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Tipping-Point Margins (TPM) Model

In United States presidential elections, it can be difficult to properly reflect how decisively the winning candidate actually won. The national popular vote is the most immediately obvious choice, and, in most cases, it is fairly useful. However, a candidate does not need to win the national popular vote to win the election, and this has happened five times in American history. Alternatively, since it is the electoral college that actually decides the election, converting the candidates' electoral votes into percentages of the total number of electoral votes to obtain a winning margin might be better. Nevertheless, though this will always align with the election winner, the fact that most states have used winner-takes-all systems to allocate their electoral votes means that this method will almost always inflate how well a candidate actually did (for example, the EV-percent method would say that Donald Trump won the 2016 election by around 13 points, even though he won Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the states that gave him the presidency, by less than a point each).

Given that neither of these methods truly accurately shows the margin by which a candidate won an election, the table below substitutes in the results from the "tipping-point" states, which are the the states with the smallest margins of victory for the winning candidates that such candidates could not lose without winning the election. As an example, in 2012, if you organized the states won by Obama from the smallest to the largest percent margins of victory for him and then started shifting states to Romney from the smallest margin of victory, Obama would still win until you would get to Colorado; this thus makes Colorado the tipping-point state for the 2012 election, and, given Colorado's results that year, we could thus say that Obama won the election by just over five points. In this way, this system remains tied to the electoral college (thus always aligning with the actual election winner) while also not overstating how well that winner did like simple EV percent shares suggest.

However, given that this deals with the actual percentage results for the tipping-point states, rather than just seeing what particular states they happen to be for each election, there are a few parameters to clarify what is shown below:

• Multi-way presidential elections in which more than two candidates won electoral votes or elections that could have theoretically resulted in an electoral college tie have usually had two or more tipping-point states: one for the candidate who actually one and others for each of the runners-up. For these elections, the states whose results are shown below were chosen based on speculation as to who would have won in contingent elections. Given that the actual composition of the US House with such shifted results cannot be known, the margins shown for these elections cannot be considered as reliable or useful.
• Tipping-point states are also determined based on the pledged electoral vote resulting from the election. Thus, tipping-point states that account for electors that abstained, cast faithless votes, or died beforehand are not used.
• In many cases throughout American history, presidential candidates (especially minor ones) were on the ballot in some states but not others. As such, in order to make the results shown more nationally representative, the percentages of the major candidates are adjusted by multiplying them by the difference between 100% and the total national percentage of the candidates who were not on the ballot in the tipping-point states.
• Lastly, two election in American history, 1800 and 1824, were decided by contingent elections in the US House due to no candidate getting a majority of electoral votes in either election. In these contingent elections, unlike than the electoral college, each state received one vote, with their votes being decided by their delegation of representatives. Ultimately, given the relatively few amount of "voters" in these elections, most state's results within their delegations were quite lopsided, meaning that using tipping-point results would likely serve to obscure, rather than clarify, the actual degree of decisiveness of the winning candidates' victories. As such, the original percent shares of state delegations won by each candidate are shown, though what the tipping-point results would have been has still been provided in parentheses.

Election	Incumbent	Party	First elected	Result	Candidates	Tipping-point state/district & notes (if any)
First Party System
NOTE: Most states during this period did not use direct popular vote systems to elect the president, and, for many of those that did, a substantial portion of their election returns have been lost to time. As such, the tipping-point margins for these elections could only be very roughly determined and are very likely not nearly as useful or reflective of their overall elections as those of subsequent periods.
1788-89	None (New seat)			New seat. New president elected. Independent gain.	▌Y George Washington (Independent) Unopposed	None
1792	George Washington	Independent	1788-89	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y George Washington (Independent) Unopposed	None
1796	George Washington	Independent	1788-89	Incumbent retired. New president elected. Federalist gain.	▌Y John Adams (Federalist) 55.68% ▌Thomas Jefferson (Democratic-Republican) 44.32%	Maryland-2 From 1796 to 1832, Maryland used a district system similar to Nebraska and Maine in the president day to elect electors for president (although, unlike Nebraska or Maine today, no electors were elected statewide).
1800	John Adams	Federalist	1796	Incumbent lost re-election. New president elected. Democratic-Republican gain.	General election: ▌Y Thomas Jefferson (Democratic-Republican) 58.15% ▌John Adams (Federalist) 41.85% Contingent election: ▌Y Thomas Jefferson (Democratic-Republican) 62.50% (60.00%) ▌Aaron Burr (Democratic-Republican) 25.00% (40.00%)	Maryland-7 (general); New Jersey (contingent) See above Based on percent margin, one of New Jersey, New York, or North Carolina would have been the tipping-point state for a Burr victory in the contingent election. New Jersey is listed here as the tipping-point state because only one of its representatives would have had to have switched their votes to give Burr the state, while New York and North Carolina would have needed two each to do so.
1804	Thomas Jefferson	Democratic-Republican	1800	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Thomas Jefferson (Democratic-Republican) 94.59% ▌Charles C. Pinckney (Federalist) 5.30%	Pennsylvania
1808	Thomas Jefferson	Democratic-Republican	1800	Incumbent retired. New president elected. Democratic-Republican hold.	▌Y James Madison (Democratic-Republican) 65.68% ▌Charles C. Pinckney (Federalist) 31.00%	New York New York did not use a popular vote system during this period, instead electing presidential electors through the New York State Legislature. The percentages shown have been adjusted from the partisan composition of the legislature at the time of the election. There are a few districts with lost returns in North Carolina (another state that used a district system as this time) that might have been close enough to have actually been the tipping point. However, as the returns are lost, this can never be determined.
1812	James Madison	Democratic-Republican	1808	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y James Madison (Democratic-Republican) 61.14% ▌DeWitt Clinton (Democratic-Republican) 36.53% ▌Rufus King (Federalist) 2.09%	Pennsylvania
1816	James Madison	Democratic-Republican	1808	Incumbent retired. New president elected. Democratic-Republican hold.	▌Y James Monroe (Democratic-Republican) 70.75% ▌Rufus King (Federalist) 28.99%	Pennsylvania Monroe technically only faced an unpledged slate of electors. However, the counties that voted for this opposing slate were traditionally Federalist counties, and records from the time suggest that, had this slate won, they might have supported King. As a result, the tipping-point percentages for the candidates have only been adjusted with respect to the national vote-share of non-Pennsylvanian independent votes.
1820	James Monroe	Democratic-Republican	1816	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y James Monroe (Democratic-Republican) 97.41%	Maryland-4 See Maryland-2
1824	James Monroe	Democratic-Republican	1816	Incumbent retired. New president elected. Democratic-Republican hold.	General election: ▌Y Andrew Jackson (Democratic-Republican) 37.93% ▌Y John Quincy Adams (Democratic-Republican) 32.18% ▌Y William H. Crawford (Democratic-Republican) 15.71% ▌Henry Clay (Democratic-Republican) 14.17% Contingent election: ▌Y John Quincy Adams (Democratic-Republican) 54.17% (92.31%) ▌Andrew Jackson (Democratic-Republican) 29.17% (7.69%) ▌William H. Crawford (Democratic-Republican) 16.67% (0.00%)	None (general); Massachusetts (contingent) Since no candidate received a majority in the electoral college, it is not possible to determine a tipping-point state for the general election, nor would it provide anything meaningful; as such, the candidates' percent shares of electoral votes have been provided instead. Massachusetts was the tipping-point state for a Jackson victory in the contingent election.
Second Party System
1828	John Quincy Adams	National Republican	1824	Incumbent lost re-election. New president elected. Democratic gain.	▌Y Andrew Jackson (Democratic) 55.86% ▌John Quincy Adams (National Republican) 44.14%	New York-15 New York used a district system to allocate electoral votes in this election.
1832	Andrew Jackson	Democratic	1828	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Andrew Jackson (Democratic) 51.94% ▌Henry Clay (National Republican) 39.63% ▌William Wirt (Anti-Masonic) 7.78%	New Hampshire New Hampshire is the tipping-point state for a Clay victory in which his percentages across the states are universally increased. This crucially includes Vermont, where Clay finished second to a third-party candidate (Wirt), rather than Jackson.
1836	Andrew Jackson	Democratic	1828	Incumbent retired. New president elected. Democratic hold.	▌Y Martin Van Buren (Democratic) 47.82% ▌William Henry Harrison (Whig) 39.72% ▌Hugh Lawson White (Whig) 9.72% ▌Daniel Webster (Whig) 2.74%	New York
1840	Martin Van Buren	Democratic	1836	Incumbent lost re-election. New president elected. Whig gain.	▌Y William Henry Harrison (Whig) 51.74% ▌Martin Van Buren (Democratic) 48.15%	New Jersey
1844	John Tyler	Independent	1841	Incumbent withdrew. New president elected. Democratic gain.	▌Y James K. Polk (Democratic) 48.86% ▌Henry Clay (Whig) 47.81%	New York
1848	James K. Polk	Democratic	1844	Incumbent retired. New president elected. Whig gain.	▌Y Zachary Taylor (Whig) 50.23% ▌Lewis Cass (Democratic) 46.61% ▌Martin Van Buren (Free Soil) 3.06%	Pennsylvania
1852	Millard Fillmore	Whig	1850	Incumbent lost nomination to full term. New president elected. Democratic gain.	▌Y Franklin Pierce (Democratic) 51.16% ▌Winfield Scott (Whig) 46.15%	New York
Third Party System
1856	Franklin Pierce	Democratic	1852	Incumbent lost renomination. New president elected. Democratic hold.	▌Y James Buchanan (Democratic) 50.09% ▌John C. Frémont (Republican) 31.98% ▌Millard Fillmore (Know Nothing) 17.85%	Pennsylvania
1860	James Buchanan	Democratic	1856	Incumbent retired. New president elected. Republican gain.	▌Y Abraham Lincoln (Republican) 53.70% ▌Stephen A. Douglas (Northern Democratic) 23.80% ▌John Bell (Constitutional Union) 13.22% ▌John C. Breckinridge (Southern Democratic) 9.26%	New York In New York, Breckinridge, Douglas, and Bell formed a fusion ticket to have a unified vote against Lincoln. Nevertheless, the 35 fusion elector candidates were not distributed among the participating parties equally, instead with 18 of the electors being for Douglas, 10 for Bell, and 7 for Breckinridge. As such, the adjusted vote-share of the fusion ticket has been divided among the three candidates according to their proportions of electors.
1864	Abraham Lincoln	Republican	1860	Incumbent re-elected as National Union.	▌Y Abraham Lincoln (National Union) 53.58% ▌George B. McClellan (Democratic) 46.39%	Indiana
1868	Andrew Johnson	Democratic	1865	Incumbent lost nomination to full term. New president elected. Republican gain.	▌Y Ulysses S. Grant (Republican) 53.68% ▌Horatio Seymour (Democratic) 46.32%	Arkansas
1872	Ulysses S. Grant	Republican	1868	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Ulysses S. Grant (Republican) 53.94% ▌Horace Greeley (Liberal Republican/Democratic) 45.61%	New Hampshire
1876	Ulysses S. Grant	Republican	1868	Incumbent retired. New president elected. Republican hold.	▌Y Rutherford B. Hayes (Republican) 49.66% ▌Samuel J. Tilden (Democratic) 49.18%	South Carolina
1880	Rutherford B. Hayes	Republican	1876	Incumbent retired. New president elected. Republican hold.	▌Y James A. Garfield (Republican) 50.32% ▌Winfield Scott Hancock (Democratic) 48.42%	New York
1884	Chester A. Arthur	Republican	1881	Incumbent lost nomination to full term. New president elected. Democratic gain.	▌Y Grover Cleveland (Democratic) 48.21% ▌James G. Blaine (Republican) 48.11%	New York
1888	Grover Cleveland	Democratic	1884	Incumbent lost re-election. New president elected. Republican gain.	▌Y Benjamin Harrison (Republican) 49.28% ▌Grover Cleveland (Democratic) 48.19%	New York
1892	Benjamin Harrison	Republican	1888	Incumbent lost re-election. New president elected. Democratic gain.	▌Y Grover Cleveland (Democratic) 48.68% ▌Benjamin Harrison (Republican) 45.60% ▌John Bidwell (Prohibition) 2.95% ▌James B. Weaver (Populist) 2.53%	Illinois
Fourth Party System
1896	Grover Cleveland	Democratic	1884 1888 (defeated) 1892	Incumbent retired. New member elected. Republican gain.	▌Y William McKinley (Republican) 51.85% ▌William Jennings Bryan (Democratic) 47.08%	Ohio
1900	William McKinley	Republican	1896	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y William McKinley (Republican) 52.83% ▌William Jennings Bryan (Democratic) 44.44%	Illinois
1904	Theodore Roosevelt	Republican	1901	Incumbent elected to full term.	▌Y Theodore Roosevelt (Republican) 56.67% ▌Alton B. Parker (Democratic) 38.05%	New Jersey
1908	Theodore Roosevelt	Republican	1901	Incumbent retired. New member elected. Republican hold.	▌Y William Howard Taft (Republican) 52.97% ▌William Jennings Bryan (Democratic) 42.81%	West Virginia
1912	William Howard Taft	Republican	1908	Incumbent lost re-election. New member elected. Democratic gain.	▌Y Woodrow Wilson (Democratic) 41.26% ▌William Howard Taft (Republican) 28.67% ▌Theodore Roosevelt (Progressive) 24.55% ▌Eugene V. Debs (Socialist) 3.99%	New York
1916	Woodrow Wilson	Democratic	1912	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Woodrow Wilson (Democratic) 46.53% ▌Charles Evans Hughes (Republican) 46.15%	California
1920	Woodrow Wilson	Democratic	1912	Incumbent retired. New member elected. Republican gain.	▌Y Warren G. Harding (Republican) 63.15% ▌James M. Cox (Democratic) 32.36%	Rhode Island
1924	Calvin Coolidge	Republican	1923	Incumbent elected to full term.	▌Y Calvin Coolidge (Republican) 46.93% ▌John W. Davis (Democratic) 29.48% ▌Robert M. La Follette (Progressive) 22.91%	Nebraska
1928	Calvin Coolidge	Republican	1923	Incumbent retired. New member elected. Republican hold.	▌Y Herbert Hoover (Republican) 56.82% ▌Al Smith (Democratic) 42.20%	Illinois
Fifth Party System
1932	Herbert Hoover	Republican	1928	Incumbent lost re-election. New member elected. Democratic gain.	▌Y Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democratic) 57.56% ▌Herbert Hoover (Republican) 39.89%	Iowa
1936	Franklin D. Roosevelt	Democratic	1932	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democratic) 57.69% ▌Alf Landon (Republican) 37.25%	Ohio
1940	Franklin D. Roosevelt	Democratic	1932	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democratic) 53.17% ▌Wendell Willkie (Republican) 46.27%	Pennsylvania
1944	Franklin D. Roosevelt	Democratic	1932	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Franklin D. Roosevelt (Republican) 52.06% ▌Thomas E. Dewey (Republican) 47.07%	New York
1948	Harry S. Truman	Democratic	1945	Incumbent elected to full term.	▌Y Harry S. Truman (Democratic) 47.66% ▌Thomas E. Dewey (Republican) 46.85% ▌Strom Thurmond (Dixiecrat) 2.41%	Illinois
1952	Harry S. Truman	Democratic	1945	Incumbent retired. New member elected. Republican gain.	▌Y Dwight D. Eisenhower (Republican) 55.40% ▌Adlai Stevenson II (Democratic) 43.93%	Michigan
1956	Dwight D. Eisenhower	Republican	1952	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Dwight D. Eisenhower (Republican) 56.89% ▌Adlai Stevenson II (Democratic) 42.44%	Florida
1960	Dwight D. Eisenhower	Republican	1952	Incumbent term-limited. New member elected. Democratic gain.	▌Y John F. Kennedy (Democratic) 49.66% ▌Richard Nixon (Republican) 48.86%	New Jersey
1964	Lyndon B. Johnson	Democratic	1963	Incumbent elected to full term.	▌Y Lyndon B. Johnson (Democratic) 61.93% ▌Barry Goldwater (Republican) 37.34%	Washington
1968	Lyndon B. Johnson	Democratic	1963	Incumbent withdrew from renomination. New member elected. Republican gain.	▌Y Richard Nixon (Republican) 45.08% ▌Hubert Humphrey (Democratic) 42.80% ▌George Wallace (American Independent) 11.77%	Ohio
1972	Richard Nixon	Republican	1968	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Richard Nixon (Republican) 59.45% ▌George McGovern (Democratic) 37.95%	Ohio
1976	Gerald Ford	Republican	1974	Incumbent lost election to full term. New member elected. Democratic gain.	▌Y Jimmy Carter (Democratic) 49.36% ▌Gerald Ford (Republican) 47.70%	Wisconsin
Sixth Party System
1980	Jimmy Carter	Democratic	1976	Incumbent lost re-election. New president elected. Republican gain.	▌Y Ronald Reagan (Republican) 49.55% ▌Jimmy Carter (Democratic) 41.64% ▌John B. Anderson (Independent) 7.29%	Illinois
1984	Ronald Reagan	Republican	1980	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Ronald Reagan (Republican) 59.20% ▌Walter Mondale (Democratic) 40.22%	Michigan
1988	Ronald Reagan	Republican	1980	Incumbent term-limited. New president elected. Republican hold.	▌Y George H. W. Bush (Republican) 53.43% ▌Michael Dukakis (Democratic) 45.55%	Michigan
1992	George H. W. Bush	Republican	1988	Incumbent lost re-election. New president elected. Democratic gain.	▌Y Bill Clinton (Democratic) 47.02% ▌George H. W. Bush (Republican) 42.37% ▌Ross Perot (Independent) 10.08%	Tennessee
1996	Bill Clinton	Democratic	1992	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Bill Clinton (Democratic) 48.76% ▌Bob Dole (Republican) 39.64% ▌Ross Perot (Reform) 9.48%	Pennsylvania
2000	Bill Clinton	Democratic	1992	Incumbent term-limited. New president elected. Republican gain.	▌Y George W. Bush (Republican) 48.82% ▌Al Gore (Democratic) 48.81%	Florida
2004	George W. Bush	Republican	2000	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y George W. Bush (Republican) 50.53% ▌John Kerry (Democratic) 48.44%	Ohio
2008	George W. Bush	Republican	2000	Incumbent term-limited. New president elected. Democratic gain.	▌Y Barack Obama (Democratic) 53.83% ▌John McCain (Republican) 44.31%	Colorado
2012	Barack Obama	Democratic	2008	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Barack Obama (Democratic) 51.40% ▌Mitt Romney (Republican) 46.05%	Colorado
Seventh Party System (unofficial)
2016	Barack Obama	Democratic	2008	Incumbent term-limited. New president elected. Republican gain.	▌Y Donald Trump (Republican) 46.93% ▌Hillary Clinton (Democratic) 46.16%	Wisconsin
2020	Donald Trump	Republican	2016	Incumbent lost re-election. New president elected. Democratic gain.	▌Y Joe Biden (Democratic) 49.25% ▌Donald Trump (Republican) 48.62%	Wisconsin
2024	Joe Biden	Democratic	2020	Incumbent withdrew from renomination.	▌Kamala Harris (Democratic) ▌Donald Trump (Republican)	TBD

Closest elections

Elections where the margin of victory was under 1%:

1. 2000 (FL), 0.009%
2. 1884 (NY), 0.10%
3. 1916 (CA), 0.38%
4. 1876 (SC), 0.48%
5. 2020 (WI), 0.63%
6. 2016 (WI), 0.77%
7. 1960 (NJ), 0.80%
8. 1948 (IL), 0.81%

Elections where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5%:

1. 1844 (NY), 1.05%
2. 1888 (NY), 1.09%
3. 1976 (WI), 1.66%
4. 1880 (NY), 1.90%
5. 2004 (OH), 2.09%
6. 1968 (OH), 2.28%
7. 1892 (IL), 3.08%
8. 1840 (NJ), 3.59%
9. 1848 (PA), 3.62%
10. 1992 (TN), 4.65%
11. 1896 (OH), 4.77%
12. 1944 (NY), 4.99%