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2004 Canadian federal election

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A Canadian federal election (more formally, the 38th general election) will be held on June 28 2004.

On May 23, Governor General Adrienne Clarkson, on the advice of Prime Minister Paul Martin, ordered the dissolution of the House of Commons (the lower house of Parliament). Following a 36 day campaign, Canadian voters will elect 308 new MPs to create the 38th Parliament. If the currently governing Liberal Party of Canada does not win a majority of seats, Martin may resign and the Governor General would then invite the leader of a different party to form a new government. It is also possible, though, for the prime minister to continue governing in a minority government, or through an alliance with another party, a coalition government.

All the major national parties (except the Bloc Quebecois) will run under different leaders in this next election than the last, held in 2000. This election will also mark the debut of the new Conservative Party of Canada and Progressive Canadian Party.

At one point most pundits had expected an election in the late spring, but the emergence of issues such as the inquiry into the sponsorship scandal likely delayed the call. Although the campaign was initially widely expected to be a relatively facile romp for Martin to a fourth consecutive Liberal majority government, many are now predicting a far more competitive election.

Results

(This section presently includes only current information)

National

Party Party Leader Seats Popular Vote
Before After # %
Liberal Party of Canada Paul Martin 168      
Conservative Party of Canada Stephen Harper 73      
Bloc Québécois Gilles Duceppe 33      
New Democratic Party Jack Layton 14      
Green Party of Canada Jim Harris 0      
Canadian Action Party Connie Fogal 0      
Christian Heritage Party of Canada Ron Gray 0      
Communist Party of Canada Miguel Figueroa 0      
Marijuana Party of Canada Marc-Boris St-Maurice 0      
Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada Sandra L. Smith 0      
Progressive Canadian Party Ernie Schreiber 0      
Independent 9      
Vacant 4 308  
  301
The below parties are not yet registered with Elections Canada but may be recogized before the election.
Cosmopolitan Party of Canada Raymond Samuels  
Direct Access Democracy Canada John Oprea  
Libertarian Party of Canada Jean-Serge Brisson  
Source: http://www.elections.ca
Other elections: 1988 1993 1997 2000 2004
Canadian federal elections

Province by Province breakdown

(presently denotes current seats)

Party Name BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PE NL NU NT YK Total
Liberal Party Seats: 6 2 2 4 95 37 6 5 4 4 1 1 1 168
Pop Vote (%):                            
Conservative Party Seats: 25 23 8 5 4   2 3   3       73
Pop Vote (%):                            
Bloc Québécois Seats (%):           33               33
Pop Vote (%):                            
New Democratic Party Seats: 2   2 4 2   1 3           14
Pop Vote (%):                            
Green Party Seats (%):                            
Pop Vote (%):                            
Canadian Action Party Seats (%):                            
Pop Vote (%):                            
Christian Heritage Party Seats (%):                            
Pop Vote (%):                            
Communist Party Seats (%):                            
Pop Vote (%):                            
Marijuana Party Seats (%):                            
Pop Vote (%):                            
Marxist-Leninist Party Seats (%):                            
Pop Vote (%):                            
Progressive Canadian Party Seats (%):                            
Pop Vote (%):                            
Other Seats (%): 1 1 2     4 1             9
Pop Vote (%):                            

Seat by Seat breakdown

Notes

Major Parties

The following parties currently hold seats in the House of Commons and will be the most closely watched during the election. Their leaders, with the exception of Layton, all sit in the House.

Liberal Party Paul Martin
Conservative Party Stephen Harper
Bloc Québécois Gilles Duceppe
NDP Jack Layton

Liberal Party of Canada

Liberals
Liberals

Until the sponsorship scandal, most pundits were predicting that new Prime Minister Paul Martin would lead the Liberals to a fourth majority government, possibly setting a record for number of seats won. However, polls released immediately after it broke out showed Liberal support down as much as 10% nationwide, with greater declines in its heartland of Québec and Ontario. Although there has been some recovery in Ontario and polls in Atlantic Canada remain strong, hopes of making unprecedended gains in the West have faded. Popularity of provincial Liberal parties may also have an effect on federal Liberal fortunes. In Ontario, for instance, the provincial Liberal government introduced an unpopular budget the week of the expected election call, and their federal counterparts have since fallen into a statistical dead heat with the Conservatives in polls there. A majority government, thought to be a sure thing as late as February 2004, now appears in doubt.

See also: 2004 Liberal Party of Canada infighting

Conservative Party of Canada

CPC
CPC

In the final months of 2003, the Progressive Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance were running a distant third and fourth, respectively, in public opinion polls.

Many pundits predicted that the combination of the popular and fiscally conservative Martin, along with continued vote-splitting on the right, could have led to the almost total annihilation of the Progressive Conservatives and Canadian Alliance. This fear has prompted those two parties to form a united Conservative Party of Canada, which was approved by the Canadian Alliance on December 5, 2003 and by the Progressive Conservatives on December 6, 2003.

The new Conservative Party has pulled ahead of the NDP in the most recent polls, although its support has been well below the combined support that the Progressive Conservatives and the Alliance had as separate parties. On March 20 the Conservatives elected Stephen Harper as its new leader.

The Conservatives gained more ground in polls taken since Harper became leader, but still trail the Liberals by a comfortable margin. Party supporters are hoping that Harper can respond to Liberal attacks on Harper's record, and that anger over the sponsorship scandal can translate to success at the polls. The party's support is heavily concentrated in the west and portions of Atlantic Canada, but promising poll numbers in Ontario have Conservatives hoping for a breakthrough in that province.

New Democratic Party

NDP
NDP

Prior to the announcement of the union of the right-of-centre parties, some were predicting an NDP official opposition, with the NDP polling ahead of both right-of-centre parties. A new leader (Jack Layton) and clear social democratic policies may revitalize the NDP. Polls suggest that the NDP has returned to the 18% to 20% level of support it enjoyed in the 1984 Canadian election and 1988 Canadian election.

Bloc Québécois

The Bloc
The Bloc

The Bloc Québécois (BQ) continued to slide in the polls in 2003 after the election of the strongly federalist Quebec Liberal Party under Jean Charest and during the long run-up to Paul Martin becoming leader of the federal Liberals. Support for sovereignty also continued to slide. However the Charest government rapidly became quite unpopular, and this, combined with the federal sponsorship scandal, led to a strong resurgence of the BQ, which moved up to 10 percentage points ahead of the federal Liberals in the polls in Québec as of February and March 2004.

Minor Parties

The following parties do not currently hold seats in the House of Commons, and will likely receive considerably less media attention throughout the election than their larger competitors. The Greens plan on running candidates in all 308 ridings; the other parties may not be capable of matching this number.

Green Party Jim Harris
Progressive Canadian Party Ernie Schreiber
Christian Heritage Party Ron Gray
Canadian Action Party Connie Fogal
Communist Party Miguel Figueroa
Marxist-Leninist Party Sandra L. Smith
Marijuana Party Marc-Boris St-Maurice

Issues

Important issues in the upcoming election:

  • Health care: all parties support Canada's government-administered health care system but acknowledge that improvements must be made to meet new demographic challenges and to reduce long wait times.
  • Sponsorship scandal: has badly hurt the Liberals in the polls recently and the theme of widespread corruption will be used by all opposition parties, especially the Bloc.
  • Taxation: for the Conservatives greatly lowering taxes will be a central issue. The Liberals and NDP oppose large tax cuts and argue that money should instead be sent to improve social programs.
  • Same-sex marriage: the Bloc Quebecois and NDP are strongly for same sex marriage. The Liberals had introduced legislation to make it legal, but their caucus is publically divided on the issue. The overwhelming majority of Conservative candidates are opposed; the party recently declared its official stance was for the issue to be resolved by a free vote in the Commons.
  • National Missile Defence: the Bush administration wants Canada to join the missile shield. The Conservatives strongly support such a plan while the Bloc and NDP oppose it. Although the Liberals have recently reiterated past opposition to the weaponization of space, they do not have an expressed opinion on the shield and many pundits believe they are merely waiting until after the election to join the program.
  • 2003 invasion of Iraq: the Conservatives strongly supported joining the American war effort, the other parties opposed it. With increasing difficulties in Iraq and Canadian popular opinion still largely opposed, the other parties may use the issue to attack Harper and his party.
  • Homelessness: Canada has one of the highest per capita rates of homelessness in the developed world, which critics allege is largely due to the Liberals failure to build subsided housing over their eleven years in power.
  • Gun registry: Opposed by many rural Canadians, the gun registry has also seen huge cost overruns but remains popular in most of urban Canada. The Conservatives strongly oppose it, the other parties support it.
  • Marijuana: The Liberals have introduced measures to decriminalize possession of small quantities of marijuana, a move strongly opposed by the Conservatives but supported by the other opposition parties.
  • Parliamentary Reform: Conservatives have long accused the Liberals of perpetuating undemocratic traditions in parliament, limiting the powers of MPs. Martin has called for some reform, but not to the satisfaction of the Conservatives. The NDP promises to bring in proportional representation voting.
  • Toronto waterfront: every election the Liberals have promised to inject large amount soft money into the waterfront, after every election they have failed to deliver. Will be a central issue in three waterfront ridings.

Timeline

2004

After the election call

  • May 30
    • Liberals: In a CTV interview, former Newfoundland and Labrador premier Brian Tobin makes the first admission by a top Liberal that the party is expecting to win a minority government. Martin takes his first day off from the campaign.
    • Conservatives: Harper also takes the day off.
  • May 29
  • May 28
  • May 27
    • Liberals: Finance Minister Ralph Goodale indicates that the Liberals will soon announce plans to for "significant" increases in spending on both Defence and Foreign Aid.
    • Conservatives: Bilingualism critic Scott Reid resigns from his post after he made comments that his party would overhaul the nation's policy on bilingualism.
    • NDP: Jack Layton makes controversial comments on homelessness, blaming Paul Martin for the deaths of homeless people in Toronto.
    • Greens: Following an announcement from The Broadcaster's Consortium (composed of CBC, Radio-Canada, CTV, Global and TVA) that only the four major parties would participate in the national televised leader's debates, Green Party leader Jim Harris announces he is considering legal action against the consortium.
  • May 26
    • Conservatives: Former Mulroney cabinet minister John Crosbie announces he is "seriously considering" running in the Avalon riding in Newfoundland.
    • NDP: The NDP introduces its election platform, including $29 billion for health care, an inheritance tax, and a repeal of terrorism laws.
    • BQ: Gilles Duceppe angrily rejects allegations raised by Health Minister Pierre Pettigrew that the Bloc "likes to take pleasure in its homogeneity" and does not represent multicultural Quebec.
  • May 25
    • Liberals: Paul Martin, speaking in Cobourg, Ontario, announces a $9-billion initiative to improve health care which would include money for home care, increased funding for health care, the reduction of hospital waiting lists and the introduction of a pharmicare plan for seniors.
    • Conservatives: Harper speaks in Fredericton where he gets the endorsement of New Brunswick premier Bernard Lord.
    • NDP: Layton, in Saskatoon, also denounces Martin's health care plan, pointing to his cutting of health care funding while finance minister.
    • BQ: Duceppe, in Drummondville, complains that Martin's plan does not involve enough money for the provinces.
  • May 24
    • Liberals: Paul Martin in New Brunswick, tells Canadians "This election will define the kind of country Canadians want."
    • Conservatives: The Conservatives unveil their television ads
    • NDP: Leader Jack Layton launches his eight campaign promisses to Canadians in Vancouver.
    • BQ: The Bloc announce they will be running 17 candidates who are less than 25 years of age in order to gain the youth vote.

Lead up to the election call

Olivia Chow
Olivia Chow
Paul Martin
Paul Martin
Elsie Wayne
Elsie Wayne
Belinda Stronach
Belinda Stronach

2003

Ed Broadbent
Ed Broadbent
Shelia Copps
Shelia Copps
  • December 9 - Canadian Senators Lowell Murray, Norman Atkins and William Doody are the first senators to decide not join the new Conservative Party of Canada, choosing to remain in the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada if the Speaker will let them. Also on December 9, Liberal leadership runner-up Sheila Copps refuses Prime Minister-designate Paul Martin's patronage appointment proposal for Copps. She will have to fight to retain her riding, as Canada's ridings have been redrawn, and she now shares it with MP Tony Valeri.
  • December 8 - The Conservative Party of Canada is officially registered with Elections Canada. The party's first interim leader is Senator John Lynch-Staunton, with a formal leadership race scheduled for March 2004. Three Progressive Conservative MPs (Joe Clark, John Herron and André Bachand) announce that they will not sit as members of the new party, but will serve out their terms as Independent Progressive Conservatives.
  • December 6 - The Progressive Conservative Party of Canada votes with a 90% majority in favour of merging with the Canadian Alliance.
  • December 5 - The Canadian Alliance votes with a 96% majority in favour of merging with the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada.
  • December 3 - Member of Parliament Robert Lanctôt announced he was quitting the Bloc Québécois and joining the Liberal Party of Canada saying to the press: "After dreaming about sovereignty for 40 years, I said to myself that dreaming is fine, but at a certain point you have to wake up." Also on December 3, Natural Resources Minister Herb Dhaliwal stated that he was not going to seek re-election.
  • November 28 - Liberal Party of Canada member John Manley announces his retirement from politics.
Stephen Harper
Stephen Harper
Peter McKay
Peter McKay
Jack Layton
Jack Layton

2002

Leadership races of 2003 and 2004

Recent poll numbers

Note: the Bloc Québécois runs candidates only in Québec, so its Canada-wide poll percentage is not very meaningful. Therefore the relevant poll numbers isolated for Québec only are also shown, if available.

  • SES Research nightly tracking poll (2004-May-29) (changes from first day, 2004-May-25, listed in parentheses): Liberal 34% (-7), Conservative 31% (+3), NDP 19% (+1), BQ 12% (+1), Green 3% (even)
  • Ekos poll (2004-May-30): Liberal 38%, Conservative 30%, NDP 18%, BQ 11%
  • Ipsos-Reid poll (2004-May-22): Liberal 35%, Conservative 26%, NDP 18%, BQ 12%
    • Quebec only: BQ 50%, Liberal 28%, NDP 8%, Conservative 7%
  • COMPAS poll (2004-May-15 to 2004-May-19): Liberal 39%, Conservative 31%, NDP 17%, BQ 11%
    • Québec only: BQ 43%, Liberal 40%, NDP 9%, Conservative 7%
  • Ipsos-Reid poll (2004-May-7): Liberal 38%, Conservative 26%, NDP 16%, BQ 10%
    • Québec only: BQ 41%, Liberal 36%
  • Leger Marketing poll (2004-Apr-28): Liberal 38%, Conservative 26%, NDP 17%, BQ 12%, Green 4%
    • Québec only [1]: BQ 46%, Liberal 34%, Conservative 8%, NDP 8%, Green 3%
  • Ipsos-Reid poll (2004-Apr-26 –Apr-28) Liberal 40%, Conservative 23%, NDP 18%, BQ 11%, Green 5%
    • Québec only: BQ 46%, Liberal 33%, Conservative 8%, NDP 8%
  • Environics poll (2004-Mar-29 – 2004-Apr-18): Liberal 39%, Conservative 29%, NDP 19%, BQ 11%
    • Québec only: BQ 45%, Liberal 37%, Conservative 8%, NDP 8%
  • Ipsos-Reid poll (2004-Apr-06 – 2004-Apr-08): Liberal 35%, Conservative 28%, NDP 18%, BQ 10%, Green 5%
    • Québec only: BQ 45%, Liberal 30%, Conservative 11%, NDP 10%
  • Leger Marketing poll (2004-Mar-28): Liberal 38%, Conservative 26%, NDP 16%, BQ 13%
    • Québec only [2]: BQ 45%, Liberal 36%, Conservative 8%, NDP 8%

Source: http://www.canadawebpages.com/pc-polls.asp

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