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Dorian Shainin
Died January 7, 2000 Manchester, Connecticut, U.S.
Occupation Quality/Reliability Engineer and Consultant
“My particular technique is to say to people, ‘Let’s stop guessing. Instead, let’s find clues–sources of knowledge that you just would not have otherwise’.”[1]
–Dorian Shainin
“Talk to the parts; they are smarter than the engineers.”[2] –Dorian Shainin
Renowned as a quality paradigm pioneer and guru, Dorian Shainin (b. September 26, 1914, d. January 7, 2000) is considered one of the world’s foremost experts in the fields of industrial problem solving, product reliability and quality engineering, perhaps best known for the creation and development of the “Red X” concept.Shainin (pronounced SHAY-nin), founder of the technical-problem-solving company Shainin LLC., is responsible for the development of more than 20 statistical engineering techniques that have become the core of the “Shainin System” for quality and reliability improvement.
Throughout his life, Dorian Shainin worked to improve the quality and reliability of an array of products including airplanes, automobiles, cassette decks, space ships, light bulbs and disposable diapers[3], with clients representing over 200 different industries, ranging from the U.S. Department of Defense, Rolls Royce Ltd. and Exxon to Polaroid, Hewlett-Packard, AT&T and Ford Motor. In total, Shainin advised over 800 companies, 43 of which were among the Fortune 100.
Early Life
Dorian Shainin was born in San Francisco on September 26, 1914. He grew up in San Francisco, Shanghai, and New York. He attended Erasmus Hall High School in Brooklyn, New York.
Early Career
After receiving his degree in aeronautical engineering from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 1936, Shainin became a design engineer at the Hamilton Standard Division of United Aircraft Corporation (now United Technologies Corporation).
In 1939, US industry had begun to focus on the war effort, and Shainin became a licensee coordinator responsible for helping new Hamilton Standard licensees solve problems. By the end of the war, Shainin was in charge of quality and reliability at Hamilton Standard, having gained national recognition for his invention of the Hamilton Standard Lot Plot.
Lot Plot
Lot Plot refers to a statistical method for acceptance sampling developed by Dorian Shainin in the 1940s. This statistical technique uses graphical analysis of variable sample data in order to determine if a lot consisting of potentially faulty parts should be accepted or set aside for 100% inspection.
Walter A. Shewhart’s development of control charts demonstrated the application of statistical techniques to manufacturing and illustrated the effectiveness of graphical presentation and analysis. Shainin incorporated these concepts in his development of Lot Plot.
In 1946,Shainin was able to demonstrate to the Navy Bureau of Aeronautics that Lot Plot was more effective than 100% inspection. Following this, the Navy agreed to make Lot Plot a standard. Soon, Lot Plot was adopted as a standard across many industries.
Taking the advice of his friend and mentor Joseph M. Juran, Shainin turned to the world of consulting. In 1952, Shainin joined Rath & Strong, Inc., a management consulting firm based in Lexington, Massachusetts, holding the position of Senior Vice President.
Red X and Pareto
Shainin’s development of the “Red X” concept originated from his association with Joseph Juran. In the 1940s, Juran coined and popularized the notion of “the vital few and trivial many”, also known as “The Pareto Principle,” recognizing the uneven impact of problems on business performance to be the same phenomenon that Vilfredo Pareto had observed in respect to the distribution of wealth. As suggested by Juran, “I observed (as had many others before me) that quality defects are unequal in frequency, i.e., when a long list of defects was arranged in the order of frequency, a relative few of the defects accounted for the bulk of the defectiveness.” [4]
In the 1950s, Dorian recognized that the Pareto principle could be applied effectively to the solving of variation problems. Shainin concluded that, amongst the thousands of variables that could cause a change in the value of an output, one cause-effect relationship had to be stronger than the others. Shainin called this primary cause the “Big Red X.”[5] The Red X cause can exist as an interaction among independent variables, and the effect of the Red X would be magnified by the square-root-of-the-sum-of-the-squares rule, making the root cause much easier to find.
In the 1940s, Leonard Seder, an MIT classmate and friend, developed “Multi-Vari” charts, a graphical method for analysis of variance. Shainin was an early adopter of this method, discovering that with Multi-Vari charts, he could quickly converge on the root cause of a problem. Multi-Vari charts also played an influential role in Shainin’s development of the Red X concept.
Influences
Among the statisticians and mathematicians who influenced Shainin’s thinking were Ronald Fisher, John Tukey, and Waloddi Weibull.
Shainin’s convergence techniques have the capability of reducing the number of Red X possibilities to a few possibilities (often four causes, or fewer). Ronald Fisher’s statistically-designed experiments would isolate the Red X, revealing potential interactions while confirming the identity of the Red X with statistical confidence.
John Tukey, a proponent of simple statistical techniques, was another influence of Shainin’s. As a result of Tukey’s work, Shainin developed a simple confirmation test known as a “Six Pack Test”. Six Pack Tests were known for being much simpler than t-tests, being non-parametric and having a basic rule set. Shainin further developed this work into an analysis of variance, or ANOVA, permitting non-parametric analysis of Fisher’s full factorial experiments.
Like Seder’s Multi-Vari charts, Waloddi Weibull’s now famous continuous probability distribution fascinated Shainin. Weibull’s distribution, along with Shainin’s experiences at Hamilton Standard, planted the seed that would eventually become Shainin’s system for product reliability. This system was used in the development of Grumman’s Lunar Module as well as General Motors’ initial production of their anti-lock (ABS) brake system.
NASA/Apollo 13
During the 1960s, Shainin worked for Grumman Aerospace as a reliability consultant for NASA's Apollo Lunar Module. In order to ensure a statistical margin of safety, Shainin developed a completely new approach to reliability assessment, which was applied to the empirical testing of Grumman's Lunar Module prototype components and systems. Shainin’s approach to reliability testing and development was crucial to Grumman’s bid in the development of the Lunar Module. The effectiveness of his approach was demonstrated by zero failures in eleven manned missions, six of which featured moon landings. During the failed Apollo 13 mission, Shainin and Grumman collaborated on the development of a reliability test plan approach called Multiple Environment Overstress Probe Testing, which enabled NASA to verify the margin of safety above and beyond the anticipated stresses associated with the Lunar Module mission. When the command module became uninhabitable, the Lunar Module became the lifeboat that brought the Apollo 13 astronauts to lunar orbit and back to Earth.
During the years that Shainin served as a reliability consultant for Pratt & Whitney Aircraft, he worked on the hydrogen-oxygen fuel cell that powered Apollo environmental life support, in addition to the RL-10 cryogenic liquid rocket engine. The RL-10 soon became America's most reliable space engine, at one point logging 128 ignitions in space without a single failure.
Further Contributions
For 38 years, Shainin served as statistical consultant on the medical staff at the Newington Children’s Hospital in Connecticut. Here, Shainin was able to adapt his techniques to the problems surrounding the etiology of infirmities, specifically amongst disabled children.
From 1950 to 1983, Shainin was on the faculty of the University of Connecticut, where he originated and conducted the continuing education program for people in industry.
In 1987, Shainin further refined his problem prevention approach through his assistance with the introduction of the Detroit Diesel Series 60 engine. Shainin’s “Overstress Probe Testing” exposed design weaknesses early in the development process of the engine, which enabled improvements to be made before the final design.
Bob Galvin was assisted by Shainin in his effort to improve quality at Motorola during the 1980s. As a result of Galvin’s work, Motorola received the first Malcolm Baldridge National Quality Award in 1989.
Having served for many years on the editorial and technical advisory board of Quality, the Hitchcock journal published by the American Broadcasting Company, Shainin was also appointed to the editorial board of Quality Engineering, the journal for the American Society of Quality Control.
Shainin is the author or co-author of eight books, including “Managing Manpower in the Industrial Environment”(Wm. C. Brown Co.), “Tool Engineers Handbook” (McGraw-Hill), “Industrial Engineering Handbook” (McGraw-Hill), “Quality Control Handbook” (McGraw-Hill), “New Decision-Making Tools for Managers” (Harvard University Press), “Manufacturing, Planning, and Estimating Handbook” (McGraw-Hill), and “Statistics In Action”[6].
Awards and Honors
In 1952, Shainin, a Fellow of the American Society for Quality (ASQ), received the ASQ Brumbaugh Award–honoring the best contribution to industry for that year–in response to his paper, “The Lot Plot Plan”. Shainin also received the ASQ Edwards Medal for “best contribution to the management of quality control” for the year 1970. In 1982, he received the ASQ Eugene L. Grant Award for his educational programs. Shainin also received the ASQ's Shewart Medal, becoming the first person to win all four of these prestigious ASQ medals. The Institute of Management Consultants designated Shainin as a Certified Management Consultant, and the American Arbitration Association appointed him to the Panel of Arbitrators. Shainin was additionally elected “Academician” by the International Academy for Quality, and, in 1996, ASQ made Shainin its 15th honorary member. Shainin was finally honored by the ASQ with the creation of the Dorian Shainin Medal in 2004.
Shainin Tool Development Highlights 1946 Lot Plot (Shainin) 1948 Reliability Service Monitoring (Shainin) 1952 Precontrol (Shainin/Purcell/Carter/Satterthwaite) 1956 Component Search (Shainin) Circa 1958 Operation Search (Shainin) Circa 1960 Tolerance Parallelogram (Shainin) 1964 Overstress Testing (Shainin) 1968 B vs C (Shainin) 1971 Paired Comparisons (Shainin) 1972 Isoplot (Shainin/Pollard) 1973 Variable Search (Shainin) 1976 Randomized Sequencing (Shainin) circa 1976 Resistant Limit Transform (Shainin) 1977 Rank Order ANOVA (Shainin) 1988 Shainin System for Quality Improvement (Shainin)
Inline Citations
- ^ A talk with Dorian, 1982, Quality, September
- ^ Bhote, Keki, World Class Quality: Using Design of Experiments to Make It Happen, 2nd edition, 2000, Amacom, New York, pp. 94 ISBN# 0814404278
- ^ http://www.rathstrong.com/articles/Shainin(HBR).pdf
- ^ The Non-Pareto Principle; Mea Culpa, J.M. Juran
- ^ http://www.industryweek.com/CurrentArticles/Asp/articles.asp?ArticleId=1515
- ^ http://www.asq.org/about-asq/who-we-are/bio_shainin.html
Bibliography
1. Bhote, Keki, World Class Quality: Using Design of Experiments to Make It Happen, 2nd edition, 2000, Amacom, New York, pp. 94-99 ISBN# 0814404278
2. Juran, J.M., Editor, Quality Control Handbook, First Edition, McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York, 1951, pp. 37-41
Web
1. ASQ, December 18, 2007, “Dorian Shainin: A professional approach to problem solving”
http://www.asq.org/about-asq/who-we-are/bio_shainin.html
2. Automotive Design & Production, January 1, 2006, “Detective Work”http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Detective+work.-a0148137972
3. Juran, J.M., "The Non-Pareto Principle; Mea Culpa" http://www.projectsmart.co.uk/docs/the-non-pareto-principle.pdf
4. Moran, Tim, Automotive News, August 4, 2003 12:01 am ET “MANUFACTURING: The man who talked to the parts “
5. Rath & Strong Management Consultants, from In This Issue, 1957 Harvard Business Review, “Dorian Shainin”http://www.rathstrong.com/resources.htm http://www.rathstrong.com/articles/Shainin(HBR).pdf
6. Vinas, Tonya, Industry Week, November 1, 2003 “Best Practices -- The Hunt For Red X”http://www.industryweek.com/CurrentArticles/Asp/articles.asp?ArticleId=1515
Periodicals
1. A talk with Dorian, 1982, Quality, September.
2. Langan, Patricia A., 1986, Under the spell of the quality gurus, FORTUNE Magazine, August 18, pp. 22-23.
3. Logothetis, N., 1990, A Perspective on Shainin’s Approach to Experimental Design for Quality Improvement, Quality and Reliability Engineering International, p. 6, 195-202.
4. Priddle, Alisa, 2003, Dean of Lean Chrysler’s LaSorda starts to leave his mark, WARD’S AutoWorld , May 2003, pp.32-34.
5. Schultz, William, 1992, Statistical Engineering, Quality, August, 1992, p. 18.
6. Shainin Stamp of Quality, 2000, ASQ (American Society for Quality), Spring, 2000, p. 9.
External Links
Shainin website
American Society for Quality
Rath & Strong
The Juran Institute