Distance in military affairs

Geographic distance is a key factor in military affairs. The shorter the distance the greater the ease with which force can be brought to bear upon an opponent. This is because it is easier to undertake the supply of logistics to a force on the ground as well as engage in bombardment.

Theory

It has been argued by academics and politicians that distance has declined in importance. According to Kenneth Boulding there was a 20th century revolution undermining the importance of distance. A more recent supporter of this view is Doug Bandow who has said that technology has reduced the value of proximity.

This theory has political backing. In 2004, President George W. Bush announced that American armed forces had become “better able to strike anywhere in the world over great distances.” As a result it has influenced public policy and is being used as reason for the United States to withdraw forces from overseas bases.

Theory questioned

A counterview that distance has remained of continued importance in military affairs has been put by Kieran Webb. This is based upon two factors; the competitive nature of war and the impermanence of great power status. This view thus puts into question the US program of forces withdrawal from overseas bases.

Distance and logistics

According to Webb, the supply of forces over a given distance is not getting any easier with time. This is because the cost of transport is said to possess a linear cost relationship with military supplies. This means that as transport costs fall with time, so the cost of supplies also falls. And as the prices of both fall, so the competitive circumstances of war mean that advantage will be taken of the falling costs to send more supplies. The result of this is thus to neutralize any easing of transport so that distance retains its importance as a hindrance to movement. Evidence for this is found from comparison of the logistics efforts of the Boer War and the First Gulf War fought at either end of the 20th century. Both saw transport difficulties necessitate similar effort placed upon forward sourcing of supplies. In addition to this, Webb also points to evidence from the commercial world. The linear cost relationship between transport and goods carried is the reason that an average distance of trade in 1962 of 4,790 kilometers had little changed at 4,938 kilometers in 2000.

To be sure, such a linear cost relationship between transport and supplies does not apply in all circumstances. In a situation where a great power faces a more poorly financed opponent, supplies will become more expensive relative to the cost of transport. Military equipment is increased in cost because it is produced in shorter production runs that are ironically the result of efforts to economize. This has been termed the Upward Spiral. With transport costs relatively less important, distance is less important, and so also is the advantage to be gained from forward bases. However, Webb finds the Upward Spiral to be temporary owing to the impermanence of great power status. One cannot rule out the possibility for example of great power confrontation between the US and China resulting in increased military expenditure with lengthier equipment production runs that bring down unit costs.

Moreover, even when a great power faces a lesser opponent, supplies are often pre-paid. Because their cost is nothing at the time of fighting they maintain a constant linear relationship with transport costs regardless of any changes in those costs over time. This is because any number divided by zero equals zero. As a result, in such a circumstance, distance retains its importance.

Even the speed at which logistics can be supplied is said not to have made distance any less important. To be sure, quicker response means that territory can be defended rather than taken back at a later date. As defence of territory is easier than attack so the faster that forces arrive the better. American doctrine is that an attacker should be at least three and possibly up to five times stronger than a defending opponent. But according to Webb, the overall pace at which logistics can be delivered between continents is said to have been little altered despite technological advancement during the 20th century. This is because airlift, the fastest means of supply, he says "costs too much and delivers too little." Thus, by far most logistics movement continues to be conducted by sea, which is a mode of transport that has seen little improvement in speed since the beginning of the 20th century, because of limits imposed by physics.

Distance and bombardment

Webb also discusses the possibility for strategic bombardment as a means to prevail over an opponent from afar. His view is that there are circumstances where it can provide success. The Kosovo air campaign of 1999 is used as a example. However, here too the circumstance are said to be temporary. The political circumstances of the Serb regime made it especially susceptible to precision air power. Moreover, the impermanence of great power status means that one should not always find an opponent so much smaller than oneself. As a result, forward located forces will continue to be needed to fight the opponent on the ground. Webb concludes that distance has not been made less important on a permanent basis.

References

Doug Bandow, ‘Quick and Full Disengagement’, Cato Institute, 23 August 2004, http://www.cato.org/dailys/08-23-04-2.html

Kenneth Boulding, Conflict and Defense, (New York: Harper, 1962)

President George W. Bush, speech at Veterans of Foreign Wars Convention, Cincinnati, 16 August 2004, Office of the Press Secretary, The White House, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/08/20040816-12.html

Kieran Webb, 'The Continued Importance of Geographic Distance and Boulding's Loss of Strength Gradient', Comparative Strategy, Volume 26 Issue 4, 2007: 295 – 310

See also:

• Upward Spiral