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2006 Atlantic hurricane season

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Template:Ongoing weather Template:Infobox hurricane season active The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. It started June 1, 2006, and will officially last until November 30, 2006. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin.

One system, Tropical Storm Zeta from the Template:Tcseason, continued through early January, only the second time on record that had happened. Tropical Storm Alberto was responsible for 2 indirect deaths when it made landfall in Florida. Hurricane Ernesto caused 2 direct deaths when it caused heavy rainfall in Haiti and 2 more in Florida.

Seasonal forecasts

Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, Dr. William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University; and separately by NOAA forecasters.

Klotzbach's team (formerly led by Dr. Gray) defined the average number of storms per season (1950 to 2000) as 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms exceeding Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 6 to 14 named storms, with 4 to 8 of those reaching hurricane strength, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes.[1][2]

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2006 season
Source Date Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
CSU Average (1950–2000)[1] 9.6 5.9 2.3
NOAA Average[3] 6–14 4–8 1–3
Record high activity 28 15 8
Record low activity 4 2 0
CSU 5 December 2005 17 9 5
CSU 4 April 2006 17 9 5
NOAA 22 May 2006 13–16 8–10 4–6
CSU 31 May 2006 17 9 5
CSU 3 August 2006 15 7 3
NOAA 8 August 2006 12–15 7–9 3–4
CSU 1 September 2006 13 5 2
Activity to date 6 1 -

Pre-season forecasts

On December 5, 2005, Klotzbach's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2006 season, predicting a well above-average season (17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 of Category 3 or higher).[1]

Similar to the 2005 season, the team predicted a high potential for at least one major hurricane to directly impact the United States: the forecast indicates an 81% chance of at least one major hurricane striking the U.S. mainland (including a 64% chance of at least one major hurricane strike on the East Coast of the United States including the Florida peninsula, and a 47% chance of at least one major hurricane strike on the Gulf Coast of the United States from the Florida Panhandle westward). In addition, the potential for major hurricane activity in the Caribbean was above average. A few months later, on April 4, 2006, CSU issued another forecast that reaffirmed the forecast previously made in December.[4]

On May 22, 2006, NOAA released their forecasts for the 2006 season. They predict 13 to 16 named storms, with 8 to 10 becoming hurricanes, and 4 to 6 becoming major hurricanes.[5]

On May 31, 2006, Klotzbach's team released their final pre-season forecast for 2006, confirming their previous numbers.[6]

Midseason outlooks

On August 3, 2006, Klotzbach's team lowered their season estimate to 15 named storms, with 7 becoming hurricanes and 3 becoming major hurricanes. They noted that conditions have become less favorable than they were earlier in the year. The sea level pressure and trade wind strength in the tropical Atlantic are above normal, while sea surface temperatures are on a decreasing trend.[7]

On August 8, 2006, the NOAA reduced their season estimate to 12–15 named storms, with 7–9 becoming hurricanes and 3–4 becoming major hurricanes. They attributed the reduction to less favorable environmental conditions, a decrease in La Niña conditions, and the lack of a "very persistent upper-level ridge pattern over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic."[8]

On September 1, Klotzbach's team again lowered their season estimate to 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, citing larger amounts of the Saharan Air Layer as well as an El Niño trend in the Pacific.[9]

Storms

Tropical Storm Zeta (2005)

Main article: Tropical Storm Zeta (2005)

Tropical Storm Zeta formed on December 30, 2005 and lasted until January 6, 2006. Although it spent most of its existence in 2006, it is officially a storm of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season since it formed during 2005. Zeta joined Hurricane Alice as only the second Atlantic tropical cyclone in recorded history to exist during two different calendar years.

Tropical Storm Alberto

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
Main article: Tropical Storm Alberto (2006)

On June 10, an area of disturbed weather associated with a broad low pressure area off the coast of Belize organized over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and became the first tropical depression of the season. Southwesterly vertical wind shear was a constant companion to this system, but as it moved closer to Florida, the depression strengthened into a tropical storm on the morning of June 11. Passing over the warm deep water of the Loop Current allowed accelerated development, and the cyclone's maximum sustained winds increased to its peak strength of 70 mph (115 km/h), just shy of hurricane strength. Subsequent weakening occurred as it moved over the cooler waters of the continental shelf.[10]

Alberto made landfall midday on June 13, about 50 miles (85 km) southeast of Tallahassee, Florida.[11] Alberto brought a storm surge of five feet to the Big Bend area of the Florida coastline, flooding areas of Cedar Key and Crystal River. The large system was slow to weaken, moving across Georgia and the Carolinas before being downgraded to a tropical depression early on June 14. Alberto became an extratropical storm that morning while quickly moving towards the coast. As an extratropical storm, Alberto strengthened rapidly offshore New England and the Canadian Maritimes, becoming an oceanic storm by the afternoon of June 15.[12][13]

Tropical Storm Beryl

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
Main article: Tropical Storm Beryl (2006)

In mid-July, a front moved off the east coast of the United States and stalled, spawning a series of low pressure areas. Because steering currents were weak, the most southerly disturbance slowly drifted to the south, and gradually became more organized a few hundred miles east of the North Carolina coast. On the morning of July 18, the low pressure area was designated the second tropical cyclone of the season, ending more than a month of inactivity in the Atlantic Basin. That afternoon, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Beryl.[14]

Beryl continued moving to the north until it turned to the northeast on July 20. Beryl paralleled the East Coast of the United States and crossed over Nantucket island before becoming extratropical southwest of Nova Scotia on July 21.

Tropical Storm Chris

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
Main article: Tropical Storm Chris (2006)

On about July 26, a vigorous tropical wave formed off the coast of Africa and slowly tracked westward. It slowly developed due to poor environmental conditions and it became a tropical depression late on July 31 about 160 miles (260 km) east of Antigua.[15] The depression soon strengthened further and was named Tropical Storm Chris six hours later.[16] National Hurricane Center forecasters dismissed some computer models, which dissipated Chris quickly, as they did not have a handle on the strength of the storm.[17] Tropical Storm Chris moved to the northwest and gradually strengthened before reaching its peak strength on August 2 with winds of 65 mph (100 km/h), when it was to the northeast of the United States Virgin Islands.[18] The storm was forecast to strengthen further and become a hurricane as it moved into the Bahamas. However, Chris began to be affected by wind shear and became disorganized. The storm weakened to a tropical depression on August 4, and dissipated as it approached the Cuban coast.

In response to the storm's projected path into the Gulf of Mexico, prices for crude oil rose on the New York Mercantile Exchange in London.[19] Natural gas prices rose considerably in New York Mercantile Exchange electronic trading on August 2. Anticipation of a threat to supply by a potential Hurricane Chris coupled with high demand during an ongoing heat wave are cited as reasons for the price move.[20] On August 2 approximately 600 tourists evacuated the Puerto Rican islands of Vieques and Culebra as tropical storm warnings had been issued.[21] Cruise lines such as Royal Caribbean re-routed their ships to avoid the storm. [22] In Puerto Rico, rainfall from the storm caused the Fajardo River to overflow its banks. The overflown waters temporarily closed a highway in the northeastern portion of the island. [23] Rainfall reached up to 2 inches (50 mm) across portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba, and reached 4 inches (100 mm) in some mountainous areas.[24]

Tropical Storm Debby

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
Main article: Tropical Storm Debby (2006)

A system off the coast of Africa, and was upgraded to tropical depression status on August 21 and designated as Tropical Depression Four. Consequently, a tropical storm warning was immediately issued for the Cape Verde islands, as the system threatened to pass over or near the southern part of the archipelago. However, the system failed to strengthen into a tropical storm before passing the chain of islands, and the warning was discontinued the following morning.

The depression was upgraded to a tropical storm and was named Debby late on August 22. While it had been expected to strengthen into a hurricane, this never occurred and Debby weakened into a tropical depression on August 26. It continued to the north and lost tropical characteristics on August 27.

Hurricane Ernesto

Main article: Hurricane Ernesto (2006)
 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;

At 3:15 p.m. EDT (1915 UTC) on August 24, a reconnaissance flight determined that a tropical wave passing through the Windward Islands had developed a closed tropical circulation, and advisories were commenced on Tropical Depression Five. By 5 p.m. EDT (2100 UTC) on August 25, a second flight had found sustained tropical-storm force winds, and the system was named Ernesto. Ernesto became a hurricane on the morning of August 27 just south of Haiti, before it was downgraded back to a tropical storm in the afternoon. The storm caused 2 deaths in Haiti due to rainfall.

Ernesto made landfall near Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, early in the morning on August 28. Although at one point predicted to possibly become a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and possibly threaten the Gulf Coast, a possibility that struck fear in residents there in light of the one-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's landfall,[25] it made landfall on the southern tip of Florida and moved northward on the peninsula emerging near Cape Canaveral. Two people died in Florida in road traffic accidents attributed to the weather conditions.

Ernesto restrengthened into a tropical storm as it emerged, and was just below hurricane strength when it made landfall again in North Carolina.

Tropical Storm Florence

Tropical Storm Florence
Current storm status
Tropical storm (1-min mean)
File:TD62006atlantic.gif
Satellite image
As of:11 p.m. AST September 7 (0300 UTC September 8)
Location:21.3°N 56.1°W ± 25 nm
About 505 miles (810 km) ENE of the northern Leeward Islands
About 930 miles (1495 km) SE of Bermuda
Sustained winds:45 knots | 50 mph | 85 km/h (1-min mean)
gusting to 55 knots | 65 mph | 100 km/h
Pressure:1000 mbar (29.53 inHg)
Movement:WNW near 15 mph (24 km/h)
See more detailed information.

Tropical Depression Six formed from an area of low pressure midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles on September 3. The depression did not initially improve its organization and strengthen, due to prevailing shearing wind conditions. Despite the moderate to high wind shear, it strengthened enough to become Tropical Storm Florence on the morning of September 5. After becoming a tropical storm, Florence continued to expand in size; at one point tropical storm-force winds extended outward up to 405 miles from the center.

Current storm information

Storm track of Florence as of 5 p.m. AST September 5, 2006

As of 11 p.m. AST September 7 (0300 UTC September 8), Tropical Storm Florence is located within 25 nautical miles of 21.3°N 56.1°W, about 505 miles (810 km) ENE of the northern Leeward Islands and about 930 miles (1495 km) SE of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 1000 mbar (29.53 inches), and the system is moving WNW near 15 mph (24 km/h). Florence is an unusually large tropical cyclone; tropical storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 405 miles (650 km) from the center.

Timeline of recent events

Main article: Timeline of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season

September

September 1
  • 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC) - The NHC releases downgrades Tropical Storm Ernesto to a tropical depression and issues its final advisory.
  • 11 p.m. EDT (0300 UTC September 2) - The HPC declares the remnants of Tropical Depression Ernesto to be extratropical.
September 2
  • 11 p.m. EDT (0300 UTC September 3) - The HPC releases its final advisory on the extratropical remnants of Ernesto.
September 3
September 5
  • 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC) - Tropical Depression Six strengthens into Tropical Storm Florence.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) rating

ACE (104kt2) – Storm: Source
1 5.17 Ernesto
2 2.76 Alberto
3 2.36 Chris
4 2.30 Beryl
5 2.22 Florence (active)
6 2.14 Debby
Total: 16.9

The table on the right shows the ACE for each storm in the season. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding 35 knots (39 mph/63 km/h) or tropical storm strength.

Storm names

2006 storm names
Alberto   Helene (unused)   Oscar (unused)
Beryl   Isaac (unused)   Patty (unused)
Chris   Joyce (unused)   Rafael (unused)
Debby   Kirk (unused)   Sandy (unused)
Ernesto   Leslie (unused)   Tony (unused)
Florence (active)   Michael (unused)   Valerie (unused)
Gordon (unused)   Nadine (unused)   William (unused)

The names to the right will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2006. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2012 season. The list is the same as the 2000 season's list except for Kirk, which replaced Keith.

While it had been previously reported that a new backup list would be chosen (after it was first used in 2005), the National Hurricane Center reported in its first tropical weather outlook for the season that it would again use names from the Greek alphabet should the main list run out. It would again start with Alpha.[26]

Retirement

See also: List of retired Atlantic hurricanes

Names to be retired, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2007.

See also

Wikinews has news related to:

Template:Tcportal

References

  1. ^ a b c Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2005-12-06). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2006". Colorado State University. Retrieved 2006-05-22. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |year= (help)CS1 maint: year (link)
  2. ^ Landsea, Chris (2005). "AOML Frequently Asked Questions, E10". NOAA. Retrieved 2006-05-22.
  3. ^ NOAA (2006-04-13). "NOAA Reviews Record-Setting 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2006-04-26. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |year= (help)CS1 maint: year (link)
  4. ^ Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2006-04-04). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2006". Colorado State University. Retrieved 2006-05-22. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |year= (help)CS1 maint: year (link)
  5. ^ NOAA (2006). "NOAA Predicts Very Active 2006 North Atlantic Hurricane Season". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2006-05-22.
  6. ^ Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2006-05-31). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2006". Colorado State University. Retrieved 2006-05-31. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |year= (help)CS1 maint: year (link)
  7. ^ Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2006-08-03). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2006". Colorado State University. Retrieved 2006-08-03. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |year= (help)CS1 maint: year (link)
  8. ^ NOAA (2006-08-08). "NOAA: August 2006 Update to Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2006-08-08. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |year= (help)CS1 maint: year (link)
  9. ^ Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2006-09-01). "Forecast of Atlantic hurricane activity for September and October 2006 and seasonal update through August". Colorado State University. Retrieved 2006-09-01. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |year= (help)CS1 maint: year (link)
  10. ^ Pasch, Richard (June 12, 2006). "Tropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion #11, 5 p.m. EDT". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2006-06-13. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |year= (help)CS1 maint: year (link)
  11. ^ National Hurricane Center. "Tropical Storm Alberto Update, 12:45 p.m. EDT, June 13, 2006". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2006-06-13.
  12. ^ National Hurricane Center. "Tropical Storm Alberto Final Public Advisory #18, 11 a.m. EDT, June 14, 2006". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2006-06-14.
  13. ^ National Hurricane Center. "Tropical Storm Alberto Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Cone, 11 a.m. EDT, June 14, 2006". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2006-06-14.
  14. ^ National Hurricane Center (July 18, 2006). "Tropical Storm Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update, 4:55 p.m. EDT, [[July 18]] [[2006]]". Florida State University Meteorology Department. Retrieved 2006-07-18. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); URL–wikilink conflict (help)
  15. ^ National Hurricane Center. "Discussion for Tropical Depression Three, 11:00 p.m. EDT, July 31, 2005". NOAA. Retrieved August 1. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Unknown parameter |accessyear= ignored (|access-date= suggested) (help)
  16. ^ National Hurricane Center. "Discussion for Tropical Depression Three, 5:00 a.m. EDT, August 1, 2005". NOAA. Retrieved August 1. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Unknown parameter |accessyear= ignored (|access-date= suggested) (help)
  17. ^ National Hurricane Center. "Discussion for Tropical Depression Three, 11:00 a.m. EDT, August 1, 2005". NOAA. Retrieved August 1. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Unknown parameter |accessyear= ignored (|access-date= suggested) (help)
  18. ^ National Hurricane Center. "Discussion for Tropical Storm Chris, 11:00 a.m. EDT, August 2, 2005". NOAA. Retrieved August 5. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Unknown parameter |accessyear= ignored (|access-date= suggested) (help)
  19. ^ "Oil surges as Storm Chris heads toward Gulf of Mexico". Financial Express. 2006-08-01. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  20. ^ "Natural Gas Surges in New York on Hurricane Threat, Heat Wave". Bloomberg. 2006-08-02. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  21. ^ Laura Candelas (2006-08-02). "Storm prompts tourists' evacuation". Associated Press. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  22. ^ Royal Caribbean. "Tropical Weather Update for August 2, 2006". Retrieved August 2. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help)
  23. ^ Miranda Leitsinger (2006). "Tropical Storm Chris weakens further". Associated Press. Retrieved 2006-08-04.
  24. ^ http://www.zeenews.com/znnew/articles.asp?aid=313893&ssid=26&sid=ENV
  25. ^ http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060826/us_nm/weather_hurricanes_louisiana_dc_1
  26. ^ National Hurricane Center (June 1, 2006). "Tropical Weather Outlook". Florida State University Meteorology Department. Retrieved 2006-06-17. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
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