2006 United States Senate elections
Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 7, 2006, with 33 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate being contested. Senators are elected for six-year terms, and the term of office for those elected in 2006 will be from January 3, 2007 until January 3, 2013. Those Senators who were elected in 2000 (known as "Class 1") will be seeking reelection or retiring in 2006.
The 2006 House election is scheduled for the same date as the Senate election, as well as many state and local elections, including those for 36 state governors.
Major parties
The Senate is currently composed of 55 Republicans, who have been in the majority since 2003, 44 Democrats, and 1 independent (former Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont). Jeffords is retiring and his seat is one of the 33 seats being contested, while another 17 are held by Democrats and 15 are held by Republicans.
To control 51 seats, a majority in the Senate, Democrats would need either a net gain of 6 seats (if independent candidate Bernie Sanders wins Jim Jeffords' seat in Vermont and continues to caucus with the Democrats as he does in the House), or a net gain of 7 seats (if Sanders loses to a Republican). Republicans need to hold only 50 seats after the election to have a majority because the Vice President (currently Republican Dick Cheney) breaks all tie votes in his role as President of the Senate.
To gain a "working majority" of 60 members – the number of votes required to break a filibuster – Republicans would need a net gain of 5 seats. However, more conservative Democrats may also contribute to the "working majority."
Races to watch
It is not clear which seats will have the most competitive races. Incumbent senators have a high rate of re-election, even when their party affiliation is at odds with other political trends of their state. The most competitive races tend to be those where the incumbent has retired or has served only one term.
Additional special elections that are held due to the death or resignation of Senators in the interim would change the party balances listed above.
Retiring Senators
Mark Dayton (D) of Minnesota
Main article : Minnesota U.S. Senate election, 2006
On February 9, 2005, Senator Dayton announced that he would not seek a second term in the Senate. Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy, the presumed GOP nominee, secured major GOP endorsements in early 2005 and will not face any serious challengers. Kennedy has benefited greatly from high-profile Republicans coming to fund raise for him, including Vice President Dick Cheney in July 2005 and President George W. Bush in December 2005.
There are two candidates seeking the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) nomination. The current DFL front runner is Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar. Ford Bell, a veterinarian, philanthropist, and heir to a founder of General Mills, is also running but is significantly behind Klobuchar in polling and fundraising. Bell will rely only on contributions to fund his campaigns and not his personal wealth. Minneapolis attorney Mike Ciresi, who narrowly lost to Dayton in the 2000 DFL primary, announced on Februrary 7, 2006 that he would not seek the seat.
Bill Frist (R) of Tennessee
Main article : Tennessee U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator Bill Frist of Tennessee, the current Majority Leader, has previously promised to leave the Senate when his second term ends in 2006, and is widely considered to have presidential aspirations for 2008. Democratic candidates include Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. and State Senator Rosalind Kurita. Republican candidates include former Reps. Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary, along with Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker. Hilleary currently has a double-digit lead over Bryant and an even larger lead over Corker. Ford is currently trailing all candidates by at least a few points as of a January 2006 poll. Although Tennessee's electoral votes went to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, a majority of the statewide offices are held by Democrats. Tennessee also has more registered Democratic voters than Republican voters and sends more Democrats to the U.S. House of Representatives than Republicans.
Jim Jeffords (I) of Vermont
Main article : Vermont U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont left the Republican Party to become an independent soon after being reelected as a Republican in the 2000 election. On April 20, 2005, he declared he would not seek another term. The Democratic Party is unlikely to run a candidate as several leading members have already endorsed independent and self-described "democratic socialist" Representative Bernie Sanders. A November 2005 poll conducted for WCAX-TV showed Sanders leading the only Republican who has thus far expressed interest in the race --businessman Richard Tarrant -- by nearly 50 percentage points.[1] Governor James "Jim" Douglas and Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie both considered running but ultimately opted out.
Paul Sarbanes (D) of Maryland
Main article : Maryland Congressional election, 2006
Senator Paul Sarbanes announced on March 11, 2005 that he would retire rather than run for re-election in 2006. Sarbanes' seat was previously considered safe, as Maryland is a Democratic-leaning state. Former NAACP president Kweisi Mfume and Rep. Ben Cardin have announced their candidacies for the Democratic nomination. Four other minor Democratic candidates are in the race. Mfume had great difficulty raising funds in the summer of 2005, and this may leave Cardin with a significant advantage.[2] Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele, a Republican, announced his candidacy on October 25, 2005, and is currently the only major contender for the Republican nomination. The Green Party's Kevin Zeese has also launched a campaign for the seat.
Notable Democratic incumbent races
Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut
Main article : Connecticut U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, a Democrat who is mostly liberal on domestic policy, has drawn fire from liberals within his party for his continual support for the foreign policy of President George W. Bush and for statements that he has made in which he has criticized other Democrats for "undermining the President" during a time of war. Liberals are running Ned Lamont against him in an August primary. Should Lamont win, Republicans may look at this race more closely.
Maria Cantwell of Washington
Main article : Washington U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator Maria Cantwell has drawn fire from progressives in Washington for many of her votes including her vote for the Iraq War Resolution, for the confirmation of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and against the attempted filibuster of Samuel Alito. In 2005 she voiced support in Washington State Democratic Party circles for the John Murtha Resolution on removing American armed forces from Iraq. Former Safeco CEO Mike McGavick is the only announced GOP candidate. Cantwell has a double digit lead over McGavick in the polls, leading him 50 to 39 in a December 2005 Rasmussen poll.[3]
Bill Nelson of Florida
Main article : Florida U.S. Senate election, 2006
As the only southern Democrat facing re-election, Senator Bill Nelson of Florida will draw major regional attention to this race. Florida also will elect a new governor in 2006, and the cost of two major campaigns in a large state could require that one of the Republican candidates have a high profile. Rep. Katherine Harris, who served as Secretary of State during the 2000 presidential election, is the presumed favorite in a Republican primary. Current polls show Harris with a big lead in the primaries, but a February 2006 Rasmussen Reports poll shows Nelson leading Harris by 9 points (49%-40%).[4] So far, potential candidates floated to challenge her in the primary include Afghanistan War General Tommy Franks, Lt. Governor Toni Jennings, Congressman Mark Foley, and state House Speaker Allan Bense, though if they jumped into the race, they would be trailing in the polls severly according to an August 2005 poll (Harris 55, Franks 20, Jennings 8, and Foley 6).[5]
Robert Menendez of New Jersey
Main article : New Jersey U.S. Senate election, 2006
Jon Corzine, elected to the Senate in 2000, was elected Governor of New Jersey in 2005. Corzine appointed Rep. Robert Menendez to serve the last year of the Senate term, and Menendez was sworn in to fill Corzine's vacancy on January 18, 2006.[6] Republican State Senator Thomas Kean, Jr. (the son of the former Governor of New Jersey and 9/11 Commission Chairman Thomas Kean) announced on March 25, 2005 that he would run for the U.S. Senate. Menendez had a narrow 39% to 36% lead over Kean in a February 2006 Rasmussen poll, with a suprisingly large 25% still undecided.[7]Menendez's 36% approval rating may also be a sign of vulnerability for the incumbent.[8]
Notable Republican incumbent races
John Ensign of Nevada
Main article : Nevada U.S. Senate election, 2006
John Ensign of Nevada is running for re-election, however recent poll shows he has only a 49% approval rating, which is usually not good for an incumbent going into an election year. The comparatively popular Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman has said he will probably try to get the Democratic nomination.[9] An Ensign-Goodman race would likely be competitive, but Goodman would first have to defeat Jack Carter, son of ex-President Jimmy Carter in the primary election. Carter doesn't have very much name recognition, and is currently trailing Ensign in the polls (33% to 48%). However, Goodman polls very close to Ensign (42.5 to 45, respectively) and within the margin of error. It should be noted that most of Nevada Democrats are in Goodman's Las Vegas, where he won with 86% of the vote the last election, providing a possible advantage in the primary election.
George Allen of Virginia
Main article : Virginia U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator George Allen of Virginia is expected by many to be a possible 2008 presidential candidate, which would almost certainly be harmed if he were to lose (or even have a tough race) for his seat in 2006. Virginia businessman Harris Miller (D) and former Secretary of the Navy James H. Webb are currently seeking the Democratic nomination. Gail Parker, a retired USAF Major and Pentagon budget analyst, has announced her intention to run as the Green Party candidate.
Conrad Burns of Montana
Main article : Montana U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator Conrad Burns of Montana faced a strong challenge from current Governor Brian Schweitzer in 2000, being re-elected by a mere 3% in a state that went for Bush twice by margins of over 20%. This, combined with the increasing strength of the state Democratic party and accusations of ethical issues related to the Jack Abramoff scandal, could make this a competitive race. State auditor John Morrison has filed papers to run for the Democratic nomination, and state senate president Jon Tester has announced his candidacy. A Rasmussen poll from February 2006 shows John Morrison leading Burns 50% to 43%, and Tester and Burns tied at 46% each.
Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island
Main article : Rhode Island U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, perhaps the most liberal Republican in the Senate, will face a primary challenge from conservative Cranston mayor Steve Laffey. Currently, the candidates for the Democratic nomination are Secretary of State Matt Brown, former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, and former businessman Carl Sheeler. Recent polling has put Brown ahead of Whitehouse for the Democratic Party nomination, and slightly ahead of Chafee in the general election. Although Laffey is running as a conservative, he has come under fire from other conservatives for supporting tax increases as Mayor and increasing city spending. It is widely believed that the more liberal Chafee would have an easier time winning in the general election due to his appeal to independent voters.
Mike DeWine of Ohio
Main article : Ohio U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator Mike DeWine of Ohio has low approval ratings and the current Coingate scandal involving the Ohio Republican Party and the unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft could hurt his re-election chances. DeWine could also face a tough primary challenge from several more conservative Republicans, such as William G. Pierce, who are unhappy with his relatively centrist stances including his role as one of the Gang of 14 who intervened to stop a showdown over judicial nominations. Lawyer and Iraq War veteran Paul Hackett, who narrowly lost to Jean Schmidt in the second district on August 2, 2005, said in October 2005 he would seek the Democratic nomination to challenge DeWine. U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown announced his candidacy in October 2005. Hackett withdrew from the race on February 14, 2006. A February 2006 Rasmussen poll shows DeWine ahead of Brown 46% to 37%. [10]
Jon Kyl of Arizona
Main article : Arizona U.S. Senate election, 2006
Wealthy real-estate developer Jim Pederson declared his intention to challenge Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona on September 14, 2005. Pederson served as Arizona Democratic Party Chairman from 2001 to 2005 while spending millions of his own money to help Democrats modernize and to elect Janet Napolitano Governor. Although Arizona voted for Bush in the last two elections, Kyl's approval rating in a recent poll was 46%.[11] A Rasmussen Poll from December 26, 2005 showed Pederson trailing Kyl 50% to 30%.[12]
Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania
Main article : Pennsylvania U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania is a very conservative member of the Senate in a state that went for John Kerry in 2004 by 2.5 percent. In his last election in the year 2000, Santorum received 7,706 more votes than Al Gore, the Democratic candidate for President, who won Pennsylvania by 4 percent. [13] Santorum ran against U.S. Rep. Ron Klink, a pro-life Democrat. Democrats believe that Santorum's seat is extremely vulnerable, and are making it a priority for a pick-up in 2006. Democrat Bob Casey, Jr., Pennsylvania's state treasurer, announced his candidacy on March 5, 2005. Currently, his only primary opponents are college professor Chuck Pennacchio and Alan Sandals. A Casey-Santorum race would feature two pro-life candidates, a rarity in major elections. A Casey victory would also lead to the unusual result of Pennsylvania being represented in the Senate by a pro-life Democrat (Casey) and a pro-choice Republican (Arlen Specter). Pennacchio and Sandals are pro-choice. As of February 2006, Casey enjoys a double-digit lead over Santorum in various polls.
Jim Talent of Missouri
Main article : Missouri U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator Jim Talent of Missouri, who was elected to the four remaining years of this term in a 2002 special election, might face a strong Democratic challenge for his seat. Missouri will not hold an election for governor in 2006, making this the only major statewide race in a traditional battleground state. Talent was first elected by a very slim margin and now has a well-known challenger in Claire McCaskill, Missouri's state auditor and 2004 Democratic gubernatorial candidate. Missouri is considered a "swing" state, but McCaskill carries significant political baggage from her 2004 loss. However, Talent was elected to the Senate after a failed gubernatorial bid, the same position McCaskill is in now. As of February 13, 2006, Talent has opened up a 5 point lead in the polls.[14]
Complete list of Senate contests in 2006
Opinion Polls
Control of both the House and the Senate will be determined by the relatively small number of competitive seats - usually approximately a dozen in the House and less than a half dozen in the Senate. It is the outcome of individual elections which determines partisan control of both bodies and nationwide polls have little effect on such a small subset of individual state elections.
Current "generic ballot" House of Representatives poll numbers can be found at PollingReport.com.