Bowl Championship Series

The BCS stands for Bowl Championship Series, a computer ranking format and bowl setup that has decided the NCAA college football championship since 1998. The BCS has been criticized often, but was especially controversial in the 2003-2004 season when five teams finished the season with 1 loss, three of which had legitimate cases for playing in the BCS title game.

Formula

2003-04 formula

The BCS formula calculates the top 25 teams in a poll format. After combining a number of factors, a final point total is created and the teams who received the 25 lowest scores are ranked in descending order. The factors are:

Poll Average: Both the AP and ESPN-USA Today coaches polls are averaged to make a number which is the poll average.
Computer Average: An average of the rankings of a team in 7 different computer polls are gathered, with the poll in which the team is lowest ranked being dropped. This creates the computer average.
Schedule rank: This is the team's strength of schedule divided by 25. A teams strength of schedule is calculated by win/loss record of opponents (66.6%) and cumulative win/loss record of team's opponents opponents (33.3%).
Losses: One point is added for every loss the team has suffered during the season.
Quality Win Component: If a team beats a team which is in the top 10 in the BCS standings, a range of 1 to .1 points will be subtracted from their total. Beating the #1 ranked team will result in a loss of 1 point (remember, losing points is a good thing), a #5 team will result in a loss of .5 points and the #10th ranked team would result in a loss of .1 points. If you beat a team twice during the season, you may only be rewarded quality win points once--or, possibly, not at all. Quality win points are calculated by the final BCS standings (so if you beat the #1 team in the second week of the season, you may not be entitled to .8 points at the end of the season).

The exact formula of how the final point total for any team is calculated is not public information, but it is known that it is derived from these factors. Some have been able to guess the formula and thus predict the results before the official standings are released.

2004-05 formula

After the 2003-04 controversy (see BCS Controversy) in which the top team in the human polls (USC) was denied a place in the title game, the formula was completely revamped. Schedule strength, losses, and quality wins will no longer be considered. Also, the exact formula is now public information. It will now be the arithmetic average of the following three numbers:

AP Poll: A team's AP Poll number will be the percentage of the possible points it could receive in the poll. As an example, in the final regular-season poll of 2003, USC received a total of 1,580 out of a possible 1,625 points from the voters, giving them an AP Poll percentage of 97.2.
Coaches' Poll: This is calculated in the same manner as the AP Poll number. For USC, their final regular-season number in this poll would have been 96.3 (1,516 out of 1,575 possible points).
Computer Average: The BCS will now use six computer rating systems, dropping the highest and lowest ranking for each team. Then, it will give a team 25 points for a Number 1 ranking in an individual system, 24 points for Number 2, and so on down to 1 point for Number 25. Each team's set of numbers is then added, conveniently making the number compatible with the percentages from the two polls. For USC, dropping their highest and lowest computer rankings would have left them with four third-place finishes, worth 23 points each for a total of 92.

The BCS will average the three numbers obtained above, and then divide the result by 100, converting it to a decimal fraction.

The new formula will make it highly unlikely that the top team in both human polls will be denied a place in the title game, as happened in 2003-04.

Bowl games

In the current BCS format, four bowl games are considered "BCS Bowl Games". They include the Sugar Bowl, the Rose Bowl, the Fiesta Bowl, and the Orange Bowl.

Two of the bowls are played January 1st, one on January 2nd and the national championship is played on January 4th. The championship bowl is rotated between the different bowls, for example, the Sugar Bowl will have the national championship game once every four years.

The national championship bowl game is forced to select the top 2 BCS-ranked teams. The winners of the 6 major conferences (Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 12, Big 10, Pac 10) are guaranteed automatic BCS bowl appearances.

There are 2 "at-large" berths which can be either granted to teams in those conferences who did not win their championship or to teams belonging to mid-major conferences. Also, in theory, a team who did not win its conference could play in the national championship game. This happened in practice twice. In the 2003 season, Oklahoma went to the BCS title game despite being blown out in the Big 12 championship game by Kansas State. In 2001, Nebraska made the BCS title game despite not even qualifying for the Big 12 championship game.

Despite the possibility of an "at-large" berth being granted to a mid-major team, this has never happened; see BCS Controversy for more on that.

The BCS bowls are required to have the top 6 BCS ranked teams in their games, but this requirement generally falls lower than the conference requirement. For example, if the 6th ranked team had to be left out for an 11th ranked team who won its major conference to be admitted, the 11th ranked would be admitted. However, if a school from a non-BCS conference finishes in the top six, the BCS bylaws require that this team receive an at-large berth to one of the current BCS games. The BCS bylaws also include a provision that gives the Rose Bowl the right to preserve its traditional Big 10-Pac 10 matchup, if possible, in years when it does not host the national championship game.

Starting with the 2005-06 season (the year in which the BCS starts a new television contract), a fifth BCS bowl will be added. This new BCS bowl will be held at the site which will host that year's championship game. This would at least theoretically give mid-majors better access to a BCS bowl game.

BCS controversy

The BCS has come under fire, partly due to its existence; the formula has to determine which 2 nationwide teams are fit to be play for the national championship. Rarely is there a year where the 2 top teams in the nation are clear-cut choices. In fact, unlike the NFL, the ultimate aim of a college team is to finish the regular season undefeated. So, a college team that ends its season with an umblemished record almost guarantees a spot in the BCS championship game, where two teams would surely get the nod in the title game. One loss by any team and their fate is sure to be sealed.

2003-04 season

The worst year probably was the 2003-2004 season, when three schools from BCS conferences finished the season with one loss (in fact, no I-A Division team finished the season undefeated, something that hasn't happened since 1997, the year before the advent of the BCS). The three schools in question were:

Two non-BCS schools also finished with one loss, but neither was in contention for a BCS bowl berth, much less the championship.

Miami University (Ohio)
Boise State

USC was #1 in both the AP and ESPN-USA Today Coaches poll, but had a 2.67 computer poll ranking and had the 37th ranking schedule. LSU had a #2 poll average, a 1.83 computer average, and a 29th rank of schedule. Oklahoma had a #3 poll average, a 1.17 computer average, and the 11th ranking schedule along with a quality win of .5. The final numeric averages for the teams were as follows (keep in mind anything within 1 is close)

Oklahoma: 5.11
LSU: 5.99
USC: 6.15

Therefore, Oklahoma and LSU played each other in that year's title game, the Sugar Bowl, with LSU winning. The BCS was highly criticized since USC had been ranked #1 by humans but had somehow fallen to #3 in a computer average like the BCS. Since USC beat Michigan in the Rose Bowl, the writers who vote in the AP poll had the opportunity to vote USC as their national champion, which they did. However, the coaches were contractually bound to vote for the Sugar Bowl winner (LSU). Three coaches violated the agreement and voted USC #1, but all other coaches voted for LSU, giving the Tigers the other half of the national title.

The BCS has also been criticized for locking out mid-major programs. No mid-major program has gone to a BCS bowl and some have accused the BCS and associating bowls of having a monopoly of sorts on the top bowls. There were even congressional hearings on the issue. It would likely take a qualified mid-major program being locked out of the BCS when they were obviously deserving for this issue to be looked at more closely. Incidentally, only once since 1980 has a school outside of today's BCS played in one of the current BCS bowls (Louisville in the 1991 Fiesta Bowl).

Some, including ESPN's Lee Corso have suggested that the BCS reincorporate margin of victory into the rankings, a factor which would have changed the 2003-2004 final rankings (had USC and Oklahoma in the championship). However, the BCS completely revamped its formula as noted previously, completely eliminating strength of schedule, losses, and quality wins, and not considering victory margin.

Had the 2004-05 formula been used in the 2003-04 season, the final game would have pitted USC and LSU. While USC would have been indisputably top-ranked under the new formula, there may have been some controversy regarding the Trojans' opponent. LSU and Oklahoma would have been separated by .014. The new formula creates a situation in which an individual's vote in either poll may possibly decide who advances to the BCS title game.

2004-05 season

The new BCS formula, however, may well not end the controversy. With all teams having one regular-season game remaining, there are no fewer than five teams that may enter the postseason unbeaten. Three are from BCS conferences:

Two are from non-BCS conferences:

USC has been top-ranked in both human polls for the entire season by a comfortable margin, which has given them the BCS lead. Oklahoma and Auburn have been neck-and-neck for second.

As of this writing (November 20), USC has one game remaining, against Notre Dame; USC is a solid favorite. Oklahoma and Auburn have both finished their regular seasons at 11-0, but in order to enter the BCS bowls, both must survive conference championship games. Oklahoma's opponent in the Big 12 title game has not yet been determined, but the Sooners are likely to be a heavy favorite. In the 2004 season, most of the strongest teams in the conference were in the South Division, in which Oklahoma plays. The Sooners' opponent will be from the considerably weaker North Division. Auburn faces a considerably tougher opponent for the SEC title in Tennessee.

As for the non-BCS schools, Boise State can be dismissed as being competitive for a BCS berth. It has played a relatively weak schedule, is a notably weaker team when playing on the road, and has survived two close calls against non-BCS schools. It has one game remaining, against Nevada.

Utah, on the other hand, played a nationally competitive nonconference schedule. The Utes completed an 11-0 regular season with a 52-21 win over archrival BYU. No opponent came within two touchdowns of the Utes. While no impartial observer considers Utah to be equal in strength to the three current BCS unbeatens, many believe that it deserves a chance to break into the BCS. Utah entered the BYU game sixth in the BCS rankings, and its win should assure it of staying in the top six. This would make Utah the first school from outside the BCS conferences to play in a BCS game since the inception of the current system.