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2008 United States presidential election

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File:Electoral map450.jpg
Presidential electoral votes by state

The 2008 U.S. Presidential election is scheduled to occur on November 4, 2008. The allocation of electoral votes to each state will remain the same for this election as it was for the election in 2004; this will be the last presidential election in which this allocation will be used.

Presidential Candidate Electoral Vote Popular Vote Pct Party Running Mate
(Electoral Votes)
&nbsp
Other elections: 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020
Source: U.S. Office of the Federal Register

The shape of presidential battles

Recent elections have revolved around the dominant Democratic and Republican parties - although many candidates seek election to the presidency, and the Green, Libertarian, and Reform parties, and Ross Perot's 1992 independent candidacy have all arguably been deciding factors in many recent presidential elections by swaying small numbers of votes away from one side and tossing victory to the other.

The re-election of George W. Bush in 2004 makes the 2008 race a non-incumbent election; that is, one in which a sitting president is not a candidate. Furthermore, the 2008 race will apparently be the first time since 1952 that neither the sitting president nor the sitting vice-president is a candidate for president.

In 2008, President Bush will be prohibited from seeking a third term by Amendment XXII to the U.S. Constitution. In the last three eight-year administrations, the incumbent vice president has gone on to run for president at the end of the eight years: Dwight D. Eisenhower's vice president Richard Nixon in the 1960 election, Ronald Reagan's vice president George H. W. Bush in the 1988 election and Bill Clinton's vice president Al Gore in the 2000 election.

However, current Vice President Dick Cheney announced in 2001 that he would never run for President. This has led to rumors that Cheney will be replaced as vice president at some point to establish someone else as an "heir apparent" for the Republicans in 2008; although Cheney was nominated and elected for the vice presidency in the 2004 election, he could still well resign before November 2008, most likely citing lingering health concerns. This scenario is perhaps made somewhat more likely by the concurrent retention by the Republicans of both houses of Congress, since Amendment XXV requires the confirmation of any replacement Vice President by both houses of Congress, not just the Senate as is typically the case with Presidential appointees. Regardless, depending on the success or failure of an eight-year Bush presidency, the Republicans would have the option of running a candidate who promised to continue Bush's policy, a candidate who repudiated Bush's policies and promoted a different policy agenda, or someone who followed some but not all of the Bush political platform and agenda.

For the Democrats, the Bush re-election in 2004 gives them a broad freedom to choose a 2008 candidate and platform unencumbered by having their own sitting president seeking re-election. Some leading figures in the Democratic party had anonymously expressed their desire for Bush to be re-elected; because he is one of the most unpopular Republican Presidents amongst Democrats in history, they feel that his second four-year term will lead to spectacular party unity and fundraising success, laying the basis for a powerful Democratic resurgence.

Timeline

Candidates of the Constitution, Democratic, Green, Libertarian, Republican and possibly other parties may begin making their plans known as early as 2005. Based on the 2004 campaign, Presidential candidacies are unlikely to begin in earnest until after the November 2006 mid-term election. If current election laws remain unchanged, a few important dates are already known:

  • 2006-2007 The fundraising race.

Candidates who can raise $30-50 million (or more if they opt out of public finance system like Bush, Kerry and Dean did in 2004) early may have a significant advantage in a crowded field of possibles. John Kerry still has $45 million remaining in the bank from his 2004 primary campaign.

  • 2008

Beginning in January, the first contests are held in Iowa (caucus) and New Hampshire (primary) and perhaps other states. Nomination process unfolds thru at least March and perhaps as late as June. Party conventions in late summer/early fall.

Potential candidates for nomination in 2008

Numerous names have been floated as possible candidates for President or Vice President in 2008.

Democrats

Republicans

Greens

Libertarians

Other parties and independents

It is also conceivable that a candidate for a major party nomination that did not win that nomination might seek the presidency as an other party or independent candidate; contemporary examples include John B. Anderson, Republican nomination candidate and Independent general election candidate in the 1980 election, and Buchanan, Republican nomination candidate in the 1992, 1996 and initially prospective candidate in the 2000 election primaries but then Reform Party general election candidate in the 2000 election.

Possible Constitutional amendments

There has been some discussion recently of amending the Constitution to remove the absolute requirement that only natural-born citizens may become President. If such a change occurred in time for the 2008 elections, possible candidates for President or Vice President who are naturalized citizens would include Democratic Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm, born in Canada; Democratic former Secretary of State Madeline Albright, born in Czechoslovakia; Republican U.S. Senator-elect from Florida Mel Martinez, born in Cuba; and Republican California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, born in Austria.

The possible repeal or amendment of Amendment XXII to allow a President to seek election to a third or further term has also come under some discussion. One proposal would allow a President to serve only two consecutive terms but seek to return after a respite. The only living former president who has served two terms is Bill Clinton. If sentiments across party lines looked favorably on a contest between George W. Bush and Bill Clinton in 2008, when both men would be 62, 2012, when both would be 66, or at a later date, or a potential candidacy by either individually, a change to this term limit might find support.

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