2008 United States presidential election
The 2008 United States presidential election is scheduled to occur on November 4, 2008. The allocation of electoral votes to each state will remain the same for this election as it was for the election in 2004, relying on the 2000 Census.
The shape of presidential battles
Recent elections have revolved around the dominant Democratic and Republican parties, although many candidates seek election to the presidency. In recent presidential elections, however, minor parties such as the Green, Libertarian, and Reform parties, as well as Ross Perot's 1992 independent candidacy, have occasionally had a significant impact on both the tone of the campaigns and sometimes the outcome of the election. Modern third parties allow a broad choice to voters who are not satisified that their views are represented by either of the major parties. They raise the potential of affecting the outcome in close races by pulling votes away from one major party that might have gone to it if the ballot didn't include those alternatives and thereby potentially leading to victory for the other major party less affected by appeal of a particular third party to its voter base. Some political observers believe that in the 2000 race the extremely close vote total balance between Republicans and Democrats in Florida was affected by the votes that went instead to other parties and that the outcome might have been different if they were not on the ballot.
In 2008, President Bush will be prohibited from seeking a third term by Amendment XXII to the US Constitution. In the last three eight-year administrations, the incumbent vice president has gone on to run for president at the end of the eight years: Dwight D. Eisenhower's vice president Richard Nixon in the 1960 election, Ronald Reagan's vice president George H. W. Bush in the 1988 election and Bill Clinton's vice president Al Gore in the 2000 election.
However, current Vice President Dick Cheney announced in 2001 that he would never run for President. Assuming that George W. Bush, who was re-elected in 2004, remains in office through 2008, then the 2008 race will be a non-incumbent election; that is, one in which a sitting president is not a candidate. Furthermore, the 2008 race will apparently be the first time since 1952 and only the second time since 1928 that neither the sitting president nor the sitting vice-president is a candidate for president.
This has led to some speculation that Cheney might be replaced as vice president at some point to establish someone else as an "heir apparent" for the Republicans in 2008; although Cheney was nominated and elected for the vice presidency in the 2004 election, he could still well resign before November 2008, most likely citing lingering health concerns. This scenario is perhaps made somewhat more likely by the concurrent retention by the Republicans of both houses of Congress, since Amendment XXV requires the confirmation of any replacement Vice President by both houses of Congress, not just the Senate as is typically the case with Presidential appointees. Regardless, depending on the success or failure of an eight-year Bush presidency, the Republicans would have the option of running a candidate who promised to continue Bush's policy, a candidate who repudiated Bush's policies and promoted a different policy agenda, or someone who followed some but not all of the Bush political platform and agenda.
For the Democrats, the Bush re-election in 2004 gives them a broad freedom to choose a 2008 candidate and platform.
Timeline
Candidates of the Constitution, Democratic, Green, Libertarian, Republican, and possibly other parties may begin making their plans known as early as 2005. If current election laws remain unchanged, a few important dates are already known:
- 2006-2007 The fundraising race.
Candidates who can raise substantial money early may attract more media attention. That attention could translate in stronger voter identification and upward movement in the polls and, as the cycle repeats, could lead to separation from a crowded field of possibles. Because of this dynamic there may be several candidates who try to start earlier than usual and benefit from the early attention. An early start helped Howard Dean rise from unknown to contender to front-runner. Some of the better known candidates can afford to wait longer, confident in their fundraising ability and voter identification, to give more time to judge the field and whether they want to run in 2008 or wait for 2012.
- 2008
Beginning in January, the first contests are held in Iowa (caucus) and New Hampshire (primary) and perhaps other states. Nomination process unfolds through at least March and perhaps as late as June. Party conventions in late summer/early fall.
- November 4 - Election Day
- December 15 - Members of the U.S. Electoral College meet in each state to cast their votes for President.
- 2009
- January 6 - Electoral votes officially tallied before both Houses of Congress.
- January 20 - Inauguration Day
Candidates who may be pursuing an active 2008 candidacy
While it is rare for candidates to officially declare their candidacy prior to late in the year preceding the presidential election (in this case, 2007), a number of activities are commonly seen as indicative of active exploration of a presidential campaign. These include prominent statements of non-committal to a run, meetings with prominent national party fundraisers, and speaking engagements in the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire. However, some major 2008 contenders are sure not to make these activities visible, instead preparing their campaigns behind the scenes, while many others may not actively begin their campaign activity until after the 2006 mid-term elections.
Some of the candidates (also listed below) who have engaged in typical pre-candidacy activites:
Democrats
- Joe Biden, U.S. senator from Delaware and 1988 Democratic primary candidate. On December 8, 2004, Biden announced to radio host Don Imus: "I'm going to proceed as if I'm going to run." Grassroots Petition.
- Wesley Clark, United States Four-Star Army General (retired), former NATO Supreme Allied Commander and 2004 nomination candidate (Arkansas). On January 4, 2005 (and several times since, and more enthusiastically), Clark declared he had "Ruled nothing out." Wes Clark continues to operate WesPAC in support of Democratic candidates, and speak and act in myriad fora.
- Hillary Clinton, U.S. senator from New York and former First Lady of the United States. Despite previously denying she would run, Clinton has been making a number of speeches taking moderate positions on abortion, immigration and faith-based initiatives in an apparent attempt to dispel her reputation in certain circles as being "too liberal". [1] Rumors have, in fact, set Senator Clinton for the '08 election for several years, though there was significant buzz in the idea of her running for President or Vice President in 2004 as well. "Draft Hilary" Effort.
- John Edwards, former U.S. senator from North Carolina, 2004 candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, and 2004 vice presidential candidate. Edwards was the headliner for the "100 Club Dinner," a major February 2005 Democratic fund-raiser in New Hampshire.
- Russ Feingold, U.S. senator from Wisconsin, announced to a meeting of the Tiger Bay Club of Volusia County, Florida, in January 2005 that he was considering a run for the nomination, and would decide after "going around the country" to campaign for fellow Democrats running for other offices [2]. On January 21, 2005, he filed papers with the Federal Election Commission to form the Progressive Patriots PAC, soon to be renamed the the Progressive Patriots Fund, a "leadership committee," which will be financing his travels around the country [3].
- John Kerry, U.S. senator from Massachusetts and 2004 presidential candidate. Kerry visited Iowa in December 2004 to thank campaign supporters. He is maintaining a high profile and continuing to send regular e-mails on issues to the large database of supporters amassed during the 2004 campaign.
- Bill Richardson, governor of New Mexico, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Secretary of Energy and U.S. representative. In February 2005, the Associated Press reported that he has informed party leaders that he intends to run[4].
Republicans
- Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives and former U.S. represenatative from Georgia [5] Gingrich just released a book which includes some criticism of President George W. Bush, and has announced a tour of early campaign states.
- Rudy Giuliani, former New York City mayor. Giuliani courted New Hampshire delegates at the 2004 Republican National Convention.
- John McCain, U.S. senator from Arizona and 2000 nomination candidate, has made several independent visits to New Hampshire in 2004.
- George Pataki, Governor of New York. Pataki also actively courted 2004 RNC delegates from New Hampshire. Faces a tough reelection bid for governor in 2006.
- Mitt Romney, Governor of Massachusetts. WFXT, a Boston FOX affiliate, reports that Romney supporters have been quietly laying the groundwork for a presidential campaign and that he will be speaking before South Carolina Republicans in early 2005.
Libertarians
- Michael Badnarik, 2004 presidential nominee. Badnarik announced his intentions to run in 2008 in November 2004.
- Lance Brown, who started his campaign in 1994 and has a campaign weblog and has declared his intentions to seek presidential nomination.
Potential candidates for nomination in 2008
Numerous names have been floated as possible candidates for President or Vice President in 2008.
- Daniel Akaka, U.S. senator from Hawaii.
- Max Baucus. U.S. senator from Montana.
- Evan Bayh, U.S. senator from Indiana and former governor of Indiana. Grassroots effort.
- Joe Biden, see active candidates above.
- Rod Blagojevich, governor of Illinois.
- Barbara Boxer, U.S. senator from California. A "Draft Boxer" campaign began on the internet in January 2005.
- Bill Bradley, former U.S. senator from New Jersey and 2000 nomination candidate
- John Breaux, former U.S. senator from Louisiana.
- Phil Bredesen, governor of Tennessee.
- Jerry Brown, former governor of California, current mayor of Oakland, California, current candidate for Attorney General of California, and former candidate for the 1976, 1980, and 1992 presidential nominations.
- Wesley Clark, see active candidates above.
- Hillary Clinton, see active candidates above.
- Jim Cooper, U.S. congressman from Tennessee.
- Jon Corzine, U.S. senator from New Jersey, candidate for the Democratic nomination for Governor of New Jersey in 2005.
- Howard Dean, former governor of Vermont, 2004 nomination candidate, chairman of the Democratic National Committee. Dean would have to leave his term as DNC chairman early and break a key pledge of his campaign for the post to run for president in 2008. Unofficial site
- Christopher Dodd, U.S. senator from Connecticut
- Jim Doyle, governor of Wisconsin.
- Richard Durbin, U.S. senator and minority whip from Illinois. He has said he would never run for president.
- Mike Easley, governor of North Carolina.
- John Edwards, see active candidates above.
- Russ Feingold, see active candidates above.
- Harold Ford, Jr., U.S. representative from Tennessee
- Al Franken, political satirist.
- Al Gore, former vice president and 2000 Presidential nominee, former U.S. senator and representative from Tennessee. Unofficial website
- Bob Graham, former U.S. senator from Florida, and 2004 candidate
- Tom Harkin, U.S. senator from Iowa.
- Gary Hart, former U.S. senator from Colorado and candidate for the 1984 and 1988 nominations; considered a run for the 2004 nomination.
- Brad Henry, governor of Oklahoma.
- Stephanie Herseth, U.S. Congresswoman from South Dakota.
- Jim Hunt, former governor of North Carolina.
- Marcy Kaptur, U.S. Representative from Ohio briefly considered a run in 2004.
- Bob Kerrey, former governor and U.S. Senator from Nebraska, member of 9/11 commission.
- John Kerry, see active candidates above.
- Herb Kohl, U.S. Senator from Wisconsin.
- Dennis Kucinich, U.S. representative from Ohio, former mayor of Cleveland and 2004 nomination candidate.
- Mary Landrieu, U.S. senator from Louisiana
- Carl Levin, U.S. Senator from Michigan.
- Joe Lieberman. U.S. senator from Connecticut, 2000 vice presidential nominee and 2004 candidate.
- Blanche Lincoln, U.S. senator from Arkansas. A "Draft Blanche Lincoln" campaign began on the internet in February 2005.
- Janet Napolitano, governor of Arizona
- Bill Nelson, U.S. senator from Florida
- Barack Obama, U.S. senator from Illinois. Has said he will not run in 2008.
- Nancy Pelosi, House Minority Leader and U.S. Representative, California
- Harry Reid, Senate minority leader and U.S. senator from Nevada
- Ed Rendell, governor of Pennsylvania and former mayor of Philadelphia. Has said that he is "not really" interested in running in 2008. [6]
- Janet Reno, former U.S. Attorney General.
- Ann Richards, former governor of Texas.
- Bill Richardson, see active candidates above.
- Tim Ryan, U.S. Congressman from Ohio.
- Chuck Schumer, U.S. senator from New York and chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
- Kathleen Sebelius, governor of Kansas
- Al Sharpton, Pentecostal minister, activist and 2004 nomination candidate (New York)
- Eliot Spitzer, Attorney General of New York, candidate for 2006 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York
- Debbie Stabenow, U.S. Senator from Michigan.
- Tom Vilsack, governor of Iowa. [7]
- Mark Warner, governor of Virginia (term limited, he will leave that office in 2006)
- Lamar Alexander, U.S. senator from Tennessee and former governor of Tennessee, former U.S. secretary of education and 1996 and 2000 nomination candidate
- George Allen, U.S. senator from Virginia and former governor
- Haley Barbour, governor of Mississippi and former chair of the Republican National Committee.
- Sherwood Boehlert, U.S. congressman from New York.
- Sam Brownback, U.S. senator from Kansas
- Jeb Bush, governor of Florida (term limited, he will leave that office in 2007) and brother of President George W. Bush. Has said he will not seek the nomination [8]
- Herman Cain, 2000 nomination candidate, 2004 U.S. Senate candidate, former national tax reform commission member (Georgia)
- Norm Coleman, U.S. senator from Minnesota
- Nathan Deal, U.S. congressman from Georgia.
- Elizabeth Dole, U.S. senator from North Carolina and chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
- Bob Ehrlich, governor of Maryland.
- Jerry Falwell, TV evangelist
- Ernie Fletcher, governor of Kentucky
- Steve Forbes, businessman (publishing), candidate for nominations in 1996 and 2000
- Tommy Franks, retired Army general (Texas); commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East until July 2003
- Bill Frist, Senate majority leader and U.S. senator from Tennessee (not seeking re-election to the Senate in 2006).
- Newt Gingrich, see active candidates above.
- Rudy Giuliani, see active candidates above.
- Alberto Gonzales, U.S. attorney general (Texas)
- Charles Grassley, U.S. senator from Iowa
- Kenny Guinn, governor of Nevada (term limited, he will leave that office in 2007)
- Chuck Hagel, U.S. senator from Nebraska
- Orrin Hatch, U.S. senator from Utah, 2000 nomination candidate
- Mike Huckabee, governor of Arkansas (term limited, he will leave that office in 2007)
- Kay Bailey Hutchison, U.S. senator from Texas
- Gary Johnson, former governor of New Mexico and advocate for drug legalization
- Alan Keyes, former ambassador to UNESCO; three-time candidate for the United States Senate; two-time candidate for the Republican nomination for president, former 2004 Illinois Senate candidate.
- Steve Largent, former U.S. congressman from Oklahoma.
- Rick Lazio, former U.S. congressman from New York.
- Rush Limbaugh, radio talk show host.
- John McCain, see active candidates above.
- Robert Novak, Conservative columnist.
- Bill O'Reilly, journalist and host of The O'Reilly Factor. Also mentioned as an Independent.
- Bill Owens, governor of Colorado (term limited, he will leave that office in 2007)
- George Pataki, see active candidates above.
- Mike Pence, US Congressman of Indiana and Chairman of Republican Study Committee
- Rick Perry, governor of Texas
- Colin Powell, former U.S. Secretary of State, retired U.S. Army general and former National Security Advisor and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He has said he will never run for president, or any other office. (New York)
- Dan Quayle, former vice president and 2000 nomination candidate and former U.S. senator and representative from Indiana .
- Jack Quinn, former U.S. congressman from New York.
- Ralph Reed, former executive director of the Christian Coalition
- Condoleezza Rice, U.S. Secretary of State (California)
- Tom Ridge, first U.S. secretary of homeland security and former governor of Pennsylvania
- Mitt Romney, see active candidates above.
- Mark Sanford, governor of South Carolina.
- Rick Santorum, U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, chairman of the Senate Republican Conference (third-highest rank in Republican caucus). He faces a tough senate reelection bid in 2006.
- Joe Scarborough, former U.S. congressman from Florida, host of Scarborough Country on MSNBC.
- Robert C. Smith, former U.S. senator from New Hampshire, and 2000 nomination candidate.
- Olympia Snowe, U.S. senator from Maine
- Ted Stevens, U.S. senator from Alaska.
- Pat Toomey, President of the Club for Growth and former Congressman from Pennsylvania
- George Voinovich, U.S. senator and former governor from Ohio and former mayor of Cleveland
- J.C. Watts, former U.S. representative from Oklahoma
- Christine Todd Whitman, former governor of New Jersey, and former head of the EPA.
- Michael Badnarik, see active candidates above.
- Bob Barr, former Republican U.S. representative, Georgia, publicly endorsed the Libertarian ticket in the 2004 election
- Lance Brown, see active candidates above.
- Michael Cloud, speechwriter
- Michael Colley, retired Navy Admiral
- James Gray, judge
- Carla Howell, management consultant
- K. Judy, former Hawaii Supreme Court Judge
- Gary Nolan, radio host
- Ron Paul, Republican U.S. representative, Texas and 1988 Libertarian presidential nominee
- Aaron Russo, entertainment businessman
- L. Neil Smith, science fiction writer
- Medea Benjamin, founder of Global Exchange and Code Pink
- Peter Camejo, businessman and Ralph Nader's 2004 vice-presidential nominee
- David Cobb, lawyer, activist and 2004 presidential nominee
- Matt Gonzalez, former president of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors
- Winona LaDuke, activist and 1996 and 2000 vice-presidential nominee
- Pat LaMarche, activist and 2004 vice-presidential nominee. Has said she will not run for "any office [she] cannot win".
- Cynthia McKinney, Democratic U.S. representative, Georgia [9]
- Don Dwyer, a Republican member of the Maryland House of Delegates
Other parties and independents
- Tom Brokaw, retired NBC anchorman (also mentioned as a Democrat.)
- Pat Buchanan, America First Party, 2000 Presidential candidate on the Reform Party ticket
- Ralph Nader, 1996, 2000 and 2004 Presidential candidate
- Jon Stewart, host of The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. Fans have started a website hoping he will run. [10]
- Donald Trump, stated to Newsweek Magazine in an interview that he planned to once again seek a Presidential bid in 2008.
- Jesse Ventura, former Governor of Minnesota and professional wrestler (who announced his intention to run in 2008 at WrestleMania XX on March 14 2004)
It is also conceivable that a candidate for a major party nomination who did not win that nomination might seek the presidency as an other party or independent candidate; contemporary examples include John B. Anderson, Republican nomination candidate and Independent general election candidate in the 1980 election, and Buchanan, Republican nomination candidate in the 1992, 1996 and initially prospective candidate in the 2000 election primaries but then Reform Party general election candidate in the 2000 election.
Possible Constitutional amendments
There has been some discussion recently of amending the Constitution to remove the absolute requirement that only natural-born citizens may become President. It would require 2/3rds favorable votes by both houses of congress and ratification by 3/4ths of the states. This proposal has been advanced 26 times since the 1870's without even moving to a congressional floor vote. In the extremely unlikely event that a strong consensus developed and the amendment won swift enough passage to allow such a change to occur in time for the 2008 elections, possible candidates for President or Vice President who are naturalized citizens and who have lived in the United States a minimum length of time (20 years in Senator Orrin Hatch's proposal) would include Democratic Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm, born in Canada; Republican Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez, born in Cuba; Republican Secretary of Labor Elaine Chao, born in Taiwan; Democratic former Secretary of State Madeline Albright, born in Czechoslovakia; Republican U.S. Senator from Florida Mel Martinez, born in Cuba; and Republican California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, born in Austria. Alternative proposals requiring 35 years residency or phasing the measure in 10 years in the future would effectively remove the prospects that passing the measure would benefit these prominent individuals in 2008.
The possible repeal or amendment of Amendment XXII to allow a President to seek election to a third or further term has also come under some discussion. One proposal would allow a President to serve only two consecutive terms but seek to return after a respite. The only living former president who has served two terms is Bill Clinton. George W. Bush is also unable to run again. If sentiments across party lines looked favorably on a contest between George W. Bush and Bill Clinton in 2008, when both men would be 62, 2012, when both would be 66, or at a later date, or a potential candidacy by either individually, a repeal or change to this term limit might find support.
Opinion polling
General Election
Poll Source | Date | Democrat | % | Republican | % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quinnipiac University Poll | Dec. 7-12, 2004 | Hillary Clinton | 43% | Rudy Giuliani | 45% |
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics | Dec. 14-15, 2004 | Hillary Clinton | 40% | Bill Frist | 33% |
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics | Dec. 14-15, 2004 | Hillary Clinton | 41% | George Pataki | 35% |
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics | Dec. 14-15, 2004 | Hillary Clinton | 46% | Jeb Bush | 35% |
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics | Dec. 14-15, 2004 | John Kerry | 45 % | Jeb Bush | 37% |
Democratic Candidate
Poll Source | Date | Highlights |
---|---|---|
Gallup Poll | Nov. 7-10, 2004 | Hillary Clinton 25%, John Kerry 15%, John Edwards 7% |
Ipsos-Public Affairs | Dec. 17-19, 2004 | Hillary Clinton 33%, John Kerry 19%, John Edwards 15%, Wesley Clark 11% |
Ipsos-Public Affairs | Dec. 17-19, 2004 | Hillary Clinton 33%, John Kerry 19%, John Edwards 15%, Wesley Clark 11% |
CNN/U.S.A Today/Gallup | Feb. 10th, 2005 | Hillary Clinton 40%, John Kerry 25%, John Edwards 17%, Other 6% |
Republican Candidate
Poll Source | Date | Highlights |
---|---|---|
Gallup Poll | Nov. 7-10, 2004 | John McCain 10%, Rudy Giuliani 10%, Colin Powell 7%, Jeb Bush 3% |
Ipsos-Public Affairs | Dec. 17-19, 2004 | Rudy Giuliani 29%,John McCain 25%, Bill Frist 7%,Jeb Bush 7% |
CNN/U.S.A Today/Gallup | Feb. 10th, 2005 | Rudy Giuliani 34%,John McCain 29%, Jeb Bush 12%,Bill Frist 6%, Other 7%
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Election results template
Presidential Candidate | Electoral Vote | Popular Vote | Pct | Party | Running Mate (Electoral Votes) |
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Other elections: 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020 | |||||
Source: U.S. Office of the Federal Register |