2008 Opinion polling for the United States Senate elections

This article provides a collection of scientific, state-wide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the United States of America (U.S.) Senate elections, 2008. The National Journal/Hotline rankings are based on predictions of the likelihood of seat switching party control.

Opinion polling

Democratic Incumbents

Louisiana

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 5
Incumbent: Mary Landrieu

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Mary Landrieu	Republican: John Kennedy
Southern Media & Opinion Research	March 26 - April 9, 2008	50%	38%
Survey USA	December 13, 2007	46%	42%
Zogby International	November 29, 2007	38%	45%

Massachusetts

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 25
Incumbent: John Kerry

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: John Kerry	Republican: Jeff Beatty/Jim Ogonowski
Rasmussen Reports	April 22,2008	55% 53%	30% 31%

Michigan

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 26
Incumbent: Carl Levin

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Carl Levin	Republican: Jack Hoogendyk
Rasmussen Reports	May 7, 2008	54%	37%

Montana

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 18
Incumbent: Max Baucus

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Max Baucus	Republican: Mike Lange
Mason-Dixon	Dec 17-19, 2007	63%	25%

New Jersey

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 13
Incumbent: Frank Lautenberg

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Frank Lautenberg	Republican: Joe Pennacchio
Rasmussen Reports	April 2, 2008	54%	36%
Rasmussen Reports	February 27, 2008	46%	38%
News Day	January 20, 2008	40%	25%

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Frank Lautenberg	Republican: Murray Sabrin
Rasmussen Reports	April 2, 2008	54%	35%
Rasmussen Reports	February 27, 2008	46%	31%

South Dakota

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 14
Incumbent: Tim Johnson

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Tim Johnson	Republican: Joel Dykstra
Rasmussen Reports	March 4, 2008	63%	28%

Republican Incumbents

Alaska

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 9
Incumbent: Ted Stevens

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Mark Begich	Republican: Ted Stevens
Rasmussen Reports	April 7, 2008	45%	46%
Research 2000	December 3 - 6, 2007	47%	41%

Alabama

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 23
Incumbent: Jeff Sessions

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Vivian Davis Figures	Republican: Jeff Sessions
Rasmussen Reports	April 2, 2008	36%	57%
Rasmussen Reports	November 14, 2007	30%	62%
SurveyUSA	August 25 - 27, 2007	37%	59%

Colorado

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 4
Incumbent: None

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Mark Udall	Republican: Bob Schaffer
Rasmussen Reports	April 16, 2008	45%	42%
New Leadership USA/TargetPoint	March 31-April 7, 2008	45%	45%
Rasmussen Reports	March 17, 2008	46%	43%
McLaughlin & Associates	March 6-March 9, 2008	44%	32%
Rasmussen Reports	February 11, 2008	43%	44%
Research for Change	December 3-December 5, 2007	39%	37%
Rasmussen Reports	November 28, 2007	41%	42%
SurveyUSA	October 27-October 30, 2007	48%	41%
Ciruli Associates Poll	September 12-September 15, 2007	36%	35%
Hill Research Consultants	August 26-August 28, 2007	45%	40%

Georgia

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 21
Incumbent: Saxby Chambliss

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Dale Cardwell/Vernon Jones/Jim Martin	Republican: Saxby Chambliss
Rasmussen Reports	May 6, 2008	37% 30% 33%	51% 58% 54%
Rasmussen Reports	March 20, 2008	36% 30% 33%	52% 56% 51%

Idaho

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 20
Incumbent: None

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Larry LaRocco	Republican: Jim Risch
Survey USA	September 6-September 8, 2007	36%	52%

Maine

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 7
Incumbent: Susan Collins

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Tom Allen	Republican: Susan Collins
Rasmussen Reports	April 1, 2008	38%	54%
McLaughlin & Associates	March 6-March 9, 2008	31%	54%
Critical Insights	October 12-October 30, 2007	34%	54%
Survey USA	October 26-October 29, 2007	38%	55%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 15-October 17, 2007	33%	56%

Minnesota

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 6
Incumbent: Norm Coleman

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Al Franken	Republican: Norm Coleman
Survey USA	April 30-May 1, 2008	42%	52%
Rasmussen Reports	April 22, 2008	43%	50%
Rasmussen Reports	March 19, 2008	46%	48%
Survey USA	March 12, 2008	41%	51%
McLaughlin & Associates	March 6-March 9, 2008	40%	46%
Minnesota Public Radio/Humphrey Institute for Public Affairs	January 20-January 27, 2008	43%	40%
Minnesota Public Radio/Mason Dixon	May 7-May 9, 2007	32%	54%

Nebraska

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 15
Incumbent: None

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Scott Kleeb	Republican: Mike Johanns
Research 2000/Daily Kos	November 12-November 14, 2007	28%	59%

New Hampshire

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 3
Incumbent: John Sununu

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Jeanne Shaheen	Republican: John Sununu
Rasmussen Reports	April 30, 2008	51%	43%
American Research Group	March 14-March 17, 2008	47%	33%
Rasmussen Reports	March 16, 2008	49%	41%
University of New Hampshire	January 18-January 27, 2008	55%	37%
Survey USA	October 26-October 29, 2007	53%	42%

New Mexico

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 2
Incumbent: None

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Tom Udall	Republican: Steve Pearce/Heather Wilson
Rasmussen Reports	April 8, 2008	54% 56%	40% 36%
New Mexico State University	January 22-January 31, 2008	53% 52%	31% 36%
Survey USA	November 16-November 19, 2007	54% 56%	40% 41%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	November 5-November 7, 2007	54% 55%	37% 38%
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates	October 23-October 27, 2007	50% 52%	33% 36%

North Carolina

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 12
Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Kay Hagan	Republican: Elizabeth Dole
Rasmussen Reports	May 8, 2008	48%	47%
Rasmussen Reports	April 10, 2008	39%	52%
Public Policy Polling	February 18, 2008	33%	50%

Oregon

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 8
Incumbent: Gordon Smith

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Jeff Merkley/Steve Novick	Republican: Gordon Smith
Rasmussen Reports	May 7, 2008	42% 41%	45% 47%
Rasmussen Reports	February 13, 2007	30% 35%	48% 48%

Tennessee

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 30
Incumbent: Lamar Alexander

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Mike Padgett/Bob Tuke	Republican: Lamar Alexander
Rasmussen Reports	April 3, 2007	31% 30%	58% 59%

Texas

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 16
Incumbent: John Cornyn

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Rick Noriega	Republican: John Cornyn
Research 2000/Daily Kos	May 5 - May 7, 2008	44%	48%
Rasmussen Reports	May 1, 2008	43%	47%
Research 2000	September 24 - 26, 2007	35%	51%
Rasmussen	September 18, 2007	30%	53%

Virginia

National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 1
Incumbent: None

Poll Source	Dates administered	Democrat: Mark Warner	Republican: Jim Gilmore
Rasmussen Reports	April 1, 2008	55%	39%
Rasmussen Reports	February 21, 2008	57%	37%
Rasmussen Reports	January 3, 2008	53%	38%
SurveyUSA	November 5, 2007	57%	35%
Rasmussen Reports	October 30, 2007	53%	37%
Washington Post	October 12, 2007	61%	31%
Christopher Newport University	October 1, 2007	51%	27%
Survey USA	September 17, 2007	60%	32%
Rasmussen Reports	September 6, 2007	54%	34%

Senate Primary Polling

Kentucky Democratic Primary winner: To be determined
Primary Date: May 20 2008

Poll source	Date	Highlights
Survey USA Sample size: 595 Margin of error: ± 4%	May 3 - May 5 2008	Bruce Lunsford 41%, Greg Fischer 22%, David Williams 5%, Michael Cassaro 5%, Kenneth Stepp 4%, James Rice 3%, David Wylie 3%, Other 12%, Undecided 4%
Survey USA Sample size: 555 Margin of error: ± 4.2%	April 26 - April 28 2008	Bruce Lunsford 43%, Greg Fischer 18%, David Williams 7%, James Rice 4%, Kenneth Stepp 4%, Michael Cassaro 3%, David Wylie 2%, Other 12%, Undecided 6%
Survey USA Sample size: 557 Margin of error: ± 4.2%	April 12 - April 14 2008	Bruce Lunsford 47%, Greg Fischer 9%, David Williams 8%, James Rice 5%, Michael Cassaro 5%, David Wylie 3%, Kenneth Stepp 1%, Other 14%, Undecided 8%
Survey USA Sample size: 572 Margin of error: ± 4.2%	March 28 - March 30 2008	Bruce Lunsford 42%, David Williams 11%, Greg Fischer 6%, James Rice 5%, David Wylie 5%, Michael Cassaro 4%, Kenneth Stepp 3%, Other 17%, Undecided 8%

New Jersey Democratic Primary winner: To be determined
Primary Date: June 3 2008

Poll source	Date	Highlights
Joel Benenson	April 1 - April 2 2008	Frank Lautenberg 52%, Rob Andrews 21%, Other/Undecided 37%

Oregon Democratic Primary winner: To be determined
Primary Date: May 20 2008

Poll source	Date	Highlights
Survey USA Sample size: 650 Margin of error: ± 3.9%	April 28 - April 30 2008	Steve Novick 30%, Jeff Merkley 28%, Candy Neville 8%, Roger Obrist 4%, David Loera 2%, Pavel Goberman 2%, Other/Undecided 26%
Survey USA Sample size: 597 Margin of error: ± 4.1%	April 4 - April 6 2008	Steve Novick 23%, Candy Neville 12%, Jeff Merkley 11%, David Loera 6%, Roger Obrist 5%, Pavel Goberman 3%, Other/Undecided 40%

Other 2008 Senate Races

Incumbents in Bold

State	Primary Date	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Arkansas National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 24	May 20, 2008	Mark Pryor	None	Rebekeh Kennedy(Green)
Delaware National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 31	September 9, 2008	Joe Biden	None	None
Illinois National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 28	February 5, 2008	Richard Durbin	Steve Sauerberg	None
Iowa National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 19	June 3, 2008	Tom Harkin	George Eichhorn Steve Rathje Christopher Reed	None
Kansas National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 29	August 5, 2008	Lee Jones	Pat Roberts	None
Kentucky National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 11	May 20, 2008	Mike Cassaro Greg Fischer Bruce Lunsford James Rice Kenneth Stepp David Williams David Wylie	Mitch McConnell Daniel Essek	None
Mississippi National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 32	March 11, 2008	Erik Fleming	Thad Cochran	None
Mississippi Special Election to Fill Trent Lott's Remaining 4 years National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 10	March 11, 2008	Ronnie Musgrove	Roger Wicker	None
Oklahoma National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 17	July 29, 2008	Andrew Rice	James Inhofe	None
Rhode Island National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 35	September 9, 2008	Jack Reed Chris Young	None	None
South Carolina National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 22	June 10, 2008	Michael Cone Bob Conley	Lindsey Graham Buddy Witherspoon	None
West Virginia National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 27	May 13, 2008	Jay Rockefeller Jay Wolfe	Sheirl Fletcher Billy Hendricks Jr.	None
Wyoming National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 36	August 19, 2008	None	Michael Enzi	None
Wyoming Special Election to Fill the Late Craig Thomas's Remaining 4 years National Journal/Hotline Ranking # 34	August 19, 2008	None	John Barrasso	None

Predicted Results Based on Polling and Predictions

Projected Composition of the 111th Congress: Democrats: 54(+5), Republicans: 44(-5), Independents: 2, Too Close to Call: 0

Republican Holds

• AL-Jeff Sessions
• AK-Ted Stevens
• GA-Saxby Chambliss
• ID-TBD
  • Larry Craig-retiring
• KS-Pat Roberts
• KY-Mitch McConnell
• ME-Susan Collins
• MN-Norm Coleman
• MS-Thad Cochran
• MS-Roger Wicker
• NE-TBD
  • Chuck Hagel-retiring
• NC-Elizabeth Dole
• OK-James Inhofe
• OR-Gordon Smith
• SC-Lindsey Graham
• TN-Lamar Alexander
• TX-John Cornyn
• WY-Michael Enzi
• WY-John Barrasso

Democratic Holds

• AR-Mark Pryor
• DE-Joseph Biden
• IL-Richard Durbin
• IA-Tom Harkin
• LA-Mary Landrieu
• MA-John Kerry
• MI-Carl Levin
• MT-Max Baucus
• NJ-Frank Lautenberg
• RI-Jack Reed
• SD-Tim Johnson
• WV-Jay Rockefeller

Swing Seats

• CO-Mark Udall (Democratic Gain)
  • Wayne Allard(R) Retiring
• NC-Kay Hagan (Democratic Gain)
  • Elizabeth Dole (R) Incumbent
• NH-Jeanne Shaheen (Democratic Gain)
  • John Sununu (R) Incumbent
• NM-Tom Udall (Democratic Gain)
  • Pete Domenici (R) Retiring
• VA-Mark Warner (Democratic Gain)
  • John Warner (R) Retiring

External Links

• Senate Elections
• Opinion Polling