User talk:William M. Connolley

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To speak to another with consideration, to appear before him with decency and humility, is to honour him; as signs of fear to offend. To speak to him rashly, to do anything before him obscenely, slovenly, impudently is to dishonour. Leviathan, X. User:William M. Connolley/For me/The naming of cats Googlebombing: Coton school UK Joanna Haigh Proverb: if you have nothing new to say, don't say it. Thought for the day: paulgraham.com/discover There's no light the foolish can see better by [1] You are welcome to leave messages here. I will reply here (rather than on, say, your user page). Conversely, if I've left a message on your talk page, I'm watching it, so please reply there. In general, I prefer to conduct my discussions in public. If you have a question for me, put it here (or on the article talk, or...) rather than via email. I "archive" (i.e. delete old stuff) quite aggressively (it makes up for my untidiness in real life). If you need to pull something back from the history, please do. Once. Please leave messages about issues I'm already involved in on the talk page of the article or project page in question. My Contribs • Blocks • Protects • Deletions • Block log • Count watchers • Edit count • WikiBlame

The Holding Pen

Ocean acidification

A reader writes:

"Leaving aside direct biological effects, it is expected that ocean acidification in the future will lead to a significant decrease in the burial of carbonate sediments for several centuries, and even the dissolution of existing carbonate sediments.[31] This will cause an elevation of ocean alkalinity, leading to the enhancement of the ocean as a reservoir for CO2 with moderate (and potentially beneficial) implications for climate change as more CO2 leaves the atmosphere for the ocean.[32]"

I'm not sure, but it sounds odd. You can beat me to it if you like William M. Connolley (talk) 18:09, 3 May 2009 (UTC)

Hmm, looks like it was User:Plumbago [2] William M. Connolley (talk) 18:27, 3 May 2009 (UTC)

Correctly deduced. It was me. It may not be worded well, but I think that it's factually correct. Basically, as well as its other effects on living organisms in the ocean, acidification is also expected (see the references) to dissolve existing carbonate sediments in the oceans. This will increase the ocean's alkalinity inventory, which in turn increases its buffering capacity for CO2 - that is, the ocean can then store more CO2 at equilibrium than before (i.e. the "implications for climate change" alluded to). As a sidenote, it also means that palaeo scientists interested in inferring the past from carbonate sediment records will have to work fast (well, centuries) before their subject matter dissolves away! Hope this helps. --PLUMBAGO 06:08, 4 May 2009 (UTC)

Double diffusive convection

Bit surprised there is no article on DDC? Has the term gone out of fashion? It was half the course in "Buoyancy in Fluid Dynamics" when I did Part III 23 years ago. --BozMo talk 13:13, 12 May 2009 (UTC)

I remember is was a nice demo on the fluid dynamics summer school DAMPT ran. Not sure I would still be confident of writing it up 10:05, 13 May 2009 (UTC)

I might have to suggest it to Huppert or someone. --BozMo talk 10:23, 13 May 2009 (UTC)

If one of you two makes a stub, I'd be willing to read up on it and make it a longer stub. Awickert (talk) 10:28, 13 May 2009 (UTC)

What a kind offer. I have started here: Double diffusive convection--BozMo talk 10:55, 13 May 2009 (UTC)

All right - I'll get to it (eventually). It's on my to-do list. Awickert (talk) 16:42, 13 May 2009 (UTC)

CSS site

Forgive the quick note, but I happened to notice the comments at the top about CSS, and some places to learn about it. I second the site mentioned, but also take a look at the CSS Zen Garden at [[3]] - it's a great place to quickly see what CSS is capable of doing. Basically, it's a site where people take the exact same HMTL page, but use a different .css file, and completely change how the page looks. Ravensfire2002 (talk) 14:48, 1 July 2009 (UTC)

Current

Your ArbCom userpage comment

Need to finish this off
The following discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it.
I know that you were disappointed by the conduct and results of the case, and I'm sure you're aware that I voted against most of the remedies proposed against you and share some portion of your feelings. However, I respectfully suggest that calling one of my colleagues a "fool" on-wiki is not helpful. We all accept a great deal of criticism and commentary as par for the course in connection with serving as arbitrators—just as you have as one of our active administrators on contentious topics—but I always still think it's better, and more effective, to stay away from the overtly ad hominem. Regards, Newyorkbrad (talk) 13:35, 12 September 2009 (UTC) Ah, you've found it :-). And while you are here, thank you for your votes. I am indeed deeply disappointed by the conduct of your colleagues; and I regret having to disappoint you now. Arbcomm are big boys and girls and can cope with some discrete criticism of their actions. Moreover, you (arbcomm, I can't recall how you personally voted) established the principle that users are entitled to insult a blocking admin as much as they please on their own talk pages; I'm sure you'll extend a similar privilidge to those who desysop people William M. Connolley (talk) 13:40, 12 September 2009 (UTC) I should add that there is a diff there justifying the appelation. I regard the extensive comment re the cabal as being grotesquely stupid. However this carries no implication that is the most foolish thing that particular arb has done in this case William M. Connolley (talk) 17:01, 12 September 2009 (UTC) Nobody is entitled to insult anyone here William. If arbcom has passed some sort of rule the "entitles" users to insult a blocking admin(and I seriously doubt they have) then I would use good sense and ignore such an "entitlement" as unproductive. Chillum 14:11, 12 September 2009 (UTC) Really? Are you certain of your ground here? Suppose someone were to call the arbcomm "liars" or "lying bastards" or "ridiculous" or "devious" or compare them to a third world Junta? Do you think that would be actionable? William M. Connolley (talk) 17:01, 12 September 2009 (UTC) I think it would be rather poor judgment. Just because something is not actionable does not make it an entitlement. Chillum 17:46, 12 September 2009 (UTC) If you mean the arbcomm's decision permitting this, I entirely agree with you. However, until they are wise enough to revoke it (and alas I fear we will have rather a long time to wait for wisdom from them) we are stuck with it William M. Connolley (talk) 17:49, 12 September 2009 (UTC) I haven't looked to see which arb was accused of being a "fool," but am curious how would "Stephen Bain should not be entrusted with anything more valuable than a ball of string" would be received. I'd like to know before I say that. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 14:34, 12 September 2009 (UTC)

Wikipedia:Arbitration/Requests/Case/Abd-William M. Connolley

Ditto
The following discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it.
This arbitration case has been closed, and the final decision is available in full at the link above. As a result of this case: The cold fusion article, and parts of any other articles substantially about cold fusion, are placed under discretionary sanctions. Abd (talk · contribs · deleted contribs · logs · filter log · block user · block log) is banned for a period of three months from Wikipedia, and for a period of one year from the cold fusion article. These bans are to run concurrently. Additionally, Abd is prohibited from participating in discussions about disputes in which he is not one of the originating parties, including but not limited to article talk pages, user talk pages, administrator noticeboards, and any formal or informal dispute resolution, however not including votes or comments at polls. Abd is also admonished for edit-warring on Arbitration case pages, engaging in personal attacks, and failing to support allegations of misconduct. William M. Connolley (talk · contribs · blocks · protections · deletions · page moves · rights · RfA)'s administrator rights are revoked. He may apply for their reinstatement at any time via Requests for Adminship or appeal to the Committee. William M. Connolley is also admonished for edit warring on Arbitration case pages. Mathsci (talk · contribs · deleted contribs · logs · filter log · block user · block log) is reminded not to edit war and to avoid personal attacks. The community is urged to engage in a policy discussion and clarify under what circumstances, if any, an administrator may issue topic or page bans without seeking consensus for them, and how such bans may be appealed. This discussion should come to a consensus within one month of this notice. On behalf of the Arbitration Committee, Hersfold (t/a/c) 22:58, 13 September 2009 (UTC) I'm am sorry to see that your adminship has been revoked. I believe that our circumstances are similar in a way. I too was once an admin and lost my tools mainly due to conflicts on articles related to the events surrounding the 9/11 attacks. I know that the vast majority of my content creation and all my FA's were done after I was desysopped...with that said I am hoping that we can still look forward to your wisdom and guidance in those areas you have so instrumental in and that you will continue to help us build as reliable a reference base as we can achieve. Best wishes to you!--MONGO 03:24, 14 September 2009 (UTC) Not a great day for Arbcom or the project. However I doubt you will take it too personally. --BozMo talk 08:39, 14 September 2009 (UTC) Thanks to you both William M. Connolley (talk) 22:25, 14 September 2009 (UTC) I ask that you please accept my nomination to regain your administrative rights at RFA. 99.191.73.2 (talk) 13:23, 14 September 2009 (UTC) Vair tempting. I fear that was the wrong forum. I shall ponder this matter William M. Connolley (talk) 21:26, 14 September 2009 (UTC) I'm sorry to hear this, William. You were a good admin. I hope you won't let it bother you. SlimVirgin talk|contribs 00:24, 15 September 2009 (UTC) I rarely comment in RFA, nor do I monitor them. If you ever decide to be re-nominated, I would appreciate a courtesy notice as otherwise I will almost certainly not be aware of the discussion. WLU (t) (c) Wikipedia's rules:simple/complex 16:45, 15 September 2009 (UTC) Interesting [4] Hardly surprising that arbcom wants to keep their mess as far from view as possible. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) Weird. Who is it supposed to be a courtesy too? I've asked C User_talk:Carcharoth#CB. Certainly it seems to me that the people most embarassed by that page would be arbcomm William M. Connolley (talk) 07:17, 15 September 2009 (UTC) Woonpton expressed a desire for blanking, both during the case and at WT:AC/N. As I understand it, she feels that having Abd's allegations about cabal-ism visible were and are slandering her and everyone else smeared by the accusations. EdChem (talk) 07:25, 15 September 2009 (UTC) You might also want to look at User_talk:Cool_Hand_Luke#Thanks_and_question for more on Woonpton's view, as well as the thread immediately above it. EdChem (talk) 08:09, 15 September 2009 (UTC) This giant spwaling ill-managed case now extends to Wikipedia_talk:Arbitration_Committee/Noticeboard#Courtesy_blanking_of_case_pages. Sigh - I thought they had finally managed to finish this case, but not, they drag its stinking corpse out of the grave and prop it up again William M. Connolley (talk) 08:40, 15 September 2009 (UTC) Not sure which section is best to post this, but I would be delighted to renominate you at RFA or support you if you decide to run. Stifle (talk) 16:32, 15 September 2009 (UTC)

Fools and their foolishness

Yes, it needs finishing
The following discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it.
Regarding [5], you are quite welcome to raise any of your concerns or points on my talk page. I'm quite open to constructive feedback, even if it's harsh or drastically opposed to my views or actions. I even promise not to seek a block if you call me a fool. However, if you call me Mungojerrie or make me listen to "Memory", it's war! :-) (If you prefer to keep everything together, we could easily have the same discussion at User talk:William M. Connolley/For me/Misc arbcomm-y stuff.) Vassyana (talk) 14:42, 24 September 2009 (UTC) Thanks. I'll decline your permission to call you a fool on your page, though, since I think that would be wrong. The "Misc" page needs some more work when I hve a spare moment William M. Connolley (talk) 14:49, 24 September 2009 (UTC) I am mostly interested in what you find most troublesome about my statement and what harm you think it would bring if taken to heart. It is entirely possible that there is a misunderstanding or that I simply communicated ineffectively. Even if it is the simple fact that our opinions are on opposite poles, it would be valuable for me to better understand your concerns. I'll keep an eye on the subpage and remain available for discussion. Vassyana (talk) 14:59, 24 September 2009 (UTC) I thought some of your decisions were described as foolishness. This is not in my view the same as calling you a fool. Everyone makes foolish decisions and sometimes takes foolish actions. Criticising an action as foolish IMHO is not a personal attack whereas calling the actor a fool is. As for the troublesome statement the problem I have with it is "Fernseeds and elephants" (roughly that you are staring out of the window discerning a fern seed in the distance when there is an elephant in the room, to paraphrase CS Lewis) you say "there is certainly a kernel of truth to the concerns in that there is a certain indentifiable group that appears to act in a mutually supporting fashion" completely misses the bigger problem which drives people with nothing more in common than a basic understanding of science to "appear to act in concert". On most ordinary differentiators (religion, politics, hair length, social class?) I am opposites to WMC (we do both have kids I think) but he has a scientific training of sorts and D Phil in maths from the one of the better universities in the UK and a background in scientific modelling, and I have good scientific training, a PhD from the better place and a background in scientific modelling and that means when faced with utter rubbish (someone who thinks that Global Warming violates the second law of thermodynamics) we tend to agree. So perhaps it is a concern to you that there is an appearance of a Cabal but there is also a concern in the appearance of idiocy on some of the groups who attack. You say "commonly overwhelmed by involved opinion and regularly featured involved editors !voting and/or commenting as though they were uninvolved users providing an opinion" but when I look I see five or six identifiable anti WMC anti science editors who never miss an opportunity to express a view and perhaps fifty scientifically trained editors who each take a turn for a few months patiently explaining to these people and then move back to the middle of the penguin huddle. A lot of the antogonists I am sure are 14 year olds who don't understand the limits of their knowledge. Some are confident readers of trashy news papers or have strong political motivation. The idea though that this is an issue about the editors who protect WP as is as silly as saying that wikiproject medicine is a "troubling conspiracy" of wikipedians who are medically qualified trying to keep wikipedia in line with established medical practice. --BozMo talk 19:52, 24 September 2009 (UTC) Based on your response, I'm going to venture that a failure on my part to communicate more clearly is a principal culprit. Let me try restating my point: There's no evil Cabal. There is a group of like-minded editors that support each other. This is usually beneficial to Wikipedia. The main harmful activity I see is involved* editors overwhelming content and conduct discussions on noticeboards, especially when involved* editors present their opinions as though they were uninvolved parties and/or generate the false appearance of outside consensus. (*"Involved" defined simply as actually previously or currently involved in content disputes within the topic area that are directly relevant to the discussion or substantial conflict with the main involved parties.) A complete rejection of all concerns about "clique editing" is inappropriate in the face of this very real problem. I will certainly agree that this is at least as much of a problem with pseudoscience/fringe editors as with skeptical/scientific editors. Indeed, I say it is more of a problem with the former than the latter, if for no other reason than fringe editors' preferred versions are usually inaccurate presentations with far worse NPOV violations and gaming the content noticeboards allows them set policy precedents grossly at odds with the principles invoked. I hope this better clarifies what I was trying to express (obviously with limited success and much misunderstanding). If I can further clarify, or if you or anyone else wishes to discuss it further, I remain available to do so. Vassyana (talk) 11:54, 25 September 2009 (UTC) Thanks Bozmo. I've cut my hair recently so we may not be too far opposed on that aspect (unless you now have long hair). As to expanding the page - that will come in time. I'm glad you (V) are watching but I'm afraid I've grown rather discouraged by arbcomms ability to learn, so I won't be in a hurry. That page is mostly for me, though you are free to ask questions there if you like and I'll probbaly answer. In the meantime, on the "fools" issue, User:William_M._Connolley/For_me/On_civility#Misc_arbcomm-y_stuff refers William M. Connolley (talk) 20:11, 24 September 2009 (UTC) Everyone does at least two foolish things a day, but only some of us can do six impossible things before breakfast. Verbal chat 20:16, 24 September 2009 (UTC) Second BozMo. A clear description of the situation. My hair is short, my Dr. rer. nat. is from one of the better German universities, and I represent the "no kids" demography. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 09:10, 25 September 2009 (UTC)

I just found this

Oh look: http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2009/10/15/web-iquette-for-climate-discussions/ Isn't that good? William M. Connolley (talk) 22:31, 15 October 2009 (UTC)

He used web-iquette for medical discussions as a guide. That reminds me of How Doctors Think which is a great work on how brilliant, well trained, experienced people can get things wrong every day. I wonder if there is a way to do the same thing. Ignignot (talk) 13:17, 16 October 2009 (UTC)

Wondring aloud

I have to wonder if there isn't some deliberate foot dragging, given sentiments previously expressed by Arbcom and other insiders. Lt. Gen. Pedro Subramanian (talk) 22:59, 29 November 2009 (UTC)

Um. I missed the Raul stuff in August and now feel guilty about not expressing my sympathy (literally in this case :-(). Old score settling I suspect William M. Connolley (talk) 23:05, 29 November 2009 (UTC)

What Raul stuff in Aug? Email if you prefer. --BozMo talk 07:03, 30 November 2009 (UTC)

Nothing secret, just not common knowledge. It is off on some arbcomm-y type page; Raul dropping CU tools; I'd find the link except someone watching can probably find it quicker William M. Connolley (talk) 09:39, 30 November 2009 (UTC)

Wikipedia:Arbitration Committee/Noticeboard#Raul654 -Atmoz (talk) 17:06, 30 November 2009 (UTC)

Silverspoon

Seen http://s3.amazonaws.com/infobeautiful/climate_skeptics_960.gif ? --BozMo talk 16:43, 6 January 2010 (UTC)

Ah ha

If you want to know just how plummy and posh my accent is I am number 44 [6]. Sorry about the "ums" I am out of practice. --BozMo talk 10:19, 8 January 2010 (UTC)

Or the video version here: [7] alongside Vicky Pope who you may know, Frank Kelly and Ewan Kirk but I am a long way in. --BozMo talk 10:28, 8 January 2010 (UTC)

Not very plummy, but certainly interesting, though I haven't had time to hear it all yet. For entertainment, though, you can't match Electric Six :-) William M. Connolley (talk) 10:41, 8 January 2010 (UTC)

Only because the sound of rotating corpses can be heard clear across the Atlantic. ;) the best thing about Lincoln is the wig and mitre I seem to remember. --BozMo talk 11:57, 8 January 2010 (UTC)

Is that hairline natural? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 12:32, 8 January 2010 (UTC)

Mine or Lincoln's? Despite being older than you, Stephan, the barber still needs to thin my hair on top. But I do have rather more middle aged spread...turns out after much research that this is linked to eating too much. --BozMo talk 13:11, 8 January 2010 (UTC)

My hair has been successfully converted to auto-thinning. I can confirm the spreading, but I deny any relationship to eating. That's just an international conspiracy of know-nothing nutritionists. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 13:19, 8 January 2010 (UTC)

You guys are weird. Stop it. Ignignot (talk) 15:53, 8 January 2010 (UTC)

Why? It's not as if the world is not in need of a decent amount of weirdness... --Stephan Schulz (talk) 16:20, 8 January 2010 (UTC)

Love the stats in Excel analogy.  :) Guettarda (talk) 16:17, 8 January 2010 (UTC)

Thanks :). "Having multi-variate regression on Excel is like selling Class A drugs over the counter in a pharmacy in a lunatic asylum"...made up on the spot I think although I guess I may have heard it before somewhere. --BozMo talk 17:04, 8 January 2010 (UTC)

William Connolley

The William Connolley article could do with a better picture. Is there any PD images taken front on that you know of? -- Alan Liefting (talk) - 22:44, 8 January 2010 (UTC)

I like that pic :-). You can have the arbcomm one if you like William M. Connolley (talk) 22:52, 8 January 2010 (UTC)

This is an encyclopaedia not the family photo album! :-) Need something at least a bit more formal. -- Alan Liefting (talk) - 22:58, 8 January 2010 (UTC)

[8]? (I know, that is tasteless, but I couldn't resist). Anyway, I don't have his ties. You aren't the first to ask though, so I'll dredge the albums William M. Connolley (talk) 23:13, 8 January 2010 (UTC)

"You don't have permission to view this photo."--BozMo talk 23:26, 8 January 2010 (UTC)

By golly, that's a relief. Still, I've fixed it now William M. Connolley (talk) 23:29, 8 January 2010 (UTC)

Oh, just that one? Isn't that your fb profile pic? Guettarda (talk) 23:33, 8 January 2010 (UTC)

Just that one :-( I'll try harder next time :-) William M. Connolley (talk) 23:44, 9 January 2010 (UTC)

Thermal underwear

Idealized greenhouse model, or the section below

Thermal trousers with special emission properties May I ask a question? I stress that I am not trying to do any original research, but only want to improve the GW article by explaining what is fundamental to the AGW hypothesis. I don't think the current article really explains it very well. My question: I did some Googling and the Stefan-Boltzmann equation (or rather a derivative of it) seems to be fundamental. But there are two versions of it, as follows: S0/4*(1-alpha) = e*sigmaT^4 S0/4*(1-alpha)+G = sigmaT^4 where alpha is albedo, S0 is a constant solar radiative flux (units W/m^2), T is temp in K, and sigma is a constant. The two sides of the equation both have units W/m^2. In the first equation e is 'emissivity' which is unitless and is the ratio of energy radiated by a particular material to energy radiated by a black body at the same temperature. I think of it as an 'underpants factor'. You have a black body throbbing with radiation, which will cool unless you keep it warm. So you put some underpants on it, to keep the cold out, i.e. stop it radiating so much. Hence CO2 and water vapour are like thermal underwear to keep the earth warm (if e is 100%, the temperature is about -18 deg C, for if you solve for e with current temperature, assume 15 deg C, you find e is about 60%). I am assuming e is constant whatever the temperature for exactly the same material, is that correct? In reality e will change as the material of the atmosphere changes (more CO2, or more vapour). In the second equation G is a number, units also W/m^2, which is a measure of the influence a factor has in altering the balance of incoming and outgoing energy in the Earth-atmosphere system. If you solve for G for 15 deg C, you get about 150 W/m^2. My puzzle is whether G is also constant, if for other reasons (e.g. change in solar radiation, change in albedo) the temperature changes. Intuitively it won't be constant. Why represent it this way? Apologise if I have misunderstood, and please correct any mistakes (I am quite new to this, but it is interesting). Again, I am not trying to do any research, just finding out some facts that could be put into layman's language and hopefully into the article. I think thermal underwear is a better analogy than greenhouses, e.g. HistorianofScience (talk) 11:52, 10 January 2010 (UTC) I really don't think all this talk of underwear and throbbing bodies is appropriate. Please keep such impulses to yourself. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 19:24, 10 January 2010 (UTC) You are the Walrus and you talk about throbbing bodies? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 19:28, 10 January 2010 (UTC) My personal preference is for exploding underpants, but they banned them :-( William M. Connolley (talk) 19:31, 10 January 2010 (UTC) Actually it was Long Johns I was looking for but couldn't find the category until now. Anyway I prefer the leather ones. Seriously, can anyone answer my question above ? HistorianofScience (talk) 19:37, 10 January 2010 (UTC) I think you're looking for the one-sentence summary of the greenhouse effect, which is the earth is warmer with an atmosphere, because it receives heat from both the sun and the atmosphere. Your G, above, is the heat from the atmosphere. Put that way, it becomes obvious that G is not contstant, in time (long or short term) or space William M. Connolley (talk) 20:15, 10 January 2010 (UTC) Thanks for the explanation but I'm still not sure I understand. Suppose we turned off the sun like an electric light. Then the earth no longer receives heat from the sun. Does it still receive heat from the atmosphere? Until the atmosphere cools down, yes. Then no William M. Connolley (talk) 20:41, 10 January 2010 (UTC) Surely not. Isn't the correct explanation that the atmosphere is acting like a blanket around the earth, preventing it from cooling as fast as a black body would? No. You need to read what I wrote and understand it. Until you do, you will get nowhere William M. Connolley (talk) 20:41, 10 January 2010 (UTC) So it's not heating the earth, it's preventing it from cooling as fast as it would in the black body case. No William M. Connolley (talk) 20:41, 10 January 2010 (UTC) And the heat energy it is losing should be identical, at the instant the sun turns off, to what it was receiving from the sun. If that is correct, G is the difference between the W/m^2 that the black body would emit, and the W/m^2 actually emitted. No? HistorianofScience (talk) 20:35, 10 January 2010 (UTC) As a very very broad-brush approximation, the atmosphere receives no heat directly from the sun, since it is transparent to SW. The atmosphere is heated by LW from the earth (which itself, of course, is ultimately sourced from SW from the sun absorbed at the earth's sfc. Can you cope with maths? If you can, this is easily written down - indeed it is somewhere, I only need to point you at it William M. Connolley (talk) 20:41, 10 January 2010 (UTC) I can cope with maths. HistorianofScience (talk) 20:46, 10 January 2010 (UTC) Would it be more like those rude transparent underpants then? [9] HistorianofScience (talk) 20:50, 10 January 2010 (UTC) Fine. Writing it all out is quicker than finding it, so... simplifying, the sun shines 4S units on the uniform earth (and since the area of a circle is 1/4 the area of a corresponding sphere the 4 drops out), which is a black body (forget albedo for the moment, it makes no real difference). The atmosphere is transparent to SW, and can be considered as a single layer not in conductive contact with the surface. There is no diurnal cycle, all is averaged out, all is in equilibrium. So at the sfc (with atmosphere) we have the following equation: S + G = rT^4 (the surface is black, captures all solar SW and transforms it into LW which it re-radiates) and G is the radiation from the atmosphere. Meanwhile, in the atmosphere, 2G = rT^4 (the atmospheric layer is totally opaque to the surface LW, is itself isothermal, and being a layer radiates both up and downwards). As it happens G = r(T_a)^4 but we don't care about that for tihs analysis. Hence, S + G = 2G, hence S = G, hence T_1 = (2S/r)^0.25. Meanwhile, in the absence of the atmosphere, we clearly would have T_2 = (S/r)^0.25. T_1 > T_2 (by a factor of 2^0.25) and (T_1 - T_2) is the greenhouse effect. William M. Connolley (talk) 21:02, 10 January 2010 (UTC) Also, this [10] and the linked [11] also refers, but is harder William M. Connolley (talk) 21:12, 10 January 2010 (UTC) Thanks (appreciated). How do you get from S + G = rT^4 to 2G = rT^4 without the assumption that S=G (which you later derive). The intervening bracketed "the atmospheric layer is totally opaque to the surface LW, is itself isothermal, and being a layer radiates both up and downwards). " seems like an explanation, but I didn't understand it. The atmospheric layer absorbs all the surface LW, which is the rT^4. It is in equilibrium. It radiates , equally, upwards and downwards, G. So it gains rT^4 and loses 2G, so those two are equal William M. Connolley (talk) 22:05, 10 January 2010 (UTC) If the earth receives all the SW, then reflects it back to the layer, why do you say earlier that the layer heats the earth? Why isn't it the other way round. No, it doesn't reflect the SW - it is assumed black. It absorbs all the SW and re-radiates it as LW. Yes, "the earth heats the atmosphere" can also be regarded as true William M. Connolley (talk) 22:05, 10 January 2010 (UTC) Thanks for taking the time. HistorianofScience (talk) 21:51, 10 January 2010 (UTC)

Blast from the past

Not to creep you out, but I was looking through old RfAs and I found this, from your second, and succesful, RfA. To the question of: How do you see Wikipedia in 2010 ?

OK, for what its worth, here is the rest: I see wikipedia continuing its growth and influence. The problems of scaling will continue: how to smoothly adapt current practices to a larger community. At the moment this appears to be working mostly OK. Problems exist with the gap between arbcomm level and admin level: I expect this to have to be bridged/changed someway well before 2010. I very much hope more experts - from my area of interests, particularly scientists - will contribute: at the moment all too few do. To make this work, we will have to find some way to welcome and encourage them and their contributions without damaging the wiki ethos. This isn't working terribly well at the moment. I predict that wiki will still be a benevolent dictatorship in 2010 - the problems of transition to full user sovereignty are not worth solving at this stage. William M. Connolley 20:36, 8 January 2006 (UTC).

Thought you'd be amused. Shadowjams (talk) 07:02, 12 January 2010 (UTC)

Hmm yes. "Prediction is hard, especially of the future" as they say William M. Connolley (talk) 08:25, 12 January 2010 (UTC)

Ha. So they say. I'm really good at the past prediction part though. Shadowjams (talk) 08:49, 12 January 2010 (UTC)

More thermals

All at Idealized greenhouse model it seems

Thanks for your explanation which I am afraid I still don't really follow. I don't see how 'the earth heats the atmosphere' and 'the atmosphere heats the earth' can both be true. If it is true that none of the SW affects the atmosphere and that the earth reflects LW as a result, then the earth is the cause of the warming. Indeed couldn't we ignore the sun entirely, turn it off and install a large amount of patio heaters all round the earth pointing upwards at the sky: this would have the same effect. I didn't understand the both directions stuff "It [the atmosphere] radiates , equally, upwards and downwards". Maybe it does, but, unless there is a net outflow of LW heat energy from the earth to balance the SW coming in, the temperature of the earth will not be at equilibrium. A net flow can only be in one direction, by definition. The net outflow from the earth must be exactly balanced by the outflow at the edge of the atmosphere, otherwise the atmosphere would continue heat up. The atmosphere is hotter than the earth's surface because the outflow from the atmosphere has to occur at a higher temperature than the same outflow from the earth. So, the earth is the 'efficient cause' of the heating of the atmosphere, surely. HistorianofScience (talk) 20:05, 12 January 2010 (UTC) You've dropped down into words (some of which are wrong: as I've said before, Earth doesn't reflect LW. It is black in LW). It is clearer if you use maths. Or pix, perhaps. Lets try: | G ^ V Solar input. (4S ->) S | ---------------------------- Atmosphere. Emits G, up and down, thermal radiation. Absorbs S+G. ---------------------------- | | | V Solar straight through - atmos transparent, still S G V ^ S+G | ----------------------------- Sfc. Abs S(SW)+G(LW). Thus emits (S+G)(LW). Thus S+G = rT^4 Clear now? William M. Connolley (talk) 20:13, 12 January 2010 (UTC) Sorry, apart from the bit about not reflecting LW (that seemed picky, unless I misunderstood it), which of my claims was wrong? I said that the net outflow from earth to atmosphere has to be upwards. And that this outflow has to be exactly equal to the outflow from the atmosphere into space. Your diagram is incomprehensible. And what about Greenhouse effect where it says "Radiation is emitted both upward, with part escaping to space, and downward toward Earth's surface, making our life on earth possible." This is entirely wrong isn't it? It gives the impression that we are safe because only part of the radiation escapes to space, but the rest is trapped behind & keeps us snug and warm. The reality is that the net outflow from the earth has to be exactly balanced by the outflow at the edge of the atmosphere into space. Otherwise the atmosphere would keep on heating up until equilibrium was restored. HistorianofScience (talk) 20:31, 12 January 2010 (UTC) [edit] The unclearness of the diagram is the omission of the causality. You have the atmosphere radiating G downwards, e.g. Yes but where does the G come from? If we were to start with turning on the sun like a switch, at that instant there would be no G from the atmosphere. In which case the first thing to hit the earth would be S. Then earth would emit (not reflect) S. With no G. HistorianofScience (talk) 20:43, 12 January 2010 (UTC) Like I say, you need the maths and the pix, not the words. The diagram is a steady state. We can re-draw it, if you like, for an Earth at 0K above which the sun has just been turned on: | 0 ^ V Solar input. (4S ->) S | ---------------------------- Atmosphere. At 0K. Doesn't radiate. ---------------------------- | | | V Solar straight through - atmos transparent, still S 0 V ^ 0 | ----------------------------- Sfc. Abs S(SW)+0(LW). At 0K. Doesn't radiate. So now in this pix you see that the atmos is still in equilibrium, at 0K, but the Earth isn't: It is absorbing S but radiating nothing. So it will warm up, yes? So after a bit we get something like this: | 0 ^ V Solar input. (4S ->) S | ---------------------------- Atmosphere. At 0K. Doesn't radiate. ---------------------------- | | | V Solar straight through - atmos transparent, still S 0 V ^ G_T | ----------------------------- Sfc. Abs S(SW)+0(LW). Has warmed up somewhat, to T. Emits rT^4, call this G_T. So now the sfc has warmed up somewhat, so it is emitting G_T in the LW. Now the atmosphere isn't in balance: it is absorbing G_T but emitting nothing, since it is at 0K. So it will warm up. So it will start emitting downwards an warm further. And eventually we end up with the equilibrium solution William M. Connolley (talk) 21:47, 12 January 2010 (UTC)

Service award update

Hello, William M. Connolley! The requirements for the service awards have been updated, and you may no longer be eligible for the award you currently display. Don't worry! Since you have already earned your award, you are free to keep displaying it. However, you may also wish to update to the current system. Sorry for any inconvenience. — the Man in Question (in question) 10:21, 14 January 2010 (UTC)

Argh, I hate it when these things change :-( Oh well, I'll see if the new one looks any prettier than the old :-) William M. Connolley (talk) 12:59, 14 January 2010 (UTC)

Arbcomm inanity

If anyone is watching this page :-) and is interested in watching insanity in action (and who isn't) then Wikipedia:Arbitration/Requests/Clarification#Motions is your page William M. Connolley (talk) 17:12, 19 January 2010 (UTC)

Topic Necromancy

If you remember a few months ago I asked you about the confidence intervals on climate history and climatology in general. I found the recent [12] to be particularly interesting in that regard. The phrasing of error bounds seemed a little too complicated - but that was probably to prevent the "there is a 10% chance that 2005 was colder than 1998" headline. Incidentally in finance that would be considered a poor signal, but we have the advantage of a simpler data set and more degrees of freedom to use. Ignignot (talk) 18:32, 19 January 2010 (UTC)

Hmm, OK, so which bit of that long post is interesting? I didn't read it all since it seemed to be mostly about what I think I know already :-) William M. Connolley (talk) 22:45, 19 January 2010 (UTC)

Oh, just the standard deviation in the temperature measurements. The two questions I end up asking about any number or statement about numbers is: 1) how much is it (warmer/cooler in this case) and 2) how sure are you? The second one is just as important (and sometimes more) than the first one. For 90%, I'd say that's pretty sure. To refresh the previous discussion, the question I was interested in was how sure are we when comparing recent years and hundreds of years ago. It could be more or less than 90% - I'm certainly not saying this is an upper bound - but this is almost exactly the format I was looking for. To me, the temperature and effect of CO2 pre-industrial revolution has a lot of weight, because all of those years are like a lever acting on my expectations of the future. The more sure I am about bigger differences relative to "normal", the more certain I am about where we're going. Just thought you would be interested since you said you didn't know of many papers examining the confidence in historical estimates. Ignignot (talk) 21:40, 20 January 2010 (UTC)

Ah, but then you have to be careful what SD you're looking at. If you're looking at +/- on temperature trends, is that uncertainty in the measurements, the statistical uncertainty on the trend fitting, or both? William M. Connolley (talk) 22:01, 20 January 2010 (UTC)

Yeah, I know. More precisely I was interested in the uncertainty on the explanatory variables involved in the temperature model - one of which would be the sensitivity to CO2, probably among solar variation, albedo, previous temperature, geothermal heat, etc. I was kind of relieved to see something about climate change that didn't involve the endless back and forth and just focused on some science I guess. Ignignot (talk) 22:07, 20 January 2010 (UTC)

Just curious

[13] did Bush really get to choose his chairman for the IPCC? --BozMo talk 13:57, 23 January 2010 (UTC)

Yep. Basically correct. [14][15][16] --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 14:52, 23 January 2010 (UTC)

Watson was too strong. Bush wanted someone far weaker, and selling someone from India to make the IPCC more "multinational" was easy. IPCC science is, obviously enough, dominated by US / EU; there is politicking going on (as I recall, the vice-chair is a Russian, despite being a non-entity) William M. Connolley (talk) 14:56, 23 January 2010 (UTC)

Some help with links would be appreciated

I see that you're (still) neck deep in "The Dramaz!", but when you get a chance I'd appreciate it if yourself or someone you know could take a look at Eric Rignot and try to straighten out the climatology related redlinks there. Don't worry about the link to Lew Allen Director's Award, I'll take care of that myself eventually (unless someone else wants to write a little article about the award. Don't let me stop you!). Thanks!
— V = I * R (talk to Ohms law) 15:25, 26 January 2010 (UTC)

OK. By golly, but that is an awful photo! William M. Connolley (talk) 15:49, 26 January 2010 (UTC)

Done a bit, others have too. You might want to pay attention to the regrettable possibility of it being a copyvio, mind William M. Connolley (talk) 19:57, 26 January 2010 (UTC)

Thanks for the assist, I appreciate it.
— V = I * R (talk to Ohms law) 10:23, 27 January 2010 (UTC)

CRU hack page

Although I am in complete agreement with you over this edit of yours, I think that it is important you present a case for such edits at the talk page first and then seek a consensus for removal. Bold changes to that article simply don't work in the current environment (no pun intended), and they just get reverted. -- Scjessey (talk) 11:41, 27 January 2010 (UTC)

On refactoring and a higher standard of civility

Following Wikipedia:General sanctions/Climate change probation/Requests for enforcement#William M. Connolley refactoring and interjecting his comments in those of others and engaging in antagonistic attacks on fellow editors:

User:William M. Connolley is required to refrain until 2010-07-27 from editing others' talkpage posts in pages subject to this probation even in cases where the talk page guidelines would otherwise indicate that it could or should be done; he is further warned to refrain from using septic and similar derogatory terms, and to promptly refactor any unintentional typos.

The area of probation is to be interpreted to include anywhere that a topic related to or a dispute stemming from climate change is being discussed, including but not limited to articletalk, usertalk, and WP and WT namespaces. Editing others' posts explicitly includes adding {{cot}}, {{discussion top}}, and similar templates used to close discussions; an exception is made for archiving discussions which have received no posts for at least one week. Your right to point out cases where refactoring should occur is in no wise restricted. Please be careful when throwing around terms that might be interpreted to refer to your fellow volunteers - even if a subtle dig falls within the letter of WP:Civility, it can still sting and contribute to the level of dysfunction at those pages. - 2/0 (cont.) 21:33, 27 January 2010 (UTC)

This is silly and a victory for the yahoo's; unfortunately you've succumbed to the mob. Ah well William M. Connolley (talk) 21:48, 27 January 2010 (UTC)

That would be "yahoos". Shame on you for misusing the apostrophe. -- Scjessey (talk) 21:51, 27 January 2010 (UTC)

I share WMC's impatience with, er, some of his esteemed fellow editors. While it's refreshingly honest to see yahoos referred to as yahoos, given the realities of Wikipedia (i.e., conduct takes precedent over content) you're handing them ammunition to use against you. This lets them turn the issue to your behavior instead of accountability for their own actions. In short you don't have to respect liars and disruptors, you just have to pretend to. It sucks that the place forces us to dissimulate like that but it's the reality of Wikipedia. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 05:27, 28 January 2010 (UTC)

Boris: alas I lack your patience with the idiots, though I can admire it. Scj: I've struck the shameful apostrophe William M. Connolley (talk) 09:10, 28 January 2010 (UTC)

There's no "patience" about it, simply cold-blooded tactics. For example there almost certainly will be increasing attempts to provoke you (as Cla68 and others have done). By taking the high road and not responding in kind you shine the light on the provocateurs instead of yourself. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 02:01, 29 January 2010 (UTC)

War is peace. Awickert (talk) 06:35, 29 January 2010 (UTC)

And hence we were always at peace with Eastasia! --Stephan Schulz (talk) 23:14, 29 January 2010 (UTC)

Climatic_Research_Unit_hacking_incident

[17] You have now removed this section three times without consensus, Stop. Further disruption will lead back to the Rfs page. --mark nutley (talk) 19:46, 28 January 2010 (UTC)

Nope. It is entirely clear that section is invalid, and that there is no consesnus for its inclusion William M. Connolley (talk) 19:48, 28 January 2010 (UTC)

It is obvious to me that it is invalid (there is no code anywhere without bugs!) but you might get in trouble for this one anyway because I think the only RS we have on the subject just got it wrong. Ignignot (talk) 20:01, 28 January 2010 (UTC)

We don't have any RS's for the code being wrong. Newsnight isn't an RS for anything but politics, and not absolute for that either William M. Connolley (talk) 20:03, 28 January 2010 (UTC)

If we accept parity of sources, Newsnight is flat out contradicted by an expert opinion. There's clearly a question about the code and readme files, but no reliable sources I've found have given them good quality coverage. The two poor sources at least indicate that there's an issue, but I agree that it's not very informative. All adds to the stress, which isn't good. Best to leave it alone, and ideally hunt for good coverage of the issue. . . dave souza, talk 20:34, 28 January 2010 (UTC)

There will be no coverage, because there is no issue. Newsnight made a stupid mistake; everyone else has forgotten it William M. Connolley (talk) 20:43, 28 January 2010 (UTC)

BBC News is sticking by their story. It is NOT our place as Wikipedia editors to say that reliable sources are wrong. A Quest For Knowledge (talk) 17:35, 29 January 2010 (UTC)

It is our place to evaluate sources, and a one-off news programme highlighting a rather sensational and one sided view of some stolen information doesn't cut it as a science source. It's questionable if it's notable as controversy outside the blogosphere, and there are clearly aspects of this issue it doesn't cover. Better sourcing needed. . . dave souza, talk 17:52, 29 January 2010 (UTC)

Code fragments found

Just thouht you might be interested in this news item about code fragments being found. It came to my attention as it was next to this story which has a pretty decent subheading. I don't have access to more than the abstract, doubtless this will lead to interesting discussions. Perhaps a bit offtopic at the moment, but something to look forward to. . . dave souza, talk 17:59, 29 January 2010 (UTC)

Re: the water vapor, email me and you will get a PDF. (Re: Roman law - very cool.) Awickert (talk) 18:06, 29 January 2010 (UTC)

was due to an increase in water vapour in the high atmosphere - odd, the version I heard was stratospheric *drying*. Yes, pdf please William M. Connolley (talk) 18:09, 29 January 2010 (UTC)

From my limited understanding, the point is increase = warmer climate, subsequent drying = recent lack of warming predicted by some models, outcome possible solution to puzzle and improved modelling. All very interesting. . . dave souza, talk 19:18, 29 January 2010 (UTC)

Apologies to all: my subscription doesn't work until it appears in print (e.g., until it stops being a "Science Express" article). Shoot. Sorry. You'll all get it once I can access it. I will send emails to friends at other institutions and see if they can get it though. Awickert (talk) 19:47, 29 January 2010 (UTC)

Prof.rick

I am having problems with a maniacally aggressive editor named Prof.rick. You may remember him from when you suspended him for the 3rr rule with regard to the article on Richard Kastle. You may remember this edit of his. [18] Today, he deleted the same article and replaced it with vandalism. [19] I have caught him spamming numerous articles in a systematic fashion. [20] I had to provide a link to his talk page history, because he edits comments off his talk page. Check the edit history. He flagrantly inserts false information into articles and tries to intimidate editors who ask for verification. The same articles that contain spam that promotes pianostudioone.ca also contain propaganda that promotes the same internet teaching business. Check the edits on this article he created on Jonah Cristall-Clark, a former student of pianostudioone.ca. He made up a fake record label and a tour of Europe for this performer who had only one piece of trivial coverage as a member of a teenage band. The talk page explains the history. [21] Perhaps you can help. Juri Koll (talk) 22:56, 30 January 2010 (UTC)

I think you're mistaking me for an admin, alas no more - see the flag at the top. But you *have* brought it to the attention of various others :-) William M. Connolley (talk) 14:23, 31 January 2010 (UTC)