2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky
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| Elections in Kentucky |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky is currently taking place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Kentucky voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Kentucky has 8 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
A Southern state completely in the Bible Belt, Republicans have won Kentucky by double digits since 2000. The state last voted Democratic for fellow Southerner Bill Clinton in 1996.
Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[2] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[3] Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.
Former Republican President Donald Trump ran for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after losing in 2020.[4]
The AP projected that Trump won the 2024 election almost immediately after polls ended at 6:00 PM.[5]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Kentucky Democratic presidential primary was held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 131,449 | 71.33% | 43 | 43 | |
| Uncommitted | 32,908 | 17.86% | 8 | 8 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 11,190 | 6.07% | 0 | ||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 8,744 | 4.74% | 0 | ||
| Total: | 184,291 | 100.00% | 53 | 6 | 59 |
Republican primary
The Kentucky Republican caucuses were held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 215,044 | 85.0% | 46 | 46 | |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 16,232 | 6.4% | |||
| Uncommitted | 8,984 | 3.5% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 7,803 | 3.1% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 2,461 | 1.0% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 1,640 | 0.7% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 900 | 0.4% | |||
| Total: | 253,064 | 100.0% | 46 | 46 | |
General election
Candidates
The following candidates have qualified for the general election ballot as of September 8:[8]
- Donald Trump — Republican
- Kamala Harris — Democratic
- Jill Stein — Kentucky Party (national Green nominee)
- Shiva Ayyadurai — Independent
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — Independent[a]
- Chase Oliver — Libertarian
Additionally, Kentucky voters have the option to write-in a name for president as long as said candidate files for office before October 25.[9]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[10] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[11] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[13] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[14] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[15] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[16] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[17] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[18] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[19] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[20][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 402 (LV) | – | 60% | 35% | 5% |
| Emerson College[21] | October 1–3, 2023 | 450 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[22] | August 9–10, 2023 | 737 (V) | – | 55% | 34% | 11% |
| co/efficient (R)[23] | May 18–19, 2023 | 987 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 57% | 33% | 10% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[20][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 402 (LV) | – | 52% | 35% | 13% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[20][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 402 (LV) | – | 61% | 29% | 10% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 149,374 | 72.32% | |||
| Democratic | 54,247 | 26.26% | |||
| Independent |
|
1,372 | 0.66% | ||
| Kentucky | 952 | 0.46% | |||
| Libertarian | 411 | 0.20% | |||
| Write-in | 100 | 0.05% | |||
| Independent |
|
92 | 0.04% | ||
| Total votes | 206,548 | 100.00% | |||
See also
- United States presidential elections in Kentucky
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
- ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
- ^ Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024". CNN.com. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
- ^
- "Election 2024 live updates: Latest news and results as voters head to the polls to vote for Trump or Harris". nbcnews.com. NBC News. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
- "Election 2024: Presidential results". cnn.com. CNN. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
- "Election Day 2024 live updates as Trump-Harris polls remain tied, U.S. gets out to vote". cbsnews.com. CBS News. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
- "2024 presidential election live updates: Americans head to the polls to choose between Harris or Trump". apnews.com. AP News. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
- "Election Day 2024: Live results and analysis". abcnews.go.com. ABC News. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
- ^ "Kentucky Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
- ^ "Kentucky Presidential Primary". The AP. July 2, 2024. Retrieved July 12, 2024.
- ^ "Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State". Kentucky Secretary of State. Retrieved September 8, 2024.
- ^ "Potential Candidates" (PDF). Kentucky Secretary of State. Retrieved September 8, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 6, 2023). "Kentucky 2023 Poll: Beshear Holds 16-Point Lead Over Cameron in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "Kentucky Survey Results" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. August 10, 2023.
- ^ "Kentucky Governor Memo 5.21 - co/efficient". co/efficient. May 22, 2023. Archived from the original on May 22, 2023.
- ^ "Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State". Kentucky SOS. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
