Talk:2006 Atlantic hurricane season

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July

Week 4

98L.INVEST

A new invest in the Bay of Campeche. Chacor 12:29, 23 July 2006 (UTC)

Could Chris be on his way? It looks pretty solid. Kinda reminds me of Bret and Gert of last season. It also developed so fast that it wasn't even caught as an Area of Interest! CrazyC83 16:28, 23 July 2006 (UTC)

GFS doesn't show development, however if it stays over water, this system will be very interesting to watch. -- WmE 16:39, 23 July 2006 (UTC)

Doesn't look too good to be Chris.. BUT, on the other hand.. NHC says that "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO" -Tcwd 22:40, 23 July 2006 (UTC)

Water T in the Bay is 85.3 F and in the GoM is 85.5 to 86.0 F - the energy is there? Simesa 22:50, 23 July 2006 (UTC)

The plane from the previous TWO seems to be canceled, though. —AySz88\^-^ 02:52, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

It has a few days to develop. It should slowly drift North towards TX. -Winter123 03:43, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

This thing hardly even looks like an INVEST anymore. bob rulz 04:00, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

Wow, that's just a mess. I'd be really surprised if this became Chris. -- WmE 13:11, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

The GFDL (as of 18Z 0723) does not develop it. Chacor 13:56, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

(indent reset) There are a couple models that bring it to TS strength [1]. At any rate, I hope it brings some rains to South Texas, we could use it. --Holderca1 14:28, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

NHC thinks it could develop

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND NOAA BUOYS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE RECORDED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE.

jj 15:56, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

It doesn't look so bad now - colder cloud tops. It was all white with tinges of blue early in the morning today (EST), and now all orange with tinges of red today (shouldn't there be actual ° numbers somewhere?). I guess it's probably due to the diurnal cycle? —AySz88\^-^ 16:27, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

Wow, I have to admit that it looks really, really good now. I think it could become Chris now, if the convection persits. -- WmE 17:29, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

doktorb _words^deeds 15:44, 26 July 2006 (UTC)

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS IS NOW CENTERED BETWEEN HOUSTON

AND SAN ANTONIO. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND IS

FAR ENOUGH INLAND THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT

EXPECTED

It looks like this is just going to be a rainmaker, looks very disorganized, and too close to land. --Holderca1 13:52, 25 July 2006 (UTC)

"AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO

BETWEEN TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM IF THE LOW REMAINS OVER WATER"

doktorb _words^deeds 13:58, 25 July 2006 (UTC)

98L has been removed and replaced with 96L. -- RattleMan 14:03, 25 July 2006 (UTC)

NRL gives me 98L. Chacor 14:21, 25 July 2006 (UTC)

I only have 98L as well. --Holderca1 14:25, 25 July 2006 (UTC)

Hmm...I wonder why they did that. I've re-edited the section headers. I've uploaded some pictures showing 96L on NRL just in case. [2] [3] -- RattleMan 14:42, 25 July 2006 (UTC)

TCFA issued, that was surprising, but it continued organizing! -- WmE 17:18, 25 July 2006 (UTC)

Especially surprising consider the center is over land at the moment. --Holderca1 18:01, 25 July 2006 (UTC)

It is a race now, just like that near-Beryl in late June. I'd give it a 60% chance of becoming a depression now. It has a golden but short opportunity. CrazyC83 03:41, 26 July 2006 (UTC)

Looks like it is developing a closed circulation, it is so close to Texas. Irfanfaiz 10:24, 26 July 2006 (UTC)

Doesn't look likely anymore....

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BRING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO THE

LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT

CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

doktorb _words^deeds 11:06, 26 July 2006 (UTC)

That's not it. This is in Texas. íslenska hurikein #12 _(samtal) 12:20, 26 July 2006 (UTC)

Ah whoops... Sorry doktorb _words^deeds 12:25, 26 July 2006 (UTC)

Yeah, it got close but didnt close off a distinct circulation. -Winter123 00:47, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

99L.INVEST

AoI:07W4B: Cape Verde

Powerful wave coming off Africa now. It already looks really good! Could this be the first Cape Verde storm of 2006? (Fortunately, its current latitude would most likely make it a mid-Atlantic fish) CrazyC83 22:20, 26 July 2006 (UTC)

Whoa! I could swear I saw some convection. íslenska hurikein #12 _(samtal) 22:28, 26 July 2006 (UTC)

The is a low pressure with this thign and also u can see turning in the wave--65.2.155.104 22:11, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

So we're expecting a Cat 4 or Cat 5 Chris from this? Irfanfaiz 06:23, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

99L.INVEST (1)

Now up on NRL! -- RattleMan 23:31, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

If they see it happening that far east, development is really possible. CrazyC83 00:18, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

The 5:30 EDT TWO says it's already gotten some organization going:

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

—AySz88\^-^ 00:22, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

I think this could ultimately become a dangerous hurricane next week...this needs to be watched VERY closely. CrazyC83 00:27, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Wow, that blob is actually pretty big... (Loop) - it doesn't look unhealthy at all if it keeps all that convection in the same place. —AySz88\^-^ 00:32, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

(Actually, it's just a result of the kind of projection they used...) —AySz88\^-^ 01:24, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Most of the models are showing a fish storm. However, this early they can't really be relied on. I'd give it a 60% chance of development, and if it does, look out! CrazyC83 00:41, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

You can never be sure if a Cape-Verde system will be a fish-spinner. This one definitely needs to be watched closely, since conditions are gradually becoming more favourable for development. Pobbie Rarr 00:59, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Don't be so sure, I see that it will eventually enter into an area that is unfavorable for development. I have been tracking all three of these waves for the past 48 hours on my computer and I don't think there is too much to be intr=erested in as far as this becoming a dangerous storm. Provided that is moves slow enough and isn't destroyed by wind shear i think it very well could become a strong tropical storm, maybe a minimal hurricane. But, hell, somethin like 48% of all predictions are wrong or off by a little.O-TOWN'S AT 01:29, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

I see some developement coming soon. But I wonder if this may become Chris. My guess is that it has a 50% chance of doing so. Alastor Moody _(talk) 02:03, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Also if you go to nasa.gov, a website shows that hurricane can be prone to develope from Cape Verde. Alastor Moody _(talk) 02:07, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

WOW! I had noticed this yesterday but i just found out that its an invest! It has a very good spin, but its at 8.5N and drifting a bit south of west. That would be a record for the altantic!!! (I think) YOU CAN DO IT! (Yes, I realize the storm can't hear me) From the 10:30 TWO:

"A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS." -Winter123 02:19, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Responding to myself: No, actually Isidore of 1990 formed at 7N. But this will definitely approach that. It looks promising. -Winter123 02:27, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

People, hurricanes are not good. Stop cheering. Chacor 02:57, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Hear, hear. It's not a good thing when these things form. Especially if they become dangerous. Dangerous is "people get killed," not "I like to live dangerously" off a James Bond movie. Sigh. Mike H. I did "That's hot" first! 03:18, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

???? This discussion caught my attention. Hurricanes are not "good" or "not good". They simply are. Weather has been around a lot longer than people. There's nothing wrong with cheering a perfectly normal wonder of nature. So says I. --Elliskev 20:12, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Hello Chris! --Revolución hablar ver 02:50, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Uh...? NRL nor NHC have it yet. Chacor 02:57, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Maybe Revolucion's just expressing his anticipation that this will definitely become Chris? Though, it's been cohesive and CDO-like for aabout 18 hours now.

This far to the east and away from land, I think it's fine or even healthy to appreciate these storms as amazing or incredible or majestic machines of nature and hope to see one; I think one should hope they're just magnificent/beautiful/awesome fish-spinners, though. —AySz88\^-^ 03:39, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Yeah, I agree with all, you might as well be getting ready to fire up the Chris page, no doubt this ting is showing signs of rapid development. However, if it continues on it's forcasted track it will have problems staying alive in the near future depending on how strong it is. O-TOWN'S AT 03:43, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

I don't think we should create it immediately, especially right at the start. Maybe when it starts threatening land. Chacor 03:51, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Maybe but this is a feature people are gonna be interested in, what i mean't is get it ready to launch cause there is a 100% chance (as of right now) that in 12-18 hours we'll be looking at either a strong version of Tropical Depression 3 or a brand new Tropical Storm Chris!O-TOWN'S AT 03:54, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

This thing definitely looks much healthier than it did before. It almost looks like a tropical depression. bob rulz 03:57, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Well, I like WATCHING hurricanes. I do not like seeing the destruction they cause. Katrina Made landfall last year the day before my birthday- Practically every channel was showing Flooding in New Orleans ON MY BIRTHDAY. Not that enjoyable. What WAS enjoyable was watching it blow up in the gulf OVER WATER on the days leading up to my birthday. I'd say this storm has a good chance of becoming a hurricane, and a good chance of being ripped apart by the trough in the West Carribbean/Bahamas. -Winter123 03:58, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

GFDL from 0728/00Z does not develop it anytime soon. Chacor 07:27, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Well, I've found that models often dont pick up on storms unless there is a well defined center. This does not have one... yet. Just a broad one. -Winter123 07:37, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

I'm not trying to be like anybody in particular, but I say this wave (or Chris) may become a big Atlantic storm sooner or later bound to attack anyone in its path. Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody 08:15, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Uh, first of all let me explain my comment. It was just acknowledging that this was likely going to develop into Chris, and I wasn't saying it in a welcoming way. Second of all, to the guy who said that "it is good hurricanes kill people and destroy things, that is what they are designed to do", that is an extremely ridiculous and I must say offensive comment to those who have lost loved ones in hurricanes. It is NOT good they kill people and destroy things (tho the killing part is much worse than the destruction). Also, hurricanes aren't "designed" to do anything, because there is no intelligent force guiding their "actions", this is science not religion. Hurricanes are governed by the laws of nature. --Revolución hablar ver 11:24, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

NOTE: Senseless discussion has been moved here.

That's what I was trying to say. Now let's stop this senseless argument (Are hurricanes bad? Anyone in their right mind would say yes.) before it needs a seprate talk page and let's get back to the subject at hand. The thing looks really good on sattelite imagery and should develop real soon. Although, history tells us that the storm may have to be further north to develop. If it does develope though, would it be the first real "Cape Verde Storm" since Emily?guitarhero777777 15:38, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Well thats an easy question to answer, no. Irene was a Cape Verde hurricane according to its TCR. Personally I'm of the opinion that this discussion of 99L is too off topic in itself, saying "I think it will be Chris" is going too far as that does not matter to the maintenance of this page and WP isnt a discussion forum...--Nilfanion (talk) 15:51, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

TD19 was a Cape Verde storm... íslenska hurikein #12 _(samtal) 16:01, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Um... what? Anyways, This thing is looking real good today... -Winter123 18:28, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

If you're saying what to me, I said what I said because guitarhero7... that Emily was the most recent Cape Verde Storm (CVS). But there was also Irene, Maria, and TD19. Therefore, TD19 is the most recent CVS. íslenska hurikein #12 _(samtal) 18:32, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

I think this is the longest invest discussion we've ever had. We might have to archive it in its own page. íslenska hurikein #12 _(samtal) 18:32, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Models showing development. Track, Intensity (Note: These links are continuously updated) --Holderca1 19:05, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

I agree with the CLP5 -Winter123 19:51, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

That makes you a "no skill" forecaster then, lol. CLP5 (actually CLIPER5) is the baseline climatology model and it ignores the current state of the atmosphere (the equivalent model for intensity is SHIFOR5 (SHF5)).--Nilfanion (talk) 20:14, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

We have a Numerical weather prediction article in need of love, then... Titoxd^(?!?) 20:38, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Actually, I think you want Tropical cyclone prediction model. :) It needs some love too, though. (Agh, I can't prioritize all these articles!) —AySz88\^-^ 21:09, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

99L.INVEST (2)

NOTE: This discussion was split at this point to make it easier to edit/carry on a discussion.

The XTRP has the most interesting path of all - landfall in Guyana! Does this particular model have a dodgy reputation or something? Pobbie Rarr 01:20, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

XTRP means extrapolation, which is really just a representation of the storm's current motion. It's not a model at all. —AySz88\^-^ 01:29, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

Ah. Pobbie Rarr 01:55, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

Might be a stupid question.. but can you guys tell me a link to the models? .. and an added note.. if a discussion on a TROPICAL WAVE .. just because its from Cape Verde are becoming this long.. think about how long a discussion on a katrina-like hurricane would be this year -Tcwd 02:17, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

Yeah, I can see it now.... "MAJOR HURRICANE KIRK (36)", lol.

Or would it be "CAPTAIN HURRICANE KIRK (36)"? :P Bad, I know, but I had to. I have a strong feeling that will be a looooooong discussion, full of PAINFULLY bad puns. Maybe not 36 sections, but probably 4 or 5.

Back on topic, now I agreee more with the BAMD. The main circulation near 41W 9N has a blowup of convection tonight. -Winter123 02:31, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

We shouldn't have extremely long discussions for a tropical wave again due to there being a lack of a moral argument. This storm, however, I expect to be a Carribean monster storm.(Same with Kirk, too, except that is East Coast of U.S.).The models may not agree with me, but it's just a gut feeling. Definitely, if it grows, it will happen within the next 24 hrs. guitarhero777777 06:26, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

I'm not sure if 99L.INVEST will develope because it seems to be heading straight towards northern South America which may prevent further development; also if wind shear continues, this wave may never develope. Alastor Moody _(talk) 08:05, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

It will probably curve northward soon. Chacor 08:35, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

Importance of this page to the World Wide Web/Internet

Soapbox moment: I think it's worth stepping back for a minute to realize how important wikipedia is becoming to the internet/people in general nowadays. There has been some very good press lately concerning this open source project, and it is deserved. A number of hard-working people are maintaining these pages, and they should be commended for doing this on their own time, for no other reason than to help spread knowledge far and wide. This is an idea a number of people in government service have embraced as well, including myself. Because of the tropical cyclone project specifically, there has been a large increase in the use of our tropical cyclone rainfall page/climatology that I maintain for our purposes at work, which in the old days would have been printed out, bound, and left to collect dust in our office. Now, anyone can access this information, and it can be updated at will. With printed media, any kind of update took a concerted effort and a bit of time. As someone who remembers well what life without the internet was like (for me, before 1993), it is amazing to see how quickly all this information can be tapped by anyone with only a few clicks/keystrokes. This was the promise we all hoped for back then in the early days, and technology (this time) has not let us down. Thegreatdr 19:58, 17 June 2006 (UTC)

If you ever introduced yourself, I missed it. It's great to have someone from the HPC editing here, welcome aboard. :) --Golbez 20:20, 17 June 2006 (UTC)

Hi! I feel that it's an honor to be working at Wikipedia alongside such prominent specialists (at least to those of us who follow these things!). Thank you for volunteering, too, and happy editing! :) --AySz88\^-^ 21:01, 17 June 2006 (UTC)

A lot of U.S. government pages in general get more attention because of Wikipedia that would normally go unnoticed. I'm sure the Navy Hurricane site or even the NHC itself get a noticeable amount of traffic from Wikipedia links. I would be interested to see their referral statistics. --tomf688 (talk - email) 22:18, 17 June 2006 (UTC)

That's very happy to hear, Thegreatdr. Bravo, Wikipedians. I'm proud of us. —BazookaJoe 01:50, 18 June 2006 (UTC)

Yea, I must say it's great to have you here, David (or Mr. Ross or whatever you want to be called ;)), and you're exactly right. It's been very cool to see the development of the electronic age through my life, especially Wikipedia recently. Hurricanehink (talk) 03:16, 18 June 2006 (UTC)

It's a pleasure to have you on Wikipedia, discussing the same things we are. I agree, technology has done millions, if not the billions of people around the world, proud. Double Dash 20:47, 22 June 2006 (UTC)

Wikipedia iss deh shizzit!!1 -Winter123 05:52, 18 July 2006 (UTC)

Image in lead box

I've removed the image in the lead box. I believe we established a precedent last season to keep that free of images until a track map of the season is available. --tomf688 (talk - email) 14:36, 21 June 2006 (UTC)

Correct you are. I reverted what that guy did before, but he put it back up. íslenska hurikein #12_(samtal) 14:39, 21 June 2006 (UTC)

Could you lead me to that discussion, please. It's a hurricane page, so there should be something attrative on the top of it. You can't just leave an infobox picture-less like that. It looks so much better with a picture on the top of it. → JARED ^(t)  14:41, 21 June 2006 (UTC)

Well what picture should it be a picture of? The current sheared mess the atlantic is right now? :) TimL 18:37, 21 June 2006 (UTC)

I just suggested that it be of something of importance currently happening in the Atlantic. For instance, I put an image of Alberto because it was the first storm. Maybe if Beryl comes along, she'd (he'd?) have her (his?) picture up there. I think that leaving it blank, however, with no eye-catching color, etc. is wasteful of the space there is to offer. → JARED ^(t)  20:01, 21 June 2006 (UTC)

It would be redundant as {{infobox hurricane small}} makes use of images of the storms. NSLE 20:05, 21 June 2006 (UTC)

Only of one image, though. Even then, you can get rid of the one below. Whatever. → JARED ^(t)  20:13, 21 June 2006 (UTC)

Your reasoning is flawed. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. NSLE 20:14, 21 June 2006 (UTC)

I really don't care. I am just trying to get you guys to see my point; I see yours. → JARED ^(t)  20:19, 21 June 2006 (UTC)

Invest?

I don't get it. All you guys are putting these "INVEST" things up top...what are you talking about? What's an INVEST? Are you guys just posting the small tropical developments up on the talk page. I don't care, but it's kind of strange for someone who has no idea what you're doing. ☻ → JARED ^(t)  13:25, 27 June 2006 (UTC)

An INVEST is a system for potential development, monitored by the NHC and the Naval Research Lab. NSLE 13:29, 27 June 2006 (UTC)

They come from this site, by the way: [4] —BazookaJoe 20:02, 27 June 2006 (UTC)

INVEST is the term used by the Navy to describe potential tropical cyclone formations. There are several different types of storm declarations used. Wikipedians have their own overused declaration of possible development called an AOI or Area of Interest. In previous years this meant that a user thought an area of convection had a chance of formation, but this year it has become overused and as such relegated to the appropriate subpage in the Talk section. Consequences of last years active season I guess. Invests are the official 'this may become something' title given to an area of convection. These, as per convention, are listed at the top of the Talk page listed under the week of the month they formed. In the section and discussion that ensues, many different strands of conversation occur, from talk about chances of survival to the potential impact on land and sometimes the occasional upgrade to Tropical Depression. As for not knowing what we're doing? That's okay, it took me most of the 2004 season to figure it out. Ever since, I've had a blast here! - Bladeswin posting as 207.30.145.6 18:23, 29 June 2006 (UTC)

Where are the storms?

Last year, by (checks watch) 17th July, we'd had two tropical storms, a cat 1, a cat 4 and a cat 5!

Now let's see: for this year we've had a very early, argument-causing, half-storm thing, and a tropical storm. I don't see this year getting past Nadine. --Thelb⁴ 21:11, 17 July 2006 (UTC)

Hey, you might be right. But, I'm still holding strong with my prediction of a Sandy. They're not all 2005's. →Cyclone1→ 22:03, 17 July 2006 (UTC)

But it could also pull a 2004 and start spitting out storms like crazy come August. Jake52 My talk 19:30, 17 July 2006 (EST)

2005's July was the most exceptionally active of its months, so a comparison is hard to draw. (For a July to keep pace with an August and a September, as it did in 2005, is virtually unheard of.) There are typically only a couple of storms before August. 2004, which reached O (Otto) had no storms at all until July 31st. —Cuiviénen 23:33, 17 July 2006 (UTC)

Don't count your chickens when it's mid-July. 2005 was the exception, not the norm. 1995 was only slightly ahead of 2006 at this point and that season was ahead of 2005 for a time in late August (Luis remains the earliest L-storm on record).

2006 should be more like 2003 & 2004. In the latter year, we didn't see Alex until the end of July but then the season went into overload during August and September. I expect a similar season this time round. Pobbie Rarr 01:35, 18 July 2006 (UTC)

Good points. I had been shooting for William, but now I think probably Rafael. -Winter123 05:51, 18 July 2006 (UTC)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but from what I've been sporadically reading above we've had high wind shear so far this year and storms simply haven't been able to organize. Simesa 15:30, 18 July 2006 (UTC)

That would be the jist of it. —BazookaJoe 18:06, 18 July 2006 (UTC)

People, it's July! The fact we had a Tropical Storm in June and a possible Tropical Storm in July (TD-2) means that we are ahead of the schedule. You cannot compare this season to last year's. In a normal year, July is very inactive. Shear is typically fairly strong in July. --Hurricanehink (talk) 18:33, 18 July 2006 (UTC)

Shear has been unbelievably strong over much of the Caribbean and GoM. If that shear had been as lax as it was last year, we could have already had our fifth or sixth storm. There have been plenty of tropical waves and disturbances that had ample opportunity to develop, however, one thing prevented them from doing so...wind shear!!! The great kawa 18:45, 18 July 2006 (UTC)

Lol, I guess we've all been too relient of our betting pool predictions, some having predictions like 11 storms form before August. If 2005 was average, we'd all be like, "Tropical Depression Two? Already!?" →Cyclone1→ 18:57, 18 July 2006 (UTC)

Shear has been bad, but that doesnt mean storms CANT form. Take that storm south of Nova Scotia yesterday. That was a probably 50-55mph tropical storm. NHC dismissed it because they were in disbelief that a tropical system can form that far north in July. WELL IT DID! If that can form in such crappy conditions, maybe many storms will form in equally crappy conditions this year. -Winter123 22:00, 18 July 2006 (UTC)

Shear is good, not bad. It sounds like a lot of people want more Cat 5's in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Those always end up with 1000s dead and billions of dollars lost. Good kitty 04:45, 19 July 2006 (UTC)

Yours is a valid point. I for one don't want more casualties. But at least the NHC can't ignore a hurricane. Simesa 05:03, 19 July 2006 (UTC)

Nowadays, I'd agree with you. A stroll through the hurricane database (HURDAT) proves otherwise, hence the reanalysis. Count the number of unnamed hurricanes from 1950 onward and get back to us Simesa. In addition, look at this image from 1992, which shows a system which formed after Andrew and before Bonnie offshore New England. Unfortunately the GOES imagery isn't detailed enough on this archive, but the system displayed an eye for a few hours before striking Sable Island during the day on September 12th. It will be addressed in the hurricane reanalysis, and likely added to the database. Thegreatdr 22:54, 19 July 2006 (UTC)

There are indications that a warm ENSO event (El Nino) may be in the process of forming as we are currently in a series of westerly wind bursts along the western Pacific equatorial region. Kelvin waves should be the process of moving eastward to South America as we speak. If this is true, you can expect many of the systems to form in the subtropics this season, which will have little bearing before August on how active the season may be, and that the main development region (the tropical Atlantic) would be rather quiet, which would be more obvious than in 2005. 1997 is a prime example of this point: 4 tropical cyclones by the end of July, and only 4 more the remainder of the season. I'd keep an eye on the monthly tropical cyclone summary and see what they say about the system that just passed by Nova Scotia. You never know. Thegreatdr 22:47, 19 July 2006 (UTC)

That would also mean a more active East Pacific season, like the one we are watching, right? Titoxd^(?!?) 22:53, 19 July 2006 (UTC)

Ask and ye shall receive, it seems. —Cuiviénen 22:50, 18 July 2006 (UTC)

Winter, if the Nova Scotia storm and the quasi-Beryl from the end of June are counted in the post-season, it would mean that we have seen four (sub)tropical storms already. That's not so lame! The wind shear this year may be back to its normal July self (i.e. strongly inhibiting), but the sea temperatures are again very impressive. Once the shear weakens, expect mayhem. That's why I think we'll see a near repeat of 2004. Pobbie Rarr 01:18, 19 July 2006 (UTC)

I never said it was lame. I said even if there are crappy conditions, storms will form. -Winter123 02:01, 19 July 2006 (UTC)

I know you didn't say it was lame. I wasn't referring to you, but rather the sentiments expressed by those who are already claiming this year is going to be a no-show. Pobbie Rarr 03:42, 19 July 2006 (UTC)

I'm still counting on my Mu prediction. :) Trust me, September's going to be HELL! --Revolución hablar ver 12:21, 22 July 2006 (UTC)

Everyone's too scared to one-up my Mu. (well except for that Phi guy but he was totally joking). --Revolución hablar ver 14:08, 22 July 2006 (UTC)

not like I want it to happen, but I have a gut feeling that Chris will be forming soon. And he's not like lil Beryl. He's gonna do some serious damage. --Revolución hablar ver 14:14, 22 July 2006 (UTC)

Something else to bear in mind - 2004 only saw its first storm on July 31. Two weeks later, Florida got hammered by 150mph Charley. Pobbie Rarr 14:29, 22 July 2006 (UTC)

I'm still placing my bet firmly behind that Valerie prediction. bob rulz 19:24, 22 July 2006 (UTC)

So we are expecting our first major hurricane sometime in the middle of August? Irfanfaiz 10:19, 23 July 2006 (UTC)

But, this year's pacific hurricane season starting to explode storms in July. Irfanfaiz 10:23, 23 July 2006 (UTC)

The Pacific hurricane season usually begins its active period earlier than the Atlantic. bob rulz 23:09, 23 July 2006 (UTC)

First major hurricane will be Chris, forming in late July. --Revolución hablar ver 18:56, 23 July 2006 (UTC)

Could there possibly be any name more ominous-sounding than HURRICANE OMEGA!!!! ? Runningonbrains 20:14, 23 July 2006 (UTC)

Reminds me of Galaxy Quest...bob rulz 23:09, 23 July 2006 (UTC)

I must concur with those who are saying that 2005 was a very unusual season. This year, the shear is back, and the SSTs are also cooler than last year due to cold water upwelling off the the Cape Verde Islands. So the factors that gave us such an interesting season last year are not in place for this year. Even so, all that is needed is for the shear to abate for a while to get a strong hurricane season going. --EMS | Talk 02:25, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

And that will probably happen come August. bob rulz 03:40, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

Hey, it will still start with Alpha. Irfanfaiz 09:16, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

Shear has lessened significantly over the GOM and Carribean over the past few weeks, which will certainly help 99L. Who knows? With all the impressive waves coming off africa, maybe we'll have a big Cape Verde season this year. -Winter123 02:39, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

Should the forecast change

hmmm, we're in the end of July and only two names down... I guess Doctor Gray would lower the forecast in August to 12 named storms only, 6 hurricanes and 2 major storms... the activity has been very less and shear is very high all-throughout the atlantic... Charmel 4:29, 25 July 2006 (UTC)

If the numbers are lowered, I would say it will be only slightly. Remember, 2004 had not seen its first storm yet at this point in the season but eventually finished with 15 named storms. And as things stand, 2006 is already above average as far as the number of storms goes; just because it is not 2005 doesn't mean it won't be an active season. Pobbie Rarr 21:07, 26 July 2006 (UTC)

Are you serious? It's JULY!!!!! Since 1995, only 1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, and 2005 had at least two storms before August 1, and all of them, with the exception of 1997's El Nino, were above normal. Even seasons that had a lot of shear before August, like 2000, 2002, or 2004, had active seasons (15, 12, and 15). Everyone should disregard last year's activity when thinking of this year's activity. Last year had no interest in climatology. Instead, when comparing it to the last 11 seasons (excluding 2005 and 1997), it's right on track if not ahead of the normal in terms of storms. --Hurricanehink (talk) 21:43, 26 July 2006 (UTC)

I'd say it will be lowered to 15-9-5 or something like that. Also we'd be at Debby now if two systems hadn't run out of time (the late June NC blob getting 2/3 of the way to a closed circulation and this one making landfall while clearly developing one). CrazyC83 22:28, 26 July 2006 (UTC)

Don't forget the other thing that formed from pre-Beryl. íslenska hurikein #12 _(samtal) 22:29, 26 July 2006 (UTC)

My two bits:If that wave out by Cape Verde continues to ber possible, it'll be 17 again--in 2004 the season hasdn't started, so my null hypothesis is a size of that one, plus what has already occuredl 15+2=17

I still hold that this season will go crazy once it gets going. I'm seeing a lot of strong waves. -Winter123 02:41, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

2006 storm names

Recently the "2006 storm names" section was recently renamed as "Storm names". I have no problem with this rename; in fact I have considered doing such a rename before. The problem is that this section is named "<Year> storm names" in every other seasonal article - so if we are going to rename it the rename needs to be done into every article to keep them consistent. See for instance 1950 Atlantic hurricane season, 1972 Pacific typhoon season, 2001 Pacific hurricane season. The only exception to the current rule (besides this article) may be the Southern Hemisphere seasons - see 2002-03 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season. — jdorje (talk) 17:19, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

I agree there should be a rename in all the Northern hemisphere seasons, its not that many articles. What is done in this article makes sense "2006" is unneeded in "2006 Storm names", it is the "2006 Atlantic hurricane season" after all… The southern hemisphere has the problem that there are many naming lists. If and when the SH is split up like is proposed then the same structure should be adopted there.--Nilfanion (talk) 17:58, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

Are You Serious

Who ever thinks this hurricane season is not as busy as the past has amnesia. Last year was a fluke. There have never been that many storms that early in the year and it will never ever ever happen again. 1) In 2004, Alex formed in August and within 6 weeks Florida had gotten thrashed by 4 Cat 3+ storms. 2) Until August 8 we are still above average for the season. 3) The peak of the season is still weeks away.

If you have any problem with what I just posted then %$#%, lol, just kidding, but for real, replys and comments welcomed with more than open arms (act32701@hotmail.com) orO-TOWN'S AT 19:35, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

That's been said above and previously, and though I think a repeat of 2005 is possible in our lifetimes due to global warming, you're pretty much right on the money. --Hurricanehink (talk) 19:41, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

HAH!! I read and I didn't even know you said that. You even used the same expression that I did. Are you sure we are not related. O-TOWN'S AT 20:01, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

LOL, pretty sure we aren't. --Hurricanehink (talk) 20:21, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

I think that this season will be active but not like last year. I think that given the warm weather there is a (small) chance of a tropical storm hitting (or even forming near) Ireland or the UK. Cryomaniac 22:39, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

No chance of a tropical system forming near the British Isles, though one could possibly reach here before turning extratropical, like Hurricane Faith of 1966 did with the Faroe Islands (it was still a Cat. 2 hurricane when it hit). Pobbie Rarr 22:52, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

Those of us of a certain age remember Charley bashing us =) doktorb _words^deeds 11:43, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Well, Charley was extratropical, as was every other tropical cyclone affecting Europe prior to Vince. --Hurricanehink (talk) 12:44, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

I had just become extratropical, though, if I remember correctly. —Cuiviénen 23:25, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

If you mean Charley (1986) that became extratropical south of Newfoundland, so was nowhere near Europe as a tropical system. Looking at the global map only Vince has made landfall in Europe as a tropical system. However, 3 further storms (including Faith) got quite close and there appears to be one older storm which made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Ireland. However as its an older storm I don't trust the best track until I figure out which storm that is, any ideas?--Nilfanion (talk) 23:40, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

99L offtopic discussion

IT IS GOOD THAT THEY KILL PEOPLE AND DESTROY THINGS, THAT IS WHAT THEY ARE DESIGNED TO DO. Now with regards to our future little Chris here; I estimate 6-8 hours before they deem it a Depression. At the same time, that mass of convection could just be fooling us. O-TOWN'S AT (12:17am EST, July 28, 2006)

Does it matter whether they're good or bad? If it doesn't, why are we wasting space in the MySQL database? Titoxd^(?!?) 04:34, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

It's not good that people die, but hurricanes are very intresting beasts, so looking and hoping for development is okay by me, bu we do have to remember the human toll and be a little humane about it (Talking to you OTown person. That was harsh.). guitarhero777777 04:58, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

HAH, humane?? Fact is i love hurricances. I was on the beach when Charley came ashore in Punta Gorda. I'm not dead. I was in Navarre Beach, on the beach when Hurricane Dennis came ashore, not dead. You have to be completely ignorant and stupid to be killed by a hurricane. When they say evacuate... DO IT. And I don't quite give Katrina victims any leyway either because they were warned long before. If you make the concious choice to stay in town for a super hurricane like Andrew or Katrina and you don't know what your doing then a death doesn't phase me.

Don't take me the wrong way. Sorry, people die and the world still spins. My heart sinks a little for the mass casualty during Katrina, but more for the towns in MS that were basically wiped off the planet than those in Missouri. No, I don't believe that was harsh at all. O-TOWN'S AT 05:23, 28 July 2006 (UTC) Now concentrate on the future Chris, not hate mail for Andrew :)O-TOWN'S AT 05:23, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Be civil. Your behaviour is getting very irritating. Chacor 06:12, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Never seen such discussion in wikipedia. Hurricane's are destructive. And there is no way of avoiding it completely. Irfanfaiz 06:40, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Wow, that looks good. I wasn't here yesterday, and I didn't expect much for today and now we've that. -- WmE 06:43, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

"You have to be completely ignorant and stupid to be killed by a hurricane. "

Um.... lol...? No, actually thats just mean. It's a conscious choice to stay in the path of a hurricane. Now why don't we all just settle down... I HAVE CANDY! -Winter123 06:55, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Okay, I am sorry, I probably did go to far back there. I was being oestered by two annoying administrators and I was ticked off. If I truely offended anyone you can send your hate mail to act32701@hotmail.comO-TOWN'S AT 08:36, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

As for out Tropical Disturbance, it looks like it will be a depression by sometime today, my original call for it to be named today I will retract because it didn't develop as rapidly as I had expected and hoped overnight. O-TOWN'S AT 08:36, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Yeah that's fair and I agree with you totally, glad to see some of us retain perspective here. The ideal hurricane season to me is one with NO hurricanes. Comments like "it is good hurricanes kill people" are highly offensive. See this comment by User:Thegreatdr, who is a meteorologist at the HPC. Think about what it says about you before you say "this lump of clouds will become a hurricane", you note that it might happen but don't celebrate that. For what its worth, I think it is certainly possible that 99L will become Chris, but at this time it as just as likely to come to nothing.--Nilfanion (talk) 11:41, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

I told him that already! They may not always kill people, but they wipe out homes and property. "Get out of the way or you are stupid." Its statements like that I cannot stand. People couldn't move their whole city away from Katrina. They lost everything, and its sick to cheer this stuff on. Good kitty 14:42, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Yeah, Andrew, they are right, you did go too far. I think you mean't to say it in a different way, you just used the wrong words to describe your thoughts. This is like the third time you've done this. Though you are right in one aspect. They (The City of New Orleans & The denizens) should have taken more measures to get people out of that city. There is absolutely no excuse for the loss of life acrued during Katrina. Is that what you were trying to say. Btw, I just watched your Alberto footage and it is average. And for those who think that this comment belongs on a user talk page, hold on... The reports that I am reading say that this particular system is headed for an area that is highly volitile. Why, do you all think that this is going to develop into some major storm. Am I missing something. I hate typing on these pages so you will rarely see me on here often but for one last breath... You should give Andrew more credit than you are. I have known him for 6 years and have been there with him when he goes off and does stupid stuff like film landfalls of major hurricanes. He is trying to launch a website with all his work on it as we speak. He is the biggest hurricane freak that I know. I myself like tornadoes more than hurricanes. My name is Matt btw and Andrew is my roommate. Good talking to yall, l8r!12.116.160.174 18:55, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Would it be possible (and or allowed) for someone to prune this discussion? Very few of the above comments relate to 99L, and for someone coming here to actually read about the storm and opinions about the storm, I'm kinda put off by such a long, drawn out blah that's off topic. That being said, I think we all need to get our heads on straight and approach this season in a polite and courteous manner. We do not predict the storms on WP, we do not create the storms on WP (obviously), and we should not make rude comments on talk pages on WP. Storms are neither good, nor bad. They are. That being said, 99L is looking pretty down there. I would be surprised if it didn't develop into a TD rather quickly. The only question is where it's headed. - Jake - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 22:01, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Done. -- RattleMan 22:11, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Just in case y'all didn't notice, our O-TOWN friend has been blocked, so it's highly likely he was merely trolling you. He was blocked for soliciting child pornography (or attempting to make Wikipedia look like a place where one can solicit child pornography). Good job, kids - You have lost. You have been trolled. Have a nice day. --Golbez 23:24, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Thank God! Child Porno, really? That's lower than low. I'm glad he's off. Now, we only have people who are okay in the head on this page and we won't have this argument (are hurricanes bad?) anymore. guitarhero777777 23:55, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Golbez: About the last bit, I don't think people who have tried to assume good faith, or tried to reason in the face of incivility, should be put down in such a manner. Please don't use such a tone against basically everyone that tried to talk to him. —AySz88\^-^ 00:31, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

I agree. You can't have it both ways. WP:AGF can result in the feeding of trolls, but it's worth it. Don't beat people over the head for doing the right thing. --Elliskev 01:12, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

Y'all need to learn that you have to assume bad faith sometimes. It's very nice to assume good faith, and hindsight is 20/20, but really, just look at the guy. I do apologize, though. And hurricanes are indeed a good thing, just as massively destructive earthquakes are a good thing - without them, our system would be far less balanced and we would not have the hospitable planet we have. However, the unfortunate human effects are a bad thing. --Golbez 01:10, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

I find it wicked funny that this was moved down here, and that OTOWN was banned. LOL all around.

And I say hurricanes are just a part of life. Who cares if they are good or bad, because no matter what you say, they will happen. If you say "HAHAHAH I HOPE THIS HURRICANE DESTROYS NEW ORLEANS!!!1", other than it being offensive to people that live there, it does not affect the hurricane at all. The hurricane will go where the winds take it. -Winter123 02:46, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

2006 Atlantic Storm Articles

I think/or propose that the 2006 Atlanitc hurricane season should have a seperate article for its stroms just as 2005 did. Alastor Moody _(talk) 23:00, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

We already had the discussion, located here and here. In my personal opinion, only storms that have a threat to land should have articles operationally, and wait until the storm is over for fish storms. The storm history can use archived Tropical Weather Outlooks and discussions, while impact can rely on news reports and preliminary storm reports from NWS offices. Hurricanehink (talk) 02:01, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

And having a "List of" article is entirely dependent on the activity of the season. If it ends up like 2004, then there's no point to it. Titoxd^(?!?) 02:06, 29 July 2006 (UTC)