Zimbabwean presidential election, 2008

Zimbabwean presidential election, 2008

March 29, 2008

File:Morgan Tsvangirai.jpg File:Simba Makoni.png Candidate Morgan Tsvangirai Robert Mugabe Simba Makoni Party Movement for Democratic Change ZANU–PF Independent

Incumbent President Robert Mugabe ZANU–PF

Zimbabwe held a presidential election along with a parliamentary election on March 29, 2008. The three major candidates were Robert Mugabe of the Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and Simba Makoni, an independent. The election was expected, because of Zimbabwe's dire economic situation, to provide President Mugabe with his toughest electoral challenge to date. Mugabe's opponents have been critical of the handling of the electoral process, and the government has been accused of planning to rig the election; Human Rights Watch said that the election was likely to be "deeply flawed".

No official results have been released; the failure to release results has been strongly criticized by the MDC, which is seeking an order from the High Court that would force their release. An independent projection placed Tsvangirai in the lead, but without the majority needed to avoid a second round. The MDC has, however, declared that Tsvangirai won a narrow majority in the first round and has refused to participate in any second round. ZANU-PF has said that Mugabe will participate in a second round if one is necessary; however, ZANU-PF is alleging that some electoral officials, in connection with the MDC, fraudulently reduced Mugabe's score, and the party has requested a recount.

Background

Proposal and announcement (2006–January 2008)

In late 2006 a plan was proposed that would have delayed the election to 2010, at the same time as the next parliamentary election, which was said to be a cost-saving measure. This would have lengthened President Mugabe's term by two years. However, there was reportedly dissent within the ruling ZANU-PF regarding the proposal, and it was never approved. In March 2007, Mugabe said that he thought the feeling in the party favored having the presidential election in 2008, and moving the parliamentary election up by two years instead. He also said that he would be willing to stand for another term if chosen by the party. On March 30, 2007, it was announced that the ZANU-PF Central Committee had chosen Mugabe as the party's candidate for another term in 2008, that presidential terms would be reduced to five years instead of six, and that the parliamentary election would also be held in 2008. Later, information was leaked from the same meeting that ZANU-PF had adopted the position of making Mugabe president-for-life.

In 2006, ZANU-PF National Chairman John Nkomo was one of the first to announce he would be ready to contest the election for ZANU-PF if Mugabe chose to retire. Abel Muzorewa, the only prime minister of Zimbabwe Rhodesia, suggested on 21 June 2007 that he might run, claiming that people were urging him to do so.

Mugabe was chosen by acclamation as ZANU-PF's presidential candidate for the 2008 election by delegates at a December 2007 party congress. John Nkomo said that he "did not hear any dissenting voices" and that the congress had "fully and unreservedly" backed Mugabe.

On January 25 2008, the date of the election was announced as March 29. A spokesperson for the faction of the MDC led by Morgan Tsvangirai denounced this as "an act of madness and arrogance", while the leader of the other MDC faction, Arthur Mutambara, said that a free and fair election could not be held under the existing conditions, calling for a new constitution to be adopted prior to the election. Talks between the MDC and ZANU-PF collapsed following the announcement of the election date; the MDC had wanted the dialogue to affect the election, while ZANU-PF wanted to hold the election on schedule in March and for any changes agreed in the talks to only take effect afterwards.

Candidacies (February 2008)

Talks to unite the two MDC factions behind the candidacy of Tsvangirai, the leader of the main faction, broke down on 3 February 2008. Mutambara apologized to the people for this failure, while Tsvangirai said that unity could not be imposed by force. Analysts viewed the opposition's failure to unite as making Mugabe's re-election a near-certainty, although Tsvangirai, while expressing regret, said that he believed the opposition still had "a fighting chance" of victory.

Simba Makoni, a former Finance Minister who was a leading member of ZANU-PF, formally announced on 5 February 2008 that he would be a candidate. He is running as an independent. Joseph Chinotimba from the Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association threatened Makoni, and ZANU-PF declared Makoni to be expelled from the party; it said that anyone supporting him would be expelled as well. On 11 February, Tsvangirai confirmed that he would be the candidate of his faction of the MDC in the election, ending speculation that he might rally behind Makoni's candidacy. Although Tsvangirai said that Makoni was a patriot, he was otherwise sharply critical, saying that Makoni had "been part of the establishment for the last 30 years" and therefore shared responsibility with Mugabe for Zimbabwe's situation. He furthermore expressed his view that Makoni intended to merely "reform an institutionalised dictatorship" and was "old wine in a new bottle".

On 15 February 2008, Mugabe, Tsvangirai, and Makoni filed their nomination papers and were confirmed as candidates by Ignatius Mushangwe, the electoral commission's presiding officer. Mugabe's papers were submitted by Emmerson Mnangagwa, while Tsvangirai's were submitted by Nelson Chamisa; Makoni submitted his papers in person. A fourth candidate, Langton Towungana, was also confirmed, running as an independent. William Gwata of the Christian Democratic Party attempted to run, but his papers were rejected because they were judged as not meeting the criteria, while Daniel Shumba, formerly of ZANU-PF, appeared too late to submit his papers. Mutambara announced on the same day that he would not run for President and would instead back Makoni, while contesting the parliamentary election in Zengeza West. Makoni nevertheless stressed that he was running alone and was "not in an alliance with anyone".

Mugabe spoke about Makoni's candidacy for the first time on February 21, calling it "absolutely disgraceful", comparing Makoni to a prostitute, and saying that Makoni had a self-important attitude. Mugabe also said on the same occasion that Western countries would not be permitted to send observers for the election. Also on February 21, the MDC factions said that their dialogue with ZANU-PF, which collapsed after the announcement of the election date in January, had failed. The factions said that the outcome of the election would not be legitimate.

Campaigning (February 2008–March 2008)

Tsvangirai launched his campaign and presented the MDC's election manifesto on February 23 in Mutare. Promising to deliver economic recovery, he said that the MDC had "studied this economy comprehensively and we know what is wrong with it", and that he could put "this economy back on its feet with 100 days of forming a democratic government". Mugabe and ZANU-PF, according to Tsvangirai, "belong[ed] to the past", had "run out of ideas", and could not rescue the economy. Tsvangirai also said that he would place a priority on the creation of a new constitution. He argued that the people wanted total change and not merely partial reform, comparing the former to new clothes and the latter to patching up tattered clothes; this was viewed as a critical reference to Makoni's candidacy.

Speaking at a rally in Beitbridge on February 23, Mugabe likened Makoni to "a frog trying to inflate itself up to the size of an ox" that was sure to burst, while calling Tsvangirai a Western puppet; he predicted an easy victory for ZANU-PF and vowed that "regime change" would never occur in Zimbabwe. Mugabe launched his re-election campaign on February 29 in Harare and presented ZANU-PF's election manifesto. He promised increased agricultural production and the reform and improvement of the mining sector, and he urged the party to acknowledge past failures, such as in the area of infrastructure development. He said that ZANU-PF was united under his leadership: "the struggles within the party that have taken place, and in some cases little wars, have been settled. At the end of the day, we have this congregation with me at the head."

Speaking at a press conference in Bulawayo on March 1, prior to the launch of Makoni's campaign, former Interior Minister Dumiso Dabengwa and former Speaker of Parliament Cyril Ndebele announced their support for Makoni.

While U.S. Ambassador James D. McGee pointed to "ominous signs" that the election would not be free and fair in an open letter in late February, Zambian Foreign Minister Kabinge Pande said that signs were encouraging and that regional leaders believed the election would be free and fair. Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa suggested that the West might not be willing to acknowledge the legitimacy of the election unless Mugabe was defeated.

The Herald a state-owned newspaper reported on February 29 that Retired Major General Paradzayi Zimondi, the head of the prison service, gave his officers an order to vote for Mugabe. He said that Tsvangirai and Makoni would reverse land reform if they were elected, and he vowed to resign from his post and return to his farm to protect it if Mugabe were defeated. Makoni has said that he would continue land reform and would not take back any redistributed land unless it was improperly gained. Subsequently, Defence Forces Commander Constantine Chiwenga said that the army supported Mugabe and would "not support or salute sell-outs and agents of the West before, during and after the presidential elections".

On March 4, The Herald reported that several important foreign corporations, including Citigroup, South African Breweries-Miller, and Actis Africa, were providing financial assistance to Makoni's campaign; the newspaper called this proof that Makoni's "election bid was part of the Western regime change agenda".

Makoni said in an interview with Agence France-Presse in early March that he anticipated getting at least 72% of the vote and that he was only interested in the concerns of Zimbabweans, not those of the West. According to Makoni, Mugabe "has a very special place in our history" and would receive "the due respect that our African culture and African standards demand of us" if Makoni won the election, stressing that he was "not about retribution and victimisation". In an interview with the Financial Times published on March 17, he repeated that he would not seek retribution against Mugabe if he won the election, although he said that Mugabe had "a lot to answer for" and would still be subject to the law. According to Makoni, he wanted to form a national unity government that would include both ZANU-PF and the MDC.

On March 5, The Herald reported that Mugabe told a rally in Bazely Bridge that "the British had identified people within Zanu-PF to work with in causing divisions in the party because it realised the ruling party was a united revolutionary liberation movement that had to be destroyed from within". He distributed over 200 computers to Manicaland schools and said that food and farm equipment would also be sent. On the same day, Mugabe said at a rally in Mahusekwa that some businesses were raising prices with the intent of causing the people to suffer, hoping that they would blame the government for their suffering and vote for the opposition as a result.

The European Union expressed concern on March 10 that "the humanitarian, political and economic situation in Zimbabwe and conditions on the ground" might "endanger the holding of free and fair parliamentary and presidential elections". It said that European observers had not been invited. While not inviting any observers from the EU or the United States, Zimbabwe has invited 47 observer teams, including observers from the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the African Union, China, Russia, and Iran. On March 11, the arrival of the first 50 observers from SADC was reported, with more expected. SADC Secretary-General Tomaz Salomao said in a press conference in Harare on March 12 that SADC was confident "that the tradition of peace encapsulated in the unquestionable political maturity and tolerance shall, once again guide Zimbabweans as they go to the polls".

In light of Zimbabwe's dramatic inflation rate, Mugabe massively raised the salaries of members of the security forces in February, and on March 10 he approved raises for teachers and civil servants. At around the same time, he signed the Indigenisation and Economic Empowerment Bill, which requires all businesses to be majority owned (at least 51%) by black Zimbabweans. Mugabe subsequently accused business of raising prices to nullify the benefit of the pay raises, demanding that the price increases be reversed and warning that "profiteering" white-owned businesses would be taken over by the government.

Human Rights Watch has stated that the Electoral Commission is inadequately prepared for the polls and that the opposition is not being treated equally to the governing ZANU-PF by the authorities. The government rejected these accusations; Deputy Information Minister Bright Matonga said that both ZANU-PF and the MDC were represented on the Electoral Commission and that Human Rights Watch's report reflected an agenda. In a report issued on March 19, Human Rights Forum claimed strong media bias in favor of Mugabe and the use of intimidation and threats against opposition supporters; it also alleged that the Electoral Commission is merely a front for the Registrar's Office, which it said is partisan in favor of ZANU-PF.

Mugabe has used the campaign slogan "vote for the fist", reflecting ZANU-PF militancy; the MDC replied to this slogan by saying that "we cannot feed people with clenched fists", while Makoni has said that "the fist has become a hammer smashing the country".

The Electoral Court ruled against an MDC petition asking for electronic copies of the voter rolls to be made available, saying that this was out of the Court's jurisdiction, on March 13. An application requesting electronic copies was subsequently filed at the Harare High Court on March 17. An electronic list would facilitate searching the rolls for discrepancies. The presence in the voter rolls of Desmond Lardner-Burke, a Rhodesian Minister of Law and Order who died decades before, has been pointed to as an example of flaws in the voter rolls. On March 20, Tsvangirai held a news conference at which he claimed that, in 28 rural constituencies, there were 90,000 names on the voter rolls that could not be accounted for. He said that he based this claim on the work of independent analysts. He also protested a plan by the Electoral Commission to have votes in the presidential election counted separately, at the national level, while votes for the parliamentary and local elections would be counted locally at the polling stations. According to Tsvangirai, who demanded that all votes be counted at the polling stations, this was illegal, and he said that he would "not participate in such a process". Furthermore, he said that while only 20,000 postal ballots were necessary, the Electoral Commission had ordered 600,000 of them. MDC Secretary-General Tendai Biti claimed on March 23 that correspondence had been discovered indicating that the Electoral Commission had requested the printing of nine million ballots, far more than the number of registered voters. According to Biti, this demonstrated an intention to rig the election in favor of Mugabe. Biti also said that 600,000 postal ballots had been ordered for police, soldiers, civil servants working away from home, and diplomats and their families who are posted in other countries. According to Biti, this was wildly disproportionate to the actual number of postal ballots needed; he said that the number of police and soldiers combined was 50,000 at most. Electoral Commission Deputy Chairwoman Joyce Kazembe rejected the allegation that extra ballots were being printed to facilitate fraud, saying that only a small number of extra ballots had been printed in order to account for spoilt ballots.

On March 23, Mugabe held a rally in Bulawayo, the country's second largest city, which is considered a stronghold of the MDC. At the rally, he accused the MDC of seeking the reversal of land reform and urging other countries to intensify sanctions on Zimbabwe, and he said that ZANU-PF had not been split by Makoni's candidacy and Dabengwa's decision to back Makoni. For his part, Tsvangarai rejected the idea that he was hostile to land reform, saying that he made land reform proposals as early as 1995. He did, however, say that he wanted to establish an independent commission to confiscate farms from individuals who owned more than one.

According to the South Africa-based Zimbabwe Solidarity Forum at a media briefing on March 20, Zimbabweans living outside the country would not be able to vote because of a constitutional requirement that a voter have lived within a constituency for at least one year prior to the election.

According to a March 2008 poll by the Mass Public Opinion Institute, Mugabe stands at 20% support, with 28% for Tsvangirai and 9% for Makoni. The remaining, undecided voters were deemed more likely to vote for the opposition than for Mugabe. Tsvangirai claimed Mugabe could not win the election due to the state of the economy, a record of alleged repression, and his age, but would try to steal it. He said that the MDC hoped to pre-empt the Electoral Commission by conducting its own count and releasing results first. On March 23, he claimed that most members of the police and the Central Intelligence Organisation were "behind the people" and "committed to defend the new Zimbabwe", despite the statements from leading figures in the security forces expressing support for Mugabe. He said that members of the security forces had "nothing to fear" if he won the election, as long as they "protect[ed] the national voices of Zimbabweans" and were "committed to the constitutional order in this country".

Marwick Khumalo, the head of the observer group of the AU's Pan-African Parliament, said in an interview published in The Herald on March 24 that his group was concerned only with the electoral process itself, not with the outcome. He said that his group had "not come to prescribe to Zimbabwe how they should conduct their elections" and that "the purpose of our mission here is to ensure that the elections meet the standards of the African Union Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance and the African Union Declaration on Elections, Democracy and Governance in Africa."

Another survey, conducted by Dr Joseph Kurebwa, a lecturer in the department of political science at the University of Zimbabwe, as an independant consultant was reported by The Herald on March 28 as predicting that Mugabe would win a first round majority with 56% of the vote, followed by Tsvangirai with 26–27%, Makoni with 13–14%, and Towungana with 0.2%. The survey was based on the views of 10,322 participants, and all of the country's wards were represented in the survey. Interestingly, Dr Kurebwa is seen by many as a ZANU PF functionary in the mold of Professor Claude Mararike, who has been making the same predictions since 2000 based on what he terms a simulation of voting patterns in Zimbabwe on a sample selected by him. Opponents claim that the Herald, seen by observers as a government mouthpiece, has misrepresented the university's position.

CNN has been denied permission to cover the election, according to an official at the Ministry of Information and Publicity on March 25 2008. Many other foreign media outlets, such as South Africa's e.tv, have also been denied accreditation by the government.

A few days before the election, Makoni's spokesman said that his campaign's advertisements were being excluded from the state media. His campaign manager, Nkosana Moyo, said on March 26 that, in addition to a national unity government, Makoni would establish some sort of truth and reconciliation process if he won the election. He also said that Makoni would take a different approach to land reform and would review any unjustified confiscations of land. Furthermore, Moyo made it clear that if Makoni placed third and was excluded from a potential second round, he would back Tsvangirai. At around the same time, the United States State Department urged the government and the Electoral Commission "to take concrete actions to address … significant shortcomings", and Amnesty International criticized what it alleged was intimidation of the opposition by the police.

The government's "Look East" policy, based on deepening economic relationships with a number of countries in Asia and the Middle East, is touted by Mugabe as the solution to Zimbabwe's economic problems. According to Mugabe, the Zimbabwean economy has not yet recovered because it has been linked too closely to the West, but he said during the campaign that continuing the "Look East" policy would soon lead to economic recovery. He also said that Zimbabwe was learning from economic policies in some Asian countries that focused on the development of small and medium enterprises, arguing that these policies, unlike those favored by the West, empowered people locally.

On March 27, Mugabe dissolved his Cabinet ahead of the election. Regarding the composition of a new Cabinet following the election, he said that "the good performers will return, the poor performers will drop".

The MDC has said that if Mugabe is declared the winner of the election, the result could be violence of the sort seen in Kenya following that country's December 2007 presidential election, although Tsvangirai has told his supporters to not engage in violence. At a rally in Nyanga District, Mugabe responded to the suggestion of violence by saying: "Just dare try it. We don't play around while you try to please your British allies. Just try it and you will see. We want to see you do it." He stressed the importance of having a peaceful atmosphere and said that the losing side must be prepared to acknowledge defeat. On March 28, the security forces were placed on full alert. At a press conference on that day, National Police Commissioner Augustine Chihuri warned the opposition to avoid violence, saying that violence "is a monster that can devour its creator, as it is blind and not selective in nature".

In a joint statement on March 27, Tsvangirai, Makoni, and Mutambara said that independent analysis of the voter lists demonstrated that there were major discrepancies and alleged the existence of "a very well thought out and sophisticated plan to steal the election from us". They said that, in the period from December 2007 to February 2008, the number of voters on the voter registration list had increased by 11% in rural areas but by only 2% in urban areas. Tsvangirai said that officials and election workers should ignore any instructions to falsify the results, and he called on voters to stay at their polling stations after voting so that they could prevent fraud.

Mugabe concluded his campaign on March 28 with a rally near Harare, vowing to win a victory that would deal "a final blow" to the British, who he described as the puppeteers of Tsvangirai and Makoni.

Allegations of vote buying

During the campaign, Mugabe has distributed tractors, computers, buses, and ox-drawn ploughs. He has also distributed a drum of diesel fuel to each traditional chief.

In January 2008 "vast loans [were] being given to defence forces personnel, in an attempt to assure their support in the elections". On March 27, Mugabe unveiled what he called the "medical fraternity skills retention program" to provide incentives to health workers and curb the brain drain. This was less than 48 hours before voting would begin. Distributed on the day were:

• 450 vehicles for senior and middle level practitioners,
• 65 buses,
• 97 ambulances,
• 105 generators for hospitals,
• TVs for the patients donated by the "First family",
• and a promise that 2200 housing units for medical personnel to be built over the following 24 months

However, Sikhumbuzo Ndiweni, a Zimbabwe political analyst in Johannesburg, said:

"Mugabe has run out of options. He wasn't able to rig these elections because, with a man from his own party, Simba Makoni, running against him, he didn't know who he could trust to do the rigging. The head of Mugabe's intelligence is Mr. Simba's man. The deputy commander in charge of police is Simba's man. [Mugabe's people] don't know who is on their side."

Election rules and arrangements

Following a 2005 change in the Electoral Act, this is the first presidential election in which the winner must receive a majority of the vote, with a second round if necessary within 21 days, contrary to the first-past-the-post system previously in place. This can be interpreted as meaning 21 days after the announcement of results, rather than 21 days after the first round is held.

There were about 5.9 million registered voters and about 11,000 polling stations, compared to about 4,000 polling stations in the 2005 parliamentary election. The Zimbabwe Election Support Network said that there were insufficient polling stations in urban areas, where the opposition is considered stronger, while the availability of polling stations was better in rural areas, where ZANU-PF is considered stronger. According to the Electoral Commission, it planned to deploy 107,690 polling officers to oversee voting.

The Public Holidays and Prohibition of Business Notice 2008, published on March 17, declared March 29 to be a public holiday. This was accompanied by the Presidential Powers (Temporary Measures) (Amendment of Electoral Act) (No. 2) Regulations, 2008, which allows police to enter polling stations. This ended a previous law, put in place in 2007 as a result of talks between ZANU-PF and the MDC, that required police to stay 100 meters away from polling stations. The regulations amended Sections 59 and 60 of the Electoral Act, providing for electoral officers and police officers to assist illiterate voters (in the case of Section 59) and physically incapacitated voters (in the case of Section 60). The change was criticized by Tsvangirai and Makoni.

Other changes agreed upon in the talks between ZANU-PF and the MDC included the posting of results outside of polling stations and the provision that, if state television aired any candidate's advertising, then it had to also air advertising from other candidates. Security laws that could be used to prevent MDC rallies were also moderated.

Election day

Voting began at 7 a.m. on March 29 and continued for 12 hours, with polling stations closing at 7 PM, although voters who were still in line at that point were allowed to continue voting. Turnout was reported to be somewhat low, and according to police the voting was for the most part calm and peaceful, although the home of a ZANU-PF parliamentary candidate in Bulawayo was bombed.

Mugabe, voting in Harare, said: "We are not in the habit of cheating. We don't rig elections." According to Mugabe, his conscience would not let him sleep at night if he tried to rig the election. Tsvangirai also voted in Harare, saying that he was certain of victory "in spite of the regime's attempt to subvert the will of the people"; he also claimed that the election could not considered be free and fair even if the MDC won. For his part, Makoni predicted that he would win with a score even higher than the 72% he had previously predicted.

The MDC said that ballot papers ran out at a polling station in Mt Dzuma constituency and in Wards 29 and 30 of Makoni South constituency (both constituencies in Manicaland). It also claimed that the indelible ink used for voting could be removed with detergent. Biti said that there was "absolutely no doubt we have won this election".

Some Zimbabweans living in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Australia, and South Africa held protests and mock voting in response to their exclusion from the election.

Irregularities

Voters' roll

The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) on 28 March admitted that the voters’ roll to be used in the elections was “in shambles” after the opposition had unearthed 8,000 voters who according to the roll, were "normally resident" in a block that has no buildings and a shack that had 75 registered voters. This was in Hatcliffe alone.

The ZEC allegedly contravened the Electoral Act by failing to make available to the MDC a hard copy of the roll.

Vote counting

In its preliminary report on March 30, the SADC observer mission gave the election a positive assessment, although it noted some concerns. Jose Marcos Barrica, the head of the mission, described the election as "a peaceful and credible expression of the will of the people of Zimbabwe". He said that it was free of violence and intimidation. Two members of the mission dissented from the group's report, however.

On March 30, Tendai Biti claimed victory for the MDC at a news conference, saying that the party held the lead based on partial and unofficial results and that the trend was "irreversible". According to the MDC, results from 35% of polling stations (as posted on the doors of the polling stations) showed Tsvangirai with 67% of the vote. Leaders of the security forces and government officials had warned the opposition against announcing unofficial results. Presidential spokesman George Charamba said that if Tsvangirai's next step, after announcing unofficial results and declaring himself the victor, was to declare himself President, then that would be considered "a coup d'etat and we all know how coups are handled". Meanwhile, the Electoral Commission expressed concern at the MDC's announcement of "purported results of the poll when in fact the results are being verified and collated", and it urged the people to be patient. Biti said that the MDC did not wait on the Electoral Commission's results because it did not trust the Commission and did not consider it to be independent.

Official results delay

Anxiety increased as more than 24 hours passed with no announcement of any official results. Judge George Chiweshe, the Chairman of the Electoral Commission, said that it was taking longer to count the ballots than it had in the past because there were four separate elections occurring at once (for President, for the House of Assembly, for the Senate, and for local councils).

Parliamentary results, but not presidential results, began to be announced by the Electoral Commission on March 31. The MDC continued to claim victory for Tsvangirai, and there was speculation that the delay in announcing results was being used to facilitate rigging. British Foreign Secretary David Miliband urged the immediate release of results, and the United States said that it was "concerned" by the delay.

Unofficial projections

According to projections issued by the Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) late on 31 March, Tsvangirai was ahead with 49.4% to Mugabe's 41.8%; Makoni had 8.2%, and Towungana had 0.6%. On April 1, MDC Vice-President Thokozani Khupe said that, based on results from all but 27 constituencies, Tsvangirai had 56% of the vote and Mugabe had 37%. On the same day, the Electoral Commission invited the presidential candidates or their election managers to be present as results are collated, and Tsvangirai said that he would not declare victory until the Electoral Commission announced official results. Tsvangirai also denied rumors that the MDC was engaged in talks with Mugabe. The Electoral Commission said that some ballot boxes were still arriving from the provinces.

On April 2, Biti said that Tsvangirai had won in the first round with 50.3% against 43.8% for Mugabe. The Herald reported on the same day that a second round was likely, and Biti, saying that "state media has already begun to prepare the people for a run-off in 21 days", affirmed that the MDC would participate in a second round if it was necessary. The government criticized the MDC for declaring victory prior to the announcement of official results, with Deputy Information Minister Bright Matonga calling it "wishful thinking" and warning the MDC to "be very careful".

Matonga said on April 3 that ZANU-PF was "ready for a run-off". He said that it had "let the president down" and had "only applied 25% of [its] energy into this campaign", but that it would "unleash the other 75%" in the second round. Mugabe also made his first appearance since the election, meeting with African observers.

Fears of a crackdown

On 3 April 2008, rooms at the Meikles Hotel in Harare that were being used by the MDC as offices were ransacked; Biti alleged that the police or the Central Intelligence Organisation was responsible and accused Mugabe of "start[ing] a crackdown." Biti said that he and others had been targeted. In another incident, police arrested several foreign correspondents at a hotel, including Barry Bearak, a correspondent of The New York Times. On April 4, police spokesman Wayne Bvudzijena said that Bearak and a reporter from the United Kingdom had been charged with practicing without accreditation, but that two others would soon be released. According to Bvudzijena, "so many other foreign journalists ... have followed the laid-down procedures and are practising legally", but the two reporters who had been charged "thought they were a law unto themselves". The attorney-general said that the charges against the reporters were baseless and they were dropped; however, the police kept them in custody and charged them with observing an election without accreditation, this time under the electoral law instead of the media laws. The two were released on bail on April 7, although they were ordered to remain in the capital and appear in court on April 10.

On April 4, the ZANU-PF Politburo held a meeting that lasted about five hours, and afterwards ZANU-PF Secretary for Administration Didymus Mutasa announced that the party had decided that, if a run-off was necessary, Mugabe would participate. Meanwhile, about 400 pro-Mugabe war veterans, who were described in a report from the Times Online as Mugabe's "most feared thugs", marched silently through Harare in what was viewed as an attempt to intimidate the opposition. The MDC faction led by Mutambara said that it would back Tsvangirai in a second round, stressing that removing Mugabe from power was its highest priority.

Delays in release of results, High Court hearing

Speculation in early April included the possibility that the 21-day period between the first and second rounds would be extended to 90 days by a presidential decree. A coalition of groups known as the National Constitutional Assembly criticized the failure of the Electoral Commission to release results up to that point, noting that all results had been posted outside of the polling stations and saying that it considered the Electoral Commission's explanations for the delay to be "inadequate". The coalition also said that, "given the anxiety that is gripping the country", it would be "unacceptable" to delay a second round to 90 days after the first round, expressing concern that this could lead to "a serious constitutional and political crisis".

On April 4, the MDC filed an application at the High Court, seeking the release of results. The MDC's case before the High Court was scheduled to be heard at noon on April 5, but police barred MDC lawyers from entering the High Court building; the Electoral Commission requested that it be given more time to prepare a response, and the hearing was delayed until April 6.

There was initial confusion that the official results be released within six days of the election, subsequently denied. On April 4, the MDC filed an application at the High Court, seeking the release of results.

The High Court hearing on the MDC's request that the Court order the immediate release of results was held over nearly four hours on April 6. The Electoral Commission argued that the High Court had no jurisdiction in the matter. High Court Judge Tendai Uchena was expected to issue a ruling on April 7; on that day he ruled that the court did have jurisdiction and said that he would decide whether to treat the case as urgent on April 8.

High Court Judge Uchena ruled on April 8 that the court would treat the MDC's request for the release of results with urgency.

On April 9, Makoni said that, like the MDC, he is in the dark regarding the whereabouts of the presidential election material. He demanded that the Electoral Commission release results immediately.

The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) was reported to have closed down operations at its national command centre. According to Utoile Silaigwana, the deputy chief elections officer, operations did not cease but were merely scaled back, and he said that it was not necessary to keep equipment at the command centre.

Electoral Commission lawyer George Chikumbirike said that the MDC's request to the High Court was "unreasonable" and should be dismissed; he argued that the Electoral Commission needed time to finish collating and verifying results and that it "would be dangerous ... to give an order [to release results] because it might not be complied with ... because of outside exigencies which [the ZEC] will be unable to control". Uchena said on April 9 that he would deliver a ruling on April 14.

On April 11. the ZEC said its hands were tied with regard to the release of the presidential poll results because the matter was still before the High Court.

MDC statements, international response

Tsvangirai, insisting that he had won in the first round, alleged on April 5 that Mugabe was planning to use violence in a second round "to reverse the people's will", and he claimed that the Reserve Bank was printing money to fund the violence. He demanded that Mugabe concede defeat "to allow us to move on with the business of rebuilding and reconstructing the country". Tsvangirai said that he wanted to engage in a dialogue with Mugabe that would lead to "a peaceful, orderly and democratic transition", and he assured Mugabe that his safety would be guaranteed if he stepped down. He also said that he had begun consultations on the creation of a national unity government. The MDC called on the United Nations to intervene in the situation.

On April 7, Tsvangirai was reported to be in South Africa to take part in "private meetings", and he was said to have met with African National Congress leader Jacob Zuma. On the same day, Tsvangirai wrote in the British newspaper The Guardian: "Major powers here, such as South Africa, the U.S. and Britain, must act to remove the white-knuckle grip of Mugabe's suicidal reign and oblige him and his minions to retire." He subsequently met with the President of Botswana, Ian Khama, and spoke in a radio interview about "creating a government that will have space for everyone", although he said that Mugabe himself should have no role because he had served "long enough". With the MDC having effectively won control of the House of Assembly, he said that if Mugabe remained President he would be a "lame-duck" and a "constitutional crisis" would result.

Meanwhile, the MDC accused the government of trying to provoke its opponents into violence so that it could justify imposing a state of emergency. MDC Secretary-General Biti described the response of other African leaders to the situation as a "deafening silence"; he warned of the possibility of bloodshed, invoking the example of the Rwandan Genocide, and he urged the rest of Africa to intervene. The EU's Javier Solana expressed concern that African leaders had been unable to contact Mugabe.

In an interview on April 9, Tsvangirai said that "a de facto military coup" was taking place, alleging that troops were being deployed to intimidate people into voting for Mugabe in a potential run-off and that "military leaders in the establishment are trying to subvert the will of the people". He said that he was using his trips to neighboring countries to argue that they should help to resolve the situation, because "political chaos and dislocation" in Zimbabwe would not be in the interest of the region. On the same day, Makoni said that, regardless of who won the election, a government of national unity was needed.

On 10 April, Archbishop Buti Tlhagale OMI, president of the Southern African Catholic Bishops Conference, said that the Zimbabwean situation had become a matter of regional, continental and international concern:

As President of the Southern African Catholic Bishops' Conference and on behalf of the Catholic Community in Southern Africa, I call on the leaders of the Southern African Development Community and the African Union to act swiftly to diffuse this tension by mandating a mediator of sufficient international repute, such as Kofi Annan, to ensure a solution that is acceptable to all Zimbabweans."

Ruling party statements, farm invasions

The Sunday Mail reported on April 6 that, according to Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa, the MDC had approached ZANU-PF in hopes of forming a national unity government, but ZANU-PF rejected this. Chinamasa said that the MDC made this proposal in hopes of avoiding a run-off, which he predicted ZANU-PF would win; he said that ZANU-PF rejected the proposal because it felt the run-off needed to go ahead for legal and democratic reasons (noting that ZANU-PF's "figures, based on polling station returns, clearly show that there is need for a run-off of the presidential election") and because the ideologies of the parties were completely opposed. Biti denied Chinamasa's claim, calling it "nonsense".

On April 7, The Herald quoted Mugabe as saying "The land is ours, it must not be allowed to slip back into the hands of whites." Amidst reports that white former farm owners were returning to their old land in expectation of an MDC victory, ZANU-PF supporters invaded at least 23 white-owned farms in Masvingo Province and Centenary number of white-owned farms, according to the Commercial Farmers Union. The Union said that in Masvingo the police were "very cooperative" and were removing the militants, but that the militants kept returning, and he alleged that the invasions were "being co-ordinated from higher up the chain of command". By April 8, the invasions were reportedly escalating; the Commercial Farmers Union said that at least 35 farmers had been forced to leave their properties and about 12 others had left in anticipation of violence. On the next day, it said that more than 60 farmers had been expelled from their properties.

Jabulani Sibanda, the National Chairman of the Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association, said on April 10 that no farm invasions were occurring. He said that the war veterans were merely investigating to ensure that white farmers were not trying to reclaim properties they had lost during land reform. According to Sibanda, if people had been expelled from their farms, the war veterans were not responsible for it.

The Herald reported on April 9 ‘Tsvangirai begs for VP post’ - asking Zanu-PF to accommodate him as one of the Vice Presidents in a government of national unity.

Chinamasa replied to the MDC's call for international intervention by saying that nothing had occurred to warrant it, and he alleged that the MDC was seeking to destabilize Zimbabwe by claiming victory for Tsvangirai.

On 13 April, Information Minister Sikhoanyiso Ndlovu said the Zimbabwean army will not intervene against civilians and soldiers will remain in their barracks.

Recount requested, arrest of electoral officials

On April 5, The Herald reported the arrest of an elections officer in Midlands Province in connection with alleged vote manipulation intended to benefit the MDC by altering vote totals. The Sunday Mail reported on April 6 that ZANU-PF had requested that votes in the presidential election be recounted and audited, and that the results be delayed due to "errors and miscalculations" involving the reduction of the number of votes received by Mugabe at polling stations, before the results were sent to the central command center. The party specifically alleged problems in the four constituencies of Mberengwa, where it said the results were "grossly irregular and (in their current form) cannot stand up to scrutiny". The paper also reported that some officials for the Electoral Commission in the Midlands had been arrested.

Late on April 7, police spokesman Bvudzijena announced that the police had "established that there was deflation of figures in respect of ... the Zanu PF presidential candidate". Bvudzijena said that the police were continuing to investigate such allegations in a number of constituencies across the country, and he said that five electoral officials, in Masvingo, Manicaland and Mashonaland Central provinces, had been arrested in connection with the alleged fraud, in which Mugabe was said to have lost 4,993 votes. On April 9, two more Zimbabwe Electoral Commission officials were arrested in Matabeleland North Province. The MDC's Nelson Chamisa said that the claim that the MDC had worked with electoral officials to rig the election was "ridiculously impossible" and alleged that ZANU-PF was seeking to distract people from the fact that results had still not been released.

On April 8, Innocent Gonese, the MDC secretary for legal and parliamentary affairs, said the country's electoral law act is clear that a recount applies only to parliamentary elections, to be contested within a period of 48 hours. He said there was no procedure for recounting of votes in respect of the presidential elections.

By April 9, speculation involved the possibility that, rather than a second round, the presidential election could be held over again entirely as a result of ZANU-PF's allegations of fraud. Didymus Mutasa said at this time that rigging had been so serious that the results should not be announced, because to so would mean releasing "wrong results". Aside from the alleged reduction in the number of Mugabe's votes at the polling stations, Mutasa said that some people, after voting at one polling station, passed their identity cards to others, who would in turn vote at the other four polling stations in a ward (each ward having five polling stations). Mutasa also alleged that the arrested electoral officials had been trained in fraud techniques in South Africa by Canadian agents who were paid by the MDC.

SADC emergency meeting

Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa called an emergency meeting of SADC leaders for 12 April to discuss the post-election impasse. According to Mwanawasa, Zimbabwe's "deepening problems" meant that the issue needed to be "dealt with at presidential level". Jacob Zuma, meanwhile, said that he thought results should have already been announced, and he described the failure to release them as "unprecedented".

Biti said on April 10 that the MDC would not participate in a second round, reiterating the party's claim that Tsvangirai won a majority in the first round. According to the law, if one candidate in a second round withdraws, the other candidate is automatically the winner. Chinamasa was dismissive of the MDC's claim that it would not participate in a second round, saying that if the party was serious, it should formally withdraw. According to Chinamasa, the MDC wanted to avoid humiliation in a second round, which he predicted ZANU-PF would win by a large margin, and was using the threat to boycott as a "face-saving gesture".

Biti also urged SADC leaders due to meet in Zambia on April 12 to call for Mugabe's resignation, and he said that Tsvangirai would attend the SADC meeting. Matonga, the Deputy Information Minister, said initially that Mugabe would also attend the SADC meeting, although Information Minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu said that "there is no crisis in Zimbabwe that warrants a special meeting on Zimbabwe". Soon afterwards, state radio reported that three ministers would represent Zimbabwe at the summit, rather than Mugabe himself. Matonga said the summit was called without consulting Zimbabwe. According to Matonga, Mugabe decided not to attend because he could not answer anything; as a candidate, he was unable to say what the results of the election would be or when they would be announced. Tsvangirai met with South African President Thabo Mbeki on April 10 in Johannesburg.

The MDC issued pamphlets on April 11 calling for a general strike beginning on April 15 to demand the release of results. The strike was to continue until the announcement of results. On the same day, police banned political rallies in Harare. Bvudzijena, announcing the ban, said that most policemen were occupied with guarding ballot boxes and ensuring security in the wake of the election, meaning that they were not able to handle rallies; furthermore, he said that there was no need for rallies because the election had already been held. The MDC had planned to hold a rally on April 13. Nelson Chamisa of the MDC said: "We cannot accept a declaration of a police state. People have just voted for change, for democracy and what do they get? This is unacceptable." Assistant Police Commissioner Faustino Mazango accused the MDC of sending 350 activists to stir up violence and warned that anyone attempting to "provoke a breach of peace, whoever they are and whatever office they hold, will be dealt with severely".

Mbeki visited Harare and met with Mugabe on April 12 immediately before going to Lusaka for the SADC meeting on the same day. After he met with Mugabe, Mbeki said that there was not a crisis, emphasizing that it was the responsibility of the Electoral Commission to release results and urging patience in waiting for the results. At the summit, Zimbabwe was to be represented by Mnangagwa, Chinamasa, Foreign Minister Simbarashe Mumbengegwi, and Foreign Affairs Permanent Secretary Joey Bimha. Mugabe, for his part, said that his decision not to attend the summit was not a snub: "We are very good friends and very good brothers. Sometimes you attend, sometimes you have other things holding you back."

Regarding Mbeki's statement that the situation in Zimbabwe was not a crisis, Tsvangirai said that "such a misrepresentation creates the perception of quiet approval which I think is quite shocking", and he indicated that Mbeki had expressed a different view when the two had met privately. MDC Secretary for International Affairs Elphas Mukonoweshuro was overtly hostile in his reaction to Mbeki's statement, wondering if Mbeki had been drunk at the time.

After the SADC meeting

Despite the absence of Mugabe, the 13-hour SADC meeting in Lusaka lasted well into the night. Tsvangirai attended the meeting, and he and Biti were broadly happy with the outcome. Zambian Foreign Minister Kabinga Pande, reading a joint statement, said that "the summit urged the electoral authorities in Zimbabwe that verification and release of results are expeditiously done in accordance with the due process of law" and that it "also urged all the parties in the electoral process in Zimbabwe to accept the results when they are announced." The summit also urged the government "to ensure that the run-off elections are held in a secure environment". The regional leaders also called on Mbeki to continue his mission as chief mediator between Zanu-PF and the MDC; Biti urged Mbeki to deal more aggressively with Mugabe in the future. The joint statement included no criticism of Mugabe or any mention of him at all.

Strike call

The MDC strike called for April 15 appeared to have little impact in Harare and Bulawayo, with businesses and factories opening as usual and many workers going to their jobs. There was a high security presence early in the day, but it was reduced when it appeared that the strike was not being widely observed. Awareness of the strike appeared to be low, and low participation was also attributed to economic needs. According to police, 33 MDC supporters were arrested in Harare and four other cities for attempting to stop people from going to their jobs and throwing rocks at automobiles; the MDC said that more than 50 had been arrested, including a Member of Parliament. According to Chamisa, the party did not know why they were arrested, saying that it was not a crime to stay away from work.

28 people were charged with public violence or incitement in connection with the strike. On April 22, magistrate Olivia Mariga denied them bail because the climate was "very volatile" and it was necessary to deny bail to anyone facing charges related to the election in order to deter others. Mariga ordered the defendants to be kept in custody and to appear in court again on May 5.

Treason allegations

After The Herald published a letter said to be from British Prime Minister Gordon Brown to Tsvangirai, along with allegations that Tsvangirai was plotting "illegal regime change" with British assistance, Tsvangirai countered on April 17 that the allegations were "outrageous". The letter purported to be from Brown was dated April 9 and was said to be sent in response to a letter from Tsvangirai on April 3; Brown's purported letter said that the United Kingdom would lobby SADC and the United Nations Security Council to impose further sanctions on Zimbabwe. The British Embassy denounced the letter as a forgery and said that "faking documents for crude propaganda purposes" "reflects the regime's desperation".

Independence day celebrations

According to the Media Monitoring Project Zimbabwe (MMPZ) on April 15, state media had played a number of political songs in the previous days, in the run-up to Zimbabwe's Independence Day on April 18. It mentioned two of these songs, "Mr Government" by Man Soul Jah, which was aired on Spot FM radio, and "Tora Gidi" ("Take the Gun") by the Harare Mambos, which was aired on ZTV, as promoting "hate and violence" against the opposition.

Mugabe gave a speech marking Independence Day on April 18 at Gwanzura Stadium in Highfield, a suburb of Harare, before a crowd of about 15,000; this was his first major speech since the election. Mugabe's tone was combative and defiant; he denounced the British, saying that they paid Zimbabweans "to turn against their government", and he characterized the MDC as British "lackeys". In response to criticism from the United Kingdom that his government was undemocratic, he said: "We, not the British, established democracy based on one person one vote, democracy which rejected racial or gender discrimination and observed human rights." He also vowed that "Zimbabwe will never be a colony again. Never shall we retreat." Mugabe thanked South Africa for the role in played in brokering dialogue between ZANU-PF and the MDC.

Recount

On April 13, the Electoral Commission ordered a recount in 23 constituencies, which was to occur on April 19 in the presence of party representatives and electoral observers. According to Electoral Commission chairman George Chiweshe, there were "reasonable grounds for believing that the votes were miscounted and that the miscount would affect the results of this election". Chamisa said on the same day that the MDC would legally challenge the recount, alleging that it was "designed to reverse the will of the people".

According to Chiweshe, Zanu-PF candidates in 23 constituencies lodged complaints within the prescribed 48 hours after the end of voting, and therefore their complaints could be considered under the Electoral Act. However, on April 13, Welshman Ncube, who as an MDC negotiator was involved in rewriting some contentious laws with Zanu-PF in 2007, disputed this, calling the complaints "concoctions after the fact". He accused Chiweshe of being a "blatant liar and a fraudster" and alleged that the Electoral Commission was working with ZANU-PF to change the outcome of the election, saying that the Commission had the ballot boxes for over two weeks and could have tampered with them. MDC Secretary for Legal Affairs David Coltart said: "The delay between the expiry of the 48-hour period and the writing of the letters of complaint by ZEC is inexplicable, unreasonable. The only inference one can draw from the delay is that the commission has connived with Zanu-PF and therefore acted illegally." He requested proof that the complaints had in fact been made within the acceptable timeframe.

The High Court on April 14 dismissed the MDC's petition requesting the immediate release of results, and the party was ordered to pay the court costs. Although he denounced the ruling, Tsvangirai said that the MDC would not appeal it because the party did not want to contribute to any further delay by doing so. Meanwhile, Rindai Chipfunde-Vava, the Director of the Zimbabwe Election Support Network, which projected that Tsvangirai had received 49% of the vote, was arrested when arriving at the airport in Harare. He was held briefly for questioning before being released.

On April 15, the High Court's Judge Antonia Guvava deferred hearing an MDC legal challenge regarding the recount of ballots, saying that she needed time to read Uchena's ruling dismissing the request for the release of results on the previous day. She also said that she needed time to consider whether the MDC could file new evidence that was not included in the original affidavits.

The recount of votes in 23 constituencies began on April 19, with party representatives and foreign electoral observers present. It was initially expected to take three days, but due to delays on the first day at some polling stations, Utoile Silaigwana, the Electoral Commission's deputy chief elections officer, said on April 20 that it might take longer. Silaigwana attributed the delays to lengthy "initial consultations" and to polling agents arriving late. According to Silaigwana, the recount was "not a small exercise and we want to ensure that there are no mistakes this time around"; he said that it was going well and that there had been no complaints from either of the parties. However, MDC spokesman Chamisa denounced the process as "flawed and criminal", saying that it was a "circus" and that the government was "playing games with the people".

On 21 April 2008, a South African member of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) observer team, MP Dianne Kohler-Barnard, said that the recount was "fatally flawed". She reported repeated miscommunication of venue addresses, protocol registers at several counting stations missing, ballot box seals holding the keys for the two padlocks on each box broken. One set of ballot boxes was missing a book of voting papers from the presidential election box, although all the other books were locked inside. Loose ballot box seals with serial numbers identical to those on already-sealed boxes were easily available.

Electoral Commission Chairman George Chiweshe said on April 23 that he expected presidential results to be released during the forthcoming weekend (April 26–27).

Possible second round, intimidation

Tsvangirai, while still asserting victory, said on April 15 that he would be willing to participate in a second round under certain conditions: he wanted SADC to oversee the election, for it to be conducted "transparently, freely and fairly", and for all international observers to be free to monitor it. The MDC alleged that Tapiwa Mubwanda, an election agent for the party, had been stabbed to death by supporters of ZANU-PF. The killing was confirmed by police, although they said that the motive was not yet determined. If Mubwanda was killed for political reasons, this would be the first such death to have occurred during the dispute. A group of doctors said in a statement that 157 people had been treated after suffering beatings and torture in the wake of the election.

On April 17, Tsvangirai, speaking from Johannesburg, said that Mbeki should be "relieved of his duties" as mediator, and that he had asked Mwanawasa to "lead a new initiative, an initiative that will expand beyond that of Mr Mbeki". Meanwhile, in an interview with the BBC on the same day, Tsvangirai claimed that presidential envoys had approached the MDC on March 30, immediately following the election, and proposed the formation of a government of national unity. According to Tsvangirai, the MDC had been willing to consider this and had also been willing to guarantee that Mugabe and other leading members of ZANU-PF would not be prosecuted; however, he said that the resistance of ZANU-PF hard-liners caused the talks to collapse after a few days. Furthermore, Tsvangirai said in the interview that, if he became President, Mugabe could be placed on trial, either by the regular courts or by a potential "justice and truth commission". He said that, although he was staying outside the country for the time being, he was not in exile and planned to return to Zimbabwe.

On April 18, High Court Judge Guvava dismissed the MDC's application to stop the recount that was requested by ZANU-PF, ruling that the application was without merit and requiring the MDC to pay court costs. On the same day, in South Africa, the ANC backed SADC's decision to keep Mbeki in his role as mediator, despite Tsvangirai's call for him to be replaced.

On April 25, Justice minister Patrick Chinamasa hinted that possible dates for the run-off are May 17 or 24.

An Yue Jiang

A large shipment of arms sent from China to Zimbabwe has provoked controversy, as some fear that the arms could be used by the government against the opposition. The ship carrying the arms, called An Yue Jiang, was to arrive at Durban, South Africa, from whence the shipment was to be transported to Zimbabwe. The ship's cargo—one million rounds of 7,62x54mm ammunition used in machineguns and two million rounds of 7,62x39mm ammunition, used in AK-47s, along with 1,500 RPG7 rockets, 3,224 mortar bombs and 31 mortar tubes—was loaded in Tianjin, and the ship set sail on March 15.

On April 14, the scrutiny committee of South Africa's National Conventional Arms Control Committee (NCACC) approved the shipment's conveyance permit, although it said shipment still had to be inspected and approved by the NCACC. According to South African government spokesperson Themba Maseko, the government was not going to prevent the shipment from being transported to Zimbabwe.

Critics suggested that the South African government would have been acting irresponsibly or even aiding the Zimbabwean government by letting the shipment through. The issue compounded the dissatisfaction felt by many critics of the Zimbabwean government regarding South Africa's nonconfrontational approach to dealing with Mugabe, exemplified by Mbeki's claim that the post-election situation was not a crisis. However, on April 17, the South African Transport and Allied Workers Union (SATAWU) said that members of the union would not unload the ship or handle its cargo.

The Durban High Court issued an order on April 18 effectively barring the shipment; another order allowed a German development bank to seize the cargo in compensation for an unpaid debt owed by the Zimbabwean government. The An Yue Jiang abandoned its attempt to make port in South Africa on the same day, and it reportedly headed instead for Luanda, Angola. The Mozambican government said on April 19 that the An Yue Jiang would not be allowed into its waters, and on April 21, the Director of the Institute of Angolan Ports, Filomeno Mendonca, said that the ship was "not authorised to enter Angolan ports".

On April 21, Zambian President Mwanawasa appealed to SADC governments to not allow entry to the ship, expressing concern that the arms could increase tension in Zimbabwe. Meanwhile, Justice Minister Chinamasa dismissed the controversy as "hullabaloo about a lone ship", asserting that Zimbabwe had the sovereign right to legitimately purchase arms to defend itself. Jiang Yu, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said on April 22 that the ship might be forced to turn back due to its failure to find a place to unload the shipment. She asserted that the shipment involved only "perfectly normal trade in military goods between China and Zimbabwe", with no connection to the events surrounding the election, and that the contract for it had been signed in 2007. In a statement on the same day, the MDC said that the arms were "clearly meant to butcher innocent civilians whose only crime is rejecting dictatorship and voting change".

According to the Lloyds Marine Intelligence Unit, the ship was moving northwest up the coast on April 22, but subsequently the ship's location could not be precisely determined, either because it had switched off its Automatic Identification System or because it was more than 40-50 nautical miles from the coast (outside of the range of the Automatic Identification System). The United States has requested that countries in the region not accept the ship, and it asked China "to refrain from making additional shipments and, if possible, to bring this one back". On April 22, it was reported that the China Ocean Shipping Company had decided to recall the ship due to its inability to deliver its cargo, and on April 23, the ship was reported to have turned around and was near the Cape of Good Hope.

Allegations of violence, further international response

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said on April 17 that, if a second round was held, international observers should be present. On April 18, the foreign ministers of the G8 released a joint statement calling for the results "to be released expeditiously and in accordance with the due process of law" and for "a speedy, credible and genuinely democratic resolution to this situation". Biti met with former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan on April 18, and on April 19 Annan suggested that African leaders should be doing more to help resolve the situation.

In a report on April 19, Human Rights Watch alleged that "Zanu-PF members are setting up torture camps to systematically target, beat, and torture people suspected of having voted for the MDC", both to punish them and to pressure them into voting for Mugabe in a potential second round. The group asserted that there must be high-level complicity in this and criticized SADC and Mbeki for inaction. According to Human Rights Watch, it interviewed over 30 people who had suffered injuries in the camps.

Biti, speaking at a press conference in Johannesburg on April 20, described Zimbabwe as a "war zone" and urged the mobilization of UN organizations in the country, saying that the situation was no longer merely a political crisis, but a humanitarian crisis as well. According to Biti, 500 MDC supporters had been attacked, 400 had been arrested, and ten had been killed; he also said that 3,000 families had been displaced. Because key members of the administration of the MDC had been arrested, the party was unable to function, according to Biti. Like Tsvangirai, Biti was staying outside of Zimbabwe, expressing fear of arrest. On April 21, Deputy Information Minister Matonga dismissed the allegations of violence against the opposition as "lies that are being peddled by the MDC". He said that the purported ZANU-PF vigilante groups were "imaginary".

On April 21 2008, Enos Nkala, one of the founders of the Zimbabwe African National Union and a former Defence Minister, appealed to Mugabe to retire because he had been rejected by the people. “I have information from very reliable sources that on April 1, everyone had the results including those of the presidential elections,” he said. “The President wanted to go but there are people surrounding him who have committed heinous crimes against the people of Zimbabwe and they are afraid of a change of guard.” “Zanu PF was formed in my house in Harare and what is happening now is not one of the reasons why it was formed.“ “It has been hijacked by criminals and people who can not be employed if they leave government. They are also holding Zimbabweans to ransom.” Meanwhile, Dabengwa, who had backed Makoni, said that Makoni's campaign had accomplished its mission by preventing either Mugabe or Tsvangirai from winning a first round majority; he opposed holding a run-off and favored the formation of a transitional government of national unity followed by a new election.

Also on April 21, UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband, speaking in the British Parliament, described the situation as a "constitutional crisis" and said that Mugabe was trying "to steal the election"; he also said that Mugabe and ZANU-PF had "unleashed a campaign of violence" against opposition supporters. He furthermore described the pace of vote counting as "ludicrously slow" and said that the recount could not be trusted. Meanwhile, Zuma, who described the delay in results as unacceptable, called for African leaders to "move in to unlock this logjam" by sending a mission to talk to the parties and the Electoral Commission; he said that, while Mbeki was the mediator, the "gravity of the situation" made it desirable to send other leaders to assist in resolving the situation.

On April 21, the East Africa Law Society called an emergency Pan-African Citizens consultative meeting to be held in Dar es Salaam. It was to urge the African Union to take action on the election crisis in Zimbabwe. It brings together representatives of civil society, the legal fraternity, trade unions, academia and others.

Tsvangirai met with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon at a meeting of the UN Conference on Trade and Development in Accra, Ghana, on April 21, and he urged intervention by the United Nations and African Union.

In a joint statement on April 22, the Evangelical Fellowship of Zimbabwe, the Zimbabwe Catholic Bishops' Conference, and the Zimbabwe Council of Churches called on SADC, the AU, and the UN to act to prevent the situation from deteriorating further, warning of the possibility of "genocide" if they did not. The statement alleged that "organised violence" was being employed against those suspected of supporting the MDC and that MDC supporters were being forced to repeat ZANU-PF slogans; it appealed for an end to voter intimidation.

At a press conference in Accra on April 22, Tsvangirai asked African leaders to acknowledge his claimed victory and said that Mugabe needed to make a "graceful" and "honourable" exit. The Herald published an opinion piece by Obediah Mukura Mazombwe on April 23 that called for negotiations mediated by SADC that would lead to the establishment of a transitional government of national unity, including both ZANU-PF and the MDC. Mazombwe argued that the political and economic situation made holding a second round unrealistic, and that the best solution would be the formation of a national unity government that would organize an entirely new election, with Mugabe remaining President during the transition. Chinamasa said, however, that Mazombe's article did not represent the position of ZANU-PF or the government, and he reiterated that ZANU-PF was opposed to a national unity government.

Also on April 23, Zuma said that there were other countries urging South Africa to use force in Zimbabwe, but that South Africa believed in resolving the situation through "quiet diplomacy" and negotiations. He also said that a national unity government was something worth considering and that it was not premature to discuss it as an option. In London, Zuma and Brown issued a joint statement in which they described the situation in Zimbabwe as a crisis and called "for an end to any violence and intimidation and stress[ed] the importance of respect for the sovereign people of Zimbabwe and the choice they have made at the ballot box." Brown, along with Amnesty International, additionally said that an arms embargo should be imposed on Zimbabwe, but Zuma said that he did not think that was necessary. Meanwhile, Joaquim Chissano, the former President of Mozambique, said that he and the Africa Forum, of which he is chairman, would be willing to get involved to help resolve the situation if regional leaders requested it.

Various attacks on farmers have been reported; in one instance, 10 farm workers were reportedly ambushed and beaten by ZANU-PF supporters, and in another instance a farmworker was reportedly stabbed to death. One farmer said that his family was held hostage on April 23 by war veterans seeking to force them off their property.

On 24 April, Jendayi Frazer, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, said at the beginning of a tour of Zimbabwe's neighbouring countries that Morgan Tsvangirai was the "clear victor" of the election. However, she also said that a "negotiated solution" might be necessary. Patrick Chinamasa described Frazer’s utterances as "patently false, inflammatory, irresponsible and uncalled for".

Police raided the MDC headquarters and those of the Zimbabwe Elections Support Network (ZESN) in Harare on April 25. According to the MDC, hundreds of people in its headquarters were arrested, including people who were taking refuge from violence committed by ZANU-PF supporters and people who were seeking medical treatment there. The party also alleged that its supporters were beaten during the raid. Bvudzijena, the police spokesman, said that the police were looking for individuals who had engaged in arson in the countryside, some of whom the police suspected were hiding in the MDC headquarters. According to Bvudzijena, the police were screening the arrested individuals and those who had not committed a crime would be released. ZESN Chairman Noel Kututwa said that the police "had a search warrant which stated that they were looking for subversive material which is likely to be used to overthrow a constitutionally-elected government", and he said that they had seized computer equipment and files.

Preliminary results

  Summary of the 29 March 2008 Zimbabwe presidential election

Candidate		Party	Popular vote
			#	%
	Morgan Tsvangarai	Movement for Democratic Change	0	0
	Robert Mugabe	Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front	0	0
	Simba Makoni	Independent	0	0
	Langton Towungana	Independent	0	0
Total			0	0%
Source: Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (The Herald)

External links

• Video of an Al Jazeera interview with Mugabe on the campaign trail, March 25, 2008
• Sokwanele - Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) results announced by the opposition parties
• Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (currently broken)