Talk:(143649) 2003 QQ47
Does anyone remember the guy who got the news media to but an asteroid on the front page, a few years back? It was the same year that -- what a coincidence! -- Hollwood was releasing two different movies about asteroids threatening earth.
It might have made an even bigger "splash" if a woman at the Jet Propulsion Lab hadn't dug up an observation from 9 years earlier which showed that the asteroid had 'absolutely no chance at all of hitting earth.
Too bad Brian Madsen (sp?) didn't bother to talk to his colleagues in the field before going straight to the press. I wonder what motivates a man to do $omething like that? --Uncle Ed 14:07, 2 Sep 2003 (UTC)
Thanks for fixing this article, Anome. --Uncle Ed 14:24, 2 Sep 2003 (UTC) ---
Risk
- However, the odds of collision are considerably higher than those of winning many lotteries, or of dying in an air accident.
The probability that someone will win the lottery is 100%. The odds that your worst enemy will win might be as low as one in 100 million.
People are more scared of dying in an air accident, even though (mile for mile) they are more likely to die in a car accident.
All of this will become moot in a few months, when the asteroid is downgraded to 0 (absolutely no chance of hitting earth).
Why is it so important to tell people that preliminary data show an asteroid might come somewhere near earth? Why not wait 3 months until the astronomers can track it well enough to be sure? (Do we need the extra 3 months preparation time to launch the rocket ship with Bruce Willis in it?) --Uncle Ed 21:47, 2 Sep 2003 (UTC)
- It can be 'possible but not truely proved'. By the way, I don't have a worst enemy, so the chances are 1 in 0 (or would that be infinite? :P) Ilyanep 21:49, 2 Sep 2003 (UTC)
- Heh, heh. You mean "0 in 1", so the chance is 0%. I've taught SAT math prep classes (at rates 3 times higher than what Kaplan pays); if Kaplan pays $16/hr, how much did I make? [trick question, read the wording carefully and use a sharpened #2 pencil to mark your answer]. --Uncle Ed 21:55, 2 Sep 2003 (UTC)
Actually, it's really interesting to consider this sort of case. Low probability, but very high potential damage, and the computed probability will most almost certainly go towards zero soon -- unless, of course, it really is the Big One, in which case the probability will go towards one. There are lots of interesting philosophical issues here. Consider, for example, the similarity of this reasoning to the unexpected hanging paradox and other failures of inductive reasoning. -- The Anome 22:00, 2 Sep 2003 (UTC)