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2008 United States presidential election

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File:Electoral map450.jpg
Presidential electoral votes by state

The 2008 United States presidential election is scheduled to occur on November 4, 2008. The allocation of electoral votes to each state will remain the same for this election as it was for the election in 2004, relying on the 2000 Census.

The shape of presidential battles

Recent elections have revolved around the dominant Democratic and Republican parties, although many candidates seek election to the presidency. In recent presidential elections, however, minor parties such as the Green, Libertarian, and Reform parties, as well as Ross Perot's 1992 independent candidacy, have occasionally had a significant impact on both the tone of the campaigns and sometimes the outcome of the election. Modern third parties allow a broad choice to voters who are not satisified that their views are represented by either of the major parties. They raise the potential of affecting the outcome in close races by pulling votes away from one major party that might have gone to it if the ballot didn't include those alternatives and thereby potentially leading to victory for the other major party less affected by appeal of a particular third party to its voter base. Some political observers believe that in the 2000 race the extremely close vote total balance between Republicans and Democrats in Florida was affected by the votes that went instead to other parties and that the outcome might have been different if they were not on the ballot.

In 2008, President Bush will be prohibited from seeking a third term by Amendment XXII to the US Constitution. In the last three eight-year administrations, the incumbent vice president has gone on to run for president at the end of the eight years: Dwight D. Eisenhower's vice president Richard Nixon in the 1960 election, Ronald Reagan's vice president George H. W. Bush in the 1988 election and Bill Clinton's vice president Al Gore in the 2000 election.

However, current Vice President Dick Cheney announced in 2001 that he would never run for President. Assuming that George W. Bush, who was re-elected in 2004, remains in office through 2008, then the 2008 race will be a non-incumbent election; that is, one in which a sitting president is not a candidate. Furthermore, the 2008 race will apparently be the first time since 1952 and only the second time since 1928 that neither the sitting president nor the sitting vice-president is a candidate for president.

This has led to some speculation that Cheney might be replaced as vice president at some point to establish someone else as an "heir apparent" for the Republicans in 2008; although Cheney was nominated and elected for the vice presidency in the 2004 election, he could still well resign before November 2008, most likely citing lingering health concerns. This scenario is perhaps made somewhat more likely by the concurrent retention by the Republicans of both houses of Congress, since Amendment XXV requires the confirmation of any replacement Vice President by both houses of Congress, not just the Senate as is typically the case with Presidential appointees. Regardless, depending on the success or failure of an eight-year Bush presidency, the Republicans would have the option of running a candidate who promised to continue Bush's policy, a candidate who repudiated Bush's policies and promoted a different policy agenda, or someone who followed some but not all of the Bush political platform and agenda.

For the Democrats, the Bush re-election in 2004 gives them a broad freedom to choose a 2008 candidate and platform.

Timeline

Candidates of the Constitution, Democratic, Green, Libertarian, Republican, and possibly other parties may begin making their plans known as early as 2005. If current election laws remain unchanged, a few important dates are already known:

  • 2006-2007 The fundraising race.

Candidates who can raise substantial money early may attract more media attention. That attention could translate in stronger voter identification and upward movement in the polls and, as the cycle repeats, could lead to separation from a crowded field of possibles. Because of this dynamic there may be several candidates who try to start earlier than usual and benefit from the early attention. An early start helped Howard Dean rise from unknown to contender to front-runner. Some of the better known candidates can afford to wait longer, confident in their fundraising ability and voter identification, to give more time to judge the field and whether they want to run in 2008 or wait for 2012.

  • 2008

Beginning in January, the first contests are held in Iowa (caucus) and New Hampshire (primary) and perhaps other states. Nomination process unfolds through at least March and perhaps as late as June. Party conventions in late summer/early fall.

  • 2009

Candidates who may be pursuing an active 2008 candidacy

While it is rare for candidates to officially declare their candidacy prior to late in the year preceding the presidential election (in this case, 2007), a number of activities are commonly seen as indicative of active exploration of a presidential campaign. These include prominent statements of non-committal to a run, meetings with prominent national party fundraisers, and speaking engagements in the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire. However, some major 2008 contenders are sure not to make these activities visible, instead preparing their campaigns behind the scenes, while many others may not actively begin their campaign activity until after the 2006 mid-term elections.

Some of the candidates (also listed below) who have engaged in typical pre-candidacy activites:

Democrats

Republicans

Libertarians

Potential candidates for nomination in 2008

Numerous names have been floated as possible candidates for President or Vice President in 2008.

Democrats

Republicans

Libertarians

Greens

Constitution

Other parties and independents

It is also conceivable that a candidate for a major party nomination who did not win that nomination might seek the presidency as an other party or independent candidate; contemporary examples include John B. Anderson, Republican nomination candidate and Independent general election candidate in the 1980 election, and Buchanan, Republican nomination candidate in the 1992, 1996 and initially prospective candidate in the 2000 election primaries but then Reform Party general election candidate in the 2000 election.

Possible Constitutional amendments

There has been some discussion recently of amending the Constitution to remove the absolute requirement that only natural-born citizens may become President. It would require 2/3rds favorable votes by both houses of congress and ratification by 3/4ths of the states. This proposal has been advanced 26 times since the 1870's without even moving to a congressional floor vote. In the extremely unlikely event that a strong consensus developed and the amendment won swift enough passage to allow such a change to occur in time for the 2008 elections, possible candidates for President or Vice President who are naturalized citizens and who have lived in the United States a minimum length of time (20 years in Senator Orrin Hatch's proposal) would include Democratic Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm, born in Canada; Republican Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez, born in Cuba; Republican Secretary of Labor Elaine Chao, born in Taiwan; Democratic former Secretary of State Madeline Albright, born in Czechoslovakia; Republican U.S. Senator from Florida Mel Martinez, born in Cuba; and Republican California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, born in Austria. Alternative proposals requiring 35 years residency or phasing the measure in 10 years in the future would effectively remove the prospects that passing the measure would benefit these prominent individuals in 2008.

The possible repeal or amendment of Amendment XXII to allow a President to seek election to a third or further term has also come under some discussion. One proposal would allow a President to serve only two consecutive terms but seek to return after a respite. The only living former president who has served two terms is Bill Clinton. George W. Bush is also unable to run again. If sentiments across party lines looked favorably on a contest between George W. Bush and Bill Clinton in 2008, when both men would be 62, 2012, when both would be 66, or at a later date, or a potential candidacy by either individually, a repeal or change to this term limit might find support.

Opinion polling

General Election

Poll Source Date Democrat % Republican %
Quinnipiac University Poll Dec. 7-12, 2004 Hillary Clinton 43% Rudy Giuliani 45%
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Dec. 14-15, 2004 Hillary Clinton 40% Bill Frist 33%
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Dec. 14-15, 2004 Hillary Clinton 41% George Pataki 35%
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Dec. 14-15, 2004 Hillary Clinton 46% Jeb Bush 35%
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Dec. 14-15, 2004 John Kerry 45 % Jeb Bush 37%

Democratic Candidate

Poll Source Date Highlights
Gallup Poll Nov. 7-10, 2004 Hillary Clinton 25%, John Kerry 15%, John Edwards 7%
Ipsos-Public Affairs Dec. 17-19, 2004 Hillary Clinton 33%, John Kerry 19%, John Edwards 15%, Wesley Clark 11%
Ipsos-Public Affairs Dec. 17-19, 2004 Hillary Clinton 33%, John Kerry 19%, John Edwards 15%, Wesley Clark 11%
CNN/U.S.A Today/Gallup Feb. 10th, 2005 Hillary Clinton 40%, John Kerry 25%, John Edwards 17%, Other 6%

Republican Candidate

Poll Source Date Highlights
Gallup Poll Nov. 7-10, 2004 John McCain 10%, Rudy Giuliani 10%, Colin Powell 7%, Jeb Bush 3%
Ipsos-Public Affairs Dec. 17-19, 2004 Rudy Giuliani 29%,John McCain 25%, Bill Frist 7%,Jeb Bush 7%
CNN/U.S.A Today/Gallup Feb. 10th, 2005 Rudy Giuliani 34%,John McCain 29%, Jeb Bush 12%,Bill Frist 6%, Other 7%


List of Polls

Election results template

Presidential Candidate Electoral Vote Popular Vote Pct Party Running Mate
(Electoral Votes)
           
Other elections: 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020
Source: U.S. Office of the Federal Register

See also

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