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2019 St Isidore federal election

19 October 2019
All 59 seats in the House of Representatives 30 seats are needed for a majority All 14 seats in the Senate
Turnout	71.22%
First party Second party Third party   Leader John Kaneko Bill Williams Anne Martin Party National Party Liberal Progressive Leader since 2014 2018 2017 Leader's seat Corse (CS) Senator from Tichenor Mount Pleasant North Last election 14 seats, 24.5% 13 seats, 22.2% 12 seats, 20.9% Seats won 20 seats 11 seats 11 seats Seat change 6 2 1 Popular vote 122, 596 68, 552 67, 464 Percentage 33.8% 18.9% 18.6% Swing 9.3 3.3 2.3   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Dick Baldwin Margaret McAllum Party Labour Conservative Leader since 2011 2012 Leader's seat List Member List Member Last election 8 seats, 13.1% 4 seats, 6.4% Seats won 7 seats 3 seats Seat change 1 1 Popular vote 40, 986 19, 949 Percentage 11.3% 5.5% Swing 1.8 0.9
Premier before election John Kaneko National coalition Subsequent Prime Minister John Kaneko National coalition

The 2019 St Isidore federal election was held on Saturday 19 October 2019 to elect members of the 74th Parliament of St Isidore. The election had been called following the dissolution of the 73rd Parliament as elected at the 2016 St Isidore federal election. All 59 seats in the House of Representatives (lower house) and all 14 in the Senate (upper house) were up for election.

The second-term incumbent minority National Coalition Government, led by Premier John Kaneko, won a third three-year term by defeating the opposition Liberal Party, led by Opposition Leader Bill Williams. The National Party continued a minority with 20 seats, the Liberal Party finished with 11, and the Progressive Party also won 11, whilst the remaining seventeen seats were won by the Labour Party, Independent Conservatives, Christian Conservatives, Green Party, Libertarian Party and one independent.

The result was the first time since 2002 that a party had won with more than 30% of the popular vote. The National Party benefited from a stronger-than-expected showing in Tichenor, as well as in a decrease in votes for the Christian Conservatives, who won 4.4% of the vote. On election night, Williams declared his intention to stand down as leader of his party, but to remain in parliament.

Results

House of Representatives

House of Representatives – Turnout 71.22%

Party			Votes	%	Swing (pp)	Seats	Change (seats)
	National		122,596	33.8	+9.3	20	6
	Liberal		68,552	18.9	-3.3	11	2
	Progressive		488,817	3.43	+3.43	0
	One Nation		438,587	3.08	+1.79	0
	Katter's Australian		69,736	0.49	−0.05	1
	Centre Alliance		46,931	0.33	−1.52	1
	Independents		479,836	3.37	+0.56	3	1
	Other		587,528	4.12	−2.38	0
Total			14,253,393	100.00	–	151	1
Two-party-preferred vote
	Liberal/National Coalition		7,344,813	51.53	+1.17
	Labor		6,908,580	48.47	−1.17
Invalid/blank votes			835,223	5.54	+0.49	–	–
Registered voters/turnout			16,419,543	91.89	+0.89	–	–
Source: AEC Tally Room

Independents: Andrew Wilkie (Clark), Helen Haines (Indi), Zali Steggall (Warringah).

Popular vote Labor   33.34% Liberal   27.99% Greens   10.40% LNP (QLD)   8.67% National   4.51% UAP   3.43% One Nation   3.08% Katter's   0.49% Centre Alliance   0.33% CLP (NT)   0.27% Independents   3.37% Other   4.12%

Two-party-preferred vote Coalition   51.53% Labor   48.47%

Seats Coalition   50.99% Labor   45.03% Greens   0.66% Centre Alliance   0.66% Katter's   0.66% Independents   1.99%

Divisions changing party

Members in italics did not re-contest their House of Representatives seats at this election.

Seat	Pre-election				Swing	Post-election
	Party		Member	Margin		Margin	Member	Party
Bass, TAS		Labor	Ross Hart	5.42	5.83	0.41	Bridget Archer	Liberal
Braddon, TAS		Labor	Justine Keay	1.73	4.82	3.09	Gavin Pearce	Liberal
Chisholm, VIC		Independent	Julia Banks[1]	2.91	−2.34	0.57	Gladys Liu	Liberal
Corangamite, VIC		Liberal[2]	Sarah Henderson	−0.03	1.04	1.07	Libby Coker	Labor
Dunkley, VIC		Liberal[2]	Chris Crewther	−1.03	1.71	2.74	Peta Murphy	Labor
Gilmore, NSW		Liberal	Ann Sudmalis	0.73	3.34	2.61	Fiona Phillips	Labor
Herbert, QLD		Labor	Cathy O'Toole	0.02	8.38	8.36	Phillip Thompson	Liberal National
Lindsay, NSW		Labor	Emma Husar	1.11	6.15	5.04	Melissa McIntosh	Liberal
Indi, VIC		Independent	Cathy McGowan	5.10	−4.13	1.39	Helen Haines	Independent
Longman, QLD		Labor	Susan Lamb	0.79	4.07	3.28	Terry Young	Liberal National
Warringah, NSW		Liberal	Tony Abbott	11.09	N/A	7.24	Zali Steggall	Independent
Wentworth, NSW		Independent	Kerryn Phelps	1.22	N/A	1.31	Dave Sharma	Liberal

Notes

¹ Julia Banks was elected as the Liberal member for Chisholm in 2016, but resigned from the party in November 2018 and sat as an independent. She retired from Chisholm to contest the seat of Flinders.

² As a result of the 2018 boundary redistribution, the Victorian Liberal-held seats of Corangamite and Dunkley became notionally marginal Labor seats.

Senate

Government (35)
Coalition
  Liberal (26)
  Liberal National (6)
  National (2)
  Country Liberal (1)

Opposition (26)
  Labor (26)

Crossbench (15)
  Greens (9)
  Centre Alliance (2)
  One Nation (2)
  Lambie Network (1)
  Independent (1)  

Main article: Results of the 2019 Australian federal election (Senate)

Out of 40 Senate seats up for election, the Coalition won 19, while Labor won 13 seats. The Greens won 6 seats, while the only other minor party candidates elected were former senator Malcolm Roberts for One Nation in Queensland, and Jacqui Lambie (JLN) in Tasmania. The Senate crossbench became substantially smaller, with incumbent senators Derryn Hinch, Duncan Spender, Peter Georgiou, Brian Burston, and Fraser Anning, as well as former parliamentarians Clive Palmer and Skye Kakoschke-Moore, failing in their bids to win Senate seats.

Senate (STV) – Turnout 92.48% (CV)

Party			Votes	%	±	Seats
						Seats won	Not up	New total	Seat change
	Liberal/National Coalition
		Liberal/National joint ticket	3,152,483	21.59	+1.57	6	6	12	2
		Liberal	1,204,039	8.24	+0.53	9	7	16	2
		Liberal National (Qld)	1,128,730	7.73	+0.79	3	3	6	1
		Country Liberal (NT)	38,513	0.26	−0.00	1	0	1
		National	24,377	0.17	−0.08	0	0	0
	Coalition total		5,548,142	37.99	+2.80	19	16	35	5
	Labor		4,204,313	28.79	−1.01	13	13	26
	Greens		1,488,427	10.19	+1.54	6	3	9
	One Nation		788,203	5.40	+1.12	1	1	2	2
	United Australia		345,199	2.36	+1.86	0	0	0
	Liberal Democrats		169,735	1.16	−1.00	0	0	0	1
	Justice		105,459	0.72	−1.20	0	0	0	1
	Conservatives		102,769	0.70	+0.70	0	1	1
	Lambie Network		31,383	0.21	−0.28	1	0	1
	Centre Alliance		28,416	0.19	−3.10	0	2	2	1
	Other		1,792,879	12.28	+0.70	0	0	0
Total			14,604,925	100.00		40	36	76
Invalid/blank votes			579,160	3.81	−0.13	–	–	–	–
Registered voters/turnout			16,419,543	92.48	+0.55	–	–	–	–
Source: AEC Tally Room

Popular vote Labor   28.79% Liberal/National   21.59% Greens   10.19% Liberal   8.24% LNP (QLD)   7.73% One Nation   5.40% CLP (NT)   0.26% Lambie   0.21% National   0.17% Other   17.41%

Seats Coalition   47.50% Labor   32.50% Greens   15.00% One Nation   2.5% CLP (NT)   2.5% Lambie   2.5%

Background

Previous election

Main article: 2016 Australian federal election

The outcome of the 2016 federal election could not be determined on election night, with too many seats in doubt. After a week of vote counting, neither the incumbent Turnbull Government led by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull of the Liberal/National Coalition nor the Shorten Opposition led by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten of the Australian Labor Party had won enough seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives to form a majority government.

During the uncertain week following the election, Turnbull negotiated with the crossbench and secured confidence and supply support from Bob Katter and from independents Andrew Wilkie and Cathy McGowan in the event of a hung parliament and resulting minority government. During crossbench negotiations, Turnbull pledged additional staff and resources for crossbenchers, and stated "It is my commitment to work in every way possible to ensure that the crossbenchers have access to all of the information they need and all of the resources they need to be able to play the role they need in this parliament".

On 10 July, eight days after the election took place and following Turnbull's negotiations with the crossbench where he secured sufficient confidence and supply support, Shorten conceded defeat, acknowledging that the incumbent Coalition had enough seats to form either a minority or majority government. Turnbull claimed victory later that day. In the closest federal majority result since the 1961 election, the ABC declared on 11 July that the incumbent Coalition would be able to form a one-seat majority government.

It was the first election result since federation where the post-election opposition won more seats than the post-election government in both of Australia's two most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria.

Result

Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott lost his seat at the 2019 election after 25 years as Member for Warringah

See also: Results of the 2016 Australian federal election (House of Representatives) and Results of the 2016 Australian federal election (Senate)

In the 150-seat House of Representatives, the one-term incumbent Liberal/National Coalition government suffered a 14-seat swing, reducing it to 76 seats—a bare one-seat majority. With a national three-point two-party swing against the government, the Labor opposition picked up a significant number of previously government-held seats to gain a total of 69 seats. On the crossbench, the Greens, the Nick Xenophon Team, Katter's Australian Party, and independents Wilkie and McGowan won a seat each. On 19 July, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) announced a re-count for the Coalition-held but provisionally Labor-won Division of Herbert. At the start of the Herbert re-count, Labor led by eight votes. The AEC announced on 31 July that Labor had won Herbert by 37 votes.

The final outcome in the 76-seat Senate took more than four weeks to determine, despite significant voting changes. Earlier in 2016, legislation changed the Senate voting system from a full-preference single transferable vote with group voting tickets to an optional-preferential single transferable vote. The final Senate result was announced on 4 August: Liberal/National Coalition 30 seats (−3), Labor 26 seats (+1), Greens 9 seats (−1), One Nation 4 seats (+4) and Nick Xenophon Team 3 seats (+2). Derryn Hinch won a seat, while Jacqui Lambie, Liberal Democrat David Leyonhjelm and Family First's Bob Day retained their seats. The number of crossbenchers increased by two to a record 20. The Liberal/National Coalition will require at least nine additional votes to reach a Senate majority, an increase of three. The Liberal and Labor parties agreed to support a motion in the parliament that the first six senators elected in each state would serve a six-year term, while the last six elected would serve a three-year term.

Changes in parliamentary composition

Since the 2016 election, a number of parliamentarians resigned from their seats, while some were disqualified by the High Court of Australia in the parliamentary eligibility crisis as a result of the dual citizenship of some MPs. However, in the cases of disqualified House of Representatives MPs, most of these were returned in resulting by-elections. Some MPs changed their party affiliation or their independent status.

Changes in parliamentary composition

Seat Before Change After Member Party Type Date Date Member Party Vic (Senate) Stephen Conroy Labor Resignation 30 September 2016 25 October 2016 Kimberley Kitching Labor SA (Senate) Bob Day Family First Resignation, disqualification 1 November 2016 19 April 2017 Lucy Gichuhi Family First WA (Senate) Rod Culleton One Nation Departure from party 18 December 2016 Rod Culleton Independent Independent Disqualification 11 January 2017 27 March 2017 Peter Georgiou One Nation SA (Senate) Cory Bernardi Liberal Formation of new party 7 February 2017 Cory Bernardi Conservatives SA (Senate) Lucy Gichuhi Family First Refusal to join party merger 3 May 2017 Lucy Gichuhi Independent WA (Senate) Scott Ludlam Greens Resignation, disqualification 14 July 2017 10 November 2017 Jordon Steele-John Greens Qld (Senate) Larissa Waters Greens 18 July 2017 10 November 2017 Andrew Bartlett Greens WA (Senate) Chris Back Liberal Resignation 31 July 2017 16 August 2017 Slade Brockman Liberal Qld (Senate) Malcolm Roberts One Nation Disqualification 27 October 2017 10 November 2017 Fraser Anning One Nation New England Barnaby Joyce National 2 December 2017 Barnaby Joyce (re-elected) National NSW (Senate) Fiona Nash National 22 December 2017 Jim Molan Liberal SA (Senate) Nick Xenophon Xenophon Team Resignation 31 October 2017 14 November 2017 Rex Patrick Xenophon Team Tas (Senate) Stephen Parry Liberal Resignation, disqualification 2 November 2017 9 February 2018 Richard Colbeck Liberal Bennelong John Alexander Liberal Resignation 11 November 2017 16 December 2017 John Alexander (re-elected) Liberal Tas (Senate) Jacqui Lambie Lambie Network Resignation, disqualification 14 November 2017 9 February 2018 Steve Martin Independent SA (Senate) Skye Kakoschke-Moore Xenophon Team 22 November 2017 16 February 2018 Tim Storer Independent Qld (Senate) Fraser Anning One Nation Departure from party 15 January 2018 Fraser Anning Independent NSW (Senate) Sam Dastyari Labor Resignation 25 January 2018 14 February 2018 Kristina Keneally Labor Batman David Feeney Labor Resignation 1 February 2018 17 March 2018 Ged Kearney Labor SA (Senate) Lucy Gichuhi Independent Party membership 2 February 2018 Lucy Gichuhi Liberal Qld (Senate) George Brandis LNP Resignation 8 February 2018 21 March 2018 Amanda Stoker LNP ACT (Senate) Katy Gallagher Labor Disqualification 9 May 2018 23 May 2018 David Smith Labor Perth Tim Hammond Labor Resignation 10 May 2018 28 July 2018 Patrick Gorman Labor Braddon Justine Keay Labor Resignation Justine Keay (re-elected) Labor Fremantle Josh Wilson Labor Josh Wilson (re-elected) Labor Longman Susan Lamb Labor Susan Lamb (re-elected) Labor Mayo Rebekha Sharkie Centre Alliance 11 May 2018 Rebekha Sharkie (re-elected) Centre Alliance Tas (Senate) Steve Martin Independent Party membership 28 May 2018 Steve Martin National Qld (Senate) Fraser Anning Independent Party membership 4 June 2018 Fraser Anning Katter's Australian NSW (Senate) Brian Burston One Nation Departure from party 14 June 2018 Brian Burston Independent Independent Party membership 18 June 2018 United Australia NSW (Senate) Lee Rhiannon Greens Resignation 15 August 2018 Mehreen Faruqi Greens Qld (Senate) Andrew Bartlett Greens Resignation 27 August 2018 6 September 2018 Larissa Waters Greens Wentworth Malcolm Turnbull Liberal Resignation 31 August 2018 20 October 2018 Kerryn Phelps Independent Qld (Senate) Fraser Anning Katter's Australian Departure from party 25 October 2018 Fraser Anning Independent Chisholm Julia Banks Liberal Departure from party 27 November 2018 Julia Banks Independent Tas (Senate) David Bushby Liberal Resignation 21 January 2019 6 March 2019 Wendy Askew Liberal Vic (Senate) Jacinta Collins Labor Resignation 15 February 2019 Raff Ciccone Labor NSW (Senate) David Leyonhjelm Liberal Democrats Resignation 1 March 2019 20 March 2019 Duncan Spender Liberal Democrats Qld (Senate) Fraser Anning Independent Formation of new party 4 April 2019 Fraser Anning Conservative National Party ACT (Senate) David Smith Labor Resignation 11 April 2019 vacant SA (Senate) Cory Bernardi Conservatives Party deregistration 24 June 2019 Cory Bernardi Independent

Following the parliamentary eligibility crisis, the AEC's form for nomination was updated to ask detailed questions on whether candidates are disqualified under Section 44 of the Constitution of Australia. Three Victorian Liberal candidates had to withdraw based on section 44 issues.

Change of Prime Minister

Main article: 2018 Liberal Party of Australia leadership spills

Following the Liberal Party leadership spill on 24 August 2018, Malcolm Turnbull was replaced as Prime Minister by Scott Morrison. Turnbull resigned from parliament on 31 August, triggering a by-election in his former seat of Wentworth. The by-election was won by independent Kerryn Phelps. This, combined with National MP Kevin Hogan's move to the crossbench and the resignation of MP Julia Banks from the Liberal Party, reduced the government to 73 seats going into the election; a net three-seat deficit.

Further dissatisfaction within the Liberal Party saw a number of centrist and economically-liberal candidates announce that they would nominate as independents in wealthy electorates, with a specific focus on "addressing climate change".