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2011 Mississippi River floods

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100 populated locations were experiencing major or moderate flooding on May 8, 2011. Source: National Weather Service

The Mississippi River floods in April and May 2011 are among the largest and most damaging along the flood-prone U.S. river in the past century. Comparisons are being drawn with the major Mississippi River floods in 1927 and 1993. In April 2011, two major storm systems tracked through much of the vast Mississippi River watershed, dumping record rainfall over large areas. Already rising from springtime snowmelt, the river, and many of its tributaries, began to swell to record levels by the beginning of May. Areas along the Mississippi itself experiencing flooding include Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana. U.S. President Barack Obama declared the western counties of Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi federal disaster areas.[1]

Fourteen people have been killed in Arkansas,[2] with 340 killed across seven states in the preceding storms.[3] Thousands of homes have been ordered evacuated, including over 1,300 in Memphis, Tennessee,[4] and more than 2,000 in the state of Mississippi.[5] About 13% of U.S. petroleum refinery output is expected to be disrupted by flood levels exceeding historical records in several locations,[6] with gasoline futures up 9.2%.[7] The flood is expected to crest in Memphis by May 10 and in southern Louisiana by May 23.[8] The Army Corps of Engineers has stated that, even if spillways are opened, an area in Louisiana between Simmesport and Baton Rouge may be inundated with 20–30 feet (6.1–9.1 m) of water.[9][10] There is also a risk that the lower Mississippi River will undergo a major course change, directing its main channel into the Atchafalaya River, thus bypassing Baton Rouge and New Orleans.[11][12][13]

Background

Rainfall totals within the United States for the week ending April 29

From April 14–16, the storm system responsible for one of the largest tornado outbreaks in U.S. history also produced large amounts of rainfall across the southern and midwestern United States. Two weeks later, from April 25–28, a second, even more extensive and deadly storm system passed through the Mississippi Valley dumping more rainfall resulting in deadly flash floods. This latter storm produced over 250 tornadoes, killing at least 340 people in the deadliest tornado outbreak since 1925. Combined, the storms killed at least 383 people and caused an estimated $5 billion dollars in damage. The unprecedented extensive rainfall from these two storms, combined with springtime snow melt from the Upper Midwest, created the perfect situation for a 500-year flood along the Mississippi.

Mississippi River watershed

Missouri

On May 3, the Army Corps of Engineers blasted a two-mile hole in the levee protecting the Bird's Point-New Madrid floodway, flooding 130,000 acres (530 km2) of farmland in Mississippi County, Missouri, in an effort to save the town of Cairo, Illinois, from record-breaking flood waters.[14] The breach displaced around 200 residents of Missouri's Mississippi and New Madrid counties, who were forced to evacuate after a court approved the Corps of Engineers plan to breach the levee.[15]

Tennessee

Dyersburg, a city in northwestern Tennessee, has experienced the worst flooding with over 600 homes and businesses inundated as the Forked Deer River, a tributary of the Mississippi, has flowed backwards into southern areas of the city.[16] In Memphis, Tennessee, the high-end neighborhood of Harbor Town, located along the river on Mud Island in Downtown Memphis, has begun evacuating its 5,200 residents as flood waters rise to record levels.[17] On May 5, the river reached 44 feet 2 inches (13.5 m), the highest level it has reached at Memphis since 1937, when the river there reached a record 48.7 feet (14.8 m). The National Weather Service predicts the river to rise to 48 feet by May 10.[18] Many local rivers have spilled their banks, including Big Creek, the Loosahatchie River, and the Wolf River. Subsequent flooding has occurred in Millington, as well as suburban areas of Frayser, Bartlett, and East Memphis.

Arkansas

Interstate 40, connecting Memphis and Little Rock, has experienced flooding west of Memphis along the White River between Hazen and Brinkley, where lanes in both directions have been closed. Brinkley itself has also experienced flooding. Eight people have died in Arkansas as a result of flooding since April 26.[19]

Mississippi

Mississippi counties declared federal disaster areas

In Tunica County, nine casinos located on stationary river barges have been closed. The hotel portion of the casinos are located on adjacent, low-lying land, and have begun to flood with the rising waters. On May 5, the Harrah's Tunica has reported nearly 6 feet (1.8 m) of water inside the ground floor of the hotel tower.[20] Near Vicksburg, Highway 465 in Warren and Issaquena counties was closed on May 5 due to high flood waters.[21]

In anticipation of major flooding, Governor Haley Barbour announced on May 5 that the federal government had declared eleven counties along the Mississippi River federal disaster areas. Gov. Barbour requested to have additional counties added, and by May 7, thirteen counties were listed: Adams, Bolivar, Claiborne, Coahoma, Desoto, Issaquena, Jefferson, Sharkey, Tunica, Warren, Washington, Wilkinson, and Yazoo.[22] [23]

Projected crest levels at Vicksburg and Natchez are above the record 1927 level.[24]

Risk of major course change in the Lower Mississippi River

The Old River Control Structure complex. View is to the east-southeast, looking downriver on the Mississippi, with the three dams across channels of the Atchafalaya River to the right of the Mississippi. Concordia Parish, Louisiana is in the foreground, on the right, and Wilkinson County, Mississippi, is in the background, across the Mississippi on the left.

The Old River Control Structure in northern Louisiana may be threatened by the rising waters, and opening of the Morganza Spillway nearby is being considered to lower the river level and flow in this area and downriver.[25][26] Failure of either of these structures might allow the Mississippi to divert its main channel to the Atchafalaya Basin and the Atchafalaya River, developing a new delta south of Morgan City in southern Louisiana, and greatly reducing water flow to its present channel through Baton Rouge and New Orleans to its current delta in southeastern Louisiana.[11] [12][13] Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground noted that failure of the Old River Control Structure "would be a serious blow to the U.S. economy, and the great Mississippi flood of 2011 will give [this structure] its most severe test ever."[27] Some geologists have observed that the lower Mississippi may chart a new course to the sea even if the dam and spillway facilities remain intact, because the possibility for course change exists in the area north of the facilities. Army Corps of Engineers geologist Fred Smith once stated, "The Mississippi wants to go west. 1973 was a forty-year flood. The big one lies out there somewhere—when the structures can't release all the floodwaters and the levee is going to have to give way. That is when the river's going to jump its banks and try to break through."[28]

See also

References

  1. ^ (Memphis Daily News)
  2. ^ http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2011/apr/30/river-floods-100-homes-states-death-toll--20110430/
  3. ^ http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2011/05/09/us_mississippi_river_flooding
  4. ^ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13364606
  5. ^ "Flooding begins to 'wrap arms' around Memphis" May 7, 2011 (Toronto Sun)
  6. ^ "Mississippi at Memphis Near Record, Spurs Evacuations" May 7, 2011 (Bloomberg)
  7. ^ http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-05-10/mississippi-flooding-threatens-crops-refineries-and-homes.html
  8. ^ http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2011/0508/Memphis-and-Baton-Rouge-brace-for-record-breaking-Mississippi-flood
  9. ^ Estimated Inundation (US Army Corps of Engineers)
  10. ^ XKCD blog
  11. ^ a b "Will the Mississippi River change its course in 2011 to the red line?". Mappingsupport. Retrieved 2011-05-08.
  12. ^ a b Controlling the Mighty Mississippi's path to the sea
  13. ^ a b "Mississippi Rising: Apocalypse Now? (April 28, 2011)". Daily Impact. Retrieved 10 May 2011.
  14. ^ "Levee breach lowers river, but record flooding still forecast". CNN. May 3, 2011. Retrieved 2011-05-03.
  15. ^ "Court approves breaching of Birds Point levee". KSDK Cairo, Ill.
  16. ^ "Hundreds of Structures Underwater in Dyersburg". WREG Memphis. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |1= (help)
  17. ^ "Mud Island residents watch as river rises". WMC. 2011-05-05. Retrieved 2011-05-05.
  18. ^ "Miss. River at historic level, worst still ahead". WMC Memphis. May 5, 2011.
  19. ^ "Man drowned in floodwaters in eastern Arkansas". Associated Press. May 5, 2011.
  20. ^ "Rising waters flood Tunica casinos". WMC. 2011-05-05. Retrieved 2011-05-05.
  21. ^ Mississippi Floods 2011: Highway 465 to Close Tonight at 7:00 p.m.
  22. ^ Federal Disaster Declaration Granted for Several Counties Along Mississippi River
  23. ^ Mississippi Flooding, Emergency Declared (EM-3320)
  24. ^ In Mississippi Delta, All Eyes on a Swelling River, New York Times, May 6, 2011
  25. ^ Schliefstein, Mark. "Record high river likely to require opening of Morganza Spillway next week (May 4, 2011, revised May 9, 2011)". The Times-Picayune (New Orleans). Retrieved 10 May 2011.
  26. ^ Schliefstein, Mark. "Morganza Spillway might be opened to ease swollen Mississippi River (May 8, 2011, revised May 9, 2011)". The Times-Picayune (New Orleans). Retrieved 10 May 2011.
  27. ^ http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1798
  28. ^ http://www.newyorker.com/archive/1987/02/23/1987_02_23_039_TNY_CARDS_000347146?currentPage=all McPhee, The Control of Nature: Atchafalaya
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