Jump to content

2008 United States presidential election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is an old revision of this page, as edited by Gonknet (talk | contribs) at 21:17, 11 December 2006 (→Democratic Party). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

Template:Future election

Presidential electoral votes by state

The United States Presidential election of 2008 will be held on November 4, 2008. The election will determine electors for the United States Electoral College, and whichever presidential candidate receives a majority of votes in the Electoral College (at least 270) will be the 44th President of the United States. If no candidate receives a majority in the Electoral College then the president-elect is selected by a vote of the House of Representatives.

As in the 2004 Presidential election, the allocation of electoral votes to each state will be partially based on the 2000 Census. The president-elect will be inaugurated on Tuesday, January 20, 2009.

An election without incumbents

In the three most recent Presidential administrations in which the President could not run for a third term due to term limits (those of Eisenhower, Reagan, and Clinton), the incumbent Vice President has immediately thereafter run for President (Richard Nixon lost the 1960 election, George H. W. Bush won the 1988 election, and Al Gore lost the 2000 election).

However, the current Vice President Dick Cheney announced in 2001 that he would never run for President, a statement he reiterated in 2004. While appearing on Fox News Sunday, Cheney stated: "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve." [1]

The 2008 race will be a non-incumbent or "open seat" election in which a sitting President is not a candidate. Assuming Cheney completes his term in full, the 2008 race will be the first time since 1928 that neither the sitting President nor the sitting Vice President will run for President, though the 1952 general election between Dwight D. Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson did not include a sitting President or Vice President since neither President Harry Truman (who dropped out after losing the New Hampshire Primary) nor Vice President Alben Barkley won the Democratic nomination.

Timeline

Main article: U.S. presidential election, 2008 timeline

Early stages

Candidates began to emerge during 2006, where the first "cattle calls" were held and at least two straw polls were taken. In 2007, because of the long lead time for fundraising and because Federal election laws require the reporting of funds raised for the primary elections, fundraising will begin in earnest.

During the "primary" the media will anoint "front-runners" on the basis of reported fund-raising totals. For example, the media treated Howard Dean as the front-runner going into the 2004 cycle, although he was initially considered by some to be a long-shot.

The South Carolina Republican Party will host a Republican Party debate May 15, 2007, at the University of South Carolina in Columbia. [3]

Official primary caucus election dates

Delegates to national party conventions are selected through direct primary elections, state caucuses, and state conventions. The process continues through June, but in previous cycles, including 2004, the Democratic and Republican candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries, because the leading candidates had collected enough committed delegates to win in the national convention. Most third parties select delegates to their national conventions through state conventions.

Democratic primaries and caucuses

-New Hampshire officials have stated that by state law, the NH Primary must follow Iowa, thus, the state may not abide by DNC approved dates.

Republican primaries and caucuses

Later events

Potential candidates

While it is rare for candidates to officially declare their candidacy prior to the year preceding the presidential election (in this case, 2007), some potential candidates may have expressed their interest in running, and are listed below. At this early stage, many of the strongest candidates might have yet to emerge, and these lists include a few politicians who excite speculation among political activists, insiders, media commentators and political junkies.

Conditions for listing a candidate

As stated above, the election is currently in its early stages and candidates are not yet official.

  1. Private Official Campaign Web Site, Required Data
    1. Private web page (non-free web page)
    2. Statement of FEC Status
    3. Valid current contact information (name, address, telephone, non-free email)
    4. Date and place of birth
    5. Intent of ballot placement or write-in status.
    6. Current list of Registration for write-in status

FEC - FEC Registered Candidate.
FEC-Other - FEC Registered Candidate, other election.
Non-FEC - Non-FEC Registered Candidate

Democratic Party

Main article: Official and Potential 2008 United States presidential election Democratic candidates

Official candidates who have filed with the FEC for the Democratic Party:

Candidates who have formed exploratory committees:

Candidates who have expressed serious interest:

Republican Party

Main article: Official and Potential 2008 United States presidential election Republican candidates

Official candidates who have filed with the FEC for the Republican Party:

Candidates who have formed exploratory committees:

Candidates who have expressed serious interest:

Third parties

Main article: Official and potential 2008 United States presidential election third party candidates

Constitution Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Constitution Party (United States):

Green Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Green Party:

Libertarian Party

Official candidates who have filed with the FEC for the Libertarian Party:

Announced candidates:

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy:

Prohibition Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Prohibition Party:

Reform Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Reform Party: None yet.

Socialist Party USA

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Socialist Party USA: None yet.

Independents

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy

Opinion polling

Opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election has offered various projections for who the top contenders may be.

Possible electoral college changes

In 2006, the "DC Fair and Equal House Voting Rights Act" was introduced in the U.S. House. If enacted, the act would have the effect of increasing the size of the electoral college by 1. The bill's primary purpose is to give House representation to the District of Columbia. But the bill also grants, for partisan balancing, an additional House seat to Utah, and increases Utah's electoral votes by 1, since Utah is likely to vote Republican and the District of Columbia is likely to vote Democratic. However, this will only be valid until the next census, when the extra seat will be reapportioned like all other seats. The District of Columbia's electoral vote count would remain unchanged at 3, as required by the 23rd amendment. The likely effect of the change, if enacted, on the 2008 presidential election would be to give a +1 advantage to the Republican candidate: Utah has not been carried by a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, and in the most recent election gave the Republican 71% of the vote. Even though the size of the electoral college would increase to 539, a candidate would still need 270 electoral votes to win.

Also, the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is a proposed agreement between states in the United States dealing with their allocation of electoral votes. This interstate compact would effectively shift the method of election of the President of the United States to a national popular vote system. By the terms of the compact, states agree to give all of their electoral votes to the national popular vote winner, regardless of the balance of votes in their own states. The compact would only go into effect once it was joined by states representing a majority of the electoral college.

References

  1. ^ Transcript: Vice President Cheney on 'FOX News Sunday'. Fox News Sunday. February 7, 2005. Retrieved November 14, 2006
  2. ^ Arkansas Act 501 of 2005 [1]
  3. ^ a b California Election Code, Section 1202. [2]
  4. ^ "Sen. Bayh to consider running for president". Reuters. December 3, 2006. Retrieved 2006-12-03. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  5. ^ "McCain, Biden explore White House bids; Feingold out". Associated Press. November 12, 2006. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  6. ^ Gambrill, Jon (November 28, 2006). "Wesley Clark wants to avoid '04 mistake in '08". Associated Press. Retrieved 2006-11-28. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  7. ^ Fouhy, Beth (November 15, 2006). "Analysis: Clinton Undecided on '08 Run". CBS News. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  8. ^ Lightman, David (November 17, 2006). "For Dodd, A Chance To Fortify Old Ties". Hartford Courant. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  9. ^ Johnson, Mark (November 18, 2006). "Formal announcement all that's missing from coordinated publicity". Charlotte Observer. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  10. ^ Yen, Hope (November 19, 2006). "Kerry: Botched Joke Won't Affect 2008". Associated Press. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  11. ^ "US senator and White House contender Obama ponders his future". Associated Press. November 19, 2006. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  12. ^ Massey, Barry (November 17, 2006). "N.M. Gov Pleads Illegal Immigrant's Case". Associated Press. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  13. ^ Lucadamo, Kathleen (November 28, 2006). "Rev. Al mulls White House bid". New York Daily News. Retrieved 2006-11-28. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  14. ^ "Ohio Rep. Kucinich to Run for President". Forbes. December 11, 2006. Retrieved 2006-12-11. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  15. ^ "Giuliani Announces Intention to Run for President". News 10/KXTV. November 13, 2006. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  16. ^ Walker, Mark (November 4, 2006). "Duncan Hunter's bid for president a surprise". North County Times. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  17. ^ "Gilmore Still Mulling His Options". ABC News. November 28, 2006. Retrieved 2006-11-29. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  18. ^ Easton, Nina (November 20, 2006). "Gingrich '08: The stealth candidate". Fortune. Retrieved 2006-11-20. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  19. ^ Howard, Ed (November 14, 2006). "Hagel In 2008 Doesn't Do Much For Nebraska Voters In 2006". Nebraska State Paper. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  20. ^ DeMillo, Andrew (November 17, 2006). "Huckabee Says Campaign Laws Aid McCain". Washington Post. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  21. ^ Wrobleski, Tom (November 19, 2006). "It's anything but a 2-person race". Staten Island Advance. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  22. ^ "Romney likely to explore White House bid after holidays". Associated Press. November 17, 2006. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  23. ^ Kovacs, Joe (November 22, 2006). "Tancredo: McCain, Giuliani would be disastrous for GOP: 'I will do everything I can to make sure those 2 names are not the only options'". WorldNetDaily. Retrieved 2006-11-22. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  24. ^ Glover, Mike (November 15, 2006). "Thompson to form presidential exploratory committee". Associated Press. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  25. ^ Corsi, Jerome R. (April 30, 2006). "Founder of Minutemen targets run for president". World Net Daily. Retrieved 2006-11-14. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  26. ^ http://www.gp.org/video/2006tucson/garrett.shtml
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2008_United_States_presidential_election&oldid=93657747"