Wikipedia

2008 United States presidential election

This is an old revision of this page, as edited by 65.124.156.200 (talk) at 19:12, 8 February 2006 (→About the Democratic Frontrunner). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

Template:Future election

Presidential electoral votes by state

The U.S. presidential election of 2008 is scheduled to occur on November 4, 2008. The election will determine the 44th President of the United States[1]. The allocation of electoral votes to each state will remain the same for this election as it was for the election in 2004, relying on the 2000 Census. The winner will be sworn in on January 20, 2009.

The Incumbents

In 2008, President Bush will be prohibited from seeking a third term by Amendment XXII to the U.S. Constitution. In the three most recent eight-year administrations, the incumbent Vice President has subsequently run for President:

However, current Vice President Dick Cheney announced in 2001 that he would never run for President, a statement he reiterated as recently as 2004: while appearing on Fox News Sunday, Cheney stated: "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say ... 'If nominated, I will not run,' 'If elected, I will not serve,' or not only 'no,' but 'Hell, no,' I've got my plans laid out. I'm going to serve this President for the next four years, and then I'm out of here." Cheney is known not to be in particularly good health: a former heavy smoker, he has had four heart attacks and repeated surgery on his heart and circulatory system, and he has persistent atherosclerotic disease.

The 2008 race will therefore be a non-incumbent or "open seat" election in which a sitting President is not a candidate, barring the possibility of President Bush's impeachment, incapacitation or death. Furthermore, assuming Cheney serves his full term and does not run, the 2008 race will be the first time since 1928 that neither the sitting President nor the sitting Vice President is a candidate for President. (Note that while the 1952 general election between Dwight D. Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson also did not include a sitting President or Vice President, sitting Vice President Alben Barkley had unsuccessfully campaigned for the Democratic presidential nomination.)

Should Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice (the current frontrunner in public opinion polls) receive the Republican party's nomination in 2008, she would revive an old practice that was the norm for the first fifty years of United States history. In early tradition, the Secretary of State post was traditionally the stepping stone to the Presidency. Many Commanders in Chief of the late 18th and early 19th centuries held Dr. Rice's current post before being elected, including Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren, and James Buchanan. The Secretary of State post remains the primary Cabinet-level office to succeed the Chief Executive in the presidential line of succession.

The Frontrunners

Though it is quite early on in the political process of the 2008 presidential election, names are already beginning to appear as potential candidates. While this information will most likely undergo changes as new public opinion data becomes available, the anticipated frontrunners for the major political parties in America are as follows:

Democratic Party Frontrunners

Based on all of the major public opinion polls as provided by the Opinion polling for the 2008 U.S. presidential election section, on average, the top five Democratic frontrunners currently appear to be:

Average of All Major Polls

Democrat %
Hillary Clinton 38%
John Kerry 16%
John Edwards 14%
Joe Biden 6%
Bill Richardson 3%

The Latest Poll

Kitchens Group Poll - conducted Jan 20-23, 2006

Democrat %
Hillary Clinton 42%
John Edwards 16%
John Kerry 12%
Joe Biden 6%
Russ Feingold 3%

EDIT as of February 7, 2006: These numbers do not take into consideration the potential running of either former Vice President (and President hopeful [2001]) Al Gore or Democratic Party Head Howard Dean. However, Gore has repeatedly said he will not run, and has made no action to prepare to, and Dean is restricted from running by his role as DNC Chairman.

About the Democratic Frontrunner

[relevant?]

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) has currently stated that she is not considering running for the United States presidency, but is rather focusing on her 2006 re-election bid.

Clinton is a former attorney born in Illinois, but who made her home in Arkansas with her husband, the former governor, William J. Clinton. Throughout her time as Arkansas First Lady, Clinton continued to practice law with the Rose Law Firm. In 1988 and 1991, the National Law Journal named Clinton one of the 100 most influential lawyers in America [2]. Clinton co-founded the Arkansas Advocates for Children and Families and served on the boards of the Arkansas Children's Hospital Legal Services and the Children's Defense Fund [3].

In 1992, her husband Bill Clinton was elected the 42nd President of the United States. As First Lady during her husband's two terms, she was best known for her influence in the development of the Clinton health care plan, her outspokenness against the treatment of Afghan women by the Taliban of Afghanistan, and her predicament during the 1998 Lewinsky scandal and her husband's subsequent impeachment.

Sen. Clinton is the first US First Lady to be a candidate for elective office. She was elected as a Senator for New York in 2000, and has served in that capacity since 2001. Sen. Clinton has seemingly become (or tried to appear so) more of a centrist during recent years, being outspoken on issues like homeland security and evidencing more bi-partisanship. Though Sen. Clinton has denied any serious presidential ambitions at the time, she has definitely not ruled out the possibility that she may run in the future. Should she be elected, she would be the third sitting Senator, the first US First Lady, and the first female to do so.

Republican Party Frontrunners

Based on all of the major public opinion polls as provided by the Opinion polling for the 2008 U.S. presidential election section, on average, the top five Republican frontrunners currently appear to be:

Average of All Major Polls

Republican %
Condoleezza Rice 26%
Rudolph Giuliani 22%
John McCain 19%
Newt Gingrich 8%
George Allen 7%

The Latest Poll

Kitchens Group Poll - conducted Jan 20-23, 2006

Republican %
Condoleezza Rice 26%
Rudolph Giuliani 25%
John McCain 20%
Newt Gingrich 20%
George Allen 3%

About the Republican Frontrunner

[relevant?]

Dr. Condoleezza Rice is currently the 66th Secretary of State. She was born and raised in Birmingham, Alabama, during the midst of the heated Civil Rights movement and the subsequent backlash from the racist community. Her family placed an emphasis on education, advancement, and Christian faith, and she grew up relatively unscathed by the harassment of the racist establishment. As a teen, her family moved to Denver, Colorado, where she finished high school and attended the University of Denver. She graduated from college at the age of 19, acquired her Master's degree from the University of Notre Dame at the age of 20, and earned her first Ph.D. from the Graduate School of International Studies at the University of Denver at age 26.

She became a tenured professor of political science at Stanford University, and from 1993-1999, served as Stanford's Provost. Her most notable achievement in that position was her elimination of the university's $20 million debt, giving the school a record $14.5 million surplus in two years. During George H. W. Bush's administration, she was a National Security Council member, and eventually became top advisor to the President for Soviet and East European Affairs, where she helped form critical foreign policy during the downfall of the Soviet Union and the reunification of Germany.

In 2001, she became George W. Bush's National Security Advisor, less than a year before one of the biggest national security crises ever, the September 11th, 2001 terrorist attacks.

In 2005, she became Secretary of State. In that position, she has played a key role in the Six-Party talks concerning North Korea. In November of 2005, she led the 48-hour brokering of the Gaza border deal (a major part of the Israeli Roadmap for Peace). In December of 2005, President Bush named Secretary Rice the head of a new organization designated to oversee the economic and governmental reconstruction, and the rebuilding of infrastructure, in countries recovering from war or civil strife (including Iraq).

She is known for her tough stance on the Iranian nuclear situation; her push for reform in places like Sudan, Ethiopia, Liberia, Uzbekistan, Palestine, and Syria; her improvement of U.S.-European relations in the aftermath of the controversial Iraq War; and her bold restructuring of the State Department in an attempt to increase the effectiveness of American diplomats and foreign policy.

Though Dr. Rice has repeatedly asserted that she has no desire to actively campaign for the presidency, there is a burgeoning grassroots movement to draft her as the Republican nominee in 2008. While Dr. Rice has said that the U.S. Presidency is not something she desires in life, groups like Americans For Rice vow to ensure that her name is on the 2008 primary ballots anyway, and that she receives the GOP nomination. In spite of her denials, she remains the overall Republican frontrunner in public opinion polls.

If elected, she would be the seventh Secretary of State to become President, as well as the first African American and the first female President in United States history.

Timeline

Early fundraising and primaries

Candidates of the Constitution, Democratic, Green, Libertarian, Republican, Socialist and other parties have begun making their plans known as early as 2005, and candidates will emerge during 2006 and 2007 because of the long lead time for fund-raising. Federal election laws require the reporting of funds raised for the primary elections, and in the past the media has anointed "front-runners" on the basis of reported fund-raising totals. For example, this occurred with Howard Dean in the 2004 electoral cycle although he was initially considered a long-shot.

Beginning in January 2008, the first primary contests will be held in Iowa (caucus) and New Hampshire (primary) and perhaps other states to select delegates to the party conventions. The primaries continue through June, but in previous cycles, including 2004, the candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries.

Later events

Speculated Candidates

While it is rare for candidates to officially declare their candidacy prior to late in the year preceding the presidential election (in this case, 2007), some potential candidates may have expressed their interest in running, and are listed below. At this early stage, many of the strongest candidates might have yet to emerge, and these lists include few of the political figures who excite speculation amongst political activists, insiders, and media commentators.

Democratic Party

Main article: Potential Democratic candidates in the 2008 U.S. presidential election

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy

  • Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana
  • Senator Joe Biden of Delaware
  • General Wesley Clark, of Arkansas, former Supreme Commander, NATO
  • Former Senator Tom Daschle of South Dakota, defeated in his 2004 re-election campaign by now-Senator John Thune
  • Former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, Vice Presidential nominee in 2004
  • Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin
  • Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, Presidential nominee in 2004
  • Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, former Energy Secretary, and former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N.
  • Former Governor Mark Warner of Virginia

Other potential candidates

(Barack Obama has stated that he will not run for President or Vice-President in 2008)

EDIT as of Febrauary 7, 2006: * Democratic Party Head Howard Dean; it is also believed Dennis Kucinich will not run in 2008

Republican Party

Main article: Potential Republican candidates in the 2008 U.S. presidential election

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy

Other potential candidates

(Haley Barbour has stated that he will not run for President or Vice-President in 2008)

Third parties

Main article: Potential third party candidates in the 2008 U.S. presidential election

Constitution Party

Potential candidates

Green Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy
Other potential candidates

Libertarian Party

Potential candidates
Other potential candidates

Prohibition Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy
Other potential candidates

Independents

Potential candidates

Opinion polling, prediction markets

Further information: [[:Opinion polling for the 2008 U.S. presidential election]]

Tradesports, an online betting company with active political futures markets, lists candidates bettors predict are the most likely to be nominated in 2008.[6]

Candidate predictions

Dick Morris, political commentator, best-selling author, and former Clinton adviser, published a book in 2005 entitled "Condi vs. Hillary" (subtitled The Next Great Presidential Race) (ISBN 0060839139), in which he predicts that US Secretary of State Dr. Condoleezza Rice will be the Republican nominee in 2008, while NY Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. Morris also predicts that while Dr. Rice herself will not actively pursue the office, a grassroots draft movement (in the style of the Draft-Eisenhower movement in 1952) will see to it that Dr. Rice's name appears on the primary ballots and that Dr. Rice, without any campaigning on her own part, will receive the GOP nomination. There is already a large Draft-Rice movement, the most prominent group being a 527 political organization called Americans for Dr. Rice, which has accumulated thousands of members, already begun fundraising, and has aired radio and television ads in several key campaign states. There is also a group called VoteHillary.org seeking to persuade Sen. Clinton to run in 2008.

Bob Woodward, in 2005, stated that Cheney is a "serious darkhorse" candidate for the GOP nomination in 2008[7] and later predicted that the nominees in 2008 would be Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Dick Cheney for the Republicans [8]. Cheney later stated however that even if he were offered the Republican nomination in 2008, he would not accept.

Notes

  1. ^ The person elected in 2008 will be the 44th President, provided current President George W. Bush serves the full remainder of his term, which expires at 12:00:00 EST (17:00:00 UTC) on Tuesday, January 20, 2009.

References

Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2008_United_States_presidential_election&oldid=38800398"