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'{{Use mdy dates|date=March 2022}} {{Short description|American futurist (1922–1983)}} {{for|the archivist|Herman Kahn (archivist)}} {{Infobox person | name = Herman Kahn (fucking kike) | image = Interview with Herman Kahn, author of On Escalation, May 11, 1965.jpg | caption = Kahn on May 11, 1965 | birth_date = {{Birth date|1922|02|15}} | birth_place = [[Bayonne, New Jersey]], U.S. | death_date = {{death date and age|1983|7|7|1922|2|15}} | death_place = [[Chappaqua, New York]], U.S. | known_for = [[Nuclear strategy]] | notable_works = ''[[On Thermonuclear War]]'' | occupation = {{unbulleted list |[[Futurist]] |[[Military strategy|Military strategist]] |[[System theory|Systems theorist]]}} | alma_mater = [[University of California, Los Angeles]] ([[B. S.|BS]])<br />[[California Institute of Technology]] ([[M. S.|MS]]) }} '''Herman Kahn''' (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983) was an American physicist and a founding member of the [[Hudson Institute]], regarded as one of the preeminent [[futurist]]s of the latter part of the twentieth century. He originally came to prominence as a [[Military strategy|military strategist]] and [[System theory|systems theorist]] while employed at the [[RAND Corporation]]. He analyzed the likely consequences of [[Nuclear warfare|nuclear war]] and recommended ways to improve survivability during the [[Cold War]]. Kahn posited the idea of a "winnable" nuclear exchange in his 1960 book ''On Thermonuclear War'' for which he was one of the historical inspirations for the title character of [[Stanley Kubrick]]'s classic [[black comedy]] film satire ''[[Dr. Strangelove]]''.<ref name=Boyer1996>Paul Boyer, 'Dr. Strangelove' in Mark C. Carnes (ed.), ''Past Imperfect: History According to the Movies'', New York, 1996.</ref> In his commentary for [[Fail Safe (1964 film)|''Fail Safe'']], director [[Sidney Lumet]] remarked that the Professor Groeteschele character is also based on Herman Kahn.<ref>{{cite AV media |title=Fail Safe |medium=DVD |date=2000 |publisher=Columbia Pictures Industries, Inc. }}</ref> Kahn's theories contributed to the development of the [[nuclear strategy]] of the United States. == Early life and education == Kahn was born in [[Bayonne, New Jersey]], the son of Yetta (née Koslowsky) and Abraham Kahn, a tailor.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=62G1H3LhBZsC&pg=PA61|title=The Worlds of Herman Kahn: the intuitive science of thermonuclear war|first=Sharon|last=Ghamari-Tabrizi|date=June 30, 2009|publisher=Harvard University Press|isbn=9780674037564 |via=Google Books}}</ref> His parents were Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe. He was raised in [[the Bronx]], then in Los Angeles following his parents' divorce.<ref>{{cite book |last=Frankel |first=Benjamin |author2=Hoops, Townsend |title=The Cold War, 1945–1991: Leaders and Other Important Figures in the United States and Western Europe |url=https://archive.org/details/isbn_9780810389281 |url-access=registration |publisher=Gale Research |year=1992 |page=[https://archive.org/details/isbn_9780810389281/page/248 248] |isbn=0-8103-8927-4}}</ref> Raised Jewish, he later became an atheist.<ref>{{cite magazine |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=7VMEAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA110 |title=The Think-Tank Man |magazine=Life |date=December 6, 1968 |volume=65 |number=23 |pages=110–126 |first=William A. |last=McWhirter |quote=Herman Kahn is an atheist who still likes rabbis, and a liberal who likes cops.}}</ref> Kahn graduated from [[Fairfax High School (Los Angeles)|Fairfax High School]] in 1940 and served in the [[United States Army]] during the [[Burma campaign (1944–1945)|Burma campaign]] in [[World War II]] in a non-combat capacity as a [[telephone lineman]].<ref>{{Cite book |last=Ghamari-Tabrizi |first=Sharon |title=The Worlds of Herman Kahn: the intuitive science of thermonuclear war |publisher=[[Harvard University Press]] |date=April 22, 2005 |isbn=978-0674017146 |pages=63 |language=English}}</ref> He received a [[Bachelor of Science]] at [[UCLA]] and briefly attended [[Caltech]] to pursue a [[doctorate]] before dropping out with a [[Master of Science]] due to financial constraints.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Herman Kahn (1922-1983) |url=https://www.atomicarchive.com/resources/biographies/kahn.html |access-date=2022-12-29 |website=www.atomicarchive.com}}</ref> He joined the RAND Corporation as a mathematician after being recruited by fellow physicist [[Samuel T. Cohen|Samuel Cohen]].<ref>{{Cite web |last=Tietz |first=Tabea |title=Herman Kahn and the Consequences of Nuclear War |date=February 15, 2022 |url=http://scihi.org/herman-kahn-consequences-nuclear-war/ |access-date=2022-12-29 |language=en-US}}</ref> == Cold War theories == Kahn's major contributions were the several strategies he developed during the Cold War to contemplate "the unthinkable"{{spaced ndash}}namely, [[nuclear warfare]]{{spaced ndash}}by using applications of [[game theory]]. Kahn is often cited (with [[Pierre Wack]]) as a father of [[scenario planning]].<ref>Schwartz, Peter, ''The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World,'' New York: Currency Doubleday, 1991, p. 7</ref> Kahn argued for deterrence and believed that if the Soviet Union believed that the United States had a second strike capability then it would offer greater deterrence, which he wrote in his paper titled "The Nature and Feasibility of War and Deterrence".<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P1888.html|title=The Nature and Feasibility of War and Deterrence|last=Kahn|first=Herman|date=1960}}</ref> The bases<!--plural of "basis"--> of his work were [[systems theory]] and [[game theory]] as applied to economics and military strategy. Kahn argued that for deterrence to succeed, the Soviet Union had to be convinced that the United States had [[Second strike|second-strike]] capability in order to leave the [[Politburo]] in no doubt that even a perfectly coordinated massive attack would guarantee a measure of retaliation that would leave them devastated as well: {{quote|At the minimum, an adequate deterrent for the United States must provide an objective basis for a Soviet calculation that would persuade them that, no matter how skillful or ingenious they were, an attack on the United States would lead to a very high risk if not certainty of large-scale destruction to Soviet civil society and military forces.<ref>"On Thermonuclear War", Herman Kahn</ref>}} In 1962, Kahn published a 16-step escalation ladder. By 1965 he had developed this into a 44-step ladder.<ref>[https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/reports/2007/R3235.pdf Concepts and Models of Escalation], The Rand Corporation 1984</ref> # Ostensible Crisis # Political, Economic and Diplomatic Gestures # Solemn and Formal Declarations # Hardening of Positions – Confrontation of Wills # Show of Force # Significant Mobilization # "Legal" Harassment – Retortions # Harassing Acts of Violence # Dramatic Military Confrontations # Provocative Breaking off of Diplomatic Relations # Super-Ready Status # Large Conventional War (or Actions) # Large Compound Escalation # Declaration of Limited Conventional War # Barely Nuclear War # Nuclear "Ultimatums" # Limited Evacuations (20%) # Spectacular Show or Demonstration of Force # "Justifiable" Counterforce Attack # "Peaceful" World-Wide Embargo or Blockade # Local Nuclear War – Exemplary # Declaration of Limited Nuclear War # Local Nuclear War – Military # Unusual, Provocative and Significant Countermeasures # Evacuation (70%) # Demonstration Attack on Zone of Interior # Exemplary Attack on Military # Exemplary Attacks Against Property # Exemplary Attacks on Population # Complete Evacuation (95%) # Reciprocal Reprisals # Formal Declaration of "General" War # Slow-Motion Counter-"Property" War # Slow-Motion Counterforce War # Constrained Force-Reduction Salvo # Constrained Disarming Attack # Counterforce-with-Avoidance Attack # Unmodified Counterforce Attack # Slow-Motion Countercity war # Countervalue Salvo # Augmented Disarming Attack # Civilian Devastation Attack # Controlled General War # Spasm/Insensate War == Hudson Institute == In 1961, Kahn, Max Singer and Oscar Ruebhausen founded the [[Hudson Institute]],<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.hudson.org/learn/index.cfm?fuseaction=history |title=Hudson Institute > About Hudson > History |publisher=Hudson.org |date=June 1, 2004 |access-date=February 21, 2012 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120205055227/http://www.hudson.org/learn/index.cfm?fuseaction=history |archive-date=February 5, 2012 }}</ref> a [[think tank]] initially located in [[Croton-on-Hudson, New York]], where Kahn was living at the time. He recruited sociologist [[Daniel Bell]], political philosopher [[Raymond Aron]] and novelist [[Ralph Ellison]] (author of the 1952 classic ''[[Invisible Man]]''). == ''The Year 2000'' == In 1967, Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener published ''The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years'', which included contributions from staff members of the Hudson Institute and an introduction by [[Daniel Bell]]. Table XVIII in the document<ref>"The Year 2000", Herman Kahn, Anthony J. Wiener, Macmillan, 1961, pp. 51–55.</ref> contains a list called "One Hundred Technical Innovations Very Likely in the Last Third of the Twentieth Century". The first ten predictions were: # Multiple applications of lasers # Extreme high-strength structural materials # New or improved superperformance fabrics # New or improved materials for equipment and appliances # New airborne vehicles ([[ground-effect vehicle]]s, giant or supersonic jets, [[VTOL]], [[STOL]]) # Extensive commercial applications of [[Shaped charge|shaped-charge]] explosives # More reliable and longer-range weather forecasting # Extensive and/or intensive expansion of tropical agriculture and forestry # New sources of power for fixed installations # New sources of power for ground transportation == Later years == In Kahn's view, [[capitalism]] and technology held nearly boundless potential for progress, while the [[colonization of space]] lay in the near, not the distant, future.<ref>"The Next 200 Years", Herman Kahn, Morrow, 1976.</ref> Kahn's 1976 book ''The Next 200 Years'', written with William Brown and Leon Martel, presented an optimistic scenario of economic conditions in the year 2176. He also wrote a number of books extrapolating the future of the American, Japanese and Australian economies and several works on systems theory, including the well-received 1957 monograph ''Techniques of System Analysis''.<ref>{{Cite book|first1=Herman|last1=Kahn|first2=Irwin|last2=Mann|date=June 1957|publisher=RAND Corporation|title=Techniques of Systems Analysis|url=https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM1829-1.html}}</ref> During the mid-1970s, when [[South Korea]]'s GDP per capita was one of the lowest in the world, Kahn predicted that the country would become one of the top 10 most powerful countries in the world by the year 2000.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2014/03/22/2014032200657.html?news_Head1|title=[월간조선] 朴正熙와 46년 전에 만나 "한국 10大 강대국 된다"고 했던 美미래학자, 그는...|access-date=October 4, 2016}}</ref> In his last year, 1983, Kahn wrote approvingly of [[Ronald Reagan]]'s political agenda in ''The Coming Boom: Economic, Political, and Social'' and bluntly derided [[Jonathan Schell]]'s claims about the long-term effects of nuclear war. On July 7 that year, he died of a stroke, aged 61.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.atomicarchive.com/Bios/Kahn.shtml|title=Herman Kahn |website=www.atomicarchive.com|access-date=April 27, 2017}}</ref> ==Personal life== His wife was Rosalie "Jane" Kahn. He and Jane had two children, David and Debbie. == Cultural influence == Along with [[John von Neumann]], [[Edward Teller]] and [[Wernher von Braun]], Kahn was an inspiration for the character "Dr. Strangelove" in [[Dr. Strangelove|the eponymous film]] by [[Stanley Kubrick]] released in 1964.<ref name=Boyer1996 />{{Failed verification|date=January 2022|reason=Kahn and von Neumann are not identified as inspirations for the Strangelove character. The source (p. 268) does mention Kahn's book but does not explicitly state that Kubrick read it.}} After Kubrick read Kahn's book ''On Thermonuclear War'', he began a correspondence with him which led to face-to-face discussions between Kubrick and Kahn.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Maloney |first1=Sean |title=Deconstructing Dr. Strangelove: The Secret History of Nuclear War Films |date=2020 |publisher=Potomac Books |isbn=9781640121928 |page=24 |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=xCngDwAAQBAJ&dq=Kubrick+thermonuclear+war+kahn&pg=PA24 |access-date=10 August 2022}}</ref> In the film, Dr. Strangelove refers to a report on the Doomsday Machine by the "BLAND Corporation". Kahn gave Kubrick the idea for the "[[Doomsday device|Doomsday Machine]]", a device which would immediately cause the destruction of the entire planet in the event of a nuclear attack. Both the name and the concept of the weapon are drawn from the text of ''On Thermonuclear War''.<ref name="newyorker.com">[http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/06/27/fat-man "Fat Man – Herman Kahn and the Nuclear Age"], Louis Menand, ''The New Yorker'', June 27, 2005</ref> Louis Menand observes, "In Kahn’s book, the Doomsday Machine is an example of the sort of deterrent that appeals to the military mind but that is dangerously destabilizing. Since nations are not suicidal, its only use is to threaten."<ref name="newyorker.com"/> Kahn also inspired the character of Professor Groeteschele ([[Walter Matthau]]) in the 1964 film ''[[Fail Safe (1964 film)|Fail Safe]]''.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2020/05/shut-in-movie-club-fail-safe-coronavirus|title = Watching Fail Safe at the End of the World|website = [[Vanity Fair (magazine)|Vanity Fair]]|date = 8 May 2020}}</ref> == Publications == Outside physics and statistics, works written by Kahn include: * 1960. ''[[On Thermonuclear War]]''. Princeton University Press. {{ISBN|0-313-20060-2}} * 1962. ''Thinking about the unthinkable''. Horizon Press. * 1965. ''On escalation: metaphors and scenarios''. Praeger. {{ISBN|1-41283004-4}} * 1967. ''The Year 2000: a framework for speculation on the next thirty-three years''. MacMillan. {{ISBN|0-02-560440-6}}. With Anthony Wiener. * 1968. ''Can we win in Viet Nam?'' Praeger. Kahn with four other authors: Gastil, Raymond D.; Pfaff, William; Stillman, Edmund; Armbruster, Frank E. * 1970. ''The emerging Japanese Superstate: challenge and response''. Prentice Hall. {{ISBN|0-13-274670-0}} * 1971. ''The Japanese challenge: The success and failure of economic success''. Morrow; Andre Deutsch. {{ISBN|0-688-08710-8}} * 1972. ''Things to come: thinking about the seventies and eighties''. MacMillan. {{ISBN|0-02-560470-8}}. With B. Bruce-Briggs. * 1973. ''Herman Kahnsciousness: the megaton ideas of the one-man think tank''. New American Library. Selected and edited by Jerome Agel. * 1974. ''The future of the corporation''. Mason & Lipscomb. {{ISBN|0-88405-009-2}} * 1976. ''The next 200 years: a scenario for America and the world''. Morrow. {{ISBN|0-688-08029-4}} * 1979. ''World economic development: 1979 and beyond''. William Morrow; Croom Helm. {{ISBN|0-688-03479-9}}. With Hollender, Jeffrey, and Hollender, John A. * 1981. ''Will she be right? The future of Australia''. University of Queensland Press. {{ISBN|0-7022-1569-4}}. With Thomas Pepper. * 1983. ''The Coming Boom: economic, political, and social''. Simon & Schuster; Hutchinson. {{ISBN|0-671-49265-9}} * 1984 ''Thinking about the unthinkable in the 1980s''. New York: Simon and Schuster. {{ISBN|0-671-47544-4}} * ''The nature and feasibility of war, deterrence, and arms control'' (Central nuclear war monograph series), (Hudson Institute) * ''A slightly optimistic world context for 1975–2000'' (Hudson Institute) * ''Social limits to growth: "creeping stagnation" vs. "natural and inevitable"'' (HPS paper) * ''A new kind of class struggle in the United States?'' (Corporate Environment Program. Research memorandum) Works published by the [[RAND Corporation]] involving Kahn: * ''[https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P1888.html The nature and feasibility of war and deterrence]'', RAND Corporation paper P-1888-RC, 1960 * ''[https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM2206/ Some specific suggestions for achieving early non-military defense capabilities and initiating long-range programs]'', RAND Corporation research memorandum RM-2206-RC, 1958 * (team led by Herman Kahn) ''[https://web.archive.org/web/20011023022548/http://texaschapbookpress.com/magellanslog41/escalation.htm Report on a study of Non-Military Defense]'', RAND Corporation report R-322-RC, 1958 * Herman Kahn and [[Irwin Mann]], ''[https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P1167/ War Gaming]'', RAND Corporation paper P-1167, 1957 * Herman Kahn and Irwin Mann, ''[https://web.archive.org/web/20011023022548/http://texaschapbookpress.com/magellanslog41/escalation.htm Ten common pitfalls]'', RAND research memorandum RM-1937-PR, 1957 * Herman Kahn, ''Stochastic (Monte Carlo) attenuation analysis'', Santa, Monica, Calif., RAND Corp., 1949 == See also == * [[Nuclear triad]] == Notes == {{reflist}} == Further reading == * [[Barry Bruce-Briggs]], ''Supergenius: The mega-worlds of Herman Kahn'', North American Policy Press * [[Samuel T. Cohen]], [https://archive.org/details/ConfessionsOfTheFatherOfTheNeutronBomb Fuck You Mr. President: Confessions of the Father of the Neutron Bomb"], 2006 * [[Daniel Ellsberg]], ''The Doomsday Machine, Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner'', Bloomsbury Press, 2017 * Sharon Ghamari-Tabrizi, ''[https://archive.org/details/worldsofhermanka00gham The Worlds of Herman Kahn: The Intuitive Science of Thermonuclear War]'', Harvard University Press, {{ISBN|0-674-01714-5}} [reviewed by Christopher Coker in the ''Times Literary Supplement''], nº 5332, June 10, 2005, p.&nbsp;19. * [[Fred Kaplan (journalist)|Fred Kaplan]], ''The Wizards of Armageddon'', Stanford Nuclear Age Series, {{ISBN|0-8047-1884-9}} * Kate Lenkowsky, ''The Herman Kahn Center of the Hudson Institute'', Hudson Institute * Susan Lindee, ''Science as Comic Metaphysics'', ''Science'' 309: 383–384, 2005. * Herbert I. London, foreword by Herman Kahn, ''Why Are They Lying to Our Children'' (Against the doomsayer futurists), {{ISBN|0-9673514-2-1}} * [[Louis Menand]], ''Fat Man: Herman Kahn and the Nuclear Age'', in ''The New Yorker'', June 27, 2005. * Claus Pias, "Hermann Kahn – Szenarien für den Kalten Krieg", Zurich: Diaphanes 2009, {{ISBN|978-3-935300-90-2}} * Innes Thacker, ''Ideological Control and the Depoliticisation of Language'', in Bold, Christine (ed.), ''[[Cencrastus]]'' No. 2, Spring 1980, pp. 30–33, {{issn|0264-0856}} == External links == {{Wikiquote}} * [https://web.archive.org/web/20021214094104/http://www.alteich.com/links/kahn.htm Essays about and by Herman Kahn] * {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20011023022548/http://texaschapbookpress.com/magellanslog41/escalation.htm |date=October 23, 2001 |title=Kahn's "escalation ladder" }} * [https://web.archive.org/web/20040902085658/http://trace.ntu.ac.uk/frame2/articles/borg/kahn.html "Herman Kahn's Doomsday Machine"] by Andrew Yale Glikman, in [https://web.archive.org/web/20110408023244/http://tracearchive.ntu.ac.uk/frame2/glikman.htm "CYB + ORG = (COLD) WAR MACHINE", FrAme], September 26, 1999. * [https://www.rand.org/pubs/authors/k/kahn_herman.html RAND Corporation unclassified papers by Herman Kahn, 1948–1959] * [https://web.archive.org/web/20060506181905/http://www.hudson.org/learn/index.cfm?fuseaction=staff_bio&eid=HermanKahn Hudson Institute unclassified articles and papers by Herman Kahn, 1962–1984] {{Authority control}} {{DEFAULTSORT:Kahn, Herman}} [[Category:1922 births]] [[Category:1983 deaths]] [[Category:People from Bayonne, New Jersey]] [[Category:Jewish American military personnel]] [[Category:American atheists]] [[Category:Jewish atheists]] [[Category:American futurologists]] [[Category:Political realists]] [[Category:American systems scientists]] [[Category:Jewish scientists]] [[Category:RAND Corporation people]] [[Category:People from Chappaqua, New York]] [[Category:People from Croton-on-Hudson, New York]] [[Category:Nuclear strategists]] [[Category:California Institute of Technology alumni]] [[Category:University of California, Los Angeles alumni]] [[Category:Hudson Institute]] [[Category:Scientists from New York (state)]] [[Category:Theoretical historians]] [[Category:Cornucopians]]'