Peak Phosphor

A graph showing world phosphate rock production vs. year determined by the U.S. Geological Survey.

Peak phosphorus is the point in time at which the maximum global phosphorus production rate is reached. Phosphorus is a scarce finite resource on earth and due to its non-gaseous environmental cycle has resulted in alternative means other than mining being unavailable. According to some researchers, Earth's phosphorus reserves are expected to be completely depleted in 50–100 years and peak phosphorus to be reached in approximately 2030. The predominant source of phosphorus comes in the form of phosphate rock and in the past guano.

The International Fertilizer Development Center in a 2010 report estimates that global phosphate rock resources will last for several hundred years. The US Geological Survey has now revised its reserve estimates upwards.

The Soil Association, the UK organic agriculture certification and pressure group, issued a report in 2010 "A Rock and a Hard Place" encouraging more recycling of phosphorus.

References

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• Leo Lewis: Scientists warn of lack of vital phosphorus as biofuels raise demands In: Times Online, 23 June 2008 
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• Karl Burkart: Where Sewage Meets 'Peak Phosphorus' In: Forbes, 2 June 2010 
• Eliot Blackwelder: The Geologic Rôle of Phosphorus. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2. Jahrgang, Nr. 8, 1916, S. 490–495, PMID 16586638, PMC 1091075 (freier Volltext). 
• D.P. Van Vuuren, A.F. Bouwman, A.H.W. Beusen: Phosphorus demand for the 1970–2100 period: A scenario analysis of resource depletion. In: Global Environmental Change. 20. Jahrgang, Nr. 3, August 2010, S. 428–439, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.04.004 (sciencedirect.com). 
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