2004 Taiwanese presidential election
The Election for the 11th-term President and Vice-President of the Republic of China (第十一任中華民國總統副總統選舉) on Taiwan are scheduled for March 20, 2004; the official campaigning period is every day from 07:00 to 22:00 (local time), from February 21, 2004 to March 19, 2004. However campaign activities have been going on for over a year.
On the day of the election, each of the electorate (most adult citizens aged 20 and upwards qualify) will select one from the 2 tickets of president/vice-president candidates on the ballot; there is no provision for postal ballot or voting in absence. Large numbers of Taiwan citizens are expected to travel to Taiwan to vote from North America and Mainland China.
The candidates for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, backed by the pan-green coalition, will be incumbents Chen Shui-bian (chair of the party) as presidental candidate and Annette Lu as vice-presidental candidate. The opposition pan-blue coalition will run a combined ticket: Kuomintang chair Lien Chan as the presidential candidate, and People First Party chair James Soong as the vice-presidential candidate.
| Number on ballot | Presidential candidate | VP candidate | Political affiliation | Total votes | Percentage of ballots cast | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (incumbent) | Chen Shui-bian | Annette Lu | Democratic Progressive Party (pan-green coalition) | - | - | |||
| 2 | Lien Chan (Kuomintang) | James Soong (People First Party) | pan-blue coalition | - | - | |||
| Votes cast | - | |||||||
| Voter turnout | - | |||||||
| Valid votes | - | |||||||
| Invalid votes | - | |||||||
(official announcement of candidates: [1])
Issues
Although the political spectrum on Taiwan is defined in terms of Taiwan independence versus Chinese reunification, both campaigns have taken moderate positions on this issue. The reason for this is that people who are influnced greatly by either independence or unification have already decided who to vote for, and the goal of both campaigns has been to capture the moderate middle.
The main issues in the campaign are relations with the People's Republic of China, political reform, and the economy. In addition, although they tend not be noticed by the international press, local issues have been important in the campaign, particularly because these issues influence undecided voters. These issues vary from county to county but include funding for irrigation projects, the location of expressways, and location of local administrative boundaries.
Platforms and stratgies
The DPP has been attempting to portray the Lien-Soong ticket as one which would sell out Taiwan to the PRC, and has been emphasizing constitutional reform, proposing a new constitution and a referendum. This has lead to fears that Chen intends to use a new constitution and a referendum to declare Taiwan independence. Worries about this have caused the United States at several points to ask for, and receive assurances that Chen has not abandoned the Four noes and one without policy.
The Lien-Soong ticket has attempted to portray Chen as someone who lets politics get in the way of improving the Taiwanese economy. Originally emphasising Chen's inability to establish the three links with Mainland China, the Lien-Soong ticket has changed its message to focus more on what they see as Chen's inability to deal with the recession that Taiwan finds itself in, in light of the SARS outbreak in mid-2003. Until October of 2003, the Lien-Soong strategy appeared to be to avoid doing or saying anything controversial to keep its lead. This strategy was widely seen as counterproductive by the end of October.
Reaction from the PRC
Most observers believe that the People's Republic of China (PRC) would be happy to see Chen Shui-bian replaced by an administration less sympathetic to Taiwan independence and more in favor of Chinese reunification. However, some observers believe that the PRC cares less about who the President of the ROC is, than that this person establish economic linkages which Beijing believes would bind Taiwan irrevocably to the Mainland.
In contrast to the elections of 1996 and 2000, the PRC was quiet in this election until early November. Most observers believe that this was because the PRC has learned that any comments, especially in the form of threats, have been counterproductive to its own interest. However, the PRC broke its silence in mid November 2003 and issued several very sharp threats that it would not stand by if Taiwan declared independence. This widely was seen as in response to two factors. In early November 2003, Chen Shui-bian took an unofficial trip to the United States in which he was much more publicly seen than before. This trip increased his popularity on Taiwan to the point where most polls indicated that he was even or slightly ahead of Lien-Soong. The trip in early 2003, also alarmed the PRC in that it appeared to convince them that the United States would do less to constrain Chen Shui-bian than they had earlier believed.
On February 2004, former Justice Minister Liao Cheng-hao, attempted four main branches of campaign offices on the mainland to target Taiwanese businessmen to support the candidacy of Lien Chan. News of this caused a minor firestorm on Taiwan, especially after it was Liao was photographed with several fugitives from justice from Taiwan. Lien Chan quickly distanced himself from this action, and Liao wrote an essay stating that his activities were not authorized. Shortly thereafter, the PRC Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman said, "We did not, do not and will not interfere with elections in Taiwan...We do not care who will be elected. What we care about is the winner's attitude towards cross-Taiwan Strait relations and national reunification," and PRC issued instructions to local officials not to allow Taiwanese businessmen to openly campaign on the Mainland.
Referendum
Chen's rise in the polls caused the opposition to change its campaign strategy. To counter Chen's platform for a new constitution by 2008, the opposition campaigned for a major consitutional change by 2004. In addition, the opposition stopped its stalling of a referendum bill.
The vetting of the referendum bill appeared to alarm Beijing which issued more sharp threats of a strong reaction if a referendum bill passed which would allow a vote on sovereignty issues such as the territory and flag of the ROC. The final bill that was passed on November 27, 2003 did not contain restrictions on the content of referendum, but did include very high hurdles for referendum on constitutional issues. In addition, it contained a provision for a defensive referendum to be called if the sovereignty of the ROC was under threat. In response to the referendum passage, Beijing issued vague statements of unease.
On November 29, President Chen announced that given that the PRC had missiles aimed at Taiwan, he had the power under the defensive referedum clause to order a referendum on sovereignty, although he did not do so. This statement was very strongly criticized both by Beijing and by the pan-blue coalition. But instead, he proposed a referendum to ask the PRC to remove the hundreds of missles it has aimed at Taiwan. During a visit by Wen Jiabao, George W. Bush gave a clear statement that it "opposes" any form of referendum that will unilaterally change that status quo.
It is believed that the United States fear Chen will put the U.S. in a hard position, if his words angered the PRC and causes military confrontation between two sides. The United States has the obligation to defend Taiwan as stated by the Taiwan Relations Act, but the US is unwilling to confront China in East Asia especially while it is being tied down in Iraq. But despite the worries expressed by the United States, Chen insisted that a referendum will be held in March 20.
In a televised address made on January 16, 2004, President Chen reiterated his "Four No's plus One" pledge, justified the "peace referendum," and announced its questions[2]:
- The People of Taiwan demand that the Taiwan Strait issue be resolved through peaceful means. Should Mainland China refuse to withdraw the missiles it has targeted at Taiwan and to openly renounce the use of force against us, would you agree that the Government should acquire more advanced anti-missile weapons to strengthen Taiwan's self-defense capabilities?
- Would you agree that our Government should engage in negotiation with Mainland China on the establishment of a "peace and stability" framework for cross-strait interactions in order to build consensus and for the welfare of the peoples on both sides?
The opposition has claimed that the referendum is illegal, and have asked their supporters to boycott the referendum. Although both questions are phrased so that they are unlikely to be voted down, the thing to watch would be for the number of blank and spoiled ballots cast on the referendum.
Other developments
In the months leading up to December 2003, there was speculation as to whether Chen would choose Vice President Annette Lu as his running mate. Polls had consistently showed that Chen would do better with another candidate such as Taipei county administrator Su Tseng-chang or Kaohsuing mayor Frank Hsieh and many of the DPP's most popular lawmakers had petitioned Chen to seriously consider another candidate. After several weeks of very public infighting between various factions of the DPP, Chen formally nominated Lu as his running-mate on December 11.
By the end of November 2003, the Lien-Soong ticket had appeared to recover some of the losses in polls that had occurred in October.
Both groups, in January 2004, seemed not to be focusing on issues of external policies, but instead on issues of personal finances. The pan-Green coalition raised the issue of Lien Chan's personal wealth and the properties which they asserted that the Kuomintang had illegally accquired while it was the ruling party. In response, the pan-Blue coalition asked why Chen Shui-bian has become much wealthier after assuming the presidency. Curiously most polls indicate that while Chen is widely considered the cleaner candidate and that the public has doubts as to Lien's and Soong's honesty and the source of their wealth, this does not appear to affect voting decisions.
Televised debates between the two major candidates were held on February 14 and February 22. The parties were unable to reach agreement on dates for other presidental debates and for vice-presidental debates, and has of the end of February it appears unlikely that there will be any other debates.
Polls in February 2004 showed pan-blue running slightly ahead, but with a quarter of the electorate still undecided. However, most analysts are of the opinion that the poll numbers vastly overestimate the number of people who are actually undecided, and all but a few percent of the people who express no opinion have already decided who to vote for. Although polls have shown the pan-blue slightly ahead, some analysts believe that this does not eliminate the possibility of a pan-green victory as traditionally pan-green voters have been more reluctant to express their opinion in light of Taiwan's authoritarian past. Others have argued that while, this hidden green effect was very apparent in elections in the early 1990's, with Taiwanese democratization, the hidden green effect has been less pronounced or non-existent in more recent elections.
The main figures from the pan-green coalition, including Chen Shui-bian and former president Lee Teng-hui, have initiated the "228 Hand-in-Hand demostration" in which more than one million people will join hands to stand from the very north of Taiwan to south to form an unbroken human chain. As an act of defiance against the PRC as well as a promotion of Taiwanese national identity, it will occur on February 28 in rememberance of the 228 incident. This demostration was inspired by the human chain comprised of two million that took place in the Baltic states in 1989, in which the Soviet Union later invaded to stop their declarations of independence. In response, the pan-blue also plans major demonstrations and campaign rallies on 228.