Talk:2005 Atlantic hurricane season/October

Week 1

So it looks like we will start October out busy...depending on what happens with the wave in the Caribbean...I say by the end of the month, we're in Greek letters! (My prediction: 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes) CrazyC83 23:54, 30 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

19L.NONAME

AoI:001-Alt

(Discussion originally included in AoI:001, but this is the NEXT wave, first noted on 26 September).

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

Looks like if anything, it'll take it's time to develop. -- NSLE | Talk 06:45, 30 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

90L.INVEST

THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
ALREADY HAS A SURFACE CIRCULATION SO AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
OVER OPEN WATERS.

It's now 90L.INVEST--Keith Edkins 12:10, 30 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

This looks like it could develop as well...although I can't see a Cape Verde storm being more than a fish-spinner in October (but this is 2005, so rules don't mean a thing!!) BTW later today, when the October thread is added, this should be moved other there. My prediction for October: 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes (one landfalling, the other a fish-spinner). CrazyC83 16:22, 30 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Depression 19

The Navy site now lists it as 19L NONAME but the NHC is mute. Anyone know what the hell is going on?

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 20:28, 30 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

The Navy usually publish the number first. Expect NHC Advisory 1 any minute now.--Keith Edkins 20:44, 30 September 2005 (UTC)...Told ya--Keith Edkins 20:54, 30 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Ha! Ha! The Atlantic is alive again! [1]

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:03, 30 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Unfortunately, Stan's record is coming up fast. Unless this thing gets it together QUICKLY, we'll not have the record. -- RattleMan 21:47, 30 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

This will be close...it has to be Tropical Storm Stan at the 11:00 advisory to keep the record going... CrazyC83 23:56, 30 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

That's odd... Now the Cape Verde Season is happening in October... What's next? A major hurricane in December? RoswellAtup 05:58, 01 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Oh boy, a Cape Verde Hurricane? Can we really stand to have a monster hurricane now? User:tdwuhs

It might be possible we might have a small tropical storm in early December, it would be weird, but I think it's possible at this rate. --Revolución (talk) 22:50, 30 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Just as expected, this swirl will much likely to develop earlier than the one on western Caribbean, Hmmm, what's scary now is that the 99L.Invest is much like Hurricane Opal of 1995's birthplace... What if history will repeat itself? RoswellAtup 06:37, 01 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Looks like a fish-spinner for Stan...and 99L does remind me of Opal right now...could Tammy be the next big one? Can we even stand another big one? CrazyC83 23:52, 30 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Let's hope Bob won the pool for strongest storm, tough someone did bet on Tammy being the strongest. But let's hope if it does form nothing major. The residents of the Gulf Coast can't handle any more storms. User:tdwuhs

I think Emily will be upgraded into a category 5 hurricane and Maria will be downgraded into a category 2 storm.... -RoswellAtup 08:22, 01 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

It looks like we lost Stan. NHC doesn't upgrade it in spite of it looking great on imagery. -- RattleMan 02:40, 1 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Poor Stan doesn't have any chance of becoming a hurricane too! -RoswellAtup 09:02, 01 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

You don't seem to realize that hurricanes kill people and damage cities. --Revolución (talk) 17:31, 1 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Unless conditions improve, I don't think this system will become Stan, the environment just isn't friendly enough. Of course, that's what we said about Tropical Depression Nine (better known as Hurricane Irene).

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 19:23, 1 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Kiss this thing goodbye...it ain't gonna be Tammy... CrazyC83 15:29, 2 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

20L.Stan

99L.INVEST

Backup Navy site says 99L. -- RattleMan 14:16, 26 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Is that that Caribbean storm? Yeah, that thing does look better organized than it did yesterday and the NHC says conditions could become more favorable soon.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 16:04, 26 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

And the models [2] [3] are liking this one for Stan. Grumble, grumble. --Holderca1 18:43, 26 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

It doesn't look half-bad on the 'ole Navy satellite. On another note, it seems they dropped 98L.invest. --tomf688^{talk} 18:46, 26 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

And according to das models, it could be entering the Gulf within the next several days. --tomf688^{talk} 18:50, 26 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

It all depends on if it hits the pool of extremely warm water south of the larger Caribbean islands... CrazyC83 20:11, 26 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

It also depends on if it survives the so-so conditions it's in right now. The visible isn't very impressive. I see about four possible centers in that thing [4]. The Dvorak IR image however gives a clear center: right in the middle of the mess [5].

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 22:10, 26 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Looks like the NHC no longer cares about it. [6] -- RattleMan 03:07, 27 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

The 1-2-3 rule is only for active tropical cyclones and imminent tropical cyclones (formation forecast within 36 hours). The NHC still mentions the possibility of an improving upper-level environment on the system. [7]

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:37, 27 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

NHC no longer interested? In their most recent TWO, they called it "vigorous", and thunderstorm activity has increased significantly over the past several hours. --tomf688^{talk} 20:52, 27 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

They've got a Hurricane Hunter flight scheduled tomorrow. Note that every Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has taken off and flown into a disturbance this season has found that it was a tropical cyclone. Also, those flights cost a lot of taxpayer money per flight, so the NHC must be damned curious about it to send a plane down there.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:20, 27 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Now the 1-2-3 rule thing says that cyclone development is possible within 36 hours in that general area. -- RattleMan 22:28, 27 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

8 PM TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N. THIS SYSTEM IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 36 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING IF NECESSARY. RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 76W-84W.

-- RattleMan 00:16, 29 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

They've been saying that for a while and is hasn't amounted to anything. Somebody (the storm or the Center) is crying wolf.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:19, 29 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. Sounds like TD19 to me? CrazyC83 16:29, 29 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Looks like it too: [8], [9]. If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and sounds like a duck; it's a duck. Plus the NHC is getting more nervous by the minute. I can just see them now biting their nails raw waiting for that plane to get there. We could have a problem here friends.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 19:06, 29 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Hey! What do you know, reverse psychology does work. [10].

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 19:36, 29 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

At least we all know that is out there...and it still has time to develop...although likely just another storm like Bret, Gert and Jose... CrazyC83 20:31, 29 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Well would you rather have a major hurricane plow into Mexico?

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 20:40, 29 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

The NHC is just confusing us! Yesterday they're telling us that the upper-levek conditions are more conducive and now they're telling us it less favorable... What the heck!!@$%*#! hmph!They're taking us for fools. I'm betting that the one on the Cape_verde will more likely to develop into Stan. RoswellAtup 05:40, 1 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Me too, but that one I can't see being any threat to land... CrazyC83 16:42, 30 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

And we continue into October with 99L not knowing what it wants to do. -- RattleMan 00:09, 1 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Depression 20

It's now TD20. Which will develop first? CrazyC83 14:57, 1 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

FINALLY. Took it long enough! I think TD19 will develop first, because this one took so damn long to get to TD status... -- RattleMan 15:02, 1 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Me too, I have a feeling this may not even reach tropical storm strength - and if it does, only barely...it doesn't have much time to do so before landfall. Possibly if TD20 stalls in the Bay of Campeche and starts to move northward over the Loop Current, it would strengthen though. I'm surprised TD19 is not yet Tropical Storm Stan, although for a distant fish-spinner, you often have to guess...since there is little in the way of observations available, and it would be a waste of resources to send a Hurricane Hunter out there. CrazyC83 15:06, 1 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

But what about the shipping interests? WON'T SOMEONE PLEASE THINK OF THE SHIPPING INTERESTS?!?!?! Ahm, pardon me. At any rate, TD20 is still going to pass into the Gulf of Mexico after it crosses the Yucatan, so it could make TS or hurricane there if it doesn't make it before landfall, AND if it doesn't completely dissipate over the peninsula. --tomf688^{talk} 15:09, 1 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

What order do we put the page in, if 19 and 20 become Tammy & Stan (respectively)?--Keith Edkins 15:16, 1 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Eh, good question. I suppose we rearrange them alphabetically. --tomf688^{talk} 15:18, 1 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Only if they both develop, in that order. Should 20 become Stan and 19 dissipate, it should remain as it is. CrazyC83 00:32, 2 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I think we should list them by TD number. There's certainly precedent; with the 2005 Pacific typhoon season we listed Damrey (17W) over Saola (18W) even though Saola got its name first. --NSLE | Talk 06:07, 2 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Hmmm, I'm beginning to think that both will never reach Tropical storm strengths...RoswellAtup 17:23, 1 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

most likely, but it's possible the system could survive after passing over Yucatan, which would be bad because it would strengthen in the Gulf and could become a Cat 1 or 2 Hurricane Tammy if the system in the Atlantic develops into Stan first --Revolución (talk) 17:26, 1 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

And what is the protocol if 19 and 20 become Tropical Storms at the same hour?...does earlier depression get the earlier letter or do they try to call which crossed the threshhold first?...does 20 have an unfair advantage on promotion because it's being looked at more often?--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 19:03, 1 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I believe that if they formed at the same hour, they'd go by who got numbered first. That's just my understanding of it.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 19:10, 1 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

According to recon reports, a plane recorded wind speeds above 39 mph...but the 1 AM advisory didn't upgrade it. What... -- RattleMan 06:01, 2 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

40 mph flight-level winds mean about 30-35 mph winds on the surface.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 18:08, 2 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I know that (90% or something), and it was still above 39 mph. But that doesn't matter now, we got him. -- RattleMan 18:19, 2 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Storm Stan

...TROPICAL STORM STAN FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...

AT ABOUT 120 AM CDT... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY HAD INCREASED TO 45 MPH.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STAN... THE 18TH NAMED STORM OF
THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.  STAN IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

Yay! Now all we need is for TD19 to get it together. [11] -- RattleMan 07:11, 2 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I sure wouldn't want to be Mexico right now... getting pounded by two storms simultanrously, one on each side. 80.178.195.91 09:33, 2 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Pretty scary, but what if Stan could make an Opal-repetition? RoswellAtup 11:40, 2 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I wouldn't be surprised if it did...he just needs to survive over the Yucatan and he's got a Katrina-like opportunity to enter rapid deepening... CrazyC83 15:28, 2 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

The steering seems fairly clear-cut to take it into the Mexican coast, though... unless you're seeing something I'm not (in which case, please correct me!) The Great Zo 16:50, 2 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

The NHC seems to be becoming less confident that Stan will continue straight into Mexico, perhaps instead stopping entirely or changing direction. They also said that there's a 49% chance of rapid deepening. Not a good sign. 69.86.16.61 03:58, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Despite the very warm waters of the Gulf, I can't see it becoming more than Cat 1 or Cat 2. --Revolución (talk) 17:16, 2 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

A special advisory is being released... the storm is upgraded to 70 MPH and pressure has fallen RAPIDLY in the last few hours. We will see a Hurricane by the time I wake up tomorrow for sure (and a new header in this section, I'm sure). The Great Zo 06:12, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

They also saying it's moving faster - This could mean a friendlier environment for 92L to develop into. -- RattleMan 06:20, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Hurricane Stan

Mexico's heading for a good old beating now... -- NSLE | Talk 11:28, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Stan made landfall much quicker than expected...he turned to the southwest and took a shortcut to land... CrazyC83 15:39, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

That actually could be a good thing. It hit land before it had time to get any stronger.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 16:32, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

CNN is reporting that 38 people have been killed by mudslides in El Salvador as a result of Stan [12]. This raises the possibility that, if enough mudslides occur, Stan may be considered for retirement despite being a weak storm. 69.86.16.61 18:47, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

It depends on how high the numbers go...but you're right, it could almost warrant its own article on all things except one: the lack of information. This could be a rare case where an article is created posthumously...last I checked, death toll was 51. Cesar was retired despite hitting the region as only a Category 1 storm and had a similar death toll... CrazyC83 20:47, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Stan would make 5 candidates for retirement (Dennis, Emily, Katrina and Rita being the others). Probability: Dennis-85%, Emily-67%, Katrina-99%, Rita-95%, Stan-58%. Of course, I would have put Hurricane Gordon at 92% and Hurricane Klaus at 42% so anything can happen. The current record's been tied too many (3) times anyway.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:55, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Stan seems not all that different from Hurricane Diana and Hurricane Cesar-Douglas, which were retired. Of course, the odds of a storm name being retired are generally based on how damaging storms of that season have been, not how damaging all storms have been, and everything in this season pales in comparison to Katrina and Rita. Also, I would say that Ophelia has about the same odds as Stan of being retired at the moment (maybe 60%), mostly because name retirements are highly biased towards the US and damage to the US (and Canada). 69.86.16.61 22:02, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

From the Eastern Pacific tropical weather outlook:

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM STAN CENTERED OVER THE STATE OF OAXACA. THE COMBINATIONS OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF MEXICO AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

This could be bad. What if Stan stalls do to the interaction? I don't want to think of how bad it could be if that happens.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:39, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

That's possible too, and 99E.INVEST (Pacific TD16-E?) could also play a role in this... CrazyC83 03:15, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Article shift?

51 are reported to be dead right now, and likely to rise, due to Stan's mudslides and floods. Should we move this to a separate article (although we need to find more information to get it detailed)? CrazyC83 20:51, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Let's hold off until we have sufficient information to put together an article. Once we know enough about it, by all mean go ahead, but let's let the smoke clear first.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:47, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Hurricane Stan --Revolución (talk) 22:09, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Dude! That's copied and pasted from the main article. That's BAD!

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 22:18, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

91L.INVEST

A new invest has formed out in the Atlantic at around 15N-37W. The Great Zo 16:17, 3 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Yeah, I noticed that too, but this one doesn't stand a chance. Conditions for development out there are bad and getting worse. This system is pitiful, almost no deep convection to it whatsoever. Pretty soon there will probably be nothing left.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 00:02, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

They might as well let this thing go, it ain't gonna develop into nothing. Focus on Stan and 92L (TD21 tomorrow?). CrazyC83 02:42, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

And it's gone - well that was exciting, wasn't it? The Great Zo 13:05, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

21L.Tammy

AoI:10W1-01 - Bahamas

11:30 AM TWO mentions:

"A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT
700 MILES EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR."

-- RattleMan 15:41, 1 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

They say winds are unfavorable right now... ho-hum, thats what they also said about Hurricane Rita... Scary... ...RoswellAtup 17:30, 1 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

can we just stick to reporting INVESTS and not clutter up the talk page with these "areas of interests"?

A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...IS CENTERED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.

-- RattleMan 18:28, 2 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

perhaps it will become an invest in a few hours, and has anyone also noticed that blob east of the lesser antilles? could this be tammy? -- RoswellAtup 04:01, 3 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

OMG DID YOU SEE THAT BLOB OVER TEXAS? THAT COULD BE A CAT 5 LOLOLOLOLOLOLOZORS!!!! OK, seriously though, the NHC has tentatively scheduled recon flights for the area near the Bahamas, and since the Navy site is down... it's possible it's an Invest by now. The Great Zo 14:43, 3 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

From what I've heard, if this thing moved into the Gulf of Mexico it wouldn't develop very much, if at all. Upper-level winds and high shear are unfavorable for development across the northern Gulf. I don't think we have to worry about this one too much. bob rulz 03:20, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

92L.INVEST

The system is now an Invest... and the TWO is a bit more aggressive on it. It's hard not to be a bit alarmist at this one, while looking at where it's forming and the potential track... The Great Zo 16:17, 3 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Our third Category 5 of the season? I'm shuddering already. "Bahama Busters" are going to be infamous for years if this becomes Tammy and even approaches the strengths of Katrina and Rita. 69.86.16.61 21:57, 3 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Didn't someone predict that to happen down below? It needs to get to 180 mph, or 175 mph/896 mb, to beat Rita... CrazyC83 22:31, 3 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Wow another Bahama Buster? And we think Cape Verde Hurricanes are bad. Look at Katrina and Rita powerful storms even when landfalling and what destruction! Can we handle another one? By the time this season is over anyone with sense would move away from the Gulf Coast. User:tdwuhs

Ah, but the siren song of the shore is too great a pull for most. I know it is for me.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:33, 3 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

It's also harder when you get later into October, especially considering there is a ridge sitting over the Gulf (sending Stan into Mexico), which would send this thing up the Eastern Seaboard if it develops. CrazyC83 02:35, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Hmmm, the forecast for October will have 3 named storms... Does it include Stan? RoswellAtup 03:04, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Crazy C, ouch, good point. That would suck.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:19, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Here is the track http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_92.gif --199.44.251.2 12:41, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Dude! Model consensus straight through Miami! That's always messy.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:59, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

At least none of them predict a prolonged stay over the Gulf of Mexico. 69.86.16.61 22:03, 4 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

10:30 PM TWO is really liking this one:

RADAR DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS NOT FORMED YET WITHIN THE LARGE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OF THE LOWEST PRESSURE
WHICH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR A RAPID DEVELOPMENT BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM ON
WEDNESDAY. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TOMORROW. PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE LOCAL HAZARDS...INCLUDING FLOOD WATCHES OR
WARNINGS.

The words of importance here:

THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE [...] BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE SYSTEM
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM ON
WEDNESDAY.

-- RattleMan 03:03, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

This may immediately become Tropical Storm Tammy, never becoming TD21 at all...I see some weird loops coming out of this storm before a move for the eastern seaboard as a major hurricane... CrazyC83 03:18, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Let's hope that this storm, if it becomes Tammy, that it won't be another Bahama Buster and follow her sisters Katrina and Rita. User:tdwuhs

I expect that it will be Vince that will become the major hurricane this October, if 92L is going to be Tammy, it has no chance of becoming a major hurricane if it tracks the eastern seaboard because of the unfavorable upper-level winds... User:RoswellAtup

What is strangest about this situation is that just about every model I've looked at tonight forecasts a tropical system of some sort in the Gulf within a couple of days. From my own observations... 92L isn't moving anywhere fast... Stan isn't looking to turn around... and I see nothing random that's going to pop up... but all three solutions are forecast by different models. This will be a very confusing, and yet very interesting next few days. The Great Zo 05:10, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Storm Tammy

NHC says we have TS Tammy as of 7:30 EDT. --Patteroast 11:33, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

That is interesting. I suppose they should been calling this a TD for a while, then? --69.86.16.61 13:31, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

If another depression forms before Tammy is downgraded, do they reserve the designation 21 for Tammy or do they use it? --24.176.68.73 14:06, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

It would be TD22. This would have been 21 except for the fact that it was already at 40 mph when it got the circulation - which likely means it was already at tropical storm strength while still disorganized. CrazyC83 14:58, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Yes. Although it is never called TD21, the number will be reserved for it as the number AL212005 is used in NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY and the number 21L is used in naval warning as well as in NRL.

In the past, when subtropical cyclones are not named, a number would also be reserved. For example, in 2001, Karen became a subtropical storm after TD12, it had the number AL1301 and 13L even when it was known as subtropical storm one in the advisory.

Well, somebody jumped and created Tropical Storm Tammy already, and even began changing links to it. Should this be VFD'd or something? Somehow, I doubt this one will be a notable one other than the fact that it is a "T" storm. Donovan Ravenhull 14:50, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Speedy merge. Unless Tammy moves east into the Gulf Stream, it has almost no chance of being notable. CrazyC83 14:58, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Still, I'm taking Tammy on a weird path. I think it will actually spin to the east with the help of the ridge over the northern Gulf (which would slide eastward), send Tammy slowly into the Gulf Stream, and steadily strengthen to become a major hurricane en route for the North Carolina coast as a Category 3 storm... CrazyC83 16:14, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Could Tammy be another Allison in the works? User:tdwuhs

I hope to God not. The US coast, especially the Gulf coast (which Tammy won't touch thank God) can't take much more. Has anyone noticed that Tammy, barring an impossible stunt, will be the first female-named system to not become a hurricane since Gert way back in late July (back when we were all much younger)? That's astounding. We had six hurricanes in a row with barely name-worthy tropical storm barring a 7-straight run (Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, and Stan). That hasn't been done in decades. The amazing things that this season has brought out are almost endless.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 00:28, 6 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Could it be possible that Tammy could make a loop into the Gulf of Mexico and re-strengthen and hit the West Coast of Florida? Scary thought. --Revolución (talk) 00:59, 6 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Enough nightmare scenarios here, geez!

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 01:43, 6 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

93L.INVEST

The Navy site lists a new invest off the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula... looks like it thinks it's gonna be Stan Jr. --Patteroast 15:13, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

We can't help but be worried about it - even if it doesn't develop, it could compound the problems and lead to potentially catastrophic flooding... CrazyC83 15:16, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND EAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED
AT THIS TIME...BUT SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA.  UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.

North-northeast is good news for the Yucutan and Central America, but sends it into the eastern Gulf. Didn't someone mention that models showed something coming out of nowhere and headed into the Gulf? --Patteroast 15:55, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Yup, I had mentioned that earlier, and that's a very good observation on your part Patteroast. Clearly, with Tammy, the remnant of Stan, and this new blob all in the same area, the next few days will be very, very unsettled - with no "easy" forecast in sight. Now, here's something I just noticed on visible satellite images. Load one up if you can. There is a very, very clear cyclonic circulation crossing the Yucatan peninsula from west-to-east... headed back towards the rest of the "blob" and the Caribbean sea. The Great Zo 16:24, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Bottom line: the season clearly isn't over yet. As one of the guys on the Weather Channel said, "We are flat-out sick of the tropics".

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 00:19, 6 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

They better get a lot of rest this winter, because I can't see 2006 being much quieter! CrazyC83 03:57, 6 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Well, now they are saying that its not condusive to tropical development. Somehow, I don't think I'm going to relax just yet. Donovan Ravenhull 11:08, 6 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

94L.INVEST

And while we're at it, might as well mention this one, too. Just added as an invest, and mentioned in the NHC discussion as follows:

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1700 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

Hasn't been much coming from these waves lately, but worth mentioning. --Patteroast 15:48, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I can't see this one developing into anything. CrazyC83 16:11, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

2005 has not been friendly to anything near Africa. The Great Zo 16:19, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

2005 has been an extremely strange season, so we should be a bit precautious in trusting climatology, Zo. ;) --tomf688^{talk} 18:56, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Indeed it has been a strange one - and the lack of Cape-Verde-type development in 2005 is a very big part of why it's been a strange season. Thus, I'd either expect that weirdness to continue (i.e. it doesn't develop) or the thing hits Cat 3 and turns back towards Africa. The Great Zo 21:43, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Even if it does develop, it most likely wouldn't become very powerful and would be a fish-spinner anyway. Not only has this season not been kind to Cape Verde storms, but October isn't friendly to Cape Verde storms either. bob rulz 22:34, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

This season hasn't been very kind to the Gulf coast either.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 00:15, 6 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

10:30 PM TWO says:

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD IS WELL ORGANIZED
AND IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE DEVELOPING AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

-- RattleMan 03:21, 6 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Week 2

So we come into Week 2 still pretty busy...this could be a long October, extending an already-atrocious season! CrazyC83 15:14, 8 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

22L.NONAME

95L.INVEST

Backup Navy site says 95L. -- RattleMan 21:46, 7 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

That must be this one from the outlook:

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

If we get a named subtropical storm we can have hours of fun debating whether it's really a record or not (as such storms weren't named before 2002 and none are recorded in the archives before 1968).--Keith Edkins 22:13, 7 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

It should count, all unnamed subtropical storms on record should be included in storm counts...also in 1969, there were technically 18 tropical storms and one subtropical storm, but I'd record it as 19 storms... CrazyC83 22:57, 7 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Actually, 1969 had 17 tropical storms, and one subtropcial storm. http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1969/index.html

As you can see, there was a total of 18 storms, one of which was subtropical. Hurricanehink 03:20, 8 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

(Sub-)Tropical Depression 22

It's official according to NRL's backup site. Computer models also initiated on this system. Hello Vince!?!? Hurricanehink 13:32, 8 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Why doesn't the original NRL update for 95L.INVEST & 22L.NONAME? 200.124.33.188 14:24, 8 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Oops, looks like we have our third October storm, and it doesn't look like it has a chance of becoming a major storm to me... and Dr. Gray tells us that one of the three storms will be a major hurricane... A simple case of miscalculation? If were going to have Wilma in the ff. days and becoming the major hurricane that would make us neglect all Dr. Gray's forecast for this month, and I think we are going to see alpha this month too! RoswellAtup 01:04, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I don't know what you are referring to. Dr. Gray has not issued a forecast specifically for the month of October. --Holderca1 17:13, 8 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Actually, he did issue one on October 3. "Our October-only forecast calls for three named storms, two hurricanes, one major hurricane and NTC activity of 30 which is well above the mean October-only average value of 18." - Obviously, that'll have to be more than 3 named storms now, since people seem confident that Vince will get named storm status (and that'd make 3 already). AySz88^-^ 23:56, 8 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Interesting that they call it a Subtropical Depression...what's subtropical about TD22? Anyway I don't think this is October's major storm, although I can see this becoming a Category 1 hurricane before reaching New England... CrazyC83 15:06, 8 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Not to be mean, but you predict a lot of bad things about many storms that weren't that bad. I know Katrina and Rita have made us gun-shy, but not everything is going to be the big one. Reminds me of Sanford and Son. Mike H (Talking is hot) 16:22, 8 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Although I really do think there will be a big one still to come, it won't be this one. Too far north and it's going into unstable conditions. It will have to be Wilma - or a Greek letter. CrazyC83 22:25, 8 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Would this really be the first time a V name was used? --Revolución (talk) 15:33, 8 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Yes it would. It would be only the second time we got 20 tropical storms that warrant names, and the other was 1933 when storms were not named. CrazyC83 16:18, 8 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

@mike: There has been a great deal of wishcasting here ever since the season began, but there isn't much that can be done except to gently remind people that they are much too overzealous sometimes. Furthermore, considering the shear this system might encounter, it will be lucky if it survives for more than several days. --tomf688^{talk} 16:49, 8 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

If this becomes Vince, we will put the Western Pacific behind in the count again. Currently, we have more overall tropical cyclones (22 as opposed to WP's 20) but we are tied in named storms (19-19). That is one of the reasons I'm cheering this storm on. The other reason being that it's likely to be a fishie. The Atlantic is like the National League of hurricanes and the West Pacific's like the American League: Atlantic's good, but the West Pacific's always better.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 17:56, 8 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

And don't worry about "should we count this season as having 20 storms if Vince is subtropical", they seem moderately confident that it will become a tropical storm. Nicole in 2004 was notable as the first ever named subtropical storm that never attained tropical characteristics (I think), so they usually do become tropical. --Golbez 18:06, 8 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

It's also possible that it may become full-fledged Tropical Depression 22 before reaching tropical storm status... CrazyC83 22:22, 8 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Or it could dissipate, like the NHC says it's doing right now. So much for a cat-1 hurricane striking New England, eh? ;) --tomf688^{talk} 02:56, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Yup, it dissipated. -- RattleMan 03:30, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

There is a (slight) chance of redevelopment though...I figured it would weaken on the approach anyway (it wouldn't hit as a hurricane) as the waters up there are cooler. CrazyC83 03:46, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO IS CENTERED ABOUT 240 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE WARMER GULFSTREAM. THIS MAY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... WHICH WOULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHFSAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

Anyone noticed this lately? User:tdwuhs

Yabba-Dabba-Doo! [13] -- RattleMan 05:30, 11 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

23L.Vince

AoI:10W2-A

11:30 AM TWO mentions:

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANARY ISLANDS.  WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS
OVER RELATIVELY COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
MONITORED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNS OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT.

And the TWD says:

AN UPPER LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR 33N20W AND ODDLY 
ENOUGH A TIGHT CORE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 45 NM OF 
THE CENTER...GIVING THE SYSTEM AN ALMOST TROPICAL APPEARANCE. A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S AND SE OF THE LOW FROM THE WESTERN 
CANARY ISLANDS SW TO 23N30W AND IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A 
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE CANARY 
AND MADEIRA ISLANDS...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY COLD-CORE AND IS 
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL OVER THE COLDER WATERS OF THE NE 
ATLC. FARTHER E...THE DEEP TROUGH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE 
ALL THE WAY UP TO THE STRAITS OF GIBRALTAR AND SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER MOROCCO AND WESTERN SAHARA 
FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 8W-15W.

-- RattleMan 18:06, 8 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

96L.INVEST

Now an invest, according to backup navy site. Very close to the Strait of Gibralter! [14] --tomf688^{talk} 20:00, 8 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I can't see this one developing into a named storm...too far off the beaten path... CrazyC83 22:23, 8 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Has any tropical cyclone ever affected Europe or western Africa? 22:38, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

There have been a couple that hit Ireland or Scotland as tropical storms, and I seem to dimly recall one hitting Portugal, though that may have been after it was declared extratropical. --69.86.16.61 03:02, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

...is it just me, or does it look somewhat like a HURRICANE now? It has a closed eye! [15] -- RattleMan 03:21, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

There is definitely an "eye", but judging from the nearby continents, the storm seems to be very small. --tomf688^{talk} 03:34, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Actually... check out this page about unusual formation areas for more info on Moroccan vortices. This fits the description of one of these types of storms very well. --tomf688^{talk} 03:40, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Very small it may be, but that's certainly a Subtropical Storm, if not a Subtropical Cyclone (this is the current naming for a hurricane-strength subtropical system, yes?). Vince formed and nobody noticed. Also, those Morrocan storms look to be even smaller than this one and are much closer to shore. --69.86.16.61 03:43, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Maybe it's time to do something usually wasteful - sending a Hurricane Hunter into a far-away storm! I'm sure it could be declared Tropical Storm #23 (or Hurricane #23) in the postseason reports if they let this one slip out of their hands...it may look like a hurricane, but I can't see that having 75 mph (hurricane-force) winds in that system. 40 mph (tropical storm-force) maybe... CrazyC83 03:47, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I wonder if it is something similar to those Mediteranean storms which were suspected to be tropical cyclones. I think sending a Hurricane Hunter is not wasteful. This will give us a clearer idea about this system and, perhaps, those Mediteranean storms as well.

Based on satelite pictures, I really don't know why they are so confident that it is cold-core.--Momoko 11:03, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I've been able to make out the coordinates - it is currently located at 32.9°N, 19.8°W. Looking at the infrared, it looks even more spectacular in the northwest section (which means it is probably moving west-northwest or due west). (Click on 85V - it is a long link). Also according to the "Wind" section, it seems to be about 40-50 knots (obscured by a missed data in the center of the storm). Going by what I have, this should at least be a 35-40 knot tropical storm. Clearest 'eye' shot yet! CrazyC83 04:04, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

It's looking better now: [16] Also, someone added this in the Timeline of events (of all places; ~~I reverted it though~~ Golbez and I reverted it at the same time): "Unnamed cyclone. A system at 30 north/20 was shown by Trmm/85h data to have developed a clear closed eyewall. This system also shown to have a tight wind field on quickscat data. This was all supported by sab t numbers of 3.0ST. A visible eye was seen on Ir satellite the night of 9th of October. The system was slowly moving to the northeast." Should we rewrite and add this to the article, or wait for official confirmation? -- RattleMan 05:49, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Storm Vince

It's Vince! http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Computer models initiated the storm for 96L. Hurricanehink 13:16, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Congratulations everyone, we are now the first season ever to use a V name, and now officially the second-most active season on record! Also, this is the earliest 20th tropical storm by 17 days! -- RattleMan 13:24, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Can't see this remaining a tropical storm for very long, but once extratropical, it could reach hurricane intensity... CrazyC83 15:39, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

"Congratulations"? That's a pretty odd thing to say, as I'm sure nobody here is creating hurricanes. I'll assume that was some strange, subtle form of humor. RSpeer 07:04, 10 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Interesting to read the preliminary report on Hurricane Ivan (1980), which developed in a similar place and time of year:

The dynamics of a development such as Ivan are not well understood. Sea-surface
temperatures during formation were about 23°C and at no time did they exceed
25.5°C. The paths of the surface and 200 mb lows were very similar...

The circumstances seem to describe Vince pretty well. Maybe theory has advanced in the intervening 25 years?--Keith Edkins 16:42, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I believe it was mentioned above but this storm seems to have an eye. This would be the second less-than-hurricane storm that had an eye this season, the other was Arlene. Is it just me, or does Vince look a hell of a lot like the south Atlantic hurricane last March? Doesn't look as strong, but it looks about the same size, shape, and structure.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 17:24, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I think you meant Cindy (which probably was a Category 1 hurricane, although it will be up to the NHC to confirm it in the post-season reports), not Arlene, that had the eye (Arlene was incredibly disorganized - the west side was basically clear). It does look a lot like the south Atlantic hurricane. Has any tropical storm ever formed north of 40°N? CrazyC83 17:39, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

It's going backwards! toward Europe.... weird... [17] --Revolución (talk) 17:48, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

No, I do in fact mean Arlene. While Arlene was disorganized, it showed a hint of an eye before landfall. Look at Arlene's sat photos on the Navy site. I tried to link you directly to the picture, but the Navy site won't display the URL in the box [mutters a curse]. [18].

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 20:17, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Yep, Arlene had an eye right before landfall. It can be seen here, here, and here.200.74.188.7 17:18, 10 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Hurricane Vince

NHC now reports Vince as a hurricane. Wow! [19] -- RattleMan 20:55, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

This season just gets stranger and stranger...according to the discussion: "IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION." It might have been a hurricane since last night, when someone here caught it...the NHC is lucky that it stayed afloat, otherwise it might have been one giant embarrasment to miss a storm (which would have had to be declared Hurricane #23 in the post-season analysis). CrazyC83 21:49, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Forecast has it making a landfall in northwestern Spain and Portugal , and it could possibly make a second landfall in France, or it could hit the UK or Ireland if it makes a sudden move to the left. --Revolución (talk) 21:55, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

That has got to be the strangest location for a hurricane to form. Not only that, the NHC almost missed it! It's probably been a hurricane for a day or two already. Someone should look for a picture of it for the article, both for balancing purposes and for having an image of such an unusual storm (almost as notable as Cyclone Catarina, I think). --69.86.16.61 22:58, 9 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

There's a nice but raw image here: context 323k image AySz88^-^ 00:09, 10 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Is it a hurricane or a polar low? It would seem that a warm core storm could form anywhere if the temperature differential existed. Convection is a product of temperature (atmospheric and SSTS), humidity and vapor pressure, not just SSTS, which, for some reason, is the only thing a lot of people are focusing on. Warm core cyclones resembling hurricanes have existed for years in upper latitudes, called polar lows. I really don't think there is a fundamental difference in these types of storms. I am not surprised by this. --Mm35173 01:41, 10 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

AySz88, thanks for the sat photos! Don't kid yourself, those are good-quality images. I've been dealing with nothing but crap since this morning. Doesn't this[20] look a lot like this [21]? I found that really curious. Of course the latter and more famous storm got a bit stronger and better organized, but still.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 02:29, 10 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Speaking of which, that image of Vince is better than the one up right now. Perhaps it should be used as the image. --69.86.16.61 03:14, 10 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Is Vince related to the remnants of tropical depression 19? can anyone answer me? -- RoswellAtup 01:05, 10 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

So we now have vince.... the third storm for this October... I thought Dr Gray says that there would be three named storms and one major hurricane... no where the heck is the major hurricane among this three? a simple case of miscalculations? -- RoswellAtup 01:05, 10 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Which is much smaller in size? hurricane vince or cyclone tracy? -- RoswellAtup 01:05, 10 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Roswell... the experts make educated guesses, nothing more. They have little idea what will actually happen, since the tropics are still quite the enigma (as can be seen with Vince). Take any prediction with a grain of salt. --tomf688^{talk} 18:54, 10 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

We could possibly have a tropical cyclone hit Europe. That's unprecidented! It's expected to make landfall sometime early tomorrow morning. Even if it does become extratropical just before landfall, it's still incredible. I mean, I can't believe were even talking about this: a potential tropical storm hitting Europe.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:14, 11 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

It is pretty amazing. Even the NHC agrees: "WELL... THE LONG AND STRANGE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES AS TROPICAL STORM VINCE BEARS DOWN ON THE SOUTHERN IBERIAN PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO" [22]. They also to be predicting that it will make landfall before becoming extratropical. Completely unprecedented, and, if Vince does make landfall before becoming extratropical, it deserves its own article. --69.86.16.61 03:36, 11 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

from the NHC site:

THE HISTORICAL RECORD SHOWS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE EVER MAKING LANDFALL

ON THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM FARO

PORTUGAL...THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF

PORTUGAL...BEFORE BECOMING THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE

LANDFALL IN SPAIN.

i. e. looks like Vince is another record-setter. 80.178.189.213 08:54, 11 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I would agree with an article split on this one. There is an off chance it may get retired as well. Wouldn't be the first time the WMO retired a storm name for being unique rather than devastating. --Holderca1 12:41, 11 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Really, Holderca? I'd be very excited to hear about it, any examples. With regard to an article split, if someone can put together a good article and not just copy and paste the section from the main article. A good article was done on notable, but not terribly destructive Tropical Storm Odette. Hurricane Faith also has an article on it (by me in fact) and it wasn't terribly destructive. There are plenty of other examples, so if someone can put together an interesting and good quality article, by all means go for it.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 13:15, 11 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Typhoon Vamei in December of 2001 had its name retired mainly due to its unusual location of formation (only 100 miles north of the equator) and making landfall where typhoons normally don't hit (Singapore). Sounds very similar to Vince, doesn't it? --Holderca1 16:04, 11 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Yea, what hurricanes have been retired just for being unusual? I have an idea! why don't we make an article listing all the unusual storms. Fableheroesguild 13:26, 11 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I wouldn't expect Vince to be retired - they don't normally get retired for being unusual. However, I don't see why it can't get the main article Hurricane Vince, after all there is no other disambiguation and what are the chances we'll reach that in 2011? If the date should be placed in, it should go to Hurricane Vince (2005) with the main article redirecting to that page. CrazyC83 15:16, 11 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I've created the page Hurricane Vince, with a heavy emphasis on the peculiarities of the storm, including its controversial development. (I left out the year in the name for now since, while it has almost no chance at being retired, there is no disambiguation and what are the chances of reaching it in 2011?) CrazyC83 15:59, 11 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Crazy C, the western Pacific has a different retiring system than the Atlantic, E. Pacific and C. Pacific. The names there are retired at the discretion of the country that submitted it. Typhoons that killed hundreds have not been retired and storms that didn't do much damage got retired. Fable, the best place to list unusual stuff is in the List of notable tropical cyclones.

E. Brown Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 16:32, 11 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

The names in NW Pacific are retired at the discretion of WMO Typhoon Committee, not the country that submitted it. The replacement of names may be requested by the country/region being affetced, the country/region that submitted the name or any other country/region that objects the name.

Typhoons that killed hundreds have not been retired is simply because the country/region being affected did not request for the retirement of name.Momoko 10:14, 12 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

97L.INVEST

The backup Navy site says there's a new invest in the Antilles. 200.74.188.7 17:02, 10 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

That's looking like Wilma to me [23], but the NHC says the winds are too unfavorable. After Vince, I'd expect anything, however. --69.86.16.61 03:39, 11 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Who cares about the old rules - it's the 2005 season after all! The only question mark that remains is will peace finally come in November, or will it be pure hell right down to the wire (and possibly even beyond the boundary)? CrazyC83 04:00, 11 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

It looks good until you consider that the low pressure circulation center is that thin swirl over 150 miles northwest of the deep convection you see there.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 13:18, 11 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

What is the boundary? I know the season ends November 30th, but at what date would they actually stop adding storms to the current list and start with the 'A' storm for next year. Is it January 1? Naraht 15:46, 11 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Yes. January 1 is the start of the next year, so logically they would stop using this list to name storms on that date.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 16:26, 11 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

That would be one strange storm if Tropical Storm or Hurricane Alberto of 2006 developed in January, when the waters are seldom warm enough for development and wind shear is extreme... CrazyC83 16:38, 11 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Have you forgotten about Hurricane Alice, which became a hurricane on December 31, 1954? --tomf688^{talk} 20:03, 11 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Look at the UKMET model - is it out to lunch or what? It holds the system back, then gradually intensifies it, then once north of 40°N, BOOM! It drops down at least 30 mb (those charts tend to underestimate pressure so I'd say at least 960 mb based on my estimate) - to a major hurricane at 42°N before landfall in Nova Scotia! Is it even possible for a storm to enter rapid intensification at that latitude? [24] CrazyC83 02:06, 13 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Maybe over the Gulf Stream. --69.86.16.61 16:30, 13 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

If that is correct, we are seeing another wierd storm like Vince on our hands. Fableheroesguild 04:01, 14 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Areas of Interest

AoI:10W2B - Large Outlook

I have yet to see a TWO with this much text on it this season. [25] Talk about active tropics! --tomf688^{talk} 22:00, 6 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Pasting for posterity:

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICS ARE ACTIVE TODAY BUT NONE OF THE SYSTEMS POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. DATA FROM THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE INDICATE THAT UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN PORTIONS OF CUBA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN 1000 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME BUT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TAMMY CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES WEST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA....UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

Wow, amazing TWO. -- RattleMan 22:42, 6 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

The first two of those are 93L and 94L.INVEST. But the other areas weren't mentioned yet. --Patteroast 23:35, 6 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Makes you wonder at what point they would say there isn't any "elsewhere" left!--Keith Edkins 08:05, 7 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]