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2005 papal conclave

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The arms of the vacancy of the Holy See

Because of the death of Pope John Paul II on April 2, 2005, there will be a papal election in 2005 in which a new Pope of the Roman Catholic Church will be chosen. According to canon law the election process must begin between fifteen and twenty days following the previous pope's death (in this case between April 17 and April 22).

Papal election process

Main article: Papal election

A papal election is the process by which the College of Cardinals selects a new pope. It will be the first papal election subject to the rules set out in the Universi Dominici Gregis, a 1996 apostolic constitution. As of April 2 2005, there are 117 Cardinals who are under the age of 80 and therefore eligible to vote in a conclave. All but three of them were appointed by John Paul II. It was Pope Paul VI who decreed in 1971 that Cardinals over 80 as of the start of the conclave could no longer vote in papal elections, a rule modified by John Paul II to specify Cardinals aged over 80 when the Pope died. Paul VI also limited the maximum number of cardinal electors to 120, though John Paul II disregarded this limit when elevating cardinals. There are currently 183 cardinals in all.

Past voting records

After a long pontificate, the conclave traditionally selects an elderly cardinal, which inevitably leads to a brief, transitional pontificate: "After a fat pope a lean pope", as an Italian saying runs. One much speculated papabile is Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger who is 77 years old. He is a German social conservative who is Dean of the College of Cardinals and was the closest aide and confidant to Pope John Paul II. Particularly, he was known as the Pope's enforcer on matters of doctrine. Ratzinger is favored by those who want to preserve John Paul II's conservative views. However, others believe he will more likely be a 'king-maker' who could influence the decision on who becomes pope rather than be elected himself. Ratzinger is one of only three cardinals with right to vote who have taken part in a previous papal election.

New pope often strikingly different from predecessor

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Pope John XXIII (1958–1963) Not considered papabile, yet elected as Pope Pius XII's successor in 1958.

The newly elected pope often contrasts dramatically with his predecessor. The controversialist one-time populist turned conservative, long-lived Pope Pius IX was suceeded by the aristocratic diplomatic Pope Leo XIII (1878–1903). He in turn was succeeded by the lower class, bluntly outspoken Pope Pius X (1903–1914). Pius's rugged ultraconservatism contrasted with the effete, low-key moderatism of Giacomo Cardinal della Chiesa, Pope Benedict XV (1914–1922), which again contrasted with the former librarian mountain-climber Achille Cardinal Ratti, Pope Pius XI, who led Roman Catholicism with an authoritarianism more akin to Pope Pius X, who also shared his temper. Pius XI was replaced in 1939 by the aristocratic ultra-insider Curialist, Pius XI's Secretary of State, Pope Pius XII. Pius XII was seen as one of the great thinkers in the papacy in the 20th century. He was also the ultimate insider; his family were descended from the papal aristocracy, with his brother working as a lawyer for the Holy See. Pius was then replaced by the lower class, elderly, popular, informal Pope John XXIII (1958–1963). The contrast between diffident, intellectual and distant Pius XII and the humble, in his own words "ordinary" Good Pope John was dramatic, with none more surprised at the election than Pope John himself, who had his own return rail ticket in his pocket when he was elected.

John proved to be a radical break with the two previous popes, and indeed with most of the popes of the 20th century. After a short but dramatic pontificate, the surprise John was replaced by the widely expected victor Giovanni Cardinal Montini, whom many believed would have been elected in 1958, had he been a cardinal then. Montini, Pope Paul VI (1963–1978) like Pius XII, was a curialist. (He had worked with Pacelli in the 1930s and 1940s in the curia.) Yet Pope Paul was succeeded (albeit for a short time) by the non-Curialist Pope John Paul I, whom it was said was chosen not as an experienced insider nor administrator, but as a "simple, holy man." He in turn was succeeded by the non-Italian Pope John Paul II, who was an intellectual heavyweight unprecedented since Pius XII.

In that context, Ratzinger's views may prove to be too close to the late Pope John Paul II to mark a break. Past history would suggest the selection of someone less theological and charismatic, a more administrative pope, given that John Paul II was not noted as an administrator, but more of a thinker and world leader.

Cardinals do not always elect as pope a mirror-image of the pope who chose them

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Pope Pius XII (1939–1958) A rare example of a papabile cardinal who was elected.

Nor does the fact that 114 of the 117 cardinal-electors who will participate in the 2005 conclave were appointed by John Paul II mean that a new pope will be similar to John Paul. Past cardinals have often voted for someone radically different to the pope who appointed them. Few expected Angelo Roncalli to be chosen by a conclave many of whose cardinal-electors had been chosen by Pope Pius XII. In another example, most of the cardinal-electors in 1878 had been chosen by the right-wing Pius IX. Yet they chose the liberal Gioacchino Cardinal Pecci, who became Leo XIII. And many of Leo's chosen cardinal-electors, chosen by a liberal pope, chose the right wing lower class populist conservative, Giuseppe Melchiorre Cardinal Sarto.

Early speculations for 2005 conclave

There has been speculation since 2001 about who the next pope will be, and names of possible candidates have been floated in the press. These are unofficially known as the papabili, an Italian word which roughly translates as pope-able.

Early speculation, before John Paul II's final illness and death, drew attention to the fact that of the five nations with the largest Catholic populations, only one is European, that being Italy. Forty-six percent of the world's Catholics are in Latin America; the Philippines have more Catholics than Italy; some 120 million Catholics are in Africa. Yet 35 percent of the voting cardinals either officially represent an Italian diocese or work for the Vatican administration, the Curia. [1].

The papabili

A number of men have been mentioned as possible successors (ages in brackets):

Only three of the current voting cardinals, Baum, Ratzinger and Sin participated in the 1978 conclaves. Though Vaticanologists regard the current College of Cardinals as conservative, past history (the 1878, 1903 and 1958 conclaves offer clear examples) does not support the theory that a college of cardinals, even if picked by a pope clearly identified as conservative or liberal, and presumed to share his theological outlook, will necessarily vote for someone fitting the same category.

Among the presumptions of current vaticanologists are:

  • The College of Cardinals, though less of a European domination than before, is unlikely to opt this time for an African pope — the last pope from Africa being Pope Gelasius I (died in 496) — or one from the Philippines.
  • A selection of a pope from the United States or France would be seen as too controversial.
  • Italian cardinals wish to see the election of another Italian pope and so may rally around one unified Italian choice, rather than as in 1978 split into rival factions, allowing the selection of a non-Italian. (Media reports suggest that Cardinal Tellamanzi of Milan may well be the unified Italian candidate.) One should keep in mind how historically rare non-Italian popes are, the last non-Italian to ascend to the position before John Paul II was Pope Adrian VI almost five hundred years ago (1522–1523).
  • A Latin American pope is a strong possibility, and it would be a first in history; the Archbishops of Buenos Aires, São Paulo, Tegucigalpa and Mexico City are possible candidates, as are Colombian Cardinals Alfonso López Trujillo and Dario Castrillón Hoyos.

Three points are also important to note.

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Pope Paul VI (1963–1978) The most recent papabile cardinal to receive the papal tiara
  • Firstly, cardinals are not restricted to electing a pope from among themselves. In theory any practicing Roman Catholic male, and certainly any member of its clergy, is eligible for election. While the odds on that are slim (the last man not already a Cardinal at the time of his election was Pope Urban VI, who served from 1378 to 1379) Giovanni Montini (later Pope Paul VI) is rumoured to have received some votes in the 1958 conclave, even though at that stage he was still only Archbishop of Milan, having been inexplicably denied the expected red hat by Pope Pius XII. It is possible that some archbishop who cardinals believe should have been appointed to the College of Cardinals but who may have been overlooked by John Paul II, possibly because the late pope was too ill at the end to hold another consistory to appoint new cardinals, might be chosen.
  • Secondly, cardinal-electors may always elect one of the cardinals who cannot vote because they are over eighty years of age.
  • Thirdly, and crucially, papabile cardinals are not always elected pope. According to the old saying, "He who enters the conclave as Pope leaves it as a Cardinal." A man who enters the Conclave certain of victory in the election is often not the man finally selected to be pope. In 1978, one papabile cardinal who was seen as a strong contender for the papacy, was reported to have gone on a crash diet to fit the papal cassock. Instead Albino Cardinal Luciani, who was so convinced that he would not be elected that he never got his hair cut (as his official portrait showed) and whose feet were so swollen he could not wear new shoes bought for him by his family, was elected.

Facts from past conclaves in the 20th century

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Pope John Paul II (1978-2005) Not thought papabile yet elected.

Non-papabili elected pope

Papabili elected pope

'Certain of election' papabili who lost

Dioceses that produced popes in the 20th century

Average age of cardinals elected pope

65 years.

Age of 20th-century popes when they were elected

See also

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