2006 United States gubernatorial elections
The U.S. gubernatorial elections of 2006 will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2006 in 36 states with 22 of the seats held by Republicans and 14 by Democrats.
The U.S. gubernatorial elections of 2006 will coincide with the mid-term elections of the United States Senate and the United States House of Representatives.
Major parties
There are currently 28 Republican governors and 22 Democratic governors. There are 22 races in states that are currently held by Republicans, and 14 in states currently held by Democrats.
Five governors whose terms expire after 2006 are not eligible for reelection due to term limits, all of them Republicans: Mike Huckabee (AR), Bill Owens (CO), Jeb Bush (FL), Kenny Guinn (NV), and Bob Taft (OH). Add Dirk Kempthorne (ID), Mitt Romney (MA) and George Pataki (NY), who are also not running for reelection, and Mike Johanns (R-NE) who has already left to become the new Secretary of Agriculture to bring the total to nine.
Non-partisan election analyses
CQPolitics.com
CQPolitics.com, an independent, non-partisan election analysis newsletter, as of August 29, 2006, made the following analysis:
- 2 Democratic governorships and 2 Republican governorships are Safe and therefore not considered competitive.
- 7 Republican governorships are considered Republican Favored; and 3 Democratic governorships are Democratic Favored, meaning that while these races are not competitive at the moment, they could likely become competitive.
- 2 Republican governorships are considered Leans Republican and 7 Democratic seats are Leans Democratic, as they are politically competitive, yet one party has a distinct advantage.
- 1 Republican governorship is considered Democratic Favored (New York).
- 1 Republican governorship is considered Leans Democratic (Arkansas).
- 9 Republican and 2 Democratic seats are rated as No Clear Favorite -- they are Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, California, Colorado, Florida, Mass., Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, and Ohio.
- A complete chart of all races categorized appears here.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball
In early August, Sabato predicted a pro-Democratic shift of approximately five governships, and described the breakdown as follows:
- Probable D Governor pick-ups: Arkansas, Colorado, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio
- Possible D Governor pick-ups: Alaska, Maryland, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Florida
- Probable R Governor pick-ups: None
- Possible R Governor pick-ups: Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Oregon, Wisconsin
Election summaries
 | The neutrality of this section is disputed. |
In 2006, nine governorships will be open due to either retirement or term limits.
Retiring Democratic governors
Congressman Jim Nussle is the Republican nominee, while Democrats have nominated Secretary of State Chet Culver, a progressive whose father was a U.S. Senator. Polls show a close race, with Culver currently holding a narrow lead over Nussle.
Retiring Republican governors
Murkowski was one of the least popular governors when he announced that he would run again, to the mortification of his fellow Republicans. An August 8 poll by Rasmussen Reports showed that going into the primary election his approval rating was at 27%, while his disapproval rating stood at 72%. On the Republican side, former Wasilla Mayor Sarah Palin and former state Railroad Commissioner John Binkley were running against Murkowski in the Republican primary. Former governor Tony Knowles was the Democratic front runner heading into the primary and caught a break when state Representative Ethan Burkowitz dropped out of the race to be his running mate for Lieutenant Governor. In the primary held on August 22, Sarah Palin won the Republican nomination for governor with 51.1% of the vote, Binkley received 29.6% and Murkowski received just 18.9% of the vote.[1] The Democratic primary was won by Tony Knowles with 68.6% of the vote, with his nearest competitor being Eric Croft with 23.1%.[1] Because of Palin's larger-than-expected victory and Knowles losing a U.S. Senate race he was expected to win in 2004, Republicans are more confident about holding the Governorship, although the race is still competitive.
With Huckabee term-limited and possibly running for president in 2008, the race for Governor has no incumbent. Republican ex-Congressman Asa Hutchinson and Democratic state Attorney General Mike Beebe are in a competitive race to succeed him, with Beebe pulling ahead in the latest surveys.
Owens's retirement has revealed divisions among the state's Republicans. Congressman Bob Beauprez and former University of Denver President Marc Holtzman are in an increasingly nasty primary. Beauprez became the nominee when Holtzman didn't submit enough valid signatures to qualify for the ballot, but the negative attacks they exchanged haven't helped Beauprez. Democrats are running former Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter, who can't easily be portrayed as a liberal. Ritter was helped when a group of Larimer County Republicans endorsed him, including a former Congressman. The latest Mason Dixon poll shows him pulling ahead of Beauprez by a 42% to 35%[2], and the latest Survey USA poll shows Ritter ahead by 50% to 40% [3].
The contest to succeed term-limited Governor Jeb Bush is a free-for-all. On the Republican side, state Attorney General Charlie Crist and state Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher are in a hotly contested primary, with Crist the slight favorite. Among Democrats, Congressman Jim Davis of Tampa is running against state Senator Rod Smith of Alachua, with Smith gaining ground but Davis still favored.
According to July 25 Rasmussen Reports poll, Crist leads Davis 47% to 42% and leads Smith 48% to 35%. However, Davis leads Gallagher 44% to 41% but Gallagher leads Smith 45% to 40%. [4]
After the primary on September 5, the winner of their respective party's bid will still have to contend with one Reform Party candidate Max Linn and seven write-in candidates, Atlee Yarrow, Piotr Blass, C.C. Reed, Papa-Roqui Maneiro, Omari Musa, Robert Wirengard, Richard Hansen. Several candidates who are considered WRI have started a coalition third party like activist group at Yahoo, Florida Election Times.
There are also several Non-partisan Associated candidates listed as quilified for the ballot after the primary: Karl Behm, Richard Paul Dembinsky and John Wayne Smith. The Democratic candidate who is trailing behind, Carol Castagnero has already stated publicly that if she does not win her primary she will follow Joseph Lieberman's lead and run as an independent.
Jim Risch has only been governor since May 26, but his tenure will be a short one. Risch, who had been the state's lieutenant governor, succeeded to the office when his predecessor, Dirk Kempthorne, resigned to become United States Secretary of the Interior. Before Kempthorne's appointment, Risch, a former Ada County District Attorney and state Senator, had already committed to a reelection campaign for Lieutenant Governor, which means the seat remains open.
That being said, Republican Congressman Butch Otter, a former Lieutenant Governor himself, is the strong favorite to succeed Risch. On May 23 he defeated health care administrator Dan Adamson and two other candidates in the Republican primary with 70 percent of the vote. In the general election he will face Democratic newspaper publisher Jerry Brady, who was also the Democratic nominee in 2002. Although Brady won in Ada County in 2002, he was decisively defeated by Kempthorne statewide. Most expect a similar race against Otter.
With the approval ratings of Governor Mitt Romney down and President George W. Bush's sagging poll numbers, the Massachusetts executive was expected to be a prime pick-up opportunity for Democrats. The race still leans towards that, but has become unpredictable. State Attorney General Tom Reilly was the strong front-runner in the Democratic primary, but his campaign has been inept. The primary polls being extremely close (1-2% difference between the three candidates), there is now a chance that he could lose the nomination to former Justice Department Official Deval Patrick or businessman Chris Gabrieli, who have both gained in recent polls. The Republican nominee is Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey. Healey is the kind of liberal Republican the state has elected Governor in the past five elections, but she has yet to make much of an impression. Complicating matters for both parties are the campaigns of Green-Rainbow Party candidate Grace Ross and independent candidate Christy Mihos, a former Republican and member of the state Turnpike Authority Board.
The retirement of moderate Republican Kenny Guinn created competitive primaries in both parties. The Democratic nominee is State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus and the Republicans nominee is Congressman Jim Gibbons. Gibbons has a strong base in northern Nevada due to his Congressional experience and Titus has a strong base in southern Nevada due to her legislative and educational career. CQPolitics rates this as No Clear Favorite. In July a poll by the Wall Street Journal and Zogby Interactive had Gibbons in the lead 45 percent to 40; but in late August put Titus ahead 47 to 44. [5]
So far, this race is the most likely to change hands and Democrats are very confident of victory. State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer garners overwhelming support in the general election, as high as 70% in a few polls. He faces a primary challenge by Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, who appears to be slightly more of a threat to Spitzer than his Republican opponent, but Spitzer is the resounding favorite in the primary, too. The Republican nominee is former Assemblyman John Faso. Political observers have debated how much Republican candidates in downballot races will be affected.
Reviled as both corrupt and inept, Governor Bob Taft is perhaps the most unpopular Governor in the history of Ohio. Polls show his approval rating in the vicinity of 10% to 25%, and his unpopularity cuts across every statistical category. Democrats are gleeful, as this is saddling Republican candidates in every race. In the race to succeed Taft, polls show Congressman Ted Strickland leading Secretary of State Ken Blackwell with Libertarian Bill Peirce and Green Bob Fitrakis falling under the media's radar. Blackwell is not a close ally of disgraced Governor Taft, even distancing himself from him during the primary, but Taft's unpopularity is still damaging him and other Republican candidates. Also helping Strickland is the fact that Blackwell had to survive a nasty primary against state Attorney General Jim Petro. Blackwell is African-American, and has won some African-American Democratic voters in his previous elections as state Treasurer and Secretary of State, and his ability to do so again will be a factor this year. However, those voters are in a more anti-Republican mood than in previous election cycles, and Strickland supporters remain optimistic. A possible wildcard in the race is whether retired economist Bill Peirce can gain enough traction in the media to pose an end-run threat, as he is arguably well qualified for the position. Currently, Strickland leads the way ahead at 57% with Blackwell all the way back to 32% [6].
Notable Democratic incumbents
Governor Janet Napolitano is generally popular and a formidable candidate – but not politically secure. She faces a well-known name in businessman Don Goldwater, who is related to the late Presidential candidate Barry Goldwater. The issue of illegal immigration is a huge potential plus for Goldwater, who is emphasizing it in the campaign. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows Napolitano with 55% and Goldwater at 32% [7].
Rod Blagojevich has proven to be an incredible fundraiser, and governs a relatively strong blue state. But recent opinion polling has shown that his approval rating sits at a rather dismal 44% [8]. Blagojevich initially had the advantage in the general election, leading his Republican challenger, state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka by eight percentage points in polls, although not reaching the fifty percent "safe zone" for incumbents. In March, Topinka won the GOP primary by 38% to 32% over dairy magnate Jim Oberweis. Meanwhile, a former Chicago Alderman named Edwin Eisendrath won a surprising 30% in the Democratic primary. President Bush recently attended a fundraiser for Topinka's campaign. [9] A current Rasmussen Reports poll shows Blagojevich staying at 45% and Topinka gaining 3 points to put her at 37%. [10] United States Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald is currently looking into the hiring practices of Governor Blagojevich. [11]
Sebelius, although popular in Kansas, can be considered somewhat vulnerable because she leads a state that went to George Bush 62% to 37% in 2004 and has a five out of six Republican congressional delegation. Also, Sebelius was embarrassed when her campaign was fined for violating state campaign finance laws. Her Republican opponent is state Senator Jim Barnett, a physician from Emporia who won a low-key primary with 36%. In contrast to many Republican primaries in Kansas, this one produced no hard feelings or anger between moderate and conservative factions. Nevertheless, Barnett is not well-known, and a July 17 poll by Rasmussen Reports gives Selebius a 51% to 34% lead [12]. It's believed that if Sebelius wins by a wide margin, she is a likely candidate for the U.S. Senate or perhaps national office in the future.
In February 2006, Baldacci was given a mere 41% approval rating by the voters of Maine in one poll[13]. Baldacci however has been handed a huge boost thanks to the GOP unexpectedly choosing conservative state Senator Chandler Woodcock over the more moderate state Senator Peter Mills and former Congressman Dave Emery. Democrats claim to be glad that Woodcock is the GOP nominee. However, the latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows that Baldacci ahead of Woodcock by only 45% to 43% [14] .
Michigan, like many other midwestern states, has been unable to take advantage of reported national economic and job growth. A string of plant and factory closings by big name companies such as General Motors in Granholm's state have led to growing disapproval of her among voters. A June poll by EPIC-MRA shows her Republican opponent, wealthy businessman Dick DeVos, pulling ahead of her by a 48% to 40% margin [15]. An August 10th poll by Rasmussen Reports gives Granholm a lead of 47% to 46% [16]. An August 22nd SurveyUSA poll has both tied at 47% [17].
First-term Governor John Lynch is easily one of the most popular governors in the nation, with approval ratings as high as 73%. The Republican nominee will be Jim Coburn, a single term state Representative. A May UNH poll showed Lynch polling far ahead of Coburn, who is not very well known throughout the state.
Democratic Governor Ted Kulongoski was elected in 2002 barely defeating former State Represenative Kevin Mannix. He had been polling in the 32-40% range earlier this year, however he has improved in recent opinon polling with a 44% job approval rating. [18] Kulongoski won the state's May three-candidate primary with 54%, but faces a tough general election against Republican and former Portland Public School Board member Ron Saxton. The Democrats have held the governor's mansion since 1987.
Going into 2006, Rendell's approval rating stuck at a not-so-special even 50 percent. Republicans have found a strong candidate in Lynn Swann, a former Pittsburgh Steeler, and former Lieutenant Governor Bill Scranton recently became the last contender to drop out of the Republican nomination race, eliminating the need for a costly primary. In recent years, Pennsylvania has become a hotly contested swing state, and in 2004, the state went to Democrat John Kerry by a thin 51% to 49% margin. This had been reflected in early polling showing the two in a dead heat, with only single digit percentages undecided. Both candidates have made avoidable errors. Rendell angered many when he signed a bill approving a 54 percent pay raise for state legislators (since withdrawn), while Swann has made misstatements on a few issues, including the Roe vs. Wade ruling. But Rendell appears to be recovering and is pulling away in the polls.
In 2002, Doyle was elected with only 45 percent of the vote because of an unusually strong challenge from the Libertarian party. Although his early 2006 approval rating was a mildly unfavorable 45 percent, he led both Republican challengers, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and Congressman Mark Green by six to nine points in polls; he has not been able to poll greater than fifty percent. Green got a big break when Walker dropped out of the race. And more recent polls show that Green has pulled even. Wisconsin is a swing state in the strongest sense, with George W. Bush losing the state by some 5,700 votes in 2000 and around 12,400 votes in 2004, although they haven't voted for a Republican for president since 1984, and they haven't had a Republican senator since 1993.
In 2002, Democrat Dave Freudenthal was elected by a very narrow margin in a major upset. He won in part because of the unpopularity of the term limited incumbent Republican governor, Jim Geringer. Now running for a second term, he is a solid favorite. The Republican nominee is attorney Ray Hunkins, who ran in 2002 and narrowly lost the Republican primary. Freudenthal boasts very high approval ratings, but he still is not a sure bet in this strongly Republican state. A July 2006 poll shows Freudenthal leading Hunkins 58% to 29% [19]. But Freudenthal was recently embarrassed by press reports that he steered state contracts to a pair of law firms affiliated with his wife and brother [20].
Notable Republican incumbents
In 2002, Riley beat the incumbent governor Don Siegelman by a bare margin of only 3,000 votes. After the election, he upset much of his base by pushing a state referendum to raise taxes, which was soundly defeated at the ballot box. However, he recovered when his response to Hurricane Katrina (which affected the Mobile area) drew widespread approval. His approval rating currently hovers at 52 percent. Polls show Riley ahead of Lieutenant Governor Lucy Baxley, his Democratic opponent, 55% to 35%. [21]
The movie-star turned "governator" has in recent months fallen from grace in the eyes of Californians. Schwarzenegger won a special recall election held in 2003 to replace governor Gray Davis and ran as a reformer. In November 2005, voters soundly defeated all four of Schwarzenegger's proposed government reforms. His moderate positions on abortion and stem cell research have alienated conservatives and his veto of California's gay marriage bill alienated liberals. However, in recent months he has recovered some of his early popularity. His Democratic opponent is state Treasurer Phil Angelides, who edged state Controller Steve Westly after a nasty, hugely expensive primary. Schwarzeneger remains politically vulnerable, but Angelides hasn't generated much enthusiasm. The latest poll by Rasmussen shows Schwarzeneger leading Angelides by 48%-42%. [22].
Popular GOP Governor Sonny Perdue has lost some ground in recent months. He still leads his Democratic opponent, Lieutenant Governor Mark Taylor, but the margin has slipped. However, he is helped by a generally good local economy and the fact that President George W. Bush is more popular in Georgia than elsewhere. Currently, Perdue has 53% and Taylor has 39%. [23]
Bob Ehrlich's approval rating is 48%, which suggests a close election. Against his strongest opponent, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley, Ehrlich trails by 9 points, 42% to 51%. O'Malley, who was expected to run for governor this year almost as soon as the 2002 election was over, was initially expected to be a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination, but he was challenged by Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan, who in 2005 and early 2006 showed more strength than expected, though he never closed the gap with O'Malley. However, on June 22, Duncan unexpectedly dropped out of the race, citing a recent diagnosis of clinical depression, saving Democrats from a costly and potentially divisive primary.
Pawlenty's approval rating is currently 56% [24]. In 2002, Pawlenty won the governor's mansion with only 44% of the vote, facing a strong challenge from DFL Party candidate Roger Moe and Independence Party candidate Tim Penny, a former DFLer himself. Pawlenty has been criticized by some Minnesotans for budget cuts to programs such as MinnesotaCare to balance the budget. Pawlenty faces his strongest challenge in DFLer Mike Hatch, though Hatch is forced to spend much of his current resources fending off a challenge by State Senator Becky Lourey.
When Congressman Tom Osborne, the legendary former football coach and a beloved figure among sports fan regardless of political affiliation, announced he would run for Governor, everyone assumed he would win overwhelmingly. Then-Governor Mike Johanns was term-limited, and no one of any stature would even consider a run. But when President George W. Bush appointed Johanns as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, Lieutenant Governor Dave Heineman ascended to the Governorship. To the surprise of many, Heineman decided to seek a full term. He initially trailed by a nearly three-to-one margin, and Republicans tried to get him to seek another office, but he refused. Helped by his veto of granting in-state tuition rates for illegal aliens and other issues, he rallied conservatives and came out of nowhere to upset Osborne by 50% to 44%. In the general election, he faces publishing executive David Hahn. Democrats hope that Hahn can pick up some disgruntled Osborne supporters, but the GOP primary never got bitter and Osborne has willingly endorsed Heineman.
Recent polls have shown Carcieri running even with his Democratic challenger, Lieutenant Governor Charles J. Fogarty [25], and Carcieri is a Republican governor in one of the most liberal states in the country. Also, even though quite high considering the political leanings of his state, Carcieri's approval rating is not great- 52%. Voters in Rhode Island are highly displeased with the policies of President George W. Bush and the direction of the country, and while they don't blame Carcieri, many are willing to take it out on him. Polls currently show the race as too close to call.
At the moment, Sanford does not seem particularly vulnerable, leading all of his potential opponents by double digits in polls. His approval rating is 50%, and he is a Republican in a state that went to Bush in 2004 by a seventeen percent margin. On the other hand, he's managed to get less than positive press by bringing live pigs into the South Carolina House of Representatives, where one promptly defecated on the floor. Following this and numerious budget vetoes TIME listed him as one of the worst governors in the country. Polls have shown the race becoming more competitive, with Sanford's lead over his challenger, state Senator Tommy Moore, slowly shrinking. In the GOP primary, physician Oscar Lovelace won 35% of the vote against Sanford, while Moore won a surprising 64% against Florence Mayor Frank Willis in the Democratic primary. The latest polls show Moore slowly gaining ground. A July 26 Rasmussen Reports gives Sanford a 47% to 38% lead [26].
Before January, this race would not have been considered competitive; Texas is a solidly Republican state. But challenges from two popular independents, coupled with Perry's mediocre 47% approval, have made the race interesting. Populist state Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn has decided to defect from the GOP and run against Perry, her bitter political foe, as an independent. Six weeks after the announcement of her candidacy, she moved to within single digits of Perry in polls. In addition to Perry and Strayhorn, former Congressman Chris Bell will run as the Democratic candidate, as will country singer and Texas icon Kinky Friedman as another independent. This sets up a peculiar four-way race (technically, a five-way race including the Libertarian candidate) in which only a plurality is needed to win. Three and especially four-way races tend to be very unpredictable, but pundits generally agree that no matter what the circumstances, Democrats probably do not benefit from a vote split. Perry remains the favorite, but his uninspiring approval ratings and the complicated political currents makes the race unpredictable.
List of elections
This is a complete list of states with a gubernatorial election in 2006. Key: (D) Democrat, (R) Republican, (AIP) American Independent, (Con) Conservative (NY), (C) Constitution, (G) Green, (GRP) Green-Rainbow, (L) Libertarian, (PF) Peace and Freedom, (Ref) Reform, (S) Socialist, (V) Veterans, (I) Independent
| State ↑ | Incumbent | Party | Status | Competing candidates | Market Predicted Outcome [27] | Approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Bob Riley | Republican | Running for 2nd term | Lucy Baxley (D) Loretta Nall (L) |
Republican FAVORED (91%) | 62% |
| Alaska | Frank Murkowski | Republican | Lost in primary | Sarah Palin (R) Tony Knowles (D) |
Democrat FAVORED (75%) | 19% |
| Arizona | Janet Napolitano | Democratic | Running for 2nd term | Barry Hess (L), Don Goldwater (R), Len Munsil (R) | Democrat FAVORED (94%) | 59% |
| Arkansas | Mike Huckabee | Republican | Not eligible for 3rd term | Asa Hutchinson (R) Mike Beebe (D) |
Democrat FAVORED (90%) | 57% |
| California | Arnold Schwarzenegger | Republican | Running for 1st full term | Phil Angelides (D) Peter Camejo (G) Art Olivier (L) |
Republican FAVORED (80%) | 44% |
| Colorado | Bill Owens | Republican | Not eligible for 3rd term | Bob Beauprez (R) Bill Ritter (D) |
Democrat FAVORED (81%) | 53% |
| Connecticut | Jodi Rell | Republican | Running for 1st full term | John DeStefano, Jr. (D), Dan Malloy (D) | Republican FAVORED (92%) | 70% |
| Florida | Jeb Bush | Republican | Not eligible for 3rd term | Austin Brooks (R), Charlie Crist (R), Bernie DeCastro (R), Richard Paul Dembinsky (R), Tom Gallagher (R), Toni Jennings (R), Michael W. St. Jean (R) Glenn Aldine Burkett (D), Carol Castagnero (D), John M. Crotty (D), Jim Davis (D), Roger Alan Hoover (D), Phillip J. Kennedy (D), Monroe Lee (D), Rod Smith (D) Chuck Baldwin (C), Atlee Yarrow (S) , Jack Gargan (Ref) , John Wayne Smith (L) |
Republican FAVORED (86%) | 54% |
| Georgia | Sonny Perdue | Republican | Running for 2nd term | Mark Taylor (D) | Republican FAVORED (89%) | 63% |
| Hawaii | Linda Lingle | Republican | Running for 2nd term | Randy Iwase (D), | Republican FAVORED (90%) | 66% |
| Idaho | Jim Risch | Republican | Retiring | Jerry Brady (D) C.L. "Butch" Otter (R) Marvin Richardson (C) Ted Dunlap (L) |
Republican SAFE (96%) | 53% |
| Illinois | Rod Blagojevich | Democratic | Running for 2nd term | Judy Baar Topinka (R) Rich Whitney (G) |
Democrat FAVORED (89%) | 44% |
| Iowa | Tom Vilsack | Democratic | Retiring | Chet Culver (D) Jim Nussle (R) Wendy Barth (G) |
Democrat FAVORED (75%) | 52% |
| Kansas | Kathleen Sebelius | Democratic | Running for 2nd term | Jim Barnett (R) | Democrat FAVORED (90%) | 63% |
| Maine | John Baldacci | Democratic | Running for 2nd term | Chandler Woodcock (R) Pat LaMarche (G), Bobby Mills (V), 8 Independents |
Democrat FAVORED (79%) | 45% |
| Maryland | Robert Ehrlich | Republican | Running for 2nd term | Martin J. O'Malley (D) | Democrat FAVORED (77%) | 52% |
| Massachusetts | Mitt Romney | Republican | Retiring | Kerry Healey (R) Chris Gabrieli (D), Deval Patrick (D), Tom Reilly (D) Christy Mihos (I), Grace Ross (GRP) |
Democrat FAVORED (90%) | 48% |
| Michigan | Jennifer M. Granholm | Democratic | Running for 2nd term | Dick DeVos (R) | Toss Up(52%) | 43% |
| Minnesota | Tim Pawlenty | Republican | Running for 2nd term | Mike Hatch (DFL), Becky Lourey (DFL), Sue Jeffers (R/L), Peter Hutchinson (IPM), Pam Ellison (IPM), Ken Pentel (G) | Republican FAVORED (82%) | 56% |
| Nebraska | Dave Heineman | Republican | Running for 1st full term | David Hahn (D) | Republican FAVORED (93%) | 65% |
| Nevada | Kenny Guinn | Republican | Not eligible for 3rd term | Jim Gibbons (R) Dina Titus (D) |
Republican FAVORED (89%) | 53% |
| New Hampshire | John Lynch | Democratic | Running for 2nd term | Jim Coburn (R) | Democrat SAFE (95%) | 72% |
| New Mexico | Bill Richardson | Democratic | Running for 2nd term | John Dendahl (R) | Democrat SAFE (98%) | 65% |
| New York | George Pataki | Republican | Retiring | Eliot Spitzer (D), Thomas Suozzi (D) John Faso (R/Con) Malachy McCourt (G) |
Democrat SAFE (96%) | 42% |
| Ohio | Bob Taft | Republican | Not eligible for 3rd term | Kenneth Blackwell (R) Bill Peirce (L) Ted Strickland (D) |
Democrat FAVORED (91%) | 17% |
| Oklahoma | Brad Henry | Democratic | Running for 2nd term | Ernest Istook (R) | Democrat FAVORED (90%) | 69% |
| Oregon | Ted Kulongoski | Democratic | Running for 2nd term | Ron Saxton (R) | Democrat FAVORED (82%) | 44% |
| Pennsylvania | Ed Rendell | Democratic | Running for 2nd term | Lynn Swann (R) | Democrat FAVORED (89%) | 58% |
| Rhode Island | Donald Carcieri | Republican | Running for 2nd full term | Charles J. Fogarty (D) | LEANS Republican (60%) | 49% |
| South Carolina | Mark Sanford | Republican | Running for 2nd term | Tommy Moore (D) | Republican FAVORED (91%) | 51% |
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds | Republican | Running for 2nd term | Jack Billion (D) | Republican FAVORED (92%) | 62% |
| Tennessee | Phil Bredesen | Democratic | Running for 2nd term | Jim Bryson (R) | Democrat FAVORED (92%) | 57% |
| Texas | Rick Perry | Republican | Running for 2nd full term | Chris Bell (D) Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I), Kinky Friedman (I) James Werner (L) Jerry Larson (G) |
Republican FAVORED (92%) | 43% |
| Vermont | Jim Douglas | Republican | Running for 3rd term | Scudder Parker (D) | Republican FAVORED (91%) | 60% |
| Wisconsin | Jim Doyle | Democratic | Running for 2nd term | Mark Green (R) | LEANS Democrat (62%) | 48% |
| Wyoming | Dave Freudenthal | Democratic | Running for 2nd term | Ray Hunkins (R) | Democrat FAVORED (91%) | 66% |