Thomas Robert Malthus
Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834), English economist.
Malthus predicted that the demand for food would inevitably surpass its supply. This prediction was based on the idea that population increases at ageometric rate while the foodsupply grows at an arithmetic rate. This would eventually lead to what is now known as the 'Malthusian catastrophe' in which population growth exceeded the capacity of the world to sustain that population.
Although Malthus' arguments are at first sight convincing, they do not take into account the continued development of science and technology, nor the effect of the combined ingenuity and resourcefullness of mankind. Historical improvements in life expectancy, and continued reductions in the price of almost every major commodity, continue to confound Malthus' predictions.
In spite of this, Neo-Malthusians continue to assert the inevitability of Malthus' conclusions, and that developments in technology have only postponed, not eliminated, Malthus' catastrophe. Most non-Malthusians predict that life on Earth will settle down to a steady state in the long run, perhaps with space expolaration offering an outlet for continued economic growth and expansion. Other futurists predict that mankind is progressing towards a singularity in history, where increasing technological change will transform the nature of life on earth.
Notable works include:
- An Essay on the Principle of Population
- An Investigation of the Cause of the Present High Price of Provisions
External links:
- Essay by David Friedman arguing against Malthus' conclusions (written in 1972)