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2006 United States House of Representatives elections

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This is an old revision of this page, as edited by Bobblehead (talk | contribs) at 18:52, 7 August 2006 (→Vulnerable incumbents and open seats: Whipped out my mad crazy math skills and +1 to open seats, incumbents, and Republicans.). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

Template:Future election Elections for the United States House of Representatives will be held on November 7 2006, with all of the 435 seats in the House up for election. Since Representatives are elected for two-year terms, those elected will serve in the 110th United States Congress from January 3 2007 until January 3 2009.

The 2006 Senate election is scheduled for the same date as the House election, as well as many state and local elections, including those for 36 state governors.

Summary

The House is currently composed of 231 Republicans, 201 Democrats and 1 Independent (who caucuses with the Democrats). The two vacant seats are New Jersey's 13th congressional district and Texas's 22nd congressional district. Republicans hold a 29 seat advantage, so Democrats would need to pick up 15 seats to take control of the House, which has had a Republican majority since 1995. Predictions based on historical trends suggest that such a swing is possible, if not probable.[1]

This page is for swing districts and notable races. A complete list of the races in all districts (but without the commentary below) can be found at United States House elections, 2006 complete list.

Vulnerable incumbents and open seats

It is not yet clear which seats will have the most competitive races. Past election history indicates that incumbents are difficult to defeat, even when their party affiliation is at odds with the natural tendencies of the district, and that the most competitive races are those where the incumbent retires, followed by those in which the incumbent has served only one term. Besides the elections listed here, it is possible that additional special elections will be held due to the death or resignation of Representatives in the interim. This would also change the party balances.

There are currently 31 open seats—29 incumbents who will not be seeking re-election plus 2 vacancies; New Jersey's 13th congressional district, which will be filled at the same time as the general election, with the winner taking office in November, immediately after the votes are certified; and Texas's 22nd congressional district, which has not yet announced final plans for a special election. Of the 29 open seats, 20 are held by Republicans, 8 are held by Democrats and 1 is held by an independent. The vacant seat in New Jersey was held by a Democrat and the one in Texas was Republican (Tom Delay).

Swing Districts and notable races

The Cook Political Report, an independent, non-partisan election analysis newsletter, has listed 74 seats, 54 currently held by Republicans and 20 by Democrats, as being potentially in play.

As of July 19, 2006:

  • 361 seats are Solid and therefore not considered competitive.
  • 18 Republican and 10 Democratic seats are considered Likely Republican or Likely Democratic, meaning that while these races are not competitive at the moment, they could likely become competitive.
  • 21 Republican and 10 Democratic seats are considered Lean Republican or Lean Democratic, as they are politically competitive, yet one party has a distinct advantage.
  • All 15 seats that are rated as a Toss Up are currently held by Republicans, including four open seats, not including the seat vacated by Tom DeLay, which leans Republican. A Court recently ruled that Delay cannot be removed from the ballot and therefore there will be no Republican candidate on the ballot.
  • All current Republican seats that are either rated as Lean Republican or Likely Republican favor Republicans, as do all current Democratic seats that are either rated Lean Democratic or Likely Democratic.

Arizona

The primary is on September 12, 2006.

  • Arizona's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Rick Renzi (R) is well-known for his strongly conservative positions in a district that is competitive. In 2002 he won only 49% of the vote, elected by just 6,000 votes. Renzi gained national attention in 2004 when he engaged in a screaming match against moderate Republican Mark Kirk of Illinois over the issue of embryonic stem cell research, which Renzi considers an act of murder. According to media reports, Renzi choked Kirk during the incident. Both Congressmen have since denied the reports. Renzi has also stated that he will not return some $30,000 in campaign contributions from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC, despite calls from Democrats to do so. Liberal advocacy group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington has included Renzi in its list of the 13 most corrupt members of the House of Representatives. However, Renzi's leading opponent dropped out of the race and none of the remaining five Democrats currently running is considered a viable candidate. Libertarian David Schlosser has also qualified for the November ballot.
  • Arizona's 5th congressional district— Incumbent J.D. Hayworth (R) appeared on his way to an easy reelection this election cycle, but that has changed. Democrats have a locally well-known candidate in State Senator Harry Mitchell, a former Mayor of Tempe. Mitchell has been a political force in his home town, one of the largest communities in the district, and Democrats are enthusiastic about his candidacy. A May 9 SurveyUSA poll shows Hayworth leading by only 50% to 45%. The district Hayworth represents leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so. Republicans are concerned, but point out that Mitchell has gotten off to a late start and that Hayworth will be well-funded. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.
  • Arizona's 8th congressional district— Incumbent Jim Kolbe (R) announced on November 23, 2005 that he would not seek re-election in 2006 [2]. His district, located in Southeastern Arizona and based in the suburbs of Tucson, is Republican-leaning, but competitive: President Bush won the district with 53% of the vote in 2004 (although only 50% in 2000). Also, the fact that it has been electing Kolbe, an openly gay Republican, for two decades, often by wide margins (61% in 2004), shows that this district is by no means a socially conservative stronghold. The Democratic candidates include ex-Air Force fighter pilot Jeff Latas, veteran and Raytheon employee Alex Rodriguez, former government employee Francine Shacter, former State Senator Gabrielle Giffords who resigned from the Arizona Legislature on December 1, 2005 in preparation for her Congressional campaign, businessman Dwight Leister and former top-rated news anchor Patty Weiss who, after a 34-year broadcasting career, was the most recent Democrat to enter the race. Republican Randy Graf, a former state Representative who challenged Kolbe for their party's nomination in 2004, is also running on the Republican ticket, as well as veteran and small business owner Mike Hellon and current state Representative Steve Huffman. Also runnning is Libertarian David Nolan. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up.

One potential factor in Arizona elections could be the re-election of popular Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano, who is facing off against Republican businessman Don Goldwater, a relative of the late Presidential candidate Barry Goldwater. A strong turnout for Napolitano could result in several close races for many incumbent Republicans.

California

  • California's 11th congressional district— Longtime incumbent Richard Pombo (R) won reelection in 2004 by a reasonably comfortable 61% to 39% margin. Pombo has been associated with the ethical and legal scandals revolving around Tom DeLay and Jack Abramoff and is currently under investigation, which is seen as eroding his popular support. The Democratic candidate who garnered the 39% in 2004, Jerry McNerney, joined that race as a write-in candidate two weeks before the primary election. In 2006, McNerney was challenged in the primary by Steve Filson. Filson was backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee but was surprisingly defeated by McNerney in the primary. Pombo was challenged for the Republican nomination by former Representative Pete McCloskey, one of the co-authors of the Endangered Species Act. Pombo won 63% of the primary vote to 32% for McCloskey.[6] McCloskey has now endorsed McNerney.[7] The eleventh district is located in the San Joaquin Valley, includes portions of the San Francisco Bay Area, and leans Republican. A recent poll showed Pombo losing to Jerry McNerney, 46% to 42%.[8][9] Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.
  • California's 22nd congressional district— Incumbent Republican Bill Thomas, a prominent and influential member of the Republican caucus, is retiring after more than 25 years in Congress. He represents the agricultural Central Valley, a Republican stronghold where 52% of voters are registered Republicans and 30% are Democrats. He won re-election in 2004 unopposed. Republican Leader of the California Assembly, Kevin McCarthy, a former aide to Thomas, is the GOP nominee and is very popular in the Central Valley.[10]
  • California's 41st congressional district— Incumbent Republican Jerry Lewis (R) is under investigation for his connections to the lobbyists that bribed former Representative Duke Cunningham(R).[2][3][4] As election day nears and the scandal heats up, this long-time incumbent faces a potentially tough race in this long-time conservative stronghold.[5] Lewis received 83% of the vote in 2004, but he faced no Democratic opposition. He will face Democrat Louie Contreras in November.
  • California's 50th congressional district—The winner of the special election on June 6, 2006 was former Congressman Brian Bilbray. He was challenged by Cardiff School Board member Francine Busby, who appeared to have pulled ahead during the campaign. However, in the final week of the election, she was overheard implying that she was encouraging illegal aliens to vote. The Bilbray campaign gleefully broadcast that remark throughout the district. Republicans invested five million dollars in the race, and Democrats two million, and Bilbray won the election by a 5% margin. He will still remain a target of the Democrats in the November election, but this was seen as Busby's best chance at victory and Bilbray will now have the advantages of incumbency. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.

Colorado

The primary is on August 8, 2006.

  • Colorado's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent John Salazar (D) was elected in 2004 by a 50% to 47% margin. Salazar's victory was in part because his Republican opponent backed a locally unpopular plan to redistribute water from the western slope, the heart of this district, to Denver. Also, the election was generally good to Colorado Democrats, who gained a U.S. Senate seat (won by Salazar's brother, Ken), a House seat (this one), and control of the state legislature. But Republicans vow to take back this competitive (narrowly won by President Bush) district nestled in the Rocky Mountains of Western Colorado. Currently Republican businessman Scott Tipton is running. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic.
  • Colorado's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Tom Tancredo (R), a firebrand in the Republican caucus, has taken stances at odds with some of his electorate, such as opposing gun control in a district which experienced the Columbine Massacre, a stance which nearly cost him reelection previously. He won with 60% of the vote in 2004, however his opponent in 2006 will be Bill Winter a Veteran of both the Navy and Marine Corps. Tancredo's chances at reelection are very high despite his verbal gaffes because he represents a solidly Republican district that gave President Bush his highest vote total in the state, but he has alienated much of the Republican leadership by harshly criticizing the president's stances on illegal immigration, climaxing in a "screaming match" with Karl Rove at the White House, where Rove told Tancredo not to "darken the doorstep of the White House".[6] The position of the GOP on Tancredo remains ambiguous and whether they will attempt to remove him or support him is currently unknown. Tancredo recently remarked that if U.S. Senator Wayne Allard were to retire in 2008, he would run to succeed Allard.[citation needed]
  • Colorado's 7th congressional district— Incumbent Bob Beauprez (R) was reelected to a second term in 2004 with 55% of the vote, but won his first term by only 121 votes. His retirement to run for Governor of Colorado makes this seat highly competitive. The 7th District is located in the western Denver suburbs and was narrowly won by John Kerry in 2004. State education chairman Rick O'Donnell is unopposed for the Republican nomination; former state Representative Peggy Lamm leads former State Senator Ed Perlmutter on the Democratic side. Perlmutter is better-funded and backed by organized labor, but Lamm is the sister-in-law of former Democratic Governor Richard Lamm and is benefitting from her familiar last name. Michael Schiavo is actively campaigning for Lamm. Dave Chandler, a Green, is also a candidate. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up.

Connecticut

The primary is on August 8, 2006.

  • Connecticut's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Rob Simmons (R) a Vietnam War veteran and winner of the Silver Star, won reelection by 54% to 46% in 2004, in a Democratic-leaning district encompassing eastern Connecticut, which includes Norwich and New London. The 2002 nominee, former state Representative Joe Courtney lacks military experience but is planning another run. Simmons received great credit for saving the New London submarine base from closure in the BRAC process, is closely aligned with fellow Vietnam War veteran John McCain, and made no political mistakes of note, but Bush is highly unpopular in New England, which should help Courtney. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up.
  • Connecticut's 4th congressional district— Incumbent Chris Shays (R) won reelection by a 52% to 48% margin in 2004 and represents a Democratic-trending district encompassing southwestern Connecticut that includes Bridgeport and Westport. Westport Selectwoman Diane Farrell, the 2004 nominee, is challenging Shays again and is well-funded. Shays's problem now is almost exclusively centered on his support for the Iraq War, as he is mostly liberal on domestic issues. Shays' endorsement of Democratic Senator Joseph Lieberman struck many as signs of worry on his part. Shays can't be attacked as a knee-jerk conservative, but local unpopularity of both George W. Bush and the Iraq War are helping Farrell's campaign. Robocalls by groups thought to support Farrell were made in the district during July falsely claiming Shays supported President Bush's opposition to stem cell research; one local newspaper called the phone campaign "despicable" http://www.connpost.com/editorials/ci_4106583 Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up.
  • Connecticut's 5th congressional district— Although incumbent Nancy Johnson (R) won with at least 60% of the vote in 2004 and faced a difficult challenge (running against a fellow incumbent in a redrawn district) in 2002, winning with just 54%, she is still a Republican in a swing district. While the 5th is Connecticut's most conservative region, John Kerry won the district by about 1100 votes in 2004 and Al Gore won it when Johnson represented it as the 6th District in 2000. She faces a credible challenge from state Senator Chris Murphy. Johnson is popular in the district, but with Bush's rating in New England at rock bottom, a Democratic victory is possible. In fact, in a slightly more Democratic district and with a weak Republican presidential candidate, Bob Dole, leading the ticket, Johnson very nearly lost in 1996. Johnson is a prodigious fundraiser, and added $867,000 to her coffers in the last quarter, raising her cash on hand to over $2.6 million.Murphy has had to defend his record of supporting tax increases in the Connecticut legislature.[7] Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.

One factor which must be considered in all 2006 Connecticut races is the popularity of incumbent Republican Governor Jodi Rell, who is seeking re-election, and the divisions in Democratic ranks due to the primary between Senator Joseph Lieberman and Ned Lamont, as well as Lieberman's possible independent candidacy should he lose the Democrat primary.

Florida

The primary is on September 5, 2006.

  • Florida's 8th congressional district- Incumbent Ric Keller is known in Congress for his Cheeseburger Bill that passed without his vote because of his hospitalization for a cardiac arrhythmia in 2005. Keller has been reelected with little trouble in the past. This year he faces a respectable opponent in Orange County Commissioner Homer Hartage. Still, Keller's district votes Republican and is dominated by Orlando. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.
  • Florida's 9th congressional district— Incumbent Mike Bilirakis (R) plans to retire, and many had not expected this seat to be very competitive as it is a Republican-leaning district located on Florida's Gulf Coast north of Tampa. Bilirakis' son, state Representative Gus Bilirakis, has announced that he will run for his father's seat. He appears to be the front runner in his party, though he faces a primary challenge from chiropractor Dave Langheier. Former Hillsborough County Commissioner Phyllis Busansky is the likely Democratic nominee. After Busansky reported stronger than expected first-quarter fundraising, many have begun categorizing this race as competitive. Due in part to Busansky's fundraising, the DCCC has chosen her as one of 22 candidates that have the potential to pick up seats, and will likely provide Busansky with a high amount of funding. (For more details, see Florida 9th congressional district election, 2006). Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.
  • Florida's 10th congressional district-Incumbent Bill Young (R) may be vulnerable as he represents Pinellas County which went to Bush by only 226 votes in the last election and Kerry very nearly won the district in 2004 with 49 percent of the vote. Young will face Democrat Samm Simpson in the general election in november.
  • Florida's 11th congressional district— Incumbent Jim Davis (D) is running for governor, and this seat is not expected to be very competitive as it contains solidly Democratic Tampa and South St. Petersburg. Florida State Senate Democratic Leader Les Miller, attorney and civic leader Scott Farrell, and Hillsborough County Commissioner Kathy Castor have announced that they will run for the seat. Eddie Adams Jr., an Architect & Ex-Hospital Laboratory Technologist, is the only Republican to have filed for the race.
  • Florida's 13th congressional district— Incumbent Katherine Harris (R) is planning to challenge Senator Bill Nelson, a Democrat, in 2006 and will vacate her Gulf Coast seat to do so. Polls show she faces an uphill battle in the Senate race, but any Republican likely has the edge to win her congressional district, which is solidly GOP-leaning and based in Sarasota and Manatee. Harris won reelection in 2004 with an unexpectedly modest 55% of the vote. State Representative Nancy Detert, banker George "Tramm" Hudson, wealthy automobile dealer Vern Buchanan and former state Representative Mark Flanagan are running for the Republican nomination. The two Democrats vying for their party's nomination are Sarasota banker and businesswoman Christine Jennings and the nominee in the 2004 race, Jan Schneider. Jennings has been heavily outraising Schneider. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.
  • Florida's 16th congressional district- Incumbent Mark Foley (R) was reelected with 68% of the vote in 2004. A moderate/liberal Republican, Foley considered running for the Senate seat held by Democrat Bill Nelson, but did not file by the May deadline. Foley's legislation has included preserving Florida's Everglades, providing youth organizations access to FBI fingerprint background checks, and, more recently, overhauling national sex offender laws through the Adam Walsh Child Safety and Protection Act of 2006. Democrat Tim Mahoney will challenge Foley in 2006. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.
  • Florida's 22nd congressional district— Republican incumbent Clay Shaw has been elected to twelve terms in the House and has a local following going back to his days as Mayor of Fort Lauderdale in the 1970s. He is seeking reelection to his seat, but many Democrats hope that this time around number 13 really will be unlucky. Shaw faced a tough challenge back in 2000 from State Senator Elaine Bloom, who lost by only 599 votes. But Shaw was redistricted into more favorable turf and scored somewhat easier reelections in 2002 and 2004. Now he is once again a top target of the Democrats—this time, State Senate Minority Leader Ron Klein plans to challenge Shaw. Expect this race to be very close as Klein is a good fundraiser and good friend of neighboring Congressman Robert Wexler. Shaw has been criticized for refusing to return $30,000 in campaign contributions from ARMPAC, which notes former Texas congressman Tom DeLay as one of its founders. Though Shaw won reelection to this seat in 2004 with 63% of the vote, John Kerry still defeated George W. Bush in the district by a margin of 50% to 48%. Also, Shaw's opponent in 2004 dropped out before the election. The revelation that Shaw has lung cancer makes the race even more unpredictable. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up.

Georgia

Main article: Georgia United States House elections, 2006
  • Georgia's 8th Congressional District (old Georgia's 3rd congressional district)— A Republican mid-decade redistricting made this Macon-based district more compact and somewhat more Republican. Democratic incumbent Jim Marshall faces a very tough race against former Congressman Mac Collins, who represented an adjoining district from 1993 to 2005. Marshall was reelected with 63% in 2004, but in 2002 won by only 50.5% to 49.5%. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic.
  • Georgia's 12th congressional district— Democrat John Barrow unseated first-term Republican Max Burns by 52% to 48% in a Democratic leaning district which Burns won over a scandal-tainted opponent in 2002. This year, Burns is seeking a rematch. Recent redistricting made this southern Georgia district more marginal, but the balance still leans to the Democrats. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic.


Hawaii

Idaho

  • Idaho's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Butch Otter (R) is running for Governor. Though it elected a Democrat in 1990 and 1992, the district, which contains the Idaho Panhandle region and most of the Boise metropolitan area, has been reliably Republican in recent years. In the May 23 primary, hard-line conservative state Representative Bill Sali edged out a crowded field to win the Republican nomination with 26%. Attorney Larry Grant won the Democratic nomination. Sali is a controversial figure in Idaho politics who clashed repeatedly with Republican leadership in the Idaho Legislature. He also ran a lot of negative ads against his fellow Republicans to win the nomination. All this may give Grant a boost in the general election, although Sali remains favored given the GOP tilt of the area and the popular Otter at the top of the ticket. Other candidates include Constitution Party nominee Paul Smith and independent Dave Olson. A new party called the United Party [8] has also fielded a candidate, newspaper publisher and small business owner Andy Hedden-Nicely. These candidates are not expected to make a significant showing in the race. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.


Illinois

  • Illinois's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Henry Hyde (R) is retiring after 16 terms in the House. Decorated Iraq War veteran L. Tammy Duckworth, with substantial backing from the state and national Democratic establishment, won her party's primary. State Senator Peter Roskam is running as the Republican candidate. The district contains some of the western suburbs of Chicago in DuPage and Cook counties. Democratic strength in the district has grown in recent years, but the balance still tilts to the Republicans. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up. [9]
  • Illinois's 8th congressional district— Incumbent Melissa Bean (D) defeated 35-year House veteran Phil Crane 52% to 48% in 2004, and is being targeted by Republicans who hope to regain control of the seat. Her seat is Republican-leaning and includes the northern suburbs of Chicago in and around Lake County. Investment banker David McSweeney, who has been willing to spend much of his own money on the campaign, won a crowded Republican primary. This race is a top Republican priority. A more liberal third party candidate and former 2004 Democratic Candidate, Bill Scheurer, is running and some labor unions are withholding support from Bean, complicating her re-election chances. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic.
  • Illinois's 11th congressional district- Republican Jerry Weller, who was part of the 1994 Republican Revolution in which the GOP took control of the House and Senate, was reelected with 64% of the vote in 2004. Weller has received donations from a number of controversial sources. They include Exelon, the parent company of his district's electric utility, Commonwealth Edison, which is being sued by Will County residents following leaks of radioactive tritium at two plants within the district, which has contaminated well water. Weller has not returned these donations. Other controversial donors include Brent Wilkes (a co-conspirator in the Duke Cunningham bribery scandal), disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff (as well as Indian tribes that were represented by Abramoff), Tom DeLay's Americans for a Republican Majority, Enron, and the law firm of Winston and Strawn, which represented former disgraced Illinois Governor George Ryan (R) in his corruption trial. This year, Weller will face Democrat John Pavich, who if elected will become the youngest member of Congress (born in 1976). Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.
  • Illinois's 17th congressional district— This western Illinois district, which includes Moline, was unexpectedly vacated when longtime liberal Congressman Lane Evans announced that he would not seek reelection due to a decline in his health. The Democratic nominee is Phil Hare, a former aide to Evans. The Republican nominee, former newscaster Andrea Lane Zinga, ran against Evans in 2004 and won 39% of the vote. The district leans Democratic, but not overwhelmingly so. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic.

Indiana

As of mid-July, the DCCC announced it would target three Indiana districts. They are: [10]

  • Indiana's 2nd congressional district— Chris Chocola (R) won reelection in 2004 with 54% of the vote. Chocola was first elected in 2002 by a 50-46% margin. Democrat Joe Donnelly, who lost to Chocola 54-45% in 2004, is running again in 2006. Democrats blame Donnelly's 2004 loss on a lack of funding from the national party that allowed Chocola to outspend Donnelly by a two-to-one margin. President Bush has visited the South Bend district seven times since 2000, suggesting that Republicans may be concerned that Chocola is potentially vulnerable. Recently, Donnelly was embarrassed when it was revealed that he was delinquent in paying property taxes. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.
  • Indiana's 8th congressional district— John Hostettler (R), who has only a 34% approval rating, is being challenged by Vanderburg County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. Hostettler has a history of winning tough reelections, but Ellsworth is believed to be his most popular opponent to date. In a district that usually votes Republican in national elections but frequently supports Democrats locally, Hostettler may have to moderate himself after several verbal blunders in Congress, the most infamous being a widely denounced statement that, "Like a moth to a flame the Democrats can't help themselves when it comes to denigrating and demonizing Christians." According to the Democrats, the district is very marginal.[11] The district has been nicknamed "The Bloody Eighth" due to its frequent ousting of incumbent Congressmen, including in 1958, 1966, 1974, 1978, 1982, and 1994. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up.
  • Indiana's 9th congressional district— Incumbent Mike Sodrel (R) defeated then-incumbent Baron Hill by only 1,425 votes in 2004, the smallest winning percentage in any congressional race that year. [12]. Hill has announced he hopes to reclaim his seat. He defeated anti-war challenger Gretchen Clearwater in the May 2 primary. Sodrel is a self-described staunch Republican party loyalist in an evenly divided district. Republicans point out that Hill had the advantages of incumbency in 2004 and won't this time. Democrats claim Hill's constituent service record was superior to Sodrel's. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up.

Iowa

  • Iowa's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Jim Nussle (R) is running for governor. His district is Democratic-leaning, and of the open seats so far is probably the most likely to change hands. It contains most of northeastern Iowa including large cities such as Dubuque, the Quad Cities and Waterloo. Wealthy businessman Mike Whalen won the Republican nomination in a mild surprise by emphasizing border security, while attorney Bruce Braley is the Democratic nominee. Nussle was reelected in 2000 and 2004 with 55% of the vote but Al Gore and John Kerry won the district in those same years, signaling that the open seat will be very competitive come November 2006. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up.
  • Iowa's 2nd congressional district- Incumbent Jim Leach (R) received 59% of the vote in 2004. Leach is consistently among the most liberal Republicans in the House, representing what is widely considered to be Iowa's most Democratic district. Democrat David Loebsack will challenge him in 2006. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.
  • Iowa's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Leonard Boswell (D) won a closer than expected 2004 reelection in a district containing Des Moines and its surrounding areas. Republican state Senate President Jeff Lamberti is challenging Boswell and is well-funded. Boswell's age (70), severe health problems and his breaking a term-limit pledge, made when he first ran for office, could factor into the race. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic.

Kansas

  • Kansas's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Dennis Moore (D) won reelection in 2004 with 54% of the vote, but this Kansas City-based district nearly ousted him in 2000 and 2002 and also voted overwhelmingly for George W. Bush. Banker Chuck Ahner will challenge Moore in 2006 after winning a competitive primary comfortably and an upset is possible in this Republican-leaning, independent-minded district. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic.

Kentucky

  • Kentucky's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Ron Lewis (R) is seeking a sixth full term (seventh total) in this west-central Kentucky district. This district is conservative and Lewis has had no trouble winning reelection. But when first elected, he had promised to serve only six terms. He is being challenged by state Representative Mike Weaver (politician), whose background in business and Veteran of two wars statues make it hard to portray him as a liberal. However, Weaver's fundraising has been disappointing. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.
  • Kentucky's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Anne Northup (R) is a target for the Democrats every election; in 2004 and 2000, John Kerry and Al Gore both won her congressional district by two percent. While Northup has generally run close races, she won 60% of the vote in 2004 against a highly touted opponent. Redistricting after the 2000 census added a few more Republicans to the district, according to Congressional Quarterly. The Democratic candidate this year is John Yarmuth, the founder of local free publication the LEO. Democrats claim this race is winnable, but Yarmouth's liberal views and articles give Northup plenty of material for negative ads. See the article on the district for more on the race. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.
  • Kentucky's 4th congressional district— First-term incumbent Geoff Davis (R) is being challenged by USAF Major Ken Lucas-D, who held the seat from 1999 to 2005. Lucas defeated Davis 51% to 48% in 2002, and retired in 2004, adhering to a pledge of serving only three consecutive terms in the House. Lucas was among the most conservative Democrats in Congress and remains well-known in the district. Recently, CQ updated its rating again, this time to "Toss-Up," meaning the race could go either way. In late July the Washington Post also rated the race as a toss-up.[13] A SurveyUSA poll released on July 25, 2006 showed Lucas leading 50% to 41%. [14] Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up.

Louisiana

The primary is on November 7, 2006.

  • Louisiana's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Congressman William Jefferson (D) has been under intense investigation and the FBI has claimed that it has videotaped him accepting $100,000 in bribes. The police also found money in Jefferson's freezer that was hidden amidst frozen food products. Jefferson has also been stripped of his membership in the Ways and Means Committee as a result of this scandal. While it is virtually unlikely this district will switch to the Republican Party, there is a strong possibility of a primary race here. The seat is located in heavily Democratic New Orleans. No Republican has represented this district since Reconstruction. So far, only Republican lawyer Joe Lavigne has officially entered the race against Jefferson. There is some discussion over the possibility of a primary challenge to Jefferson's candidacy from other Democrats. While none have officially entered the race yet, likely challengers include State Representative Karen Carter and State Senator Derrick Shepherd. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic.
  • Louisiana's 3rd congressional district— In a December 2004 runoff, now-incumbent Charlie Melancon (D) squeaked into Congress by 569 votes over Billy Tauzin III, the son and namesake of his popular predecessor. His is a swing district in southeast Louisiana, which may make him vulnerable. However, Louisiana's unique open primary voting system (where everyone runs against everyone else, regardless of party affiliation, and if no one takes 50% then the top two enter a runoff) leaves everything subject to speculation. A potential wild card is the effect of comments made by House Speaker Dennis Hastert in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, in which he publicly questioned whether the federal government should rebuild much of the city of New Orleans. The backlash from his comments, and from the general perception of a less-than-effective response by the Republican administration, could benefit Democrats in the state. However, many voters (particularly African-Americans and the poor, two strongly Democratic demographics) have moved elsewhere while the cleanup commences, and it's unclear how many of them will return. Melancon is facing state Senator Craig Romero (R), who finished a close third in the 2004 open primary. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic.
  • Louisiana's 7th congressional district— Incumbent Charles Boustany (R) won 55% to 45% in the December 2004 runoff, and should be a good bet for reelection in his relatively conservative Southwest Louisiana district. He got a break when Chris John, the Democrat who represented this district from 1997 until his Senate run in 2004, decided not to run again. Boustany is likely to be opposed by attorney Hunter Lundy of Lake Charles, who lost to Chris John in the 1996 runoff.

The Louisiana races, especially those in the southern portion of the state, will all be impacted to some extent as a result of Hurricane Katrina, as well as Hurricane Rita, both of which have caused massive damage within Louisiana. For example, most of New Orleans' majority African-American communities have been displaced by Katrina, which in addition to the William Jefferson bribery scandal could result in a higher Republican turnout in New Orleans. Also, several Southwestern Louisiana communities that were heavily damaged or destroyed in Rita could also be a factor in voter turnout, given the possibility of how many residents in that region moved elsewhere. It should also be noted that Democratic Governor Kathleen Blanco is unpopular at this moment with a -15% net approval rating according to a recent Survey USA poll.

Maryland

Main article: Maryland Congressional election, 2006

Michigan

The primary is August 8, 2006

  • Michigan's 7th congressional district— Incumbent freshman Joe Schwarz (R) won with 58% of the vote in 2004, after winning a multi-candidate Republican primary in which several conservatives divided the conservative vote. Schwarz has been criticized by the Club for Growth, which is backing his 2004 primary opponent, former state Representative Tim Walberg, Walberg has been attacking Schwarz for his liberal positions on abortion, gun control and border security.
  • Michigan's 9th congressional district— Incumbent Joe Knollenberg (R) did not have a great campaign in 2004. Though he won with 58% of the vote, this was only after he outspent his opponent (attorney Steve Reifman) by an over-10-to-1 ratio. For a 7-term incumbent, this is less than spectacular. Also, the fact that Bush barely won his district with 50% of the vote shows that it is no longer a Republican stronghold. Knollenberg is potentially vulnerable this year. First, he faces a respectable primary opponent in Oakland County School Board member Patricia Godchaux, a moderate ex-state Representative who is accusing Knollenberg of being ineffective. Radio talk host Nancy Skinner (on Air America Radio affiliate WDTW) is the Democratic challenger. Skinner has raised a considerable amount of money compared to the other candidates in this race. She has been endorsed by the UAW, AFL-CIO and NOW. Skinner had previously lived in Illinois and graciously conceded to Barack Obama in the Illinois State Senate primary.

Minnesota

The primary is September 12, 2006.

  • Minnesota's 1st congressional district- Incumbent Gil Gutknecht (R) was reelected with 60% of the vote in 2004. A member of the 1994 Republican Revolution, Gutknecht promised not to run for a seventh term when first elected, a broken promise which could backfire on Gutknecht. Geography teacher Tim Walz is the Democratic nominee. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.
  • Minnesota's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent John Kline (R) was reelected in 2004 due to the collapse of his challenger's campaign, winning by a margin of 57% to 40%. Things were expected to be very different in 2006. whistleblower and Former FBI Agent Coleen Rowley, who accused the bureau of mishandling pre-9/11 intelligence, is running as a Democrat, and her presence initially garnered media attention. The 2nd district, south of the Twin Cities, leans Republican but is not out of reach for a Democrat (it was held by Democrat Bill Luther from 1995 until redistricting caused his defeat by Kline in 2002). However, Rowley's credibility was damaged when her campaign website showed an image of Kline's face imposed on Colonel Klink from Hogan's Heroes. After widespread criticism, she publicly apologized. Partly as a result, Republicans are becoming more confident about this race.
  • Minnesota's 5th congressional district— Incumbent Martin Sabo (D) is retiring after 26 years in the House. He won reelection with 70% of the vote in 2004 in a district that went for John Kerry by 71%. It is strongly Democratic and no one expects it to change hands. The state Democratic Party has endorsed state Representative Keith Ellison, while Sabo has endorsed his Chief of Staff, Mike Erlandson. Incidentally, Ellison is a Muslim and if elected, would be the first Muslim to serve in Congress. While the Republicans have said they will contest the seat by running a "fun, spirited campaign", they have openly admitted doubts that they will capture it in the Democratic stronghold of Minneapolis.[15]
  • Minnesota's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Mark Kennedy (R) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Mark Dayton. The sixth district is located in the northern suburbs of St. Paul and Minneapolis and extending northwest to St. Cloud. The Independence Party of Minnesota candidate for the House seat is student and political newcomer John Binkowski, a longtime resident of St. Mary's Point. The Republican nominee for the House seat is State Senator Michele Bachmann, an outspoken social conservative. Patty Wetterling, who mustered 46% against Kennedy as the Democratic candidate in 2004, is the Democratic nominee again. She originally stated her intent to make a second try for the House seat; then campaigned for the United States Senate instead; upon abruptly dropping out of the Senate race, she re-launched a second campaign for the Sixth District House seat. At the party's nominating convention she defeated former Blaine mayor Elwyn Tinklenberg who is also a former minister opposed to abortion and gun control. Tinklenberg had entered the race only after receiving Wetterling's assurance that she would not be running, and he was supported by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which considered him to be more electable due to his moderate views. Now the liberal Watterling has to win over Tinklenberg's former supporters, some of whom are angry about her going back on her word. The northern Twin Cities suburbs that dominate the Sixth District are understood to have been the politically quirky heart of Jesse Ventura's success at the expense of the two major parties. This district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.
  • Minnesota's 8th congressional district— Sixteen Term Incumbent Jim Oberstar (D) has had little trouble for re-election ever since he's won his first term, and while the district has been relatively safe and hasn't had a Republican represent it since 1947, Oberstar faces a potential challenge from former Republican U.S. Senator Rod Grams and centrist/moderate candidate Harry Welty. Mr. Welty is running under the Unity party as an independent after being inspired by the unity08 political movement.

Mississippi

  • Mississippi's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Bennie Thompson (D) successfully faced an aggressive primary challenge from state Representative Chuck Espy, nephew of former Congressman and Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy, and won with 65% of the vote. In the general election, he is being challenged by Republican Tchula [16] Mayor Yvonne Brown. Both Espy and Brown have criticized Thompson for leaving the House Agriculture Committee. The district is over three-fifths African-American and solidly Democratic, though Republicans occasionally win local elections in the area.

Montana

  • Montana's at-large congressional district– Although incumbent Dennis Rehberg (R) won with 64% of the vote in 2004 and is generally popular, he is considered to be potentially vulnerable due to Montana having swung over to the Democratic Party in 2004, electing Brian Schweitzer as Governor as well handing control of the State Legislature over to the Democrats. Rehberg also has to contend with the fact that Republican Senator Conrad Burns is facing an extremely tough re-election race. Rehberg's November opponent will be respectably-funded State Representative Monica Lindeen. Libertarian Mike Fellows has also qualified.

Nebraska

  • Nebraska's 1st congressional district— Republican incumbent Jeff Fortenberry won his first term in 2004 with 54% of the vote in the wake of the retirement of moderate and popular Republican congressman Doug Bereuter who was very critical of the religious right's growing influence on the party. Fortenberry is much more conservative than his predecessor, echoed by the fact that he won a relatively small margin of victory in a district that previously sent Bereuter to Congress by margins of 60%–65% and reelected George W. Bush by 66% in 2004. A Green Party activist drew away a full 3% of the vote last time, and Democrats are mobilizing for another campaign. Democrat and former Nebraska Lieutenant Governor Maxine Moul filed papers in January 2006 and will face Fortenberry in November.[12]

Nevada

  • Nevada's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Jim Gibbons (R) is running for governor. In 2004 he was reelected with 67% of the vote. His wife, state Assemblywoman Dawn Gibbons, is running for his seat, as is Secretary of State Dean Heller and conservative state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle. The district, which encompasses the vast majority of rural Nevada, is solidly Republican (since its creation in 1983 it has never elected a Democrat to represent it). Even so, in national elections the district tends to vote for the party that is favored by the national political climate, which is trending Democratic thus far. In addition, Democratic candidate Jill Derby of northern Nevada, who has served on the University Board of Regents, has the advantage of running unopposed, while the three Republicans are engaged in a very competitive primary that will force them to spend money. According to the Reno Gazette-Journal in May 2006, polls were 30% for Derby, 35% for Dawn Gibbons (wife of the current Congressman Jim Gibbons) and 35% undecided.[17] Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.

New Hampshire

The primary is on September 12, 2006.

  • New Hamsphire's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Charles Bass (R) is in a state that is trending towards the Democratic Party, in the 2004 Presidential race the Democrats managed to win New Hampshire's electoral votes as well as capture a highly contested Governor's Mansion. Bass remains popular, however, winning reelection in 2004 with 58% percent of the vote while his district was won by John Kerry 52% to 47%. Bass is a self-described political moderate, and is being challenged in the primary by Berlin Mayor Bob Danderson, who stands out in contrast to some of Bass's more liberal views, such as opposition to drilling for oil in ANWR. The likely Democratic nominee is the 2004 challenger Paul Hodes, an attorney. A UNH poll from May 4, 2006 shows Hodes a lot closer to Bass than expected, 35% to Bass' 42%. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.

New Jersey

  • New Jersey's 3rd congressional district— Jim Saxton (R) won with 63% of the vote in 2004 in a district that George W.Bush carried by a 167,254 -159,041 plurality over John Kerry. Democrats thought in 2000 they had a tough opponent for Saxton in Cherry Hill (the district's largest community) Mayor Susan Bass Levin who raised and spent substantially, but Saxton won by 58% Despite his easy re-election in 2000, some Democrats think Saxton has never faced any strong competition. Some also consider his views ultra-conservative and believe the district is trending Democratic, which could make his chances of re-election tougher. Republicans, however, believe he is a strong candidate, as Ocean County was carried handily by Bush and losing GOP gubernatorial candidate Doug Forrester. The district runs from the central shore of New Jersey through Burlington County and into the Philadelphia suburbs. Running on the Democratic side is Rich Sexton, an Attorney, a 20 Year Veteran and Officer in the Navy, and a Fighting Dem.
  • New Jersey's 5th congressional district— Scott Garrett (R) won with 58% of the vote against an underfunded Anne Wolfe in 2004 in what is normally a Republican district. His strongly conservative views have also been the subject of some controversy. Garret was one of only a few Republicans to vote against the emergency aid to Hurricane Katrina victims. Democrat Paul Aronsohn is planning to challenge Garrett and with more support from the Democrats as well as several towns within the district won by Corzine in the governor's race, this could be a pickup opportunity. Garrett is likely also to face questions about why he opposed renewing the Voting Rights Act and other controversial votes he made. This district gave George W. Bush a 184,530- 137,019 pluraility over John Kerry in 2004 and the district was one of two New Jersey districts carried by Bob Dole in 1996 when he was crushed in the Garden State.
  • New Jersey's 7th congressional district— Mike Ferguson (R) won with 57% of the vote in the 2004 election against Stephen Brozak. His recent perceived opposition to the "morning after pill"[18] may become an issue for him in a district that is supportive of social moderates like Thomas Kean, Jr., a local state senator who is running for US Senate this year against Bob Menendez. This district voted for Bush by 1 point in 2000 and his plurality increased to a 164,176-144,767 margin in 2004, however. Three term State Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D) is challenging Ferguson in 2006. She has received endorsements from a number of Liberal groups and may benefit from her active internet campaign. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.
  • New Jersey's 13th congressional district— Incumbent Bob Menendez (D) was appointed to the U.S. Senate by Governor-elect Jon Corzine, leaving his House seat vacant. The district, situated between New York City and Newark and includes Bayonne, Jersey City, West New York, and Hoboken, is heavily Democratic. State Assembly Speaker Albio Sires easily won the Democratic primary and faces Republican community activist John Guarini in the general election. Ironically, Sires started his political career as a Republican and protoge of former Governor Thomas Kean, while Guarini is the son of former Democratic Congressman Frank Guarini, Menendez's predecessor in Congress. Sires has said that he would be willing to consider drilling in the ANWR to help reduce oil and gasoline prices.

The recent budget disaster and Governor Jon Corzine's tax and budget proposals have not been well received. [19] Corzine, a former U.S. Senator, has negative net approval ratings in the double digits according to recent polls, including -19% in a recent Survey USA poll, which could prove beneficial to Republicans.

New Mexico

  • New Mexico's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Heather Wilson (R) has routinely managed difficult reelections since 1998, winning in 2004 by a 55% to 45% margin. But in 2006 she will face Democrat Patricia Madrid, New Mexico's Attorney General, who is barred from seeking a third term in that position. Madrid will undoubtedly be a stronger and more recognized candidate than previous challengers to Wilson and is also well-funded. The district, centered in Albuquerque, is very competitive; it was narrowly won by Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up.

New York

The primary is on September 12, 2006.

  • New York's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Peter King (R) was elected for his sixth term by a healthy margin in 2004, 63% to 37%, however King is the only Republican congressman left on Long Island, where Republicans once were the majority party. Although King has broken with his party on a few key issues, he is potentially vulnerable in a district that is increasingly moderate to liberal. Nassau County Legislator Dave Mejias announced his candidacy on May 25 [20] and will be King's strongest opponent in years.
  • New York's 13th congressional district- Since easily winning a special election in 1997, Republican incumbent Vito Fossella had long been reelected without trouble in this district, based in Staten Island and the Bay Ridge section of Brooklyn. But in 2004, his share of the vote dropped dramatically against an underfunded opponent. This caught the attention of Democrats, who are now making this race a priority. Lawyer and Bay Ridge community leader Steve Harrison [22] is the Democratic candidate. A recent New York Daily News[23]weeklong expose on alleged Fossella campaign finance and constituent mailing rule violations should help Harrison in what has long been a Republican stronghold despite having more registered Democrats than Republicans. However, many of the registered Democrats are Democrats In Name Only (DINOS)who generally vote Republican. Fossella is the only Republican in New York City's Congressional delegation.
  • New York's 19th congressional district- Incumbent Sue Kelly (R) has rarely faced stiff competition since her initial election in 1994, but she has drawn six Democratic challengers this year. They include ex-Republican Judith Aydelott, former Orleans singer/songwriter John Hall, Yorktown councilman Jim Martorano, fundraiser/consultant Darren Rigger, Ben Shuldiner (2005's Jefferson Award recipient as the Greatest Public Servant in America under the age of 35), and high school principal Gary Suraci. The 19th is an increasingly-Democratic distict, and Democrats were extremely successful in town and county election in November 2005. Bush did narrowly carry the district in 2004, however. As of the last FEC filing, Aydelott was the leading fundraiser with Shuldiner in second. In May and June, the Democratic party in each of the five counties that have segments within the district held nominating conventions. Hall won his home county (Dutchess) as well as Orange and Rockland, while Rigger won the Putnam nomination and Martorano took the Westchester nod. As a result, there remains no clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.
  • New York's 20th congressional district— Incumbent John E. Sweeney (R) has never really had any election troubles up until now. Sweeney has faced controversy over his reportedly drunken appearance at a registered party at a fraternity at Union College on April 22, 2006; over a remark he made about his Democratic opponent, Kirsten Gillibrand, saying that she was "a pretty face"; and over a January 2006 all-expenses paid weekend with family, friends, staff, and lobbyists at Lake Placid, New York. This rural and suburban district is among the more Republican in the Northeast, however, and Sweeney is not a strong conservative. A June Zogby poll published in the Albany Times-Union showed Sweeney holding a 51% to 27% lead over Gillibrand. Libertarian Eric Sundwall and Liberal Party candidate Morris Guller are also challenging Sweeney. (For more details, see New York 20th congressional district election, 2006) Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.
  • New York's 24th congressional district— Incumbent Sherwood Boehlert (R) has announced his retirement after twenty-four years, making this a seat of considerable focus for the democrats in the follow up to the mid terms. Boehlert is considered a moderate republican, and the district is considered to be a swing district. George Bush won this district by 53% in the 2004 election, but by 3,000 votes, in the 2000 presidential election. The likely Republican nominee will be state Senator Ray Meier, while the likely Democratic nominee will be Oneida County District Attorney Mike Arcuri, but both face primary opponents. [24] Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.
  • New York's 25th congressional district— Incumbent James T. Walsh (R), ran unopposed in 2004 and while the Syracuse-based district hasn't had a Democrat represent it since 1971, John Kerry won the district in 2004 by 2.5% points. Thus, Walsh had the dubious distinction of being the only Republican to win unopposed and not have George W. Bush win his district. Democrats are fielding at least two candidates in the Sept. 12 primary: former congressional aide Dan Maffei and lawyer Paloma Capanna. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.
  • New York's 26th congressional district— Incumbent Tom Reynolds (R), the National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman, faces a rematch with local industrialist and Veteran Jack Davis in the 26th District. While the district leans substantially Republican, Reynolds was held to 55% of the vote in 2004 by political neophyte Davis who has used the intervening time to build a political base. He will campaign on Reynolds' support of free-trade which he claims has cost the district thousands of well-paying jobs. Reynolds is one of the Republican party's premiere fund-raisers and Davis is independently wealthy promising that this will be an expensive campaign
  • New York's 29th congressional district— Freshman incumbent Randy Kuhl (R) Kuhl was elected with 50% in a three way race in 2004. He faces a potentially strong challenge from former Navy Officer Eric Massa who is a long-time friend of 2004 presidential candidate Gen. Wesley Clark. Massa has been an extremely adept fundraiser and has become a darling of the netroots with numerous favorable articles on popular progressive weblogs such as dailykos.com and mydd.com. In March, President Bush visited the district, in part as a boost to Kuhl's re-election campaign. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.

Two factors impact all New York races. First, Eliot Spitzer and Hillary Clinton are prohibitive favorites to win easy statewide victories for Governor and Senator. This should help Democrats. Offsetting this is the congressional map. The 2002 reapportionment was perceived by many to be a bipartisan incumbent protection plan. Many of the Republican-held seats gave George W. Bush a plurality in the 2000 election, when he lost statewide by a a 25% margin.

North Carolina

  • North Carolina's 8th congressional district— Robin Hayes (R) was elected for a fourth term in 2004 by a 56% to 44% vote. His opponent, Beth Troutman, was a production assistant on the TV show The West Wing with no prior experience in office and with only a tiny fraction of the funding Hayes had. For a three-term Republican incumbent with substantial funding, in a Republican-leaning district against such an opponent, 56% is a less than spectacular margin. The district consists of a large portion of southern North Carolina east of Charlotte. Democrats have made an issue of Hayes' vote in favor of CAFTA, which was seen as threatening to the area's textile industry. Hayes' vote came after his stating he was "flat-out, completely, horizontally opposed" to the bill and pressure by the Bush administration. Hayes also received the second largest amount of money among all Congressional candidates from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC. Hayes has refused to return the $47,000 he received from the former House Majority Leader's political action committee, despite calls from Democrats to do so. He faces Larry Kissell, a school teacher from Biscoe, NC, who is running a largely grassroots campaign

North Dakota

  • North Dakota's at-large congressional district— Incumbent Earl Pomeroy (D) has won reelection by varying margins against widely differing opponents since his first election in 1992. In 2002, he had his toughest race ever, winning by winning by 52% to 48% against then-state Tax Commissioner Rick Clayburgh who is now an Associate Justice on the North Dakota Supreme Court. In 2004, he was reelected with little trouble. This year, he will be challenged by farmer Matt Mechtela, a former President of the North Dakota Soybean Council. Pomeroy is favored to win again, though he is not assured of reelection. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic.

Ohio

  • Ohio's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Jean Schmidt (R) was elected by special election to replace the seat vacated by Congressman Rob Portman. She narrowly defeated Democrat Paul Hackett in a largely Republican district. Recent June 2006 polling conducted by Momentum Analysis shows Congresswoman Schmidt tied at 44% with Democratic challenger Dr. Victoria Wulsin. The same poll also showed Wulsin leading Schmidt in Hamilton County, the largest county of the district, by a margin of 50% to 37%. Many have stated that this polling is a surprise but could be the result of press coverage regarding Congresswoman Schmidt's November 2005 House floor remarks about Congressman John Murtha (D-PA). Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.
  • Ohio's 3rd congressional district-Incumbent Mike Turner (R) may be vulnerable as Kerry lost the district by only 5 points in 2004. The majority of the district population is in Montgomery County whose county seat is Dayton. The county has been becoming increasingly democratic.Turner will face Democrat Stephanie Studebaker in November.
  • Ohio's 4th congressional district— Incumbent Michael Oxley (R) is retiring after twenty-five years. The district is located in much of northwestern Ohio and is heavily Republican, having not elected a Democrat to represent the area since 1936. Republican state Senator James D. "Jim" Jordan won the primary comfortably and is the overwhelming favorite in the general election against his poorly-financed Democratic opponent, local attorney Richard E. Siferd (D).
  • Ohio's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Ted Strickland (D) did not run for reelection; he is the Democratic nomineee for Governor of Ohio. The district, stretching across Ohio's eastern edge, from the Kentucky border to the Pennsylvania border, is marginal and should be highly competitive. Both parties' choices have been damaged by self-inflicted blunders. Republican state House Speaker Pro Tempore Chuck Blasdel failed to pay property taxes on two defunct businesses he once owned, while Democratic state Senator Charlie Wilson was embarrassed after failing to submit the 50 valid signatures for his ballot petition, and had to wage a costly write-in campaign to be his party's nominee.[14] But Wilson made a major comeback when his write-in campaign earned him 67% of the vote in the primary. Bladsel won 49% in a three-way primary. Wilson is now the front-runner in the general election, though not a shoo-in. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic.
  • Ohio's 13th congressional district— Incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) did not run for reelection; he is the Democratic nomineee against incumbent Republican Senator Mike DeWine. Brown's district, in the Lorain/Akron area, is heavily blue-collar and has a strong pro-labor Democratic tilt. However, Republicans appear to have scored a recruiting coup with the candidacy of Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin, a popular figure in a city that gave George W. Bush only 27% of the vote. Normally, Democrats would have very little trouble holding this district. But Foltin's personal base in a Democratic stronghold gives Republicans a glimmer of hope. Republican hopes stemmed in part on dividing the Democratic vote by getting an Independent candidate, Tracy Kennedy, to run. The Republican Chairman for the city of Lorain, David Arredondo, circulated petitions to get her on the ballot. Local Republicans are hoping on capitalizing on the popularity of Foltin in Lorain and their attempt to split the Democratic vote with the introduction of an independent candidate. Former state Representative Betty Sutton is the Democratic nominee and while she generates little excitement, she is a very viable contender. However, she won only after a very nasty multi-candidate primary and one of her defeated opponents, former Congressman Tom Sawyer, has not only refused to endorse her but filed a campaign finance violation complaint with the Federal Election Commission. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic.
  • Ohio's 14th congressional district- This district contains much of the northeastern Cleveland suburbs. Imcubent Steven C. LaTourette has won pretty good margins in the past. However Kerry almost won the district with 47% of the vote. The democratic canditdate Lewis Katz may be a strong challenger.
  • Ohio's 15th congressional district— This district takes in much of Columbus, and Deborah Pryce (R), Chair of the Congressional Republican Conference, has been reelected without incident for over a decade. But the toxic unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft and perhaps Pryce's close ties to the Republican leadership give Democrats a potential opening. She is being challenged by Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy, possibly her strongest opponent to date. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.
  • Ohio's 18th congressional district— Though incumbent Robert W. Ney (R) has continuously won this district since 1994, his ethics record, particularly involvement with the Jack Abramoff's scandal, led him to withdraw from the race in early August, 2006.[26] Zack Space, a popular figure from Dover was a surprise winner for the Democratic nomination. Ney has reportedly asked Ohio state Senator Joy Padgett to run in his place. Located in southeastern Ohio and including St. Clairsville and Zanesville, this district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so. In the most recent poll, which was conducted before Ney's withdrawal, Space was leading Ney by a small margin, though the effect of Ney's withdrawal from the race is undetermined. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up.

The Ohio races will all be impacted to some extent by the astonishing unpopularity of outgoing Republican Governor Bob Taft, who faced numerous corruption scandals in recent years. It is possible other long time incumbents could be in some risk. 30 plus year 16th District incumbent Ralph Regula barely won his Republican primary in the Canton area against a newcomer, for example.

Oklahoma

Oregon

  • Oregon's 5th congressional district— Incumbent Darlene Hooley (D) for the most part has faced easy re-election every single time. In the 2004 election, Hooley won with just 53% of the vote in a district that was narrowly won by President George W. Bush by 1%. Hooley faces Republican Mike Erickson and Pacific Green Party candidate Paul Aranas. The district spans Salem and parts of Corvallis and Portland. This is considered a swing district. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic.

Pennsylvania

  • Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district— Jim Gerlach (R) won reelection by a 51% to 49% margin in 2004 and represents a very competitive district in suburban Philadelphia. Lois Murphy, who was narrowly defeated by him in 2004, is running again. Gerlach also faces questions concerning over $30,000 he has received for his campaigns from former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's ARMPAC, which has been involved in an alleged money laundering scheme. Democrats have criticized Gerlach for not returning the disputed money or donating it to charity, although he has stated that he would give the money away if DeLay is convicted. In July Gerlach opened his media campaign with a TV ad criticising President Bush's immigration proposals. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up.
  • Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district— Curt Weldon (R) won reelection with 59% of the vote in 2004, but represents a Democratic-leaning district that incorporates much of Democratic-leaning Delaware County in suburban Philadelphia. He is facing retired 3-Star Navy Admiral Joe Sestak(D). Weldon caused controversy while campaigning when he questioned Sestak's dedication to living in the district because his family lives in the Washington suburbs and he did not send his daughter to a Pennsylvania hospital for clinical treatment. Sestak denounced Weldon for his statement in light of the fact that his four-year-old daughter is suffering from a malignant brain tumor and even Weldon's fellow Republicans were embarrassed by his remarks.[28] Sestak has also proven to be a capable fundraiser, which is one reason why CQPolitics, in July, changed their rating on this race from "Republican Favored" to the more competitive "Leans Republican." [29]. See Pennsylvania 7th congressional district election, 2006 Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.
  • Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district— Mike Fitzpatrick (R) won in 2004, but his district, based in suburban Bucks County, is considered politically moderate. In 2004 he defeated Democrat Virginia "Ginny" Schrader by a margin of 56% to 42%. Fitzpatrick's views, especially on abortion, are more conservative than those of most people in the Philadelphia suburbs, and that may be an issue for him in 2006. Iraq War Veteran (82nd Airborne Division) Patrick Murphy won the Democratic primary in May and is already getting more support from the national Democratic Party than Schrader did in 2004. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.
  • Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district— Don Sherwood (R) has strong backing as a result of redistricting, and he won reelection without opposition in 2002 and 2004, but recently was involved in an affair and physical abuse scandal with Cynthia Ore which brought on a $5.5 million lawsuit. On November 8, 2005 the two settled out of court for an undisclosed amount. He was expected to win the Republican primary easily over teacher Kathy Scott, as she had very little money or campaign staff, but she polled a surprising 44% of the vote against him. His critics claim this is proof of weakness and that professor and Naval Reserve Officer Chris Carney, his Democratic opponent, has a shot at winning in November. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.
  • Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district— Longtime incumbent John Murtha has long been reelected due to his moderate record and funding of local projects (citation needed). But this year, he faces perhaps the toughest race of his career. His high-profile opposition to the Iraq War and numerous appearances on national news networks has generated opposition. Washington County Commissioner Diana Irey (R) claims to have gotten money from all over the country. Commissioner Irey has stated that Murtha "defamed" American troops serving overseas with his accusations of US marines killing innocent civilians in Haditha during an investigation by the Naval Criminal Investigative Service. As of August 2, 2006, Staff Sgt. Frank Wuterich filed a law suit against Congressman John Murtha for character defamation during an ongoing investigation into the Haditha incident though Pentagon investegators support what Murtha said. Unlike the suburban Philadelphia districts, Governor Ed Rendell is not a popular figure in rural western PA, much of which he lost in 2002. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democrat.

South Carolina

  • South Carolina's 5th congressional district— John Spratt (D) is a twelve-term Democrat in an increasingly Republican district. George W. Bush increased his margin of victory in 2004 in the district from 55% to 57%, and Spratt in the past is known to have felt the heat of some very close races (52% in 1994, 56% in 1996). However, of late, he has only faced marginal Republican opposition. This year he is facing popular conservative state Representative Ralph Norman. Norman has been successful in fundraising and will mount a full scale campaign in the fall. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic.

South Dakota

  • South Dakota's at-large congressional district- Incumbent Stephanie Herseth (D) was elected in 2004 with 53% of the vote in competitive and staunchly Republican South Dakota, part of an election season that also culminated in the defeat of then-Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle by Senator John Thune. An independent voice, Herseth is opposed to gun control and same-sex marriage, but supports abortion. Republican Bruce Whalen will challenge her in 2006. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic.

Tennessee

The primary is on August 3, 2006.

  • Tennessee's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Bill Jenkins (R) is retiring after five terms in office. The district, located in eastern Tennessee, is considered to be a very safe Republican seat considering that George W. Bush won 68% of the vote in 2004 and that it has been held by a Republican (except for two terms in the 1870s) since the 1860s. Conservative state Representative David Davis of Johnson City, very narrowly edged Sullivan County Mayor Richard Venable in a crowded, multi-candidate primary and is the overwhelming favorite win win the general electionl.
  • Tennessee's 9th congressional district— Incumbent Harold Ford Jr. (D) is vacating his ninth district seat to run for the open Senate seat held by retiring Republican Bill Frist. Based in the heavily African-American Democratic stronghold of Memphis, it has elected only African-Americans since 1974. The Democratic nominee is state Senator Steve Cohen, a white Jewish liberal who won a fifteen-candidate primary with 31%. He is heavily favored to win the general election.

Texas

  • Texas's 10th congressional district— Incumbent freshman Michael McCaul (R-Austin) will face 2004 Libertarian presidential nominee Michael Badnarik. Vietnam veteran Ted Ankrum of Houston is running as the Democratic nominee. McCaul was elected with no Democratic opposition in 2004, when the Libertarian candidate captured 15% of the vote. (It should be noted that no Libertarian candidate in the state has received more than 4% when running against candidates of both major parties.) The 10th district spans a huge swath of southeast and central Texas from eastern Austin to Harris County west of Houston.
  • Texas's 15th congressional district— Incumbent Rubén Hinojosa (D) was reelected in 2004 with less than 58% of the vote. Hinojosa's district was recently affected by a court ruling that declared the 23rd District unconstitutional, resulting a redraw of five Texas congressional districts, including this one. This year, Hinojosa is slated to face Republican attorney and pro-life activist Paul Haring, who previously served as a Texas State Representative. Before the controversial 2003 redistricting, Hinojosa won his district unopposed in 2002. However, in 2004, Hinojosa won nearly 70% of Hidalgo County and over 86% of Brooks County, while losing several rural northern counties, including Bastrop, Colorado, Fayette, and Lavaca counties.
  • Texas's 17th congressional district— Incumbent Chet Edwards (D) won reelection by a 51% to 48% margin in 2004 after the 2003 Texas redistricting changed his exurban Central Texas district substantially and made it more Republican. He won despite the fact that Bush won the district by a whopping 40% margin. His district includes Waco and Crawford, the location of George W. Bush's ranch. In 2004, Edwards was helped by the fact that his opponent, then-state Representative Arlene Wohlgemuth, was nominated only after a nasty, expensive primary. In 2006, he is being challenged by Van Taylor, an attorney and Iraq War veteran from a locally prominent family. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic.
  • Texas's 21st congressional district— Incumbent Lamar S. Smith (R) who is best known for his reportedly lavish style of living, ties to Karl Rove, support for government surveillance. and for saying "Liberals can easily and accurately be painted as opposing enforcement."[30] In the 2006 election Smith will face Veteran and college administrator John Courage (D)[31] Smith has previously had no problem holding this Republican seat since the 1980's, though. The district was left largely unaffacted by a recent court ruling that declared the nearby 23rd District unconstitutional as the August 4 federal court remap left this district largely intact.
  • Texas's 22nd congressional district— Retiring Incumbent Tom DeLay (R) had been facing mounting ethical challenges and corruption charges through 2005 and early 2006. He won reelection by a surprisingly small 55% to 41% margin in 2004, even though George W. Bush carried the suburban Houston district, which includes several heavily Republican areas such as Sugar Land, Clear Lake City, and portions of Pasadena and Pearland, with 64% of the vote. On September 28, 2005, DeLay was indicted by a grand jury in Travis County, Texas. On March 7, 2006, Delay won a 4-way Republican primary for his district with only 62% of the vote. As a result of these challenges, he felt forced to step down from his post as House Majority Leader. In announcing his plans to resign and abandon reelection, Delay noted his poor poll showing and the constant criticisms he was expecting. As Texas law generally prohibits replacement of a party nominee who withdraws but permits replacement of one who is ineligible, Delay announced that he was moving to Virginia to make himself ineligible for reelection. "Those polls showed him beating Democrat Nick Lampson in the general election but in a race that would be too close for comfort," DeLay said. [32] [33].The Republican hold on district will face a strong challenge from former Rep. Nick Lampson, a Democrat whose district was dismantled during the 2003 mid-decade redistricting engineered by DeLay. Lampson's former district contained much of the eastern area of DeLay's present district. The Libertarian nominee is Bob Smither. Former Rep. Steve Stockman, a conservative Republican who was ousted by Lampson in a controversial 1996 election runoff resulting from a racial gerrymander in the nearby 18th District, was planning to run for the seat as an independent, but failed to obtain enough valid signatures to be placed on the ballot. On June 9, 2006, DeLay officially resigned, vacating the district's House seat; a special election is possible, but Governor Rick Perry appears to be planning to leave the seat vacant until the general election. The decision by Republican leaders in Fort Bend, Brazoria, Harris and Galveston counties to select a new Republican nominee to replace DeLay was blocked by a federal judge who ordered on July 5th that DeLay remain on the November ballot. However, Republicans are appealing the decision to a higher court, with Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott, who previously sent out recorded telephone messages encouraging Republicans to vote for DeLay, now calling for DeLay to be replaced on the November ballot. Following a recent straw poll conducted by Republican precinct chairs in this district, the leading candidate to replace DeLay is Sugar Land mayor David Wallace. The Fifth Circuit, however, upheld the lower court ruling, leaving DeLay still on the November ballot for the moment. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.
  • Texas's 23rd congressional district— Incumbent Henry Bonilla (R) received nearly 70% of the vote in 2004. However, his district, which includes several heavily Republican suburbs of San Antonio, as well as Big Bend National Park and much of Texas' border with Mexico, was struck down in a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that alleged the redistricting efforts of the Texas Legislature and Tom DeLay came at the expense of heavily Democratic and largely Hispanic Laredo, which was in the 23rd District until the districts were redrawn. The Democratic candidate is Vietnam War veteran Rick Bolanos, though that could change given the possibility that Bonilla could face off against incumbent Democratic congressman Henry Cuellar, who threatened Bonilla's re-election bid in 2002. On August 4, a federal court redraw this district and removed the portion of Webb County that was in the district, eliminating the posbiblity of a rematch with Cuellar, but in the process, added a heavily Democratic portion of San Antonio, the home base of former congressman Ciro Rodriguez. The realigned district is less Republican than the previous version, but Bonilla would start as the favorite. Ironically, the new district also includes the neighborhood Bonilla grew up in, including his high school, as well as the current residence of his mother, which will give Bonilla a sentimental opportunity to represent that area. New nominees must file by August 25.
  • Texas's 25th congressional district— Incumbent Lloyd Doggett (D), who previously represented the 10th District currently represented by Republican Michael McCaul until redistricting moved him into this district, won by a 2-to-1 margin in 2004. Doggett's district was one of five districts realigned as a result of a recent ruling that declared the 23rd District unconstitutional; the redrawn districts have resulted in the adding of over 150,000 residents of Democratic-leaning Travis County to Doggett's district. However, he only faces token opposition against a Libertarian candidate, and is thus assured of a safe seat. But with a special election called for all residents in this district, there is a slight possibility that an additional Republican candidate might surface.
  • Texas's 28th congressional district— Incumbent Henry Cuellar (D) won 59% of the vote in 2004. This year, he won 52% of the Democratic primary that included a strong challenge from rival Democrat Ciro Rodriguez that ensued as a result of Cuellar's moderate-to-conservative record, resulting in an endorsement from the Club For Growth, which traditionally endorses Republican candidates. Cuellar almost had to face another serious challenge, however, as a result of a Supreme Court ruling that declared the adjacent 23rd District unconstitutional, which resulted in a re-drawing of that district and surrounding ones, that would have pushed Cuellar's hometown of Laredo into the 23rd District, which could have lead to a rematch with incumbent Republican Henry Bonilla, whom Cuellar lost to by only two percentage points in 2002. However, the August 4th federal court remap left Cuellar with a safe seat and no risk of a rematch with his 2002 or 2004 opponents.

Though unlikely to be a factor, Texas elections could also be impacted by the five way Governor's race involving incumbent Republican Rick Perry, Democratic ex-Congressman Chris Bell, Libertarian sales consultant James Werner, and two high-profile independents, Republican comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn and country music singer Kinky Friedman. Perry currently leads with 40% of the vote, with Friedman, Strayhorn and Bell each grabbing around 20% apiece.

It should also be noted that the U.S. Supreme Court in July ordered the redrawing of the 23rd District in response to a redistricting lawsuit. The August 4 federal court decision will require new candidates in the 15th, 21st, 23rd, 25th and 28th district to file by August 25.

Utah

  • Utah's 2nd congressional district- Although incumbent Jim Matheson (D) won re-election in 2004 by a margin of 13%, his district is in a heavily Republican state. The district includes some Democratic areas in Utah, such has the wealthy California transplant filled Summit County [citation needed], the liberal communities of Grand County, the large Greek communities of Carbon County, the Navajos of San Juan County, and heavily Democratic Salt Lake City. Matheson is a regular target of the GOP every election. State Representative LaVar Christensen (R) of Draper, a small affluent suburb of Salt Lake City, is running in the district. However, the most circulated daily newspaper in Utah, The Salt Lake Tribune, has characterized him as too extreme for the area. For example Christensen was one of two major sponsors of a bill that amended Utah's Constitution to ban same-sex marriage, the amendment was rejected by two-thirds of Summit County, half of Grand County, and only passed by 4% in Salt Lake County, while the state as a whole averaged 66%, with the most supportive areas to banning such marriages being located in the first and third district, not the second. Matheson has approval ratings in the high 70s, the highest for any elected official in Utah. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic.
  • Utah's 3rd congressional district- Congressman Chris Cannon has represented this district for ten years, but found himself in a competitive primary, just as he had in 2004. In a campaign that focused almost exclusively on the immigration issue, Businessman John Jacob repeatedly attacked Cannon for his support for a guest worker program. In May 2006, at the state GOP convention, Jacob surprised Cannon by winning 52 percent of the delegate ballots. "Cannon’s 48 percent showing was especially poor, given that the ballots were cast mainly by the party insiders who dominate such conventions. (A Jacob victory with 60 percent would have denied Cannon the opportunity to wage a primary campaign.)" [34]. The Republican primary was held on June 27, 2006. While polls showed a close race [35], in the June Republican primary, Cannon received 32,306 votes (55.8%) and Jacob received 25,589 votes (44.2%). Cannon will face Democrat Christian Burridge, a lawyer, in November.

Vermont

  • Vermont's at-large congressional district — Incumbent Bernie Sanders (I), a self-described socialist who represents the entire state of Vermont, plans to run for the Senate seat being vacated by fellow Independent Jim Jeffords. Vermont state Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Welch (D-Windsor County), the expected Democratic nominee, will face the winner of the Republican primary on September 12, 2006). Former Vermont Adjutant General Martha Rainville, Major General, USANG (ret) and Vermont State Senator Mark Shepard, (R-Bennington County) are running for the Republican nomination. Welch was helped when state Representative David Zuckerman decided not to wage a third-party campaign. Keith Stern, a businessman and zoning board member from Springfield, is running as an Independent. Jane Newton, a retired nurse, is running on the socialist Liberty Union line. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic.

Virginia

Virginia U.S. House election, 2006

Washington

Main article: Washington United States House elections, 2006
  • Washington's 2nd congressional district- Incumbent Rick Larsen (D) was reelected in 2004 with nearly two-thirds of the vote. Larsen is a centrist New Democrat whose seats on the Armed Services and Transportation & Infrastructure committees are crucial to defense- and aerospace-related jobs that comprise a large number of his constituents in this politically competitive district. The Republicans have courted a credible challenger in Operation Desert Storm veteran Doug Roulstone, the commanding officer on the aircraft carrier U.S. John C. Stennis during the war. The GOP hopes his background will prove beneficial in the district, which is home to the Naval Air Station Whidbey Island and the Naval Station Everett. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic.

West Virginia

  • West Virginia's 1st congressional district— For many years, Congressman Alan Mollohan (D) has won reelection without any difficulty, and often without major party opposition. But this year, he's come under scrutiny after it was revealed that non-profit groups who received federal earmarks sponsored by him were staffed by friends and that he may have financially benefitted from some of the earmarks. The national media has pointed out that his net worth expanded from some $630,000 to several million in a few years and his opponents are charging conflict of interest. The bad press caused his fellow Democrats to compel him to resign his position as ranking Democrat on the House Ethics Committee. He has a credible opponent in state Delegate Chris Wakim, a tavern owner and Persian Gulf War veteran. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic.
  • West Virginia's 2nd congressional district— Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito (R) has been a popular vote getter in this Charleston based district, but in traditionally Democratic West Virginia, a Republican can't take reelection for granted. In fact, her margin in 2004 slipped somewhat against a second-tier opponent. This year she faces attorney Mike Callaghan, a former state Democratic Party Chairman. Capito is well funded and popular, but with Bush's popularity not high, she can't take anything for granted.

Wisconsin

The primary is on September 12, 2006

  • Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district— This district, in southern and western Wisconsin, includes some conservative-leaning rural areas, for whom corn is a pivotal campaign issue. Incumbent Ron Kind (D) won the 2004 election by an uncomfortably modest margin of 56% to 44% against State Senator and former real estate agent Dale Schultz, as the state picked John Kerry for President. The western edge of the district is rapidly gaining population in the form of exurbs spilling over from the Twin Cities, Minnesota area. Fast-growing exurban areas are notorious for trending Republican. Kind faces a minor primary challenge from Iraq war opponent Chip DeNure. The November ballot will pit Kind against Republican Paul Nelson.
  • Wisconsin's 8th congressional district— Incumbent Mark Green (R) — Green is running for governor like many of his colleagues, and his seat, in rural northeastern Wisconsin, is Republican-leaning, though has elected a Democratic congressman as recently as 1996 and is centered around the cities of Green Bay and Appleton. State Assembly Speaker John Gard and state Assemblywoman Terri McCormick are seeking the seat as Republicans, with Gard the strong favorite; business consultant Jamie Wall, former De Pere Mayor & Brown County Executive Nancy Nusbaum, and allergist Steve Kagen are seeking the seat as Democrats. Nusbaum won name I.D. in the district as Brown County executive and De Pere mayor, while Kagen and Wall have personal wealth to fall back on. Both parties have pitfalls in this election: GOP frontrunner Gard is popular with the base, while the Democrats have only held the district for a single term since the 1980s. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.

Wyoming

  • Wyoming's at-large congressional district— Barbara Cubin (R) is running for reelection. Wyoming, generally considered one of the strongest, if not the strongest, Republican stronghold in the country, gave her a surprisingly small margin of victory in 2004 with 55% of the vote, despite George W. Bush winning Wyoming by a landslide 69% in the 2004 Presidential Election. She also had a difficult primary that year. Her Democratic opponent this year will be Teton County School Board Chairman Gary Trauner. His campaign was helped when a May 8 poll by Rasmussen Reports showed Cubin leading Trauner by only 47% to 43%, closer than even Democrats had expected. And the poll is hard to attack as it also shows Senator Craig Thomas leading his Democratic opponent by 64% to 25%. Popular Democratic incumbent Governor Dave Freudenthal is also up for reelection, though it is not known what kind of effect there will be on the state's sole Congressional election. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.

References

  1. ^ Projections based on analysis in The Politics of Congressional Elections, by Gary Jacobson
  2. ^ nytimes.com
  3. ^ "Tough path may follow Doolittle's easy victory," The Sacramento Bee, June 8, 2006
  4. ^ "Democrats say they may target Doolittle," The Sacramento Bee, May 18, 2006
  5. ^ California's 4th district primary election results
  6. ^ California's 11th district primary election results
  7. ^ [1]
  8. ^ "Some see cracks in Pombo's big House race win," The Sacramento Bee, June 8, 2006
  9. ^ "Poll Shows That If Election Were Held Today A Majority Would Vote Against Pombo," Defenders Of Wildlife Action Fund, May 10, 2006
  10. ^ foxnews.com
  11. ^ foxnews.com
  12. ^ swingstateproject.com
  13. ^ hillnews.com
  14. ^ enquirer.com

See also

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