2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota
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| Elections in North Dakota |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
On election night, Trump carried the state with an overwhelming victory margin of 36.45%, the highest out of any Republican presidential victory in the state since 1980.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The North Dakota Democratic primary was held mostly through mail in ballots. Limited in person voting was held, and all ballots were due March 30, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 840 | 92.4% | 13 | 13 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 31 | 3.4% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 16 | 1.8% | |||
| Cenk Uygur (withdrawn) | 13 | 1.4% | |||
| Eban Cambridge | 4 | 0.4% | |||
| Stephen Lyons (withdrawn) | 3 | 0.3% | |||
| Jason Palmer | 2 | 0.2% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 0 | 0% | |||
| Total: | 909 | 100.0% | 13 | 4 | 17 |
Republican caucuses
[edit]The North Dakota Republican caucuses were held on March 4, 2024, one day before Super Tuesday, where 15 states and 865 total delegates were up for election.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 1,632 | 84.43% | 29 | 0 | 29 |
| Nikki Haley | 273 | 14.12% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Stuckenberg | 19 | 0.98% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 9 | 0.47% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 1,933 | 100.00% | 29 | 0 | 29 |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[4] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[5] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[7] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[8] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[9] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[10] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[11] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[12] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[13] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic–NPL |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners (D)[14][A] | September 23–26, 2024 | 500 (LV) | – | 50% | 40% | 10% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic–NPL |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence (R)[15][B] | September 28–30, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 59% | 32% | 1% | 8% |
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic–NPL |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[16][C] | June 15–19, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 62% | 28% | 10% |
| John Zogby Strategies[17][D] | April 13–21, 2024 | 300 (LV) | – | 55% | 37% | 8% |
| Emerson College[18] | October 1–4, 2023 | 419 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 54% | 17% | 28% |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[17][D] | April 13–21, 2024 | 300 (LV) | – | 51% | 36% | 13% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic–NPL |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[17][D] | April 13–21, 2024 | 300 (LV) | – | 58% | 30% | 12% |
Results
[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 246,505 | 66.96% |  1.85%
| ||
| Democratic–NPL | 112,327 | 30.51% |  1.27%
| ||
| Libertarian | 6,227 | 1.69% | 0.91%
| ||
| Write-in | 3,096 | 0.84% | 0.31%
| ||
| Total votes | 368,155 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
By county
[edit]| County | Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic-NPL |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 962 | 80.10% | 215 | 17.90% | 24 | 2.00% | 747 | 62.20% | 1,201 |
| Barnes | 3,531 | 66.14% | 1,661 | 31.11% | 147 | 2.75% | 1,870 | 35.03% | 5,339 |
| Benson | 1,163 | 58.09% | 795 | 39.71% | 44 | 2.20% | 368 | 18.38% | 2,002 |
| Billings | 543 | 83.93% | 93 | 14.37% | 11 | 1.70% | 450 | 69.56% | 647 |
| Bottineau | 2,628 | 76.24% | 735 | 21.32% | 84 | 2.44% | 1,893 | 54.92% | 3,447 |
| Bowman | 1,384 | 85.54% | 207 | 12.79% | 27 | 1.67% | 1,177 | 72.75% | 1,618 |
| Burke | 909 | 86.08% | 130 | 12.31% | 17 | 1.61% | 779 | 73.77% | 1,056 |
| Burleigh | 36,595 | 70.02% | 14,215 | 27.20% | 1,453 | 2.78% | 22,380 | 42.82% | 52,263 |
| Cass | 47,873 | 52.69% | 40,304 | 44.36% | 2,674 | 2.94% | 7,569 | 8.33% | 90,851 |
| Cavalier | 1,461 | 73.53% | 491 | 24.71% | 35 | 1.76% | 970 | 48.82% | 1,987 |
| Dickey | 1,829 | 74.56% | 557 | 22.71% | 67 | 2.73% | 1,272 | 51.85% | 2,453 |
| Divide | 914 | 76.10% | 253 | 21.07% | 34 | 2.83% | 661 | 55.03% | 1,201 |
| Dunn | 1,877 | 83.72% | 332 | 14.81% | 33 | 1.47% | 1,545 | 68.91% | 2,242 |
| Eddy | 862 | 71.54% | 316 | 26.22% | 27 | 2.24% | 546 | 45.32% | 1,205 |
| Emmons | 1,697 | 87.93% | 205 | 10.62% | 28 | 1.45% | 1,492 | 77.31% | 1,930 |
| Foster | 1,326 | 77.86% | 335 | 19.67% | 42 | 2.47% | 991 | 58.19% | 1,703 |
| Golden Valley | 847 | 85.47% | 122 | 12.31% | 22 | 2.22% | 725 | 73.16% | 991 |
| Grand Forks | 18,123 | 57.70% | 12,469 | 39.70% | 819 | 2.61% | 5,654 | 18.00% | 30,970 |
| Grant | 1,076 | 82.39% | 205 | 15.70% | 25 | 1.91% | 871 | 66.69% | 1,306 |
| Griggs | 963 | 74.71% | 301 | 23.35% | 25 | 1.94% | 662 | 51.36% | 1,289 |
| Hettinger | 1,089 | 83.38% | 192 | 14.70% | 25 | 1.92% | 897 | 68.68% | 1,306 |
| Kidder | 1,137 | 81.33% | 238 | 17.02% | 23 | 1.64% | 899 | 64.31% | 1,398 |
| LaMoure | 1,614 | 76.02% | 453 | 21.34% | 56 | 2.64% | 1,161 | 54.68% | 2,123 |
| Logan | 898 | 86.93% | 117 | 11.33% | 18 | 1.74% | 781 | 75.60% | 1,033 |
| McHenry | 2,223 | 80.78% | 479 | 17.41% | 50 | 1.82% | 1,744 | 63.37% | 2,752 |
| McIntosh | 1,132 | 81.44% | 229 | 16.47% | 29 | 2.09% | 903 | 64.97% | 1,390 |
| McKenzie | 4,627 | 83.81% | 809 | 14.65% | 85 | 1.54% | 3,818 | 69.16% | 5,521 |
| McLean | 4,231 | 78.05% | 1,093 | 20.16% | 97 | 1.79% | 3,138 | 57.89% | 5,421 |
| Mercer | 3,798 | 83.38% | 672 | 14.75% | 85 | 1.87% | 3,126 | 68.63% | 4,555 |
| Morton | 12,839 | 75.36% | 3,748 | 22.00% | 449 | 2.63% | 9,091 | 53.36% | 17,036 |
| Mountrail | 2,877 | 70.64% | 1,125 | 27.62% | 71 | 1.74% | 1,752 | 43.02% | 4,073 |
| Nelson | 1,141 | 64.79% | 580 | 32.94% | 40 | 2.27% | 561 | 31.85% | 1,761 |
| Oliver | 909 | 83.62% | 156 | 14.35% | 22 | 2.03% | 753 | 69.27% | 1,087 |
| Pembina | 2,350 | 75.51% | 704 | 22.62% | 58 | 1.86% | 1,646 | 52.89% | 3,112 |
| Pierce | 1,493 | 75.79% | 439 | 22.28% | 38 | 1.93% | 1,054 | 53.51% | 1,970 |
| Ramsey | 3,609 | 68.89% | 1,513 | 28.88% | 117 | 2.24% | 2,096 | 40.01% | 5,239 |
| Ransom | 1,661 | 62.70% | 920 | 34.73% | 68 | 2.57% | 740 | 27.97% | 2,649 |
| Renville | 993 | 82.20% | 179 | 14.82% | 36 | 2.98% | 814 | 67.38% | 1,208 |
| Richland | 5,576 | 67.50% | 2,473 | 29.94% | 212 | 2.57% | 3,103 | 37.56% | 8,261 |
| Rolette | 1,427 | 35.02% | 2,567 | 62.99% | 81 | 1.99% | -1,140 | -27.97% | 4,075 |
| Sargent | 1,325 | 64.86% | 663 | 32.45% | 55 | 2.69% | 662 | 32.41% | 2,043 |
| Sheridan | 644 | 85.07% | 101 | 13.34% | 12 | 1.59% | 543 | 71.73% | 757 |
| Sioux | 285 | 29.91% | 654 | 68.63% | 14 | 1.46% | -369 | -38.72% | 953 |
| Slope | 351 | 90.23% | 33 | 8.48% | 5 | 1.28% | 318 | 81.75% | 389 |
| Stark | 12,323 | 81.61% | 2,473 | 16.38% | 304 | 2.01% | 9,850 | 65.23% | 15,100 |
| Steele | 622 | 61.28% | 367 | 36.16% | 26 | 2.57% | 255 | 25.12% | 1,015 |
| Stutsman | 7,185 | 70.90% | 2,692 | 26.56% | 257 | 2.53% | 4,493 | 44.34% | 10,134 |
| Towner | 796 | 71.45% | 289 | 25.94% | 29 | 2.60% | 507 | 45.51% | 1,114 |
| Traill | 2,650 | 64.40% | 1,359 | 33.03% | 106 | 2.58% | 1,291 | 31.37% | 4,115 |
| Walsh | 3,186 | 70.86% | 1,173 | 26.09% | 137 | 3.05% | 2,013 | 44.77% | 4,496 |
| Ward | 20,635 | 72.27% | 7,215 | 25.27% | 702 | 2.46% | 13,420 | 47.00% | 28,552 |
| Wells | 1,815 | 80.56% | 405 | 17.98% | 33 | 1.47% | 1,410 | 62.58% | 2,253 |
| Williams | 12,501 | 82.67% | 2,276 | 15.05% | 345 | 2.28% | 10,225 | 67.62% | 15,122 |
| Totals | 246,505 | 66.96% | 112,327 | 30.51% | 9,323 | 2.53% | 134,178 | 36.45% | 368,155 |
Analysis
[edit]A sparsely-populated Great Plains state with a predominantly White populace and electorate, North Dakota has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson won it in his nationwide 1964 landslide. Furthermore, it has only been decided by single digits in three presidential elections since 1964: 1976, 1996, and 2008. Agribusiness and the recent oil boom have played a key role in cementing the GOP's overwhelming popularity in the state.
North Dakota is considered a deeply red state, and Republican nominee and former president Donald Trump won it by over 30 percentage points in both 2016 and 2020. In terms of popular vote percentage, North Dakota was Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver's strongest state, with 1.7 percent.[20]
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in North Dakota
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by the campaign of Katrina Christiansen, the Democratic nominee for North Dakota's Class 1 Senate seat
- ^ Poll sponsored by North Dakota News Cooperative
- ^ Poll sponsored by Brighter Future Alliance
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
- ^ "North Dakota Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 29, 2024.
- ^ Yoon, Robert (February 29, 2024). "AP Decision Notes: What to expect in North Dakota's GOP caucuses". The AP. Retrieved March 3, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ "Katrina Christiansen for Senate - November 2024 General Election" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight. October 1, 2024.
- ^ Standaert, Michael (October 2, 2024). "Poll: Republicans look set for sweep of top races". North Dakota News Cooperative.
- ^ Bolger, Glen; Nassar, George (June 26, 2024). "KEY FINDINGS – NORTH DAKOTA STATEWIDE SURVEY" (PDF). Public Opinion Strategies.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 15, 2023). "North Dakota 2024 Poll: Senator Cramer with Comfortable Lead Over Democratic Challenger". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "Official (without recounts) 2024 General Election Results". Vote.nd.gov. Retrieved November 22, 2024.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
