Talk:2005 Atlantic hurricane season
Gray's prediction
I don't think that the prediction will be correct; I think it will be yet another busy hurricane season in 2005...15 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, several landfalling hurricanes...
- We make no claims on Dr. Gray's accuracy. He's just noted for making the predictions, and there really isn't anything else to say about the 2005 season at this point. -- Cyrius|✎ 23:17, 4 Dec 2004 (UTC)
South Atlantic
Did we make it through March without any S. Atlantic activity? Quite a difference from the last few years. --Golbez 07:03, Apr 6, 2005 (UTC)
Pacific
Just to let y'all know I've started the sister page, 2005 Pacific hurricane season. Need to find pre-season forecasts... not sure where. --Golbez 20:22, Apr 8, 2005 (UTC)
- Well I have some for 2004, but I'm not sure where I got them from. :P --Golbez 17:57, Apr 11, 2005 (UTC)
Preseason thoughts
I'm going to predict that there will be 2 or 3 BIG storms this year.
Another interesting note: in each of the last 4 seasons, the "I" storm has been retired - I wonder if Irene will be one of the big ones of 2005? Also, no "B" storm has been retired since 1991, no "D" storm since 1990 and no "E" storm since 1985. If that trend continues then Bret, Dennis and Emily won't be real threats...
Bret about got his butt retired on two occations already: In 1993, Tropical Storm Bret killed over 100 people in Venezuela, but I guess the weasalish (affectionate term) WMO was bashful about retiring a tropical storm. In 1999, Hurricane Bret hit Texas as a Category 4, but it hit the least populated area on the entire Texas coast.
Emily has been the strongest storm of the season twice out of the four times she's been used. She hit Hispaniola in 1987 as a strong Category 3, but by some miraculous slight-of-hand, killed only 3 people and caused $65 million in damage. The other time (1993), she stayed out to sea, but reached Category 3 strength.
-E. Brown, Hurricane entusiast
- You're right, Emily actually was supposed to hit the North Carolina in 1993, but turned away at the last minute as a 120 mph hurricane (she undoubtedly would have been done for in 1993 had she came ashore), and Bret in 1999 was a rare event - a rather compact storm hitting in the middle of nowhere (it would have been like Charley hitting right there).
Another note: Barring a storm with 0 tropical storms (not going to happen), Arlene will be used for the 9th time, passing Frances (now retired). The earliest that another name could catch up is 2012, and that would only happen if Arlene is retired herself after 2005 (would likely need to either be a late-starting season, or be a real rainmaker for a June or early July storm to be retired) and Florence stays on after 2006 (not a given, since that would likely be a mid-season storm). No other names are even close.
True, but if you include different spellings of the same name then "Debby" will tie it in 2006. "Debby" has been used four times ('82,'88,'94,and '00)and "Debbie" has been used four times ('57,'61,'65,and '69).
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:51, 28 May 2005 (UTC)
New layout on NHC
Looks like www.nhc.noaa.gov has a new layout.. not sure if I like it. Have to wait for the first storm to see how it really looks. --Golbez 09:00, May 1, 2005 (UTC)
- Links! http://www.nhc.noaa.gov. Indeed, wait and see. --tomf688(talk) 15:24, May 1, 2005 (UTC)
- Easier to get an "at a glance" view of a storm with the thumbnails of the track forecast chart and the wind forecast chart right on the main page. -- Cyrius|✎ 18:07, 18 May 2005 (UTC)
Adrian ---> Arlene?
The forecast suggests that Tropical Storm Adrian in the Eastern Pacific will cross Central America and continue on in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. If it keeps or regains tropical storm strength, will it be renamed Arlene if such happens?
- Yes. -- Cyrius|✎ 17:00, 18 May 2005 (UTC)
Right. I wonder if it ever happened, that a storm "crossed over" in that direction into the Gulf and regained storm status. Awolf002 17:32, 18 May 2005 (UTC)
- For reasons that should be fairly clear, the reverse (Atlantic->Pacific) is more common than this case. There has been one instance since storm naming began, 1989's Tropical Storm Allison, which formed out of the remnants of Hurricane Cosme. The only other occurrence on record was in 1949. -- Cyrius|✎ 17:49, 18 May 2005 (UTC)
Cool, thanks! Let's hope this one just fizzles! Awolf002 18:16, 18 May 2005 (UTC)
Uuhhh... I read in one of the discussions on the NHC site that re-naming will depend on its tropical status. If it stays a tropical storm, it will keep its original name. If it fizzles and then some wave/remnant action create a new storm in the Carribean, it will have the Atlantic name. Does that jive with you guys? Here is the link [1] and the quote
- ONLY IF THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS THROUGHOUT ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND WOULD IT RETAIN THE NAME ADRIAN IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
Awolf002 20:10, 19 May 2005 (UTC)
- That makes sense; it's just extremely unlikely. In fact, based on what I know, it's never happened. When 2004A Earl crossed over and became 2004P Frank, (Hey, I actually like that kind of ID number), it changed names because it became a tropical depression. Central America, like Hispaniola, is death to cyclones, the mountains shred them to pieces. It's extremely unlikely that Adrian will survive the transition. I would wager a storm would have to be at least category 3 to survive the American spine. And thanks for pointing that out, Awolf :) --Golbez 20:50, May 19, 2005 (UTC)
- History contradicts that quote. 1996's Hurricane Cesar and 1988's Hurricane Joan both crossed into the Pacific while still at tropical storm strength, and both were renamed (to Douglas and Miriam). The intro to the Preliminary Report on Cesar states that all such storms are renamed. This argument could obviously be rendered moot by a change in practice in the last nine years. -- Cyrius|✎ 00:27, 20 May 2005 (UTC)
Isn't it also ironic that they both kept the same gender? (Cesar to Douglas, Joan to Miriam).
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:42, 28 May 2005 (UTC)
- To quote Bender, "that's not ironic, it's just coincidental." -- Cyrius|✎ 06:31, 29 May 2005 (UTC)
Wikinews
(crossposted from the pacific page)
OK, folks, this is a warmup for the much more important (at least as far as clicks are concerned, no one in Central America right now should take this as a slight. I mean for Wikipedia, for publicity, for getting our name out) Atlantic season. Last year, we either didn't have Wikinews, or none of us felt it up to snuff to either make articles for it, or link them if they did exist.
I'm making Wikinews for every major milestone along Adrian's course, and plan to make them for each subsequent storm, regardless of impact. (Well, I mean, I would make one about the formation of Karl, and maybe the dissipation, and that's it. And time will tell if this is necessary)
ANYWAY.
So far, I've linked every story (two so far) under Adrian. Now, this could get long for a large storm, but then again, a large storm will get its own article (Adrian will likely deserve one before the week is out) and thus have room for a long list of links.
Now imagine if we have another Hurricane Jeanne or Ivan this year, and everyone who comes to look at the article sees links to Wikinews articles.
I would daresay it's the best advertising Wikinews can get. We all know how powerful the storm articles were last year; the Hurricane Frances article was, IIRC (And I could be very wrong), for a while, the most read article on Wikipedia. If we even only get 1% of clickthroughs to Wikinews, that could be a huge boon for that site; maybe they're better off, I don't know, I've been remiss in my duties there.
My point is, let's see how this style works here, and I suggest we implement it on the Atlantic page. It couldn't hurt. Yes, the Wikinews article at present is mostly a clone of the Wikipedia article, but the differences are, the Wikinews article has the ability to expand beyond that, especially with local reports which would be just awesome. Also, the Wikinews article will still be there - so even after this article says "Adrian dissipated on this and that date", there will still be articles chronicling its formation, strengthening, strike, and effects. So while Wikipedia remains up to date, Wikinews serves as a useful archive outside of the history page.
Any comments? --Golbez 18:29, May 19, 2005 (UTC)
- Since Adrian is only a Category 1 storm now, and Pacific retirements are much rarer, it should be Hurricane Adrian (2005). If it reforms into Arlene, then Tropical Storm Arlene (2005) or Hurricane Arlene (2005) should redirect to that page. (Unless Arlene makes a name for herself)
- 1) Please sign your comments with ~~~~.
- 2) I disagree. Until I have another Adrian article, there's no reason to quantify it with a year. Furthermore, Pacific retirements are much rarer because deadly storms are much rarer - that doesn't mean a deadly storm has less chance of being retired. As for what happens if Adrian survives to be Arlene, we should discuss that, and have a plan ready just in case. It's all moot if neither storm warrants their own article; then we can just redirect the names to the proper season, and then cross-link. If one or the other, or god forbid BOTH, warrant an article, then we have to figure out the logistics. if Adrian becomes worthy, then Arlene should redirect to the Atlantic page with a short mention that it used to be Adrian, unless Arlene is similarly notable, in which case it might be better to merge the two articles into some "Hurricane Adrian/Hurricane Arlene" amalgam - but thankfully, we don't need to cross that bridge til we reach it. --Golbez 08:08, May 20, 2005 (UTC)
- Well, Adrian has rendered this moot by letting itself get torn apart by the terrain. Between the shear the NHC is talking about, and the low Caribbean water temperatures, it's not looking like we'll have to deal with it this year. -- Cyrius|✎ 17:37, 20 May 2005 (UTC)
Let the Games Begin
The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season begins quietly today. Much of Florida still lies in ruins. Destruction on this scale has not been seen since Hurricane Andrew. Those affected by Andrew, however had the fortune in their misfortune to have two quiet seasons follow so they could rebuild. The victims of Nature's merciless quartet, as well as those of rainy Gaston, are not expected to have the same blessing. In fact, usually after a bad storm, the following season is quiet. (Fran in '96 followed by a quiet '97, Allen in '80 followed by a quiet '81 and '82, and plenty of other examples). Nature's lack of pity, mercy, and utter relentlessness have rarely been so brutally displayed. I just don't see how Florida could take another bad season.
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 17:08, 1 Jun 2005 (UTC)
- Hey, I live in Florida, and we're hardy enough for this! And, btw, I heard of a popular movement to replace the current state flag with nice rectangular piece of blue tarp. Hah!! Awolf002 17:28, 1 Jun 2005 (UTC)
- I was going to say something about how bad seasons aren't really followed by quiet seasons, but then I looked at the 1950-2004 ACE graph. Up until the mid-1990s, it's fairly well true. Until then, almost every season significantly above the normal level was followed by a much less active season.
- So, yes, 1996 was followed by the very quiet 1997 season, but 1995 was the second most active season on record. The 1998 season featured the terrible Georges and the horrendous Mitch, but was followed by 1999, the season of Floyd and Lenny. And let's not forget that 2003 was an active year too.
- Also remember that a relatively inactive season can still be an extremely destructive one. Andrew, anyone? And even apparently minor tropical storms can be incredibly destructive. -- Cyrius|✎ 22:44, 1 Jun 2005 (UTC)
- Not to mention that many MAJOR hurricanes are not destructive - usually at least once a year a strong Category 3 or 4 hurricane will not threaten land (can't remember the last time a Category 5 hurricane never touched land - the last storm of Cat 5 intensity to not be retired was Edith (1971) and that still made landfall as a Cat 5)...
- A hurricane season could have only 1 storm forming, but that storm could be a Cat 5 hurricane hitting a major city head-on (and obviously catastrophic), and likewise, a season could have 20 storms but (by luck) no major landfalls...24.226.10.99 23:55, 1 Jun 2005 (UTC)
The only reason Jeanne did not do as much damage as the other Florida hurricanes last year was because by the time Jeanne got to Florida, there wasn't much left to destroy. With reference to an earlier comment, the 1999 season did not affect the hardest hit areas from the 1998 season. The most affected was the Lesser Antilles, hard-hit by Georges in 1998, it was affected by Hurricane Jose and further devastated by Lenny in 1999. This example merely proves that bad seasons can happen in succession. Fortunately, they are infrequent. Nor has it been really proven that this season will be another bad one for Florida. Arlene looks like it's headed toward Mississippi on a track eerily similar to that of Camille. We just have to wait and see.
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 18:40, 9 Jun 2005 (UTC)
June
Week 1
It seems there's some stuff trying to happen. That non-tropical thing in the eastern Gulf just isn't going away, and now they're saying it's developing low pressure just inside the Caribbean. The Gulf's still a bit cool for tropical activity, being just barely over the magic 80°F (26.5°C) mark [2]. However, the Caribbean is about five degrees F warmer. Statistically, the most likely place to have a tropical cyclone in June is right where all that activity is happening, and there's a smaller box of activity where that tropical wave is entering the Caribbean.
If you're interested in that "recently installed NOAA buoy" mentioned in the outlook, take a look at the NDBC Western Caribbean map. Click on the label for the buoy's observations. It's the only one there, so it's not hard to find. -- Cyrius|✎ 22:17, 3 Jun 2005 (UTC)
Something's brewing. It's in the Tropical Weather Outlook, and tomorrow's aircraft reconnaissance plan has them preparing for the first tropical depression of the season. -- Cyrius|✎ 20:25, 7 Jun 2005 (UTC)
- And now the discussion: "Possible tropical cyclone is within 36 hours from 15N-20N between 82W-87W." -- Cyrius|✎ 00:36, 8 Jun 2005 (UTC)
- Aye, 90L INVEST has been tagged. Based on preliminaries, it looks like it will head north to the Gulf Coast; at what strength (a vague area of thunderstorms or more), we don't yet know. --Golbez 18:00, Jun 8, 2005 (UTC)
- And it's now Tropical Depression One. --Goobergunch|? 21:31, 8 Jun 2005 (UTC)
- Since 1) There are ALREADY watches up [Cuba] and 2) It is likely to become Tropical Storm Arlene, would it be premature to make a Storm section for TD1? --Golbez 22:11, Jun 8, 2005 (UTC)
Premature, yes. While the NHC is forecasting it to strengthen, it could also do just the opposite and dissipate. Just wait a few more days and see what happens. --tomf688(talk) 22:17, Jun 8, 2005 (UTC)
- Agreed. Wikipedia can wait for stuff to happen. However, Golbez wanted to do the Wikinews thing this year, and first system of the season would fit well over there. -- Cyrius|✎ 22:18, 8 Jun 2005 (UTC)
- It's officially Tropical Storm Arlene now. This is the ninth time Arlene has been used, regaining the title of the most used name (which it will hold for a while)24.226.10.99 16:02, 9 Jun 2005 (UTC)
Hey, not so fast there chief. If you include different spellings of the same name, Debby/Debbie has been used 8 times. When Debby forms next season it will tie Arlene. By the way, if anyone cares, Arlene formed on my sixteenth birthday. Quite a treat for a hurricane freak.
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 18:24, 9 Jun 2005 (UTC)
Week 2
Current subjects: Arlene, possibly bringing heavy rainfall to Cuba and the Gulf Coast, and just-tagged 91L INVEST, well northeast of Puerto Rico. As for Wikinews, I'm better at writing wire reports and headlines than at writing articles, but I think Wikinews might be able to handle itself. Hopefully. If not, I can write up a quick blurb. --Golbez 17:33, Jun 9, 2005 (UTC)
- I'm not that familiar with Wikinews policies, but I wrote up wikinews:First tropical storm of 2005 season forms in the Atlantic based on the lates advisory. --Goobergunch|? 17:54, 9 Jun 2005 (UTC)
- Heh, whoops, I just wrote Wikinews:Tropical Storm Arlene forms, threatens Cuba, U.S.. --Golbez 18:02, Jun 9, 2005 (UTC)
Check out forecast/advisory 10 on Arlene:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
That's the distance of windspeeds from the center. Check out how empty the southwest quadrant is; if this storm had an eye, it would virtually be open to clear skies in the southwest. This almost resembles a subtropical storm. Nearly all of the strength is in the northeast.--Golbez 21:08, Jun 10, 2005 (UTC)
- The storm's been under heavy shear since before it formed. What's amazing is that it's managed to make it almost to hurricane strength with its top blown off (and it'll probably get the extra 4mph in the next few hours). -- Cyrius|✎ 01:40, 11 Jun 2005 (UTC)
- Not to mention the fact that the soon-to-be-Hurricane Arlene has no profile at all on its west side...meaning areas to the west of the "eye" will likely get only wind, not much rain...she is just trying to concentrate her energy in one small area! This reminds me of the "forgotten" Allison of early June 1995 (in between the two devastating Allisons) which somehow made it up to Category 1 hurricane strength on nearly an identical path. The intense shear and dry air could mean it could become a hurricane in open water but return to being a tropical storm at landfall. 24.226.10.99 04:23, 11 Jun 2005 (UTC)
Arlene ain't a hurricane yet, but it still has a chance to before it hits land but it's running out of water. An eye is now visible on the satellite pictures so it looks like Arlene is trying to get those 4 stinking miles per hour, but with hurricane warnings now out, the people of Gulf Shores probably see it as a hurricane anyway. Florida tore Arlene's tail off. Now she's just an ugly little fireball.
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 16:50, 11 Jun 2005 (UTC)
The HPC has finally gone quiet on Arlene, since it took so long I felt it might have warranted mention on the timeline. Also, we have 92L.INVEST southest of Hispaniola. --Golbez 22:18, Jun 13, 2005 (UTC)
- "est" is vague. :) And yeah, I did. And do any of you else disagree with Awolf's addition of a bold summary to Arlene? I won't revert it without discussing, but it seemed a bit out of place. --Golbez 02:16, Jun 14, 2005 (UTC)