2008 Hessian state election

2008 Hesse state election

27 January 2008
All 110 seats of the Landtag of Hesse 56 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	2,742,959 (64.3%) 0.3%
First party Second party Third party   Leader Roland Koch Andrea Ypsilanti Jörg-Uwe Hahn Party CDU SPD FDP Last election 56 seats, 48.8% 33 seats, 29.1% 9 seats, 7.9% Seats won 42 42 11 Seat change 14 9 2 Popular vote 1,009,775 1,006,263 258,550 Percentage 36.8% 36.7% 9.4% Swing 12.0% 7.6% 1.5%   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Tarek Al-Wazir Willi van Ooyen Party Greens Left Last election 12 seats, 10.1% Did not run Seats won 9 6 Seat change 3 6 Popular vote 206,610 140,769 Percentage 7.5% 5.1% Swing 2.6% 5.1%
Results for the single-member constituencies.
Minister-President before election Roland Koch CDU Elected Minister-President Roland Koch CDU

The 2008 Hessian state election was held on 27 January 2008 to elect the members of the Landtag of Hesse. The incumbent Christian Democratic Union (CDU) government led by Minister-President Roland Koch lost its majority. The result of the election was extremely close but inconclusive, with the CDU winning just 3,500 votes (0.1%) more than the Social Democratic Party (SPD). Due to the entrance of The Left to the Landtag, neither the CDU–FDP or SPD–Green bloc garnered a majority. After a year of failed attempts to form government, a new election was held.

Background and issues

The CDU won a majority in the 2003 state election, but lost popularity in the following years. In the 2008 election campaign, CDU Minister-President Roland Koch took a tough stance against immigrant youth violence as an electoral tactic. The political left criticised this as xenophobic. Other issues included minimum wage concerns, education, and controversy over the planned major expansion of the Rhine-Main airport.

The formation of The Left meant that a party to the left of the SPD and Greens stood a serious chance of entering the Landtag for the first time in decades. The party polled between 4 and 6 per cent in the lead-up to the election; it was unclear if the party would exceed the 5% threshold.

Polling data narrowed as the election approached; both the CDU and SPD and their junior partners the FDP and Greens were essentially tied. This meant that, if The Left entered the Landtag, it may hold the balance of power and make government formation difficult.

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the previous Landtag of Hesse.

Name			Ideology	Leader(s)	2003 result
					Votes (%)	Seats
	CDU	Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands	Christian democracy	Roland Koch	48.8%	56 / 110
	SPD	Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands	Social democracy	Andrea Ypsilanti	29.1%	33 / 110
	Grüne	Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen	Green politics	Tarek Al-Wazir	10.1%	12 / 110
	FDP	Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei	Classical liberalism	Jörg-Uwe Hahn	7.9%	9 / 110

Opinion polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CDU	SPD	Grüne	FDP	Linke	Others	Lead
2008 state election	27 January 2008	–	36.8	36.7	7.5	9.4	5.1	3.4	0.1
AMR Düsseldorf	23–24 Jan 2008	1,000	37	38	7	10	5	?	1
Forsa	22–24 Jan 2008	1,006	38–39	37–38	6–7	9–10	4–5	3–4	1
Forsa	14–18 Jan 2008	1,005	38	38	7	9	5	3	Tie
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	14–17 Jan 2008	1,100	38	37	8	8	5	4	1
GMS	15–16 Jan 2008	1,010	39	34	8	9	5	5	5
Infratest dimap	14–16 Jan 2008	1,000	38	37	7	8	6	3	1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	7–9 Jan 2008	1,000	40	36	7	8	5	?	4
Infratest dimap	3–8 Jan 2008	1,000	40	35	9	9	4	3	5
Emnid	10 Dec–2 Jan 2008	800	42	32	10	8	5	3	10
AMR Düsseldorf	29 Dec 2007	1,000	40	33	10	9	6	2	7
Forsa	3–7 Dec 2007	1,002	41	30	11	9	5	4	11
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	3–5 Dec 2007	1,052	40	34	9	7	6	4	6
Forsa	18–21 Sep 2007	1,001	43	30	9	8	5	5	13
Infratest dimap	3–5 Sep 2007	1,000	42	32	10	8	4	4	10
TNS Infratest	9–11 Jul 2007	1,000	40	33	11	7	5	4	7
Forsa	11–26 Jun 2007	1,012	41	27	11	9	6	6	14
Emnid	30 Apr–16 May 2007	599	40	32	11	9	4	4	8
Infratest dimap	19–21 Mar 2007	1,001	38	34	10	9	4	5	4
Forsa	26 Feb–13 Mar 2007	1,027	43	27	11	9	4	6	16
Forsa	20 Nov–12 Dec 2006	1,023	42	27	10	9	5	7	15
Forsa	14 Sep–11 Oct 2006	1,170	41	27	12	11	3	6	14
Forsa	15 May–9 Jun 2006	1,225	39	31	11	9	5	5	8
Infratest dimap	10–15 Mar 2006	1,002	40	35	10	7	4	4	4
Infratest dimap	19 Oct 2003	1,000	52	28	11	5	–	4	24
2003 state election	2 February 2003	–	48.8	29.1	10.1	7.9	–	3.4	19.7

Election result

Summary of the 27 January 2008 election results for the Landtag of Hesse

Party		Constituency			Party list				Total seats	+/-
		Votes	%	Seats	Votes	%	+/-	Seats
	Christian Democratic Union	1,068,358	39.13	28	1,009,775	36.81	-11.96	14	42	14
	Social Democratic Party	1,047,051	38.35	27	1,006,264	36.69	+7.60	15	42	9
	Free Democratic Party	196,004	7.18	0	258,550	9.43	+1.52	11	11	2
	Alliance 90/The Greens	206,250	7.55	0	205,610	7.53	-2.57	9	9	3
	The Left	106,975	3.92	0	140,769	5.13	New	6	6	New
	The Republicans	39,126	1.43	0	27,724	1.01	-0.25	0	0	0
	Free Voters	36,212	1.33	0	24,327	0.89	New	0	0	New
	National Democratic Party	17,627	0.65	0	24,004	0.88	New	0	0	New
	Human Environment Animal Protection Party	8,833	0.32	0	15,909	0.58	-0.17	0	0	0
	Family Party	1,243	0.05	0	7,817	0.28	New	0	0	New
	Pirate Party	–			6,962	0.25	New	0	0	New
	The Grays – Gray Panthers	717	0.03	0	4,810	0.18	New	0	0	New
	Alliance for Germany	238	0.01	0	3,130	0.11	New	0	0	New
	The Violets	–			2,380	0.09	New	0	0	New
	Independent Citizen Politics	595	0.02	0	1,775	0.06	New	0	0	New
	Civil Rights Movement Soliarity	361	0.01	0	1,118	0.04	-0.02	0	0	0
	Socialist Equality Party	–			1,035	0.04	-0.01	0	0	0
	Independents	595	0.02	0	–				0	0
Total		2,730,185	100.00	55	2,742,599	100.00		55	110	0
Invalid		80,888	2.88		68,114	2.42
Turnout		2,811,073	64.32		2,811,073	64.32	-0.30
Registered voters		4,370,463			4,370,463

Outcome

The CDU's share of the vote fell to its lowest level since the 1966 election. The SPD, under its leader Andrea Ypsilanti, increased its share of the vote substantially, from 29% to 37%; the SPD claimed victory as a result. The other winner was The Left, who narrowly entered the Hesse Landtag with 5.1% of the vote. This was the second western state legislature which the party had entered, the first being Bremen in 2007. The party also won seats in neighbouring Lower Saxony in an election held the same day.

The SPD and the CDU both won 42 seats; the FDP won 11 and the Greens 9. With 56 seats needed for a majority, neither was able to form a government with their traditional partners. There was a several-month-long lull after the election. The Left was thus kingmaker, exactly the result it had hoped for.

A traffic light coalition (SPD, FDP, Greens) would have held a majority (62), but was rejected by FDP, saying that they will only form a coalition with CDU or go into opposition.

SPD leader Ypsilanti had long refused to negotiate with The Left, but in October 2008 began talks to include them in a three-party "red-green-red" coalition with herself as Minister-President. This was a controversial move which sparked a revolt in the SPD, as many members bitterly refused to participate in power-sharing with The Left. One day before the election for Minister-President in the Landtag, four members of the SPD parliamentary group indicated they would not vote for her, and called a vote of no-confidence on her leadership. After this point, it became clear a red-red-green coalition was not viable. New elections were subsequently scheduled for January 2009.