%. Annualized declines for bear markets ranged from ~~-19~~.7% to ~~-47~~%.<ref>{{cite news \| url=https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/26/the-stock-market-loses-13percent-in-a-correction-on-average.html \| title=The stock market loses 13% in a correction on average, if it doesn't turn into a bear market \| first1=Thomas \| last1=Franck \| first2=Kate \| last2=Rooney \| work=[[CNBC]] \| date=October 26, 2018}}</ref>		From 1926 to 2014, the average duration of a bear market was 13 months, accompanied by an average cumulative loss of 30%. Annualized declines for bear markets ranged from −19.7% to −47%.<ref>{{cite news \| url=https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/26/the-stock-market-loses-13percent-in-a-correction-on-average.html \| title=The stock market loses 13% in a correction on average, if it doesn't turn into a bear market \| first1=Thomas \| last1=Franck \| first2=Kate \| last2=Rooney \| work=[[CNBC]] \| date=October 26, 2018}}</ref>

	====Examples====		====Examples====
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	Some examples of a bear market include:		Some examples of a bear market include:
	* The [[Wall Street Crash of 1929]], which erased 89% (from 386 to 40) of the [[Dow Jones Industrial Average]]'s [[market capitalization]] by July 1932, marking the start of the [[Great Depression]]. After regaining nearly 50% of its losses, a longer bear market from 1937 to 1942 occurred in which the market was again cut in half.		* The [[Wall Street Crash of 1929]], which erased 89% (from 386 to 40) of the [[Dow Jones Industrial Average]]'s [[market capitalization]] by July 1932, marking the start of the [[Great Depression]]. After regaining nearly 50% of its losses, a longer bear market from 1937 to 1942 occurred in which the market was again cut in half.
	* A long-term bear market occurred from about 1973 to 1982, encompassing the [[1970s energy crisis]] and the high [[unemployment]] of the early 1980s.		* A long-term bear market occurred from about 1973 to 1982, encompassing the [[1970s energy crisis]] and the high unemployment of the early 1980s.
	* A bear market occurred in India following the [[1992 Indian stock market ~~scam\|1992 Indian Stock Market~~ scam]] committed by [[Harshad Mehta]].		* A bear market occurred in India following the [[1992 Indian stock market scam]] committed by [[Harshad Mehta]].
	* The [[Stock market downturn of 2002]].		* The [[Stock market downturn of 2002]].
	* As a result of the [[financial crisis of 2007–2008]], a bear market occurred between October 2007 and March 2009.		* As a result of the [[financial crisis of 2007–2008]], a bear market occurred between October 2007 and March 2009.
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	====Examples====		====Examples====
	The peak of the [[dot-com bubble]], as measured by the [[NASDAQ-100]], occurred on March 24, 2000, when the index closed at 4,704.73. The [[Nasdaq~~\|NASDAQ~~]] peaked at 5,132.50 and the [[S&P 500 Index]] at 1525.20.		The peak of the [[dot-com bubble]], as measured by the [[NASDAQ-100]], occurred on March 24, 2000, when the index closed at 4,704.73. The [[Nasdaq]] peaked at 5,132.50 and the [[S&P 500 Index]] at 1525.20.

	The peak of the U.S. stock market before the [[financial crisis of 2007–2008]] occurred on October 9, 2007. The [[S&P 500 Index]] closed at 1,565 and the NASDAQ at 2,861.50.		The peak of the U.S. stock market before the [[financial crisis of 2007–2008]] occurred on October 9, 2007. The [[S&P 500 Index]] closed at 1,565 and the NASDAQ at 2,861.50.
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	===Bear market rally===		===Bear market rally===
	Similarly, a bear market [[Rally (stock market)\|rally]], sometimes referred to as a 'sucker's rally' or '[[dead cat bounce]]', is characterized by a price increase of 5% or more before prices fall again.<ref>{{cite web \| url=http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bear-market-rally.asp \| title=Bear Market Rally Definition \| publisher=[[Investopedia]]}}</ref> Bear market rallies were observed in the [[Dow Jones Industrial Average]] index after the [[Wall Street Crash of 1929]], leading down to the market bottom in 1932, and throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. The ~~[[Japan]]ese~~ [[Nikkei 225]] has had several bear-market rallies between the 1980s and 2011, while undergoing an overall long-term downward trend.<ref>{{cite web \|url=https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/30-years-since-Japan-s-stock-market-peaked-climb-back-continues \|author=Masayuki Tamura \|publisher=Asia Nikkei \|title=30 years since Japan's stock market peaked, climb back continues}}</ref>		Similarly, a bear market [[Rally (stock market)\|rally]], sometimes referred to as a 'sucker's rally' or '[[dead cat bounce]]', is characterized by a price increase of 5% or more before prices fall again.<ref>{{cite web \| url=http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bear-market-rally.asp \| title=Bear Market Rally Definition \| publisher=[[Investopedia]]}}</ref> Bear market rallies were observed in the [[Dow Jones Industrial Average]] index after the [[Wall Street Crash of 1929]], leading down to the market bottom in 1932, and throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. The Japanese [[Nikkei 225]] has had several bear-market rallies between the 1980s and 2011, while undergoing an overall long-term downward trend.<ref>{{cite web \|url=https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/30-years-since-Japan-s-stock-market-peaked-climb-back-continues \|author=Masayuki Tamura \|publisher=Asia Nikkei \|title=30 years since Japan's stock market peaked, climb back continues}}</ref>

	==Causes of market trends==		==Causes of market trends==