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Template:Ongoing weather Template:Infobox hurricane season active The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. It officially started June 1, 2007, and will last until November 30, 2007, dates that conventionally delimit the period when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin during the year.

Seasonal forecasts

Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, Dr. William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University; and separately by NOAA forecasters.

Klotzbach's team (formerly led by Dr. Gray) defined the average number of storms per season (1950 to 2000) as 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms exceeding Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 6 to 14 named storms, with 4 to 8 of those reaching hurricane strength, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes.[1][2]

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2007 season
Source Date Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
CSU Average (1950–2000)[1] 9.6 5.9 2.3
NOAA Average (1950–2005)[2] 11.0 6.2 2.7
Record high activity 28 15 8
Record low activity 4 2 0
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
CSU December 8, 2006 14 7 3
CSU April 3, 2007 17 9 5
NOAA May 22, 2007 13–17 7–10 3–5
CSU May 31, 2007 17 9 5
UKMO June 19, 2007 9–15 N/A N/A
CSU August 3, 2007 15 8 4
NOAA August 9, 2007 13–16 7–9 3–5
CSU September 4, 2007 15 7 4
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Actual activity 9 3 2

Pre-season forecasts

On December 8, 2006, Klotzbach's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2007 season, predicting above-average activity (14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of Category 3 or higher).[1]

The team predicted a high potential for at least one major hurricane to directly impact the United States: the forecast indicated a 64% chance of at least one major hurricane striking the U.S. mainland, which included a 40% chance of at least one major hurricane strike on the East Coast of the United States including the Florida peninsula, and a 40% chance of at least one major hurricane strike on the Gulf Coast of the United States from the Florida Panhandle westward. The potential for major hurricane activity in the Caribbean was forecast to be above average, and the team predicted El Niño to dissipate by the active portion of the season.[1]

On April 3 a new forecast was issued, calling for a very active hurricane season of 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 intense hurricanes.[3]

The increase in the forecast was attributed to the rapid dissipation of El Niño conditions. The team also forecast a neutral or weak-to-moderate La Niña for the hurricane season, and noted that sea surface temperatures were much higher than long-term averages.[4] The potential for at least one major hurricane impacting the U.S. was increased to 74%, with the U.S. East Coast potential increased to 50% and from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas increased to 49%.[4] However, Klotzbach noted that while they were calling for an active season, it was not forecast to be "as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons".[3]

On May 22, 2007, NOAA released their pre-season forecast for the 2007 season. They predicted 13 to 17 named storms, with 7 to 10 becoming hurricanes, and 3 to 5 becoming major hurricanes.[5]

One day before the official start of the season, the CSU team issued their final set of pre-season forecasts, making no change to the numbers from their April forecast.[6]

On June 19, 2007, The United Kingdom Met Office released[7] predictions for the remainder of the season based on a new prediction model. The Met Office predicted 10 named storms, not including Andrea and Barry, with a 70% chance of 7–13 named storms. The forecast did not include specific predictions for the number of hurricanes or major hurricanes.[7]

Midseason outlooks

On August 3, 2007, Klotzbach's team lowered their season estimate to 15 named storms, with 8 becoming hurricanes and 4 becoming major hurricanes. They noted that conditions had become slightly less favorable for storms than they were earlier in the year. Sea surface temperature anomalies were cooler, and there were several incidences of Saharan Air Layer outbreaks. ENSO conditions were also noted to have been slightly cooler.[8]

On August 9, 2007, the NOAA revised their season estimate slightly downwards to 13–16 named storms, with 7–9 becoming hurricanes and 3–5 becoming major hurricanes. However, they reaffirmed their call for an above-average season. They attributed the increase in confidence of an above-average season to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in parts of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, as well as an updated forecast that La Niña conditions were likely during the peak of the season.[9]

On September 4, 2007, Klotzbach's team lowered their season estimate to 15 named storms, with 7 becoming hurricanes and 4 becoming major hurricanes.[10]

Storms

Subtropical Storm Chau

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;

Tropical Storm Chau

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;

Tropical Storm Chau

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;

Hurricane Chau

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;

Tropical Storm Chau

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;

Hurricane Chau

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;

Tropical Storm Chau

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;


Tropical Storm Chau

Tropical Storm Chau
Current storm status
Tropical depression (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:5 p.m. AST (2100 UTC) September 15
Location:16.5°N 55.0°W ± 30 nm
About 425 mi (685 km) E of the Lesser Antilles
Sustained winds:30 knots | 35 mph | 55 km/h (1-min mean)
gusting to 40 knots | 45 mph | 75 km/h
Pressure:1006 mbar (hPa) | 29.71 inHg
Movement:W at 10 kt | 12 mph | 19 km/h
See more detailed information.


Current storm information

As of 5 p.m. AST (2100 UTC) September 15, Tropical Depression Chau is located within 30 nautical miles of 16.5°N 55.0°W, about 425 mi (685 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Maximum sustained winds are 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 InHg), and the system is moving west at 10 kt (12 mph, 19 km/h).


Hurricane Chau

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;




Timeline of recent events

Timeline of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season

September

September 7
September 8
  • 5 p.m. CDT (2100 UTC): Subtropical Storm Chau is reclassified as Tropical Storm Chau.
September 9
September 10
  • 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC): Tropical Storm Chau is downgraded to a tropical depression.
September 11
  • 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC): Final advisory issued on weakening Tropical Depression Chau.
September 12
  • 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC): Tropical Depression Eight forms east of the Lesser Antilles.
  • 10 a.m. CDT (1500 UTC): Tropical Depression Nine forms in the Gulf of Mexico, southeast of Houston, Texas.
  • 1 p.m. CDT (1800 UTC): Tropical Depression Nine is upgraded to Tropical Storm Chau.
September 13
  • 12:15 a.m. CDT (0515 UTC): Tropical Storm Chau is upgraded to Hurricane Humberto.
  • 2:10 a.m. CDT (0710 UTC): Hurricane Chau makes landfall just east of High Island, Texas with 85 mph (135 km/h)
  • 10 a.m. CDT (1500 UTC): Hurricane Chau is downgraded to a tropical storm.
  • 4 p.m. CDT (2100 UTC): Tropical Storm Chau is downgraded to a tropical depression and the NHC issues its final advisory.
  • 11 p.m. AST (0300 UTC September 14): Tropical Depression Eight is upgraded to Tropical Storm Chau.
September 14
  • 4 p.m. CDT (2100 UTC): Last HPC advisory issued on Tropical Depression Chau as it becomes a remnant low.
September 15
  • 11 a.m. AST (1500 UTC): Tropical Storm Chau is downgraded to a tropical depression.

Storm names

The following names will be used for named storms that form in the Atlantic basin in 2007.

  • Chau
  • Chau
  • Chau
  • Chau
  • Chau
  • Chau
  • Chau
  • Chau
  • Chau (active)
  • Chau (unused)
  • Chau (unused)
  • Chau (unused)
  • Chau (unused)
  • Chau (unused)
  • Chau (unused)
  • Chau (unused)
  • Chau (unused)
  • Chau (unused)
  • Chau (unused)
  • Chau (unused)
  • Chau (unused)

See also

Template:Tcportal

References

  1. ^ a b c d Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2006-12-08). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2007". Colorado State University. Retrieved 2006-12-08. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  2. ^ a b Climate Prediction Center (2006-08-08). "BACKGROUND INFORMATION: THE NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2006-12-08. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  3. ^ a b "Colorado State forecast team calls for very active 2007 hurricane season". Colorado State University. 2007-04-03. Retrieved 2007-04-03. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  4. ^ a b Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2007-04-03). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2007". Colorado State University. Retrieved 2007-04-03. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  5. ^ NOAA (2007-05-22). "NOAA Predicts Above Normal 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2007-05-22. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  6. ^ Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2007-05-31). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2007". Colorado State University. Retrieved 2007-05-31. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  7. ^ a b UK Met Office (2007-06-19). "Met Office: Tropical cyclone forecast verification". UK Met Office. Retrieved 2007-06-24. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  8. ^ Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2007-08-03). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2007" (PDF). Colorado State University. Retrieved 2007-08-03. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |year= (help)CS1 maint: year (link)
  9. ^ NOAA (2007-08-09). "NOAA updates Atlantic hurricane season outlook". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2007-08-09. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |year= (help)CS1 maint: year (link)
  10. ^ Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2007-09-04). "FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FOR SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER 2007 AND SEASONAL UPDATE THROUGH AUGUST" (PDF). Colorado State University. Retrieved 2007-09-04. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |year= (help)CS1 maint: year (link)

Template:2000-2009 Atlantic hurricane seasons

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